土地定级中的数据检验

本文根据土地定级工作中土地级别划分合理性的检验指标,分析了采样数据的分布情况,提出了多种样本数据的检验方法,并给出了检验步骤和相应的数学模型,保证了土地级别划分的合理性。     

土地利用规划环境影响评价的技术方法

评价方法的选择是实现土地利用规划环境影响评价的重点。借鉴项目环评和规划环评的某些方法,根据土地利用规划的层次、类型和阶段的特点,给出一个土地利用规划环评的方法集,并对几种主要方法的适用范围、优缺点进行分析,最后指出方法选择应注意的事项。     

活性污泥处理专家系统的构建

将活性污泥污水处理系统的预测知识、异常诊断知识及分析和控制知识进行整合，并利用基于Rough集的数据挖掘方法梳理、约简知识库，建立专家系统，实现对污水生物处理异常预测及专家诊断等功能。用VC．NET将CLIPS专家系统嵌入到基于网络的污水处理实时控制和数据采集实验平台系统中。通过多传感器的数据融合技术，经过对在线实时采集实验数据的分析，综合判断活性污泥的状态参数及其对系统的影响。     

城镇土地市场的宏观调控

我国城镇土地市场已初步形成，对土壤资源有限而人口众多的发展中国家而论，要使土地市场健康发展，就必须对土地市场进行调控。本文分析了土地资源的基本特征和土地市场中存在的问题，提出了６条调控城镇土地市场的具体措施。     

保护土地——永恒的话题

土地，作为生存之本，生活之源，培育了人类的全部文明。土地是农业生产不可替代的最基本的生产资料和劳动对象、是工业、交通、城镇建设不可缺少的企间载体。纵观中华民族的每一进程、都与上地有着密切的关系，就是到了今天，这片仅占地球7％的上地却养活着占世界人口22％的中华儿女。然而，随着人口的逐年增加和上地的逐年减少，人地矛盾日益突出，上地已成为国人关注的重要问题。如果不迅速扭转目前的局面二它不仅会严重地影响我国的经济建设和社会发展，而且会给手孙后代留下无法弥补的后患。土地锐减国人担忧有资料表明；建国初期，我…     

景区级别与日历效应比较研究——以新疆吐鲁番4景区为例

日历效应是旅游活动在年内变化的时间节律,主要体现在季节效应、节日效应和周末效应。基于景区级别—旅游客流量模型,收集新疆吐鲁番4景区连续3年的逐日客流量数据,通过构建3个指数模型测算效应值,以分析景区级别与日历效应之间的关系。结果发现:吐鲁番旅游淡旺季特别明显,景区级别越高,淡旺季差异越大;五一和国庆节日效应最高,景区级别越低,节日效应越显著,长假期有明显的节前和节后效应;周末效应有明显的季节性差异,周六效应高于周日效应,景区级别越低,周末效应越高。最后,从气候变化、节假日制度和作息制度探讨了旅游日历效应的成因。     

流域非点源分布式模型AnnAGNPS参数的不确定性研究

流域非点源分布式模型的不确定性研究成为目前的热点问题之一。本研究以宁波市章溪河流域为研究区,通过GIS软件AreView和AnnAGNPS模型,集成利用莫里斯分类筛选法,选取临界源面积、SCS曲线系数、水土保持因子、饱和导水率、氮磷吸收率、施肥量等6个因子进行敏感性分析。模拟结果表明,土壤饱和导水率、水土保持因子和径流曲线CN值对模型输出结果影响较大;水土保持因子对泥沙、总磷和总有机碳负荷的模拟结果影响最大,均呈显著负效应;径流曲线CN值对总氮负荷计算结果影响最大,呈显著正效应。     

中国土地资源安全度研究——以土地资源的人口承载力为标准

土地资源安全维系着国民经济能否可持续发展，而可持续发展是在不超过生态系统承载力条件下的一种安全发展模式。以中国大陆29个省市为例，研究了中国各省区的土地资源人口承载力，进而计算了我国土地资源的安全度。结果表明，我国各省区土地资源人口承载力存在明显的地域不均衡现象，超载与盈余并存；多数省份处于接近或超过土地资源人口承载临界值，我国土地资源安全状况不容乐观。     

土地使用权出让与土地利用总体规划

本文在论述土地使用权出让和土地利用总体规划内涵的基础上,研究了两者作用和反作用的关系,提出了两者最终目标一致性的观点,并探讨了实践上相关的问题。     

我国土地年租制的发展趋势--年租制与增量土地供应

随着我国产业结构的急剧变化,城市建设用地需求量激增,与农业争地现象严重,征地、供地环节的问题日益突出。在这种环境下,实施土地年租制的重要性逐渐凸显。在肯定年租制盘活城市存量土地的有效作用的基础上,着重分析了在增量土地供应环节引入年租制,对进一步完善土地有偿使用制度,从而遏制圈地运动,协助解决征地补偿问题,以及为国家创造更多的土地收益等方面的积极作用,为我国年租制的发展方向提供理论参考和实践依据。     

