Restricted adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling can be a useful design for sampling rare and patchy populations. With this design the initial sample size is fixed but the size of the final sample (and total sampling effort) cannot be predicted prior to sampling. For some populations the final sample size can be quite variable depending on the level of patchiness. Restricted adaptive cluster sampling is a proposed modification where a limit is placed on the sample size prior to sampling and quadrats are selected sequentially for the initial sample size. As a result there is less variation in the final sample size and the total sampling effort can be predicted with some certainty, which is impor- tant for many ecological studies. Estimates of density are biased with the restricted design but under some circumstances the bias can be estimated well by bootstrapping. © Rapid Science 1998     

Halton iterative partitioning: spatially balanced sampling via partitioning

A new spatially balanced sampling design for environmental surveys is introduced, called Halton iterative partitioning (HIP). The design draws sample locations that are well spread over the study area. Spatially balanced designs are known to be efficient when surveying natural resources because nearby locations tend to be similar. The HIP design uses structural properties of the Halton sequence to partition a resource into nested boxes. Sample locations are then drawn from specific boxes in the partition to ensure spatial diversity. The method is conceptually simple and computationally efficient, draws spatially balanced samples in two or more dimensions and uses standard design-based estimators. Furthermore, HIP samples have an implicit ordering that can be used to define spatially balanced over-samples. This feature is particularly useful when sampling natural resources because we can dynamically add spatially balanced units from the over-sample to the sample as non-target or inaccessible units are discovered. We use several populations to show that HIP sampling draws spatially balanced samples and gives precise estimates of population totals.     

Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.     

Methods for estimating peak physiological performance and correlating performance measures

Estimates of animal performance often use the maximum of a small number of laboratory trials, a method which has several statistical disadvantages. Sample maxima always underestimate the true maximum performance, and the degree of the bias depends on sample size. Here, we suggest an alternative approach that involves estimating a specific performance quantile (e.g., the 0.90 quantile). We use the information on within-individual variation in performance to obtain a sampling distribution for the residual performance measures; we use this distribution to estimate a desired performance quantile for each individual. We illustrate our approach using simulations and with data on sprint speed in lizards. The quantile method has several advantages over the sample maximum: it reduces or eliminates bias, it uses all of the data from each individual, and its accuracy is independent of sample size. Additionally, we address the estimation of correlations between two different performance measures, such as sample maxima, quantiles, or means. In particular, because of sampling variability, we propose that the correlation of sample means does a better job estimating the correlation of population maxima than the estimator which is the correlation of sample maxima.     

Adaptive two-stage one-per-stratum sampling

We briefly describe adaptive cluster sampling designs in which the initial sample is taken according to a Markov chain one-per-stratum design (Breidt, 1995) and one or more secondary samples are taken within strata if units in the initial sample satisfy a given condition C. An empirical study of the behavior of the estimation procedure is conducted for three small artificial populations for which adaptive sampling is appropriate. The specific sampling strategy used in the empirical study was a single random-start systematic sample with predefined systematic samples within strata when the initially sampled unit in that stratum satisfies C. The bias of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator for this design is usually very small when adaptive sampling is conducted in a population for which it is suited. In addition, we compare the behavior of several alternative estimators of the standard error of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the population total. The best estimator of the standard error is population-dependent but it is not unreasonable to use the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the variance. Unfortunately, the distribution of the estimator is highly skewed hence the usual approach of constructing confidence intervals assuming normality cannot be used here.     

Limited gene flow in the brooding coral Favia fragum (Esper, 1797)

Understanding population connectivity in corals is particularly important as these organisms are increasingly threatened by abiotic and biotic factors. This study examined the population genetic structure of the brooding coral Favia fragum across four locations in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic using mitochondrial and nuclear markers. Morphological features were also compared to test whether genetic diversity corresponds with skeletal morphology. When comparing across distantly related Caribbean and Bermudian locations, F _ST values were high and significant, indicating strong genetic structure. At a local scale, significant genetic structure was found among reefs in Panama, while no genetic structure was found among reefs within Barbados, Bermuda or Jamaica. Surprisingly, a single haplotype for each of the three markers examined was found in Bermuda, where samples varied significantly from all other locations in three out of four morphological features analyzed. These data indicate that gene flow of F. fragum may occur locally among reefs but is highly restricted at distant locations. Furthermore, isolated populations, such as that of Bermuda, must be self-seeding to maintain the observed genetic uniformity.     

