A new meta-analysis on the WTP/WTA disparity

This study reports a new meta-analysis of papers that elicit willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept compensation (WTA) measures of value for the same good. We investigate the effects of type of good and several survey-design features on the WTP/WTA disparity, measured as the logarithm of the ratio of mean WTA to mean WTP. Confirming Horowitz and McConnell?s (2002) pioneering meta-analysis, we find the disparity is smaller for ordinary private goods than for public and non-market goods, that it is not solely an artifact of using hypothetical transactions or other weak experimental or survey methods, and that it is smaller for studies using student subjects. In addition, we find that the disparity is smaller when subjects have experience valuing the good in real markets or through repeated experimental trials. In contrast to Horowitz and McConnell, we find the disparity is significantly smaller in studies using incentive-compatible elicitation mechanisms. The disparity is smaller in more recent studies, an effect that is attributable only in part to changes in study characteristics.     

Bridging the gap between laboratory experiments and naturally occurring markets: An inferred valuation method

Several recent studies have found important differences between behavior in the laboratory and the field. We explore two possible causes for the divergence: social concerns and unfamiliarity with the traded good. Consistent with our conceptual model, we find that people overstated their preferences for relatively familiar goods with normative attributes and understated their preferences for a relatively unfamiliar good with low normative motivations in the laboratory as compared to the field. We also find that for goods with a normative dimension, a new method we refer to as inferred valuation has the potential to narrow the lab–field gap. In some cases, willingness-to-pay obtained from a conventional valuation elicitation method is more than twice the value from the new inferred valuation approach.     

The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings

We critically evaluate the empirical basis for the so-called resource curse and find that, despite the topic's popularity in economics and political science research, this apparent paradox may be a red herring. The most commonly used measure of “resource abundance” can be more usefully interpreted as a proxy for “resource dependence”—endogenous to underlying structural factors. In multiple estimations that combine resource abundance and dependence, institutional, and constitutional variables, we find that (i) resource abundance, constitutions, and institutions determine resource dependence, (ii) resource dependence does not affect growth, and (iii) resource abundance positively affects growth and institutional quality.     

A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum

This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set.     

A goal interval programming model for resource allocation in a marine environmental protection program

A multidimensional “goal programming” model is developed to aid resource allocation decisions in the U. S. Coast Guard's Marine Environmental Protection (MEP) program. It is then extended to a model of “goal interval programming” (GIP ) type where exact values for the indicated goals, as in ordinary goal programming, are replaced by ranges. Deviations outside these ranges are also accommodated by piecewise linear functions with slopes that vary with distance from the goal intervals. Uses and generalizations are discussed in the context of applications to allocating manhours and planning the activities of the Coast Guard's MEP program.     

Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

Selecting parameters for calibration via sensitivity analysis: An individual-based model of mosquitofish population dynamics

A stochastic individual-based model (IBM) of mosquitofish population dynamics in experimental ponds was constructed in order to increase, virtually, the number of replicates of control populations in an ecotoxicology trial, and thus to increase the statistical power of the experiments. In this context, great importance had to be paid to model calibration as this conditions the use of the model as a reference for statistical comparisons. Accordingly, model calibration required that both mean behaviour and variability behaviour of the model were in accordance with real data. Currently, identifying parameter values from observed data is still an open issue for IBMs, especially when the parameter space is large. Our model included 41 parameters: 30 driving the model expectancy and 11 driving the model variability. Under these conditions, the use of “Latin hypercube” sampling would most probably have “missed” some important combinations of parameter values. Therefore, complete factorial design was preferred. Unfortunately, due to the constraints of the computational capacity, cost-acceptable “complete designs” were limited to no more than nine parameters, the calibration question becoming a parameter selection question. In this study, successive “complete designs” were conducted with different sets of parameters and different parameter values, in order to progressively narrow the parameter space. For each “complete design”, the selection of a maximum of nine parameters and their respective n values was carefully guided by sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis was decisive in selecting parameters that were both influential and likely to have strong interactions. According to this strategy, the model of mosquitofish population dynamics was calibrated on real data from two different years of experiments, and validated on real data from another independent year. This model includes two categories of agents; fish and their living environment. Fish agents have four main processes: growth, survival, puberty and reproduction. The outputs of the model are the length frequency distribution of the population and the 16 scalar variables describing the fish populations. In this study, the length frequency distribution was parameterized by 10 scalars in order to be able to perform calibration. The recently suggested notion of “probabilistic distribution of the distributions” was also applied to our case study, and was shown to be very promising for comparing length frequency distributions (as such).     