电磁兼容发射测量中的不确定度

本文着重分析电磁兼容发射测量中的不确定度。以评定电源端子骚扰电压的不确定度为例,介绍发射测量不确定度的目的、不确定度源的种类、不确定度报告的评定方法及其Ucispr和不确定度在符合性判据中的运用。     

关于不确定度评定中两个问题的讨论

通过对环境监测仪器分析不确定度评定中,标准不确定度和相对标准不确定度的单位来源以及关于相对标准不确定度两种计算方法的讨论,得出标准不确定度是有量纲的、相对标准不确定度是无量纲的;最大允许误差较易获得,用这种方法计算不确定度有很好的可靠性。相对标准偏差计算不确定度则结果更好。     

A Hydraulic MultiModel Ensemble Framework for Visualizing Flood Inundation Uncertainty

While deterministic forecasts provide a single realization of potential inundation, the inherent uncertainty associated with forecasts also needs to be conveyed for improved decision support. The objective of this study was to develop an ensemble framework for the quantification and visualization of uncertainty associated with flood inundation forecast maps. An 11‐member ensemble streamflow forecast at lead times from 0 to 48 hr was used to force two hydraulic models to produce a multimodel ensemble. The hydraulic models used are (1) the International River Interface Cooperative along with Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels solver and (2) the two‐dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center‐River Analysis System. Uncertainty was quantified and augmented onto flood inundation maps by calculating statistical spread among the ensemble members. For visualization, a series of probability flood maps conveying the uncertainty in forecasted water extent, water depth, and flow velocity was disseminated through a web‐based decision support tool. The results from this study offer a framework for quantifying and visualizing model uncertainty in forecasted flood inundation maps.     

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.     

Applications of Explicitly Incorporated/Post‐Processing Measurement Uncertainty in Watershed Modeling

In the field of watershed modeling, the impact of measurement uncertainty (MU) on calibration results indicates the potential issue of inaccurate model predictions. It is important to note that MU refers to the uncertainty in measured data such as flow and nutrient values that are used to evaluate model outputs. The calculation of error statistics assuming measured data are deterministic may not be appropriate as has been frequently stated in literature. Although MU can affect model calibration results, it is rarely incorporated in modeling practice. MU can be incorporated in two schemes: explicitly incorporated (MU‐EI) during model calibration and post‐processed (MU‐PP) after calibration is completed. In this study, both schemes are implemented in a case study of the Arroyo Colorado Watershed, Texas. Unexpectedly, no substantial differences were observed between each scheme for flow predictions. Although MU did not cause dramatic differences in most sediment and NH₄‐N predictions, error statistics were affected in cases with MU greater than 50%, especially for sediment and NH₄‐N. Therefore, it is concluded that MU may not exert a significant impact on model predictions until certain threshold is reached. This study demonstrates that high levels of uncertainty in measured calibration/validation data significantly affect parameter estimation, especially in the auto‐calibration process.     

环境试验箱温度性能不确定度的评定

本文探讨了依据环境试验箱的在温度校准时所得的数据来评定其温度性能不确定度的方法,该方法简单、可操作性强,为环境试验的质量控制提供了科学依据。     

农地开发整理新增耕地价格评估

有序的农地流转市场需要有价格体系支持.以国家投资的一个重点农地整理项目为例,探讨了农地整理新增耕地价格的内涵、特点、价格评估的必要性、原则和估价方法的选择,并运用成本法评估了新增耕地的价格,旨在为目前我国全面开展的农地开发整理新增耕地入市价格评估提供实践依据.     

不确定条件下矿产资源的最优开采

通过一个连续时间的随机动态规划模型,探讨了市场需求、资源存量的不确定性以及勘探活动对矿产资源价格和开采速度的影响,并给出了随机条件下Hotelling法则的表达形式.模型结果显示:不确定性对资源价格变化速度的影响主要取决于开采成本,如果相对于资源存量来说开采成本是不变的或者开采的规模成本是不变的,则不确定性对资源价格的变化速度没有影响.反之,如果开采的规模成本是递增的,则不确定性会加速资源价格的变化.此外,不确定性的存在将加快资源的开采速度.至于勘探活动,它一方面降低了地质条件的不确定性,另一方面增加了资源的存量,所以勘探活动降低了资源价格和开采速度的变化率,减少了不确定性对资源开采的影响.