A multi-locus genetic assignment technique to assess sources of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Agaricia agaricites</Emphasis> larvae on coral reefs

Assignment of individuals to populations based upon genetic data is an important ecological problem that requires many polymorphic markers, often more than are available using single locus techniques. To demonstrate the utility of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) in studying larval dispersal and recruitment in coral populations, two sets of AFLP primers were used to genotype colonies of the coral Agaricia agaricites Linnaeus from three widely separated geographic locations: the Bahamas (23°28′N, 75°42′W) and Key Largo, Florida (24°55′N, 80°31′W—two sites separated by 12 km) in 1995, and the Flower Garden Banks (FGB) in the Gulf of Mexico (27°55′N,93°36′W) in 1997. In addition to adult samples from each site, recruits were collected from settling plates placed on the East FGB for 1 year (1997–1998). The AFLP technique yielded 45 polymorphic markers. An analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed significant genetic differences among the four adult populations, even between the two Key Largo sites. The recruits were significantly different from all adult populations except those from the FGB. Discriminant function analysis and the program AFLPOP were used to assign individuals to populations. Using the adult AFLP-banding patterns to build the statistical models, both procedures correctly assigned the majority of adults to their respective populations in simulations and assigned all but one of the recruits to the Flower Garden population from where they were collected . The AFLP technique provides a simple and adaptable population assignment method for studying recruitment processes in A. agaricites and other coral species. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

Estimator bias and efficiency for adaptive cluster sampling with order statistics and a stopping rule

Practical problems facing adaptive cluster sampling with order statistics (acsord) are explored using Monte Carlo simulation for three simulated fish populations and two known waterfowl populations. First, properties of an unbiased Hansen-Hurwitz (HH) estimator and a biased alternative Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator are evaluated. An increase in the level of population aggregation or the initial sample size increases the efficiencies of the two acsord estimators. For less aggregated fish populations, the efficiencies decrease as the order statistic parameter r (the number of units about which adaptive sampling is carried out) increases; for the highly aggregated fish and waterfowl populations, they increase with r. Acsord is almost always more efficient than simple random sampling for the highly aggregated populations. Positive bias is observed for the HT estimator, with the maximum bias usually occurring at small values of r. Secondly, a stopping rule at the Sth iteration of adaptive sampling beyond the initial sampling unit was applied to the acsord design to limit the otherwise open-ended sampling effort. The stopping rule induces relatively high positive bias to the HH estimator if the level of the population aggregation is high, the stopping level S is small, and r is large. The bias of HT is not very sensitive to the stopping rule and its bias is often reduced by the stopping rule at smaller values of r. For more aggregated populations, the stopping rule often reduces the efficiencies of the estimators compared to the non-stopping-rule scheme, but acsord still remains more efficient than simple random sampling. Despite its bias and lack of theoretical grounding, the HT estimator is usually more efficient than the HH estimator. In the stopping rule case, the HT estimator is preferable, because its bias is less sensitive to the stopping level.     

Spatial variability in reproductive cycle of the gorgonians <Emphasis Type="Italic">Paramuricea clavata</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eunicella singularis</Emphasis> (Anthozoa,Octocorallia) in the Western Mediterranean Sea

