Coalition formation in fisheries with potential regime shift

A system can undergo rapid regime shift in which the growth of natural resources suddenly and permanently declines. We examine how the threat of such a shift alters the strategic management of a common pool renewable resource. We consider exogenous and endogenous threats and examine their effects on both incentives to join a coalition and harvest decisions. We find that an exogenous threat of reduced resource growth may cause the coalition to grow in size, and, perhaps of most interest, we identify conditions under which members of the stable coalition reduce harvest while non-members increase harvest in response to the threat. In contrast, an exogenous threat of total stock collapse may destabilize coalitions, resulting in higher harvest from former members, but reduced harvest by non-members. When the threat of either type of shift is endogenous, the threat of regime shift can induce stable coalitions with more than two members. In particular, we identify cases in which the first best (full cooperation) is sustained as an equilibrium outcome. Finally, we find that the relation between the magnitude of the shift and the size of stable coalitions may be negative.     

Modeling approach to regime shifts of primary production in shallow coastal ecosystems

Pristine coastal shallow systems are usually dominated by extensive meadows of seagrass species, which are assumed to take advantage of nutrient supply from sediment. An increasing nutrient input is thought to favour phytoplankton, epiphytic microalgae, as well as opportunistic ephemeral macroalgae that coexist with seagrasses. The primary cause of shifts and succession in the macrophyte community is the increase of nutrient load to water; however, temperature plays also an important role. A competition model between rooted seagrass (Zostera marina), macroalgae (Ulva sp.), and phytoplankton has been developed to analyse the succession of primary producer communities in these systems. Successions of dominance states, with different resilience characteristics, are found when modifying the input of nutrients and the seasonal temperature and light intensity forcing.     

Dynamic resource management under the risk of regime shifts

This paper provides a framework through which a dynamic resource management problem with potential regime shifts can be analyzed both in a strategic environment and from a social planner?s perspective. Based on a fairly general model, a condition for a precautionary policy is discussed. By applying the framework to a common-property resource problem with a linear production technology, we illustrate how the qualitative as well as quantitative nature of equilibrium is altered due to the possibility of regime shifts. In particular, when the risk is endogenously affected by the players? behavior, potential regime shifts can facilitate the precautionary management of resources as long as the resource stock is in good shape. As the stock of resource becomes scarce, however, the precautionary effect vanishes and more aggressive resource exploitation emerges. The impacts of irreversibility on the equilibrium behavior are highlighted. It is also shown that there can exist a resource-depletion trap in which a regime shift, once it happens, triggers a continuous decline of resource stock no matter which regime materializes in the subsequent periods.     

Complementarity,impatience, and the resilience of natural-resource-dependent economies

We study how society's preferences affect the resilience of economies that depend on more than one type of natural resource. In particular, we analyze whether the degree of complementarity of natural resources in consumer preferences may give rise to multiple steady states and path dependence even when resources are managed optimally. We find that, for a given social discount rate, society tends to be less willing to buffer exogenous shocks if resource good are complements in consumption than if they are substitutes. The stronger the complementarity between the various types of natural resources, the less resilient the economy is, and even more so the higher is the social discount rate.     

Mapping ecosystem services potential in Lithuania

This research presents a geographic information systems (GIS)-based method for ecosystem services (ES) potential assessment in a case study for the Lithuanian national territory. The ES potential was assessed for 31 CORINE land-cover classes (CLC2006) together with 31 ES categorized into regulating, provisioning and cultural ES. An expert-based ranking approach using a two-dimensional ES matrix and a geospatial analysis was applied to determine total ES potential, spatial patterns and relations among multiple ES. Results showed that forest areas had the highest potential for ES delivery whereas ES potential in urban areas was lowest. The spatial autocorrelation of regulating and cultural ES were dispersed while provisioning ES were significantly clustered. The principal component analysis (PCA) identified five factors with distinctive geospatial distribution: Factor 1 – forest areas, Factor 2 – aquatic environments, Factor 3 – livestock farming and energy production, Factor 4 – agricultural food production and Factor 5 – mineral extraction sites. The plotting of Factors 1 and 2 accounted for 72.81% of variance and identified three ES bundles composed by specific ES types: Bundle 1 – forest ecosystems, Bundle 2 – marine and freshwater ecosystems and Bundle 3 – mixed provisioning ecosystems. Trade-offs occur between regulating and cultural ES against the provisioning ES crop production and livestock farming. We conclude that the presented ES assessment can support decision-makers in the development of strategies for natural resources management at national and regional level, support the identification of trade-offs and synergies among ES types and foster ES research in Lithuania.     