Entitlements, missing markets, and environmental uncertainty: Reply

At one level Dore and Ward seem intent on immunizing received doctrine. They say that I did not prove that rights violated Nozick's principles of justice, and that I did not prove that missing markets were the problem. More telling, they allege I did not prove that my story was better than the particular story favored by Dore and Ward. That is, they argue that : “ … there is an alternative approach, based on the theory of public economics, which is indeed operational.”³ They then use the bulk of their comment to explain and defend this alternative model. They hope to convince the reader that the model of “public economics” survives intact in the face of my alternative model. To the extent that their model allows one to define the problem away, it is not difficult to see why they find it so compelling.More seriously, Dore and Ward fail to make a coherent argument about the concept of rights and duties and the logic of a particular rights structure that happens to prevail. They seem concerned that my article was tampering with some sacred social construct—the status quo rights structure—and that my article threatened the received wisdom of both “public economics” and Paretian-Walrasian bliss. Indeed, theirs seems to be a genuine fear that if economists release their grip on the certitude of received orthodoxy the floodgates will be open to all manner of bumbling regulators seeking to shift rights and wealth positions across generations. My article is apparently threatening because it seems to suggest that the received wisdom may, at times, be misleading.     

Creation and preservation of vegetation patterns by grazing

Structural patterns of tall stands (“tussock”) and short stands (“lawn”) are observed in grazed vegetation throughout the world. Such structural vegetation diversity influences plant and animal diversity. A possible mechanism for the creation and preservation of such patterns is a positive feedback between grazing and plant palatability. Although some theoretical studies have addressed this point in a non-spatial setting, the spatial consequences of this feedback mechanism on the stability and spatial characteristics of vegetation structure patterns have not been studied.We addressed this issue by analyzing a spatially explicit individual-based plant-grazer simulation model, based on published empirical relations and the assumption of optimal foraging.In the model, the selection by the grazer of short stands (that have a higher energy content and are more palatable) is affected by traveling costs and the spatial organization of swards. Nevertheless, the most selected biomass in this type of short stands was the optimal biomass predicted by cropping and digestion constraints. As a result of the optimal foraging strategy, the grazers displayed Lévy-flight traveling behavior during the simulations with characteristic exponent μ ≈ 2.Patterns of short and tall stands created by grazing were preserved for at least a decade. Even in seasonal habitat, the spatial organization of the patterns remained relatively constant, despite fluctuations in the area of short stands. Heterogeneity of initial vegetation increased heterogeneity of the grazing-induced pattern, but did not affect its stability.The area of short stands that was preserved by grazing scaled with the herbivore mass to the power 0.4 and with the carrying capacity of the vegetation to the power −0.75.Patterns of tall and short stands can be created and perpetuated by optimally grazing ruminants, irrespective of possible underlying soil patterns. The simulations generate predictions for the stability and spatial characteristics of such structural vegetation patterns.     

Decentralized regulation of a common property renewable resource industry with irreversible investment

The effectiveness of output controls for rationalizing a common property renewable resource has been called into question by the theoretical work of J. R. Gould [Economica, Nov., 383–402 (1972)]. A proper examination of this question requires an intertemporal analysis, one that takes into account that asymmetries between persistent factors of production (“immaleable capital”) and factors that are instantaneously consumed (“labor” or ldharvest effort”). We present here a nonlinear intertemporal model of a renewable resource industry, under conditions of irreversible capital investment, and undertake to analyze its dynamics, both at open access and under centralized optimal management. We then examine the theoretical possibility of decentralized regulation by Pigouvian taxes, and reconsider the proposition of Gould.     