Paramuricea clavata (Risso, 1826) and Eunicella singularis (Esper, 1794) are the most representative gorgonian species in hard bottoms sublittoral communities in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Reproductive cycles of two populations of both species were studied in two distinct locations approximately 600 km apart (Medes Islands and Cape of Palos), in order to assess interpopulation variability on a relevant geographic scale. Seasonal variation of lipid concentration levels in the gorgonian tissue was used as a tool to quantify energy storage by each studied population in order to explain possible interpopulation differences in gonadal output. Sex ratio in Medes Islands populations of both species was 1:1, while in Cape of Palos sex ratio was significantly male biased (1:7) in P. clavata, and female biased (1.7:1) in E. singularis populations. Spawning timing occurred in all cases coinciding with a marked increase in sea-water temperature in spring, and after the most successful feeding season, but comparing localities there was a clear temporal shift in the time of gametes release, appearing well linked to the shift in sea-water temperature rising in spring in both sites at the depth where populations are placed. Therefore, in this study the temperature appears as the main synchronizing factor of gonadal development within these populations. Significant differences in gonadal volume per polyp were found in both species owing mainly to differences in the number of gonads per polyp between populations, with Cape of Palos populations displaying higher values in both studied species, suggesting that the exposition to different local conditions may be reverted in a different gonadal output. But the observed patterns in lipid concentrations levels in gorgonians disable us to conclude that lipid concentration levels explain the observed differences in gonadal output found in this study.     

Population structure in Banggai cardinalfish,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Pterapogon kauderni</Emphasis>, a coral reef species lacking a pelagic larval phase

Previous studies on two reef fish lacking a pelagic larval phase (Acanthochromis polyacanthus and Embiotoca jacksoni) revealed features that may be characteristic of their lifestyle: (1) low levels of gene flow, (2) frequent population bottlenecks, and (3) strong phylogeographic breaks, all within their over 1,000 km coastal geographic ranges. The present study tested the predictive nature of these three characteristics in another species lacking a pelagic larval stage, but with a very restricted distribution (<10,000 km²). The Banggai cardinalfish, Pterapogon kauderni Koumans, 1933, is a mouthbrooding species occurring in the Banggai Archipelago (eastern Indonesia). Fish were captured in January and February (2001, 2002). The mitochondrial control region of 122 individuals from 22 locations was sequenced. P. kauderni individuals clustered in two reciprocally monophyletic clades corresponding to a southwestern population (restricted to the southwest of Bangkulu Island) and all northern and eastern populations, which included all the remaining samples. Data were compatible with reduced gene flow and the presence of severe bottlenecks; however, small sample sizes and limited genetic variability in P. kauderni prevented a definitive conclusion. Further studies using larger samples and more rapidly evolving molecular markers may provide enough power to conclusively test our hypotheses.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Mitochondrial DNA variation in the European lobster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Homarus gammarus</Emphasis>) throughout the range

The genetic differentiation of the European lobster (Homarus gammarus) was investigated in 3,283 individuals from 44 population samples throughout its geographical distribution (Norway to Greece) by means of polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of a 3-kb mitochondrial DNA segment. Ninety composite haplotypes were revealed with the number of haplotypes in each population sample ranging from 4 to 31. Private haplotypes were found at very low frequencies. The global exact test of sample differentiation based on composite haplotype frequencies was statistically significant. F_ST analyses also showed significant heterogeneity among the European lobster population samples (F_ST=0.078, P<0.001). This differentiation was mainly due to the population samples from northern Norway, the Netherlands, and the Mediterranean Sea. These samples differentiated from the rest due to reduced gene diversity rather than to unique haplotypes. The relationships among these samples were illustrated with cluster analyses; four major distinct groups were evident: Mediterranean, northern Norway, Netherlands, and the remaining Atlantic samples. Based on the low degree of differentiation revealed in the European lobster and its limited capacity for dispersal, the most probable hypothesis is that all populations have been established from a common refuge after the end of the last Ice Age, that is, within the past 15,000 years. The results of this study show that mitochondrial DNA is a powerful tool for the determination of the genetic structure among lobster samples, which is important for a proper management policy designed to protect and to cultivate this species.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe     

Importance of Habitat Quality and Landscape Connectivity for the Persistence of Endangered Natterjack Toads