Development of an integrated decision-support model for density management within jack pine stand-types

The objectives of this study were to (1) develop a modular-based structural stand density management model (SSDMM) and corresponding algorithmic analogue for natural (naturally regenerated stands without a history of density regulation) and managed (naturally or artificially regenerated stands with a history of density regulation) jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) stand-types, and (2) demonstrate the utility of the model in operational density management decision-making. Employing an Ontario-centric database consisting of 262 and 221 tree-list measurements obtained from 91 and 139 permanent and temporary sample plots situated within natural and managed stand-types, respectively, combined with data derived from density control experiments and sawmill simulation studies, six integrated estimation modules were constructed: Module A consisted of the parameterization of the core yield–density relationships which together drive the entire yield prediction system (e.g., size–density relationships for quadratic mean diameter, dominant height, mean volume, and mean live crown ratio, and site-specific height–age relationships); Module B consisted of the development of Weibull-based parameter prediction equation systems for recovering diameter distributions and composite height-diameter equations for height estimation; Module C consisted of the development of composite taper equations for predicting log products and stem volumes; Module D consisted of the development of allometric-based composite biomass equations for each above-ground component (bark, stem, branch and foliage) from which biomass estimates and associated carbon-based equivalents were derived; Module E consisted of the development of sawmill-specific composite equations for estimating chip and lumber volumes; and Module F consisted of the development of composite equations for estimating wood density and mean maximum branch diameter. The utility of the model was demonstrated by simultaneously contrasting a set of complex density management regimes (commercial thinning and variable planting densities) in terms of a broad array of stand-level yield outcomes and performance measures: overall productivity, log-product distributions, biomass production and carbon yields, recoverable products (chip and lumber volumes) and associated monetary values, economic efficiency, duration of optimal site occupancy, structural stability, and fibre attributes (wood density and mean maximum branch diameter). In summary, the modular-based SSDMM provides the analytical foundation for evaluating the likelihood of realizing a multitude of stand-level objectives when designing density control regimes for jack pine stand-types.     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Realizing the potential of GIS in community-based management of protected areas

SUMMARY

This paper explores the roles GIS technology can play in support of land management, focusing in particular on its application in protected environments such as Biosphere Reserves. These ecologically significant areas present complex planning situations since, unlike areas set aside solely for conservation, they must continue to support human populations that depend on natural resources for their economic and social well being. In situations such as marginal tropical locations, land managers often face major economic and political disincentives to the conservation of precious natural resources. The necessity for community participation and local expertise in the planning process becomes increasingly critical as GIS evolves from a basic presentation aid for spatial data to a synthesizing problem-solving tool. Coupled with enhanced community participation is the opportunity for greater education of stakeholders; the potential for GIS to serve as a medium for information gathering and dissemination is discussed. A case study in the Sierra de Manantlán Biosphere Reserve (SMBR), México, is presented.     

Comparative aspects of mountain land resources management and sustainability: Case studies from India and Canada

India and Canada share a common heritage in natural resources management. Both have a colonial background, settlers and indigenous peoples; there is a history of management agencies with utilitarian attitudes, and a history of treating public lands as commodities for commerce rather than as resources for local livelihoods. This historical context guided the overall goal of this study, which was policy development for the sustainable use of mountain environments. Interviews, workshops and seminars were held with local people and resource management professionals in a comparative case study in two regions; the Kullu area in Himachal Pradesh, India and the Arrow Lakes area in British Columbia, Canada. The paper is organized around two main objectives of the work relating to the successes and failures of mountain environment resource management policies and the development of criteria for assessing and monitoring sustainability in mountain environments, in particular, criteria for examining relevant crosscultural dimensions of sustainable development in these environments. By way of conclusion the paper considers further ways in which traditional resource policy development and implementation is being challenged by changing values and priorities; ecosystems management with people; and co-management and public participation.     