Putting free-riding to work: A Partnership Solution to the common-property problem

The common-property problem results in excessive mining, hunting, and extraction of oil and water. The same phenomenon is also responsible for excessive investment in R&D and excessive outlays in rent-seeking contests. We propose a “Partnership Solution” to eliminate or at least mitigate these excesses. Each of N players joins a partnership in the first stage and chooses his effort in the second stage. Under the rules of a partnership, each member must pay his own cost of effort but receives an equal share of the partnership's revenue. The incentive to free-ride created by such partnerships turns out to be beneficial since it naturally offsets the excessive effort inherent in such problems. In our two-stage game, this institutional arrangement can, under specified circumstances, induce the social optimum in a subgame-perfect equilibrium: no one has a unilateral incentive (1) to switch to another partnership (or create a new partnership) in the first stage or (2) to deviate from socially optimal actions in the second stage. The game may have other subgame-perfect equilibria, but the one associated with the “Partnership Solution” is strictly preferred by every player. We also propose a modification of the first stage which generates a unique subgame-perfect equilibrium. Antitrust authorities should recognize that partnerships can have a less benign use. By organizing as competing partnerships, an industry can reduce the “excessive” output of Cournot oligopoly to the monopoly level. Since no partner has any incentive to overproduce in the current period, there is no need to deter cheating with threats of future punishments.     

Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.     

Male influence on sex allocation in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis

Sex allocation is an important reproductive decision for parents. However, it is often assumed that females have substantial control over sex allocation decisions, and this is particularly true in haplodiploid insects, in which females apparently determine sex by deciding whether to fertilise an egg (and produce a diploid daughter) or not (and produce a haploid son). Mechanisms by which males may influence sex allocation are not so straightforward, and their potential influence on sex ratios has been somewhat neglected. Here, we test whether males influence offspring sex ratios in the parasitoid wasp Nasonia vitripennis. We show that some of the variation in observed sex ratios can be attributed to males when comparing the affect of male strain on sex ratio. We did not find among-male variation in sex ratio with a less powerful experiment using males from only one strain or an effect of male mating environment. Our data suggest that males can influence female sex ratios and contribute to the variation around the sex ratios optimal for females. However, the influence is not large, suggesting that females have more influence on sex allocation than do males. We conclude by considering whether male influences on sex ratio represent differences in male reproductive competence or deliberate attempts by males to increase their fitness by influencing daughter production.     

Sex ratio manipulation and decreased growth of male offspring of undernourished golden hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus)

Summary The theory that female mammals in poor condition may increase individual fitness by skewing the sex ratio of their offspring toward daughters and by investing more resources in daughters than in sons was tested in hamsters. Newly mated experimental females were food-restricted during pregnancy and lactation (RR) or during lactation only (AR). Controls received food ad libitum. Maternal body weights were assessed daily from mating to 25 days postpartum. Litter survival (% litters with at least one pup surviving on any day), litter size, offspring sex ratios (=% males), and pup weights were monitored daily from birth (Day 1) to Day 25. All control and AR dams gave birth 16 days after mating. Gestation was extended by 1–3 days for 35.4% of RR dams. RR dams weighed significantly less at parturition than controls and AR females. During lactation, AR females showed the greatest weight loss and control females the least. AR weight loss exceeded that of RR females, possibly because the former maintained larger litters. Survival was highest for controls, intermediate for AR, and lowest for RR litters. Mean sex ratio at birth was significantly less for RR (40.7%) than for control (49.6%) and AR (48.8%) litters. RR sex ratio did not change significantly postnatally. Sex ratios of control and AR litters never differed statistically from 50%. Control male pups were significantly heavier than their sisters throughout the experiment. No significant gender differences were observed for AR pup weights after Day 2 postpartum. RR female offspring weighed more than their brothers throughout the experiment, and this difference was statistically significant immediately prior to the time that pups began to feed independently (Days 14–17). RR female pup weights were similar to, and sometimes significantly greater than, weights of control daughters during the period of postnatal maternal investment. Control males were always heavier than males from the other treatments. Patterns of weight gain by AR and RR males varied with age. We conclude that underfed female hamsters are able to adjust the sex ratio of offspring prenatally and parental investment postnatally to favor daughters.     