Abstract: The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is endangered in several parts of its distribution, including Belgium, where it occurs mainly in artificial habitats. We parameterized a general model for natterjack population viability analysis (PVA) and tested its sensitivity to changes in the values of basic parameters. Then we assessed the relative efficiency of various conservation measures in 2 situations: a small isolated population and a system of 4 populations connected by rare dispersal movements. We based the population viability analysis on a stage‐structured model of natterjack population dynamics. We parameterized the model in the RAMAS GIS platform with vital rates obtained from our own field experience and from published studies. Simulated natterjack populations were highly sensitive to habitat quality (particularly pond drying), to dispersal from surrounding local populations, and to a lesser extent to values of fecundity and survival of terrestrial stages. Population trajectories were nearly insensitive to initial abundances, carrying capacities, and the frequency of extreme climatic conditions. The simulations showed that in habitats with highly ephemeral ponds, where premetamorphosis mortality was high, natterjack populations nearly always had a very high extinction risk. We also illustrated how low dispersal rates (<1 dispersing individual/generation) efficiently rescued declining local populations. Such source‐sink dynamics demonstrate that the identification and management of source populations should be a high priority.     

Genetic structuring of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Latris lineata</Emphasis> at localized and transoceanic scales

Striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) is a demersal teleost distributed around the temperate clines of all the major oceans in the southern hemisphere. Within Tasmanian waters the species is managed as a single stock, although no studies have been performed to confirm genetic panmixia. A protracted pelagic larval phase and a recent transoceanic tag recapture of an adult fish suggest significant potential for genetic mixing between widely separated populations. Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences suggested no genetic mixing between Tasmania, New Zealand and St Paul/Amsterdam Islands, evidence for the first time that there is population structure at a transoceanic scale for this species. In addition, an analysis of molecular variance coupled with phylogenetic analyses suggested no significant structuring of striped trumpeter from three locations around Tasmania. The information provided in this study is useful for the design of modern fisheries management techniques such as spatially implemented marine reserves. In addition, species-by-species knowledge about population structures of marine species facilitates ecologically useful generalizations concerning their population dynamics and key issues on the broader ecology of the oceans.     

Biochemical genetic variation at a leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) locus in blue (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and greenshell (Perna canaliculus) mussel populations along a salinity gradient

In several marine bivalve species, biochemical genetic variation at a leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) locus is associated with environmental variability, primarily salinity fluctuation. Population genetic variation at a LAP locus was investigated here in two sympatric mussel species (Mytilus galloprovincialis and Perna canaliculus) from three locations along a salinity gradient in Wellington Harbour, New Zealand. The data for M. galloprovincialis and P. canaliculus do not support the hypothesis that the LAP polymorphism in either species is associated with salinity variation among adult mussels. Due to the absence of small mussels among the samples it is not possible to discount the hypothesis that selection acts primarily against juveniles, as it does for M. edulis in Long Island Sound, USA. Wellington Harbour populations of M. galloprovincialis exhibited large and often highly significant heterozygote excesses at the LAP locus, whereas populations of P. canaliculus from the same locations exhibited large and highly significant heterozygote deficiencies. The reason for this inter-specific difference in population structure is unknown. If it is the result of selection, this suggests that selection acts differentially upon the two species, because demographic attributes and reproductive biology are very similar in the two species. For both M. galloprovincialis and P. canaliculus, significant levels of population genetic heterogeneity were recorded among three locations separated by only 8 to 12 km. Neither species exhibited shell length-dependent genetic variation at the LAP locus, suggesting that for these two species the LAP polymorphism is not associated with variation in shell length. Received: 30 December 1996 / Accepted: 6 January 1997     

Interspecific variation in thermal denaturation of proteins in the congeneric musselsMytilus trossulus andM. galloprovincialis: evidence from the heat-shock response and protein ubiquitination