Integrated shoreline management and tourism development on the cross-border World Heritage Site: A case study from the Curonian spit (Lithuania/Russia)

The varied and very dynamic landscape with a high biological diversity is a distinctive feature of the Curonian spit at the regional scale. Throughout the 20th century the main morphodynamic trend in the littoral of the Curonian spit was shoreline grading on the lagoon side, whereas on the marine side the increasing erosion at the foot of the spit, and increasing accretion at the head of the spit prevailed. The results of a discriminant analysis (Wilkes’ λ = 0.001626 and F = 29.267 when p < 0.001) show that sites with prevailing erosion, accretion and sediment input from the drifting dunes form regular inter-related spatial structures in the littoral with distinctive resulting discontinuities of the sediment drift along the lagoon coast. Dune littoral cells are characterized by Aeolian sediment input and distribution ‘down-drift’, (usually northwards) from the source. The most likely changes in the current development trends of the lagoon shore zone of the Curonian spit are related to expected climate changes and further slowing down of the dune drift. The probability of storms and ice-drift events, and their impact on coasts is expected to increase as a result of climate change. The dune advance will gradually slow down, and with it, the sand input to the coastal zone will decline. In this paper, we define integrated shoreline management as a system of long-term shoreline management measures, which is based on a littoral cell approach and aimed at harmonizing human activity in the coastal zone with the natural development of the shoreline. We propose an integrated management program for the lagoon shoreline of the Curonian spit, which is site-specific for each littoral cell as a coastal management unit. Drifting dunes and seaside beaches are the natural amenities, which are best known and best appreciated on the Curonian spit by 49% of the respondents representing the total Lithuanian population. A responsible tourism development should be considered as the key means for proper appreciation of the drifting dunes and natural coasts by society, which means to acknowledge and cherish the aesthetic and conservation values of dune and coastal landscapes of the Curonian spit as a World Heritage Site. There are at least two pre-conditions for this: (1) to provide visitors with sufficient information about diverse values and functions of the Curonian dunes and coasts within a broader regional and global heritage conservation context; (2) to enable tourists to enjoy the most impressive dune and coastal landscapes at close range. In this paper we propose to encourage active dune tourism, to reintroduce grazing into the Curonian dune areas, to restore and to preserve the most impressive landscapes of the highest white drifting dunes by bringing the blown out sand from the leeward foot of the dunes back to the crest artificially.     

Anthropogenic factors and their potential impacts on the sustainable development of Abu Dhabi's terrestrial biological resources

SUMMARY

Since the discovery of oil, the United Arab Emirates has undergone a process of rapid development, increasingly affecting the ecosystems of the country. Limited scientific literature dealing with these ecosystems is available, although a process of comprehensive ecological research has been initiated over the last few years. Further information on the soils, vegetation, fauna and climate are required in order to initiate a process of sustainable use of natural resources.

Abu Dhabi Emirate was surveyed for anthropogenic factors in its habitats using an off-road vehicle, a global positioning system (GPS) and satellite imagery. The emirate was divided into six geomorphological units. Livestock was found to be the most common anthropogenic factor and is believed to have caused degradation of the natural vegetation. Agriculture, silviculture and urbanization were common and caused habitat loss and fragmentation. Rubbish dumping, earth moving and car tracks were also widespread, whereas air pollution and fences were limited. Four of Abu Dhabi's geomorphological units were classified as low-impact zones, two as low- to medium-impact zones and one as a medium- to major-impact zone. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) and detailed ecological research were suggested as future mechanisms to implement sustainable development, and livestock control was suggested as a tool for habitat restoration.     