Density-dependent kinetics models for a simple description of complex phenomena in macroscopic mass-balance modeling of bioreactors

From experiments originally proposed by Ardity et al. [Arditi, R., Perrin, N., Saïah, H., 1991. Functional responses and heterogeneities: an experimental test with cladocerans. Oikos 60, 69–75] in the field of fundamental ecology, this paper derives conditions under which mass balance ratio-dependent kinetics models are more appropriate (in a sense to be specified in the sequel) than substrate-dependent kinetics models to macroscopically describe bioprocesses with attached biomass. From literature results, it is also suggested that the use of Contois growth functions should be preferred to substrate-dependent kinetics when macroscopically modeling an immobilized-biomass bioreactor. The “robustness” of this result, rather based on a qualitative reasoning, is investigated in simulation and a number of fundamental properties of ratio-dependent models are highlighted. Furthermore, it is shown that ratio-dependent models are well suited to describe macroscopically bioreactors where the diffusion phenomenon is obviously one of the most important limiting factor.     

Stochastic Pollution, Permits, and Merger Incentives

Pollution permit regulations introduce nonlinearities into the objective function of a polluting firm. We develop a microeconomic model to show the effects these nonlinearities might have upon firm decisions when emissions are stochastic. Under perfect competition the fraction of planned pollution covered by permits is shown to be separable from planned production. We also demonstrate that permit management incentives may motivate a merger of otherwise independent firms. Incentives to petition for “bubble” coverage are also considered. The model is studied under risk neutrality and risk aversion. Imperfectly competitive situations in the output and permit markets are also analyzed.     

Saturday effects in tanker oil spills

This paper documents a “Saturday effect” in the timing of tanker oil spills—certain types of spills happen much more frequently on this day than one would expect if the spills were uniformly distributed. The phenomenon is restricted to Europe and North America, and is associated with “vessel guidance” accidents—groundings, collisions, and rammings. Eliminating the Saturday effect would reduce tanker oil spills by around 163,000 gallons per year. Several policy responses are considered, including a Saturday harbor tax. A lower bound for an efficient tax is estimated to be $780 for a 20 million gal cargo.     

Strategic environmental policy; eco-dumping or a green strategy?

The Porter hypothesis claims that a strong environmental policy best serves the interests of a nation's export industry. While this hypothesis seems to be based on some form of bounded rationality, this paper argues that governments may have good reasons for setting an especially strong environmental policy even though firms are fully rational. If the available abatement technology turns the environment into an “inferior input”, competitiveness is spurred by a strong environmental policy. The government should take advantage of this, and set an especially strict emission quota or an especially high emission tax. The findings in the paper also has consequences for the desirability of international cooperation with respect to national environmental policy. If a strict environmental policy spurs competitiveness, the environment is better protected without cooperation.     

Growth and grazing rates of bacteria groups with different apparent DNA content in the Gulf of Mexico

Growth rates and grazing losses of bacterioplankton were assessed by serial dilution experiments in surface waters in the Mississippi River plume, the northern Gulf of Mexico, a Texas coastal lagoon (Laguna Madre), southeast Gulf of Mexico surface water, and the chlorophyll subsurface maximum layer in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Bacteria were quantified by flow cytometry after DNA staining with SYBR Green, which allowed for discrimination of growth and grazing rates of four bacteria subpopulations distinguished by their apparent DNA content and cell size (light scatter signal). Total bacteria growth rates (0.2–0.9 day^–1) were mostly balanced by grazing losses, resulting in net growth rates of –0.18 to 0.45 day^–1. Growth rates of DNA subpopulations varied within experiments, sometimes substantially. In most, but not all, experiments, the largest bacteria with highest DNA content exhibited the highest growth rates, but a relationship between DNA content and growth rates or grazing losses was absent. Small bacteria with the lowest DNA content showed positive growth rates in most experiments, sometimes higher than growth rates of bacteria containing more DNA, and were grazed upon actively. Low-DNA bacteria were not inactive and were an integral part of the microbial food web.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe     

Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the US from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies in the electricity sector

Actions to slow atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases also would reduce conventional air pollutants yielding “ancillary” benefits that tend to accrue locally and in the near-term. Using a detailed electricity model linked to an integrated assessment framework to value changes in human health, we find a tax of $25 per metric ton of carbon emissions would yield NO_x-related health benefits of about $8 per metric ton of carbon reduced in the year 2010 (1997 dollars). Additional savings of $4–$7 accrue from reduced investment in NO_x and SO₂ abatement in order to comply with emission caps. Total ancillary benefits of a $25 carbon tax are $12–$14, which appear to justify the costs of a $25 tax, although marginal benefits are less than marginal costs. At a tax of $75, greater total benefits are achieved but the value per ton of carbon reductions remains roughly constant at about $12.