The genetic population structure of the precominant zooplankter, the copepod Calanus finmarchicus (Gunnerus), was examined to determine whether genetically distinct populations exist in the Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus was sampled in three regions of the Gulf of Maine (Great South Channel, spring 1989; northern Gulf of Maine, winter 1990; Great South Channel and Georges Bank, spring 1990). Copepods from seven locations in the Great South Channel, five in the northern Gulf of Maine and four on or near Georges Bank were assayed for allozyme variation and mitochondrial DNA variation of amplified 16S rRNA and cytochrome b genes. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analyses of both mitochondrial DNA genes revealed no variation among any of the individuals assayed. Analysis of five polymorphic allozyme loci revealed that genetic variation among the three geographic regions was low, and genetic identities were high between all locations (I>0.97). Most of the genetic variation was among locations regardless of region. Chi-square tests were used to examine genetic similarity between specific pairs of locations within and between regions. In the northern Gulf of Maine, genetic homogeneity occurred over larger spatial scales (hundreds of km) than in either the Great South Channel or Georges Bank (tens of km). Only copepods from the Bay of Fundy and Nova Scotian Shelf locations were genetically distinct from Wilkinson Basin copepods at two loci. Copepod populations from the northern locations may have been partially isolated or they may represent immigrant populations (e.g., from the Gulf of St. Lawrence). Several pairs of locations were genetically distinct at one or more loci in the two southern regions. Differences between locations in these regions may represent distinct populations advected into the areas at different times or from different sources (e.g., genetic variation may represent a mixture of genetically distinct northern and southern copepod populations). These results suggest extensive gene flow among populations of C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine with some evidence of genetic population subdivision near the Gulf's northeastern and southern boundaries.     

Size-dependent, spatial and temporal genetic variation at a leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) locus among blue mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) populations along a salinity gradient

Biochemical genetic variation at a leucine aminopeptidase (LAP) locus is related to salinity variation in several marine bivalve molluscs. This paper details an investigation of the Long Island Sound model of LAP selection (LAP genotype-dependent mortality occurring among newly settled Mytilus edulis mussels) carried out in 1997 among three M. galloprovincialis mussel populations along the salinity gradient of Wellington Harbour, New Zealand. Significant LAP genotypic heterogeneity was observed at the LAP locus between small (<25 mm shell length) and large (>25 mm shell length) M. galloprovincialis from Petone and Eastbourne (the two sites experiencing the greatest salinity variation), whereas genotypic heterogeneity was not significantly different between small and large mussels from Seatoun (the site experiencing the least salinity variation). The Lap ³ allele decreased in frequency and the Lap ⁴ allele increased in frequency at Petone and Eastbourne, whereas the Lap ³ and Lap ⁴ allele frequencies remained effectively constant at Seatoun. Both these findings are consistent with the Long Island Sound model of selection. At all three locations, the Lap ^3,3 genotype decreased in frequency from small to large mussels, whereas the Lap ^3,4 genotype increased in frequency from small to large mussels. All other LAP genotypes occurred at low frequencies (<0.10) at all three locations and showed no evidence of frequency change from small to large-size mussels nor evidence of clinal change among the three locations. These genotype frequency data possibly indicate that the Lap ^3,3 genotype is at a selective disadvantage compared to the Lap ^3,4 genotype at all three locations, and that this selective disadvantage is related to the extent of salinity variation which exists at each location. Further investigation is required before it can be determined if the Long Island Sound model of selection best describes the size-dependent and location-specific changes in LAP allele and genotype frequencies along this salinity gradient. Comparison of the population genetic structure at the LAP locus in 1995 and in 1997 revealed a profound change from heterozygote excesses to heterozygote deficiencies for all three M. galloprovincialis populations. The reason for the change is unknown, but the change indicates that population genetic structure at the LAP locus is highly variable in time, but consistent in space, among these M.␣galloprovincialis populations. Received: 5 February 1998 / Accepted: 27 May 1998     

Molecular Evidence for a Unique Evolutionary Lineage of Endangered Sonoran Desert Fish (Genus Poeciliopsis)

Efforts to restore an endangered species in its former range should be based on a sound understanding of evolutionary relationships among remaining natural populations. In this study mitochondrial (mt) DNA diversity within and among Gila River drainage populations of the endangered Sonoran topminnow ( Poeciliopsis occidentalis ) in Arizona was compared to that from neighboring populations in Sonora, Mexico, where the species remains locally abundant. No mtDNA diversity was detected within or among samples from the Gila River basin in Arizona. But considerable variation was found within and among populations from several river systems in Sonora. Examination of mtDNA from a population that inhabits the upper reaches of the Río Yaqui in southeastern Arizona revealed substantial divergence between it and all other populations examined. We comment on the implications of this divergent population for topminnow management in Arizona and argue for more-detailed genetic and morphological studies to determine the distributional limits and specific status of this highly divergent form.     