丘陵红壤开发的水土资源保护及农业产业化经营模式

以湖南省桃源县为例,针对目前丘陵红壤开发存在的主要问题,在探明季节性干旱成因和发生规律、水资源合理调蓄利用依据的基础上,提出了红壤丘陵区抗御季节性干旱的水分管理对策和主要措施;通过不同经营模式的水土资源动态观测、分析,提出了红壤丘陵区土壤允许流失值应≤200 t·km-2·a-1、相应的降水径流系数<0.25 等水土资源协调发展的关键技术指标,并在丘陵红壤坡地上建立了土壤侵蚀模数<100 t·km-2·a-1 的“土壤-水分-生物”资源互利型的高效利用模式。同时,以市场为导向,优化产业结构为中心,应用上述研究成果,建立了茶叶、苎麻、果业、庭园高效生态农业等四大科技先导型的产业化规模经营体系,为我国红壤丘陵区的农业产业化开发提供实用模式与示范样板。     

The optimal harvest and management in the models of animal populations

We extended zero-cost optimization model for population of domestic animals. Also the model of hiring of labor in cattle-breeding farm is constructed and investigated.     

Optimal Marking of Threatened Species to Balance Benefits of Information with Impacts of Marking

Abstract: Marking animals so that they are uniquely identifiable provides information that may assist conservation efforts. Nevertheless, some methods used to mark animals can be harmful. We used mathematical methods to assess the trade‐off between the impact of marking threatened species and the value of the information gained. We considered the case where 2 management strategies, each aiming to improve a species' survival rate, are implemented in an experimental phase. The results of the experiment were applied in a postexperimental management phase. We expressed the expected number of survivors in both phases mathematically, accounting for any mortality caused by the experiment, and determined the proportion of animals to mark to maximize this number. The optimal number of animals to mark increased with the number of individuals available for the experiment and with the number of individuals to be managed in the future. The optimal solution was to mark only 25% of the animals when there were 1000 individuals available for the experiment, the results were used to manage 2000 individuals, and marking caused mortality of 1%. Fewer animals were marked when there were fewer animals in either phase or when marking caused higher mortality. In the case of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix), the optimal proportion to mark was <1 if the mortality rate was >0.15%–1%, with the threshold depending on the number of animals in the experimental and postexperimental phases. The trade‐off between gaining more information about a species and possibly harming individuals of that species by marking them is difficult to assess subjectively. We show how to determine objectively the optimal proportion of animals to mark to enhance the management of threatened species.     

Methodological integration for sustainable natural resource management beyond field/farm level: lessons from the ecoregional initiative for the humid and sub-humid tropics of Asia

SUMMARY

Integrated natural resources management (INRM) has to address both the livelihood goals of farmers and the ecological sustainability of agroecosystems and natural resources. Under the Ecoregional Initiative for the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics of Asia — Ecor(1)Asia — one major set of activities has been the development of approaches, methodologies, and tools to meet the challenges of INRM research for sustainable agricultural development. Examples provided illustrate the role of these methodologies in the three main phases of knowledge development for improving INRM impact: knowledge generation, knowledge capitalization, and knowledge mobilization. The methodologies are designed for better integration across disciplines, spatial scales, and hierarchical levels of social organization. Attempts are made to quantify trade-offs between biophysical sustainability and socio-economic considerations. The case is made for using these methodologies in a more complementary manner to help bridge the topdown and bottom-up approaches in INRM. Inherent in the developing and implementing of these methodologies is the forging of partnerships and fostering linkages with multiple stakeholders, as well as using the knowledge base and integrative tools as communication platforms.     

Quantifying current and potential contributions of Australian indigenous peoples to threatened species management