Mustached males in a tropical poeciliid fish: emerging female preference selects for a novel male trait

One possible mechanism for the (co-)evolution of seemingly novel male traits and female preferences for them is that males exploit pre-existing female biases, and livebearing fishes (Poeciliidae) have been at the forefront of this research for almost two decades. Here, using 13 poeciliid species from four different genera, we tested whether mustache-like rostral filaments found in males of some Mexican molly (Poecilia sphenops) populations could have evolved due to exploitation of a pre-existing female bias. While Mexican mollies were the only species with a significant female association preference for mustached males, we also did not find any species exhibiting significant aversion for mustached males; rather, variance in female preference scores was large throughout. For example, more than 25% of females spent twice as much time with the mustached male compared to the non-mustached male in most species, but even 31% of Mexican molly females spent more time near the non-mustached male. Hence, a comparison of the strength of preference was inconclusive. We discuss the possibility that the female preference of P. sphenops for mustached males could be due to a female pre-existing bias (sensu lato), even if population means were not significant for species other than P. sphenops. This highlights the importance of distinguishing between population means and individual preferences when interpreting mate choice, and thus, adds depth to the concept of mating preferences as a motor for evolutionary change.     

Temporal stability of gene frequencies within genetically heterogeneous populations of the queen scallop Aequipecten (Chlamys) opercularis

The widely held assumption that gene frequencies within samples of multi-aged organisms are temporally stable has rarely been tested. In order to test this assumption in the commercially exploited bivalve scallop Aequipecten (Chlamys) opercularis (L.), 12 populations were sampled from around the UK over the period 1988–1990 and each was assayed at four putative polymorphic enzyme loci. Most populations were comprised of 3 to 4 year-classes, distinguishable by annual rings laid down on the shell. Three alleles from each locus were used as discriminant-function variables. Discriminant-function analysis based on allele frequencies averaged for each inividual year-class (45 demes) revealed highly significant inter-site heterogeneity. A posteriori classification of individual year-classes based on the discriminant analysis resulted in assignment of year-classes to the correct home site in 80% of cases. If allozyme neutrality is assumed, the phenomenon of predominant local allele frequency-stability through time within populations which are genetically heterogeneous from one site to another raises the possibility that queen scallop populations may be self-recruiting. Despite a planktonic larval phase lasting up to several weeks, this possibility is not excluded by the available hydrographic data.     

A simulation model for the management of vicuña populations

The population dynamics of the vicuña was modelled based on field data from the Central Galeras Sector, Perú. Rains were simulated in order to obtain net primary productivity and grass availability which act upon density-dependent fecundity and mortality. The model produces a population growth curve that tends to stabilize at densities around 100 vicuñas per km². Harvest and shearing processes were simulated as part of the vicuña population management model. Harvest was based upon a fixed threshold density D_e below which no harvest occurs; for densities above D_e harvesting is applied at a rate proportional to the difference between D_e and the current population density (fixed escapement or ‘bang-bang’ harvest rule). Management optimization was analyzed by determining the optimal escapement density D_e, which maximized either net profits or the number of animals harvested. Analyzing the results as cumulative totals over 20 years of simulation, an optimum harvest production was obtained for a D_e of about 40 vicuñas per km², and maximum profit was obtained for a D_e around 70 vicuñas per km². Analyzing the results of 20 years of simulation as annual averages with an original population density of 40 vicuñas per km², the harvest production and profits were maximized for a D_e of 40 and 60 vicuñas per km², respectively.The model was validated using data from the Reserva Nacional San Guillermo, Argentina, where vicuña and guanaco populations coexist (although their interaction was not modelled). The sensitivity analysis was performed with three different techniques: (a) stepwise multiple linear regression, (b) visual graphic analysis based on a polar coordinates system, and (c) direct evaluation of the effect on management decisions. The curve shape parameters of the fecundity and mortality functions proved to be the most important ones in determining the outcome of the model.