Formal engagement of indigenous peoples in conservation is increasing globally and leads to multiple benefits to communities while contributing to national and international biodiversity goals and obligations. This and ongoing declines in biodiversity have led to calls to increase opportunities for indigenous people to engage in managing their estates. However, there is no overarching understanding of indigenous peoples’ involvement in conservation, which limits the identification of new opportunities. We amalgamated information across governments and large nongovernmental organizations in the megadiverse country of Australia to quantify the involvement of indigenous people in management of threatened species. We identified 153 Australian‐based projects undertaken by different indigenous groups around the nation in 2015 and 2016 that included explicit funds for management of threatened species or threatened ecosystems. Most were in remote parts of western and northern Australia. Almost one‐quarter of all threatened animals and 2% of threatened plants were the subject of some formal conservation action by indigenous people. Occurrence records for 1574 threatened species showed that 823 (89.2%) of 923 species recorded on indigenous peoples’ lands were not listed in management projects. This gap may represent new opportunities for conservation initiatives. Because at least 59.5% of Australia's threatened species occur on indigenous peoples’ lands, efforts to build appropriate and effective indigenous conservation alliances are vital. However, it is also important to recognize that threatened species are part of complex social, ecological, economic and cultural systems, and to achieve successful outcomes requires consideration of indigenous peoples’ priorities, rights, and obligations and relationships with their traditionally owned land and sea.     

推荐管理措施情景下黄淮海地区旱地土壤固碳潜力模拟研究——以河南省获嘉县为例

农田土壤固碳不仅可以减缓气候变化,而且能够提高土壤质量。推荐管理措施,如少、免耕和秸秆还田等,具有促进农田土壤有机碳（SOC）增加的巨大潜力。旱地占中国农田面积的70%以上,在固定大气CO2方面可以发挥重要作用。本研究基于黄淮海地区的一个旱地土壤肥力长期监测点数据并运用Century模型模拟了监测期间（1998～2007）土壤有机碳动态变化。在此基础上,设计了1种基础管理措施情景和4种推荐管理措施情景并模拟了它们未来20年的固碳潜力。模拟结果表明,监测期间监测点土壤有机碳密度增加2.72 Mg.hm-2,年均增加0.27 Mg.hm-2。土壤有机碳的增加主要是因为氮肥施用量的增加。模型验证结果表明,Century模型很好地模拟了监测点土壤有机碳的动态变化。各推荐管理措施均具有较大的固碳潜力,其中50%秸秆还田是比少、免耕更有效的固碳措施,而少耕＋50%秸秆还田的固碳潜力最大。因此,在黄淮海地区旱地推广实施推荐管理措施是促进农田土壤固碳的有效策略,有助于减缓大气CO2浓度升高和保障国家粮食安全。     

IUCN保护区分类系统与中国自然保护区分类标准的比较

通过对世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)和我国分类系统的比较,提出应该根据我国生物多样性、自然及其相关文化资源保护和维持的现状及特点,参照IUCN保护区分类系统,尽快制定出我国新的保护区分类系统。新分类系统应该以保护区主要管理目标为基本依据,同时综合考虑保护对象的特点及人类干扰程度来确定保护区类型,从而促进保护区的规范管理和进一步发展,实现自然保护与可持续发展的双重目标。     

Untangling outcomes of de jure and de facto community‐based management of natural resources

We systematically reviewed the literature on the tragedy of the commons and common‐property resources. We segregated studies by legal management regimes (de jure regimes) and management that develops in practice (de facto regimes) to understand how the structure of regime formation affects the outcome of community management on sustainability of resource use. De facto regimes, developed within the community, are more likely to have positive impacts on the resource. However, de facto regimes are fragile and not resilient in the face of increased population pressure and unregulated markets, and de facto management regimes are less successful where physical exclusion of external agents from resources is more difficult. Yet, formalization or imposition of de jure management regimes can have complicated impacts on sustainability. The imposition of de jure regimes usually has a negative outcome when existing de facto regimes operate at larger scales than the imposed de jure regime. In contrast, de jure regimes have largely positive impacts when the de facto regimes operate at scales smaller than the overlying de jure regimes. Formalization may also be counterproductive because of elite capture and the resulting de facto privatization (that allows elites to effectively exclude others) or de facto open access (where the disenfranchised may resort to theft and elites cannot effectively exclude them). This underscores that although the global movement to formalize community‐management regimes may address some forms of inequity and may produce better outcomes, it does not ensure resource sustainability and may lead to greater marginalization of users. Comparison of governance systems that differentiate between initiatives that legitimize existing de facto regimes and systems that create new de facto regimes, investigations of new top‐down de jure regimes, and studies that further examine different approaches to changing de jure regimes to de facto regimes are avenues for further inquiry.