The use of replicated plot,line and point sampling for estimating species abundance and ecological diversity

The paper deals with the problem of estimating diversity indexes for an ecological community. First the species abundances are unbiasedly and consistently estimated using designs based on n random and independent selections of plots, points or lines over the study area. The problem of sampling elusive populations is also considered. Finally, the diversity index estimates are obtained as functions of the abundance estimates. The resulting estimators turn out to be asymptotically (n large) unbiased, even if a considerable bias may occur for a small n. Accordingly, the method of jackknifing is made use of in order to reduce bias.     

The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling

Using known occurrences of species and correlational modeling approaches has become a common paradigm in broad-scale ecology and biogeography, yet important aspects of the methodology remain little-explored in terms of conceptual basis. Here, we explore the conceptual and empirical reasons behind choice of extent of study area in such analyses, and offer practical, but conceptually justified, reasoning for such decisions. We assert that the area that has been accessible to the species of interest over relevant time periods represents the ideal area for model development, testing, and comparison.     

Characterization of phosphorus species and modeling for its organic forms in eutrophic shallow lake sediments,North China

Variations of phosphorus （P） and its species in surface sediment of Baiyangdian Lake, a eutrophic shallow lake located in North China, were investigated through combination of field survey and numerical calculation based on cluster analysis. P fractionation was performed by a sequential extraction scheme, categorized as loosely bound P （NH4Cl-P）, reductant soluble P （BD-P）, metallic oxide bound P （NaOH-P）, calcium bound P （HCl-P） and organic P （Org-P）. P concentrations exhibited regional similarities and a total of four sub-areas were identified in which the same rank was HCl-P 〉 Org-P 〉 BD-P ,=NaOH-P 〉NH4Cl-E NH4Cl-P, BD-P and Org-P were found to contribute to P enrichment in overlying water column. Specifically, labile Org-P acted as a potential pool with a greater contribution in aerobic layer compared to anaerobic layer. A hysteresis （lag = 4 months） existed when labile Org-P concentration was negatively correlated with aerobic layer thickness. In view of magnitude of identified P contributors in sub-areas, higher potential of P release was present in Fuhe River and Tang River estuary areas. On the basis of calibration and verification, the mathematical model with parameter settings applied in this study was improved to serve as a tool for limnology management and eutrophic control.     

An integrated modeling framework for performing environmental assessments: Application to ecosystem services in the Albemarle-Pamlico basins (NC and VA, USA)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency uses environmental models to inform rulemaking and policy decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales. As decision-making has moved towards integrated thinking and assessment (e.g. media, site, region, services), the increasing complexity and interdisciplinary nature of modern environmental problems has necessitated a new generation of integrated modeling technologies. Environmental modelers are now faced with the challenge of determining how data from manifold sources, types of process-based and empirical models, and hardware/software computing infrastructure can be reliably integrated and applied to protect human health and the environment.In this study, we demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that allows us to predict the state of freshwater ecosystem services within and across the Albemarle-Pamlico Watershed, North Carolina and Virginia (USA). The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is a hardware and software parallel-computing interface with pre/post-processing analysis tools, including parameter estimation, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In this application, five environmental models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities: the Soil Water Assessment Tool predicts watershed runoff; the Watershed Mercury Model simulates mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index model predicts physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator predicts fish growth and production, as well as exposure and bioaccumulation of toxic substances (e.g., mercury).Using this Framework, we present a baseline assessment of two freshwater ecosystem services-water quality and fisheries resources-in headwater streams throughout the Albemarle-Pamlico. A stratified random sample of 50 headwater streams is used to draw inferences about the target population of headwater streams across the region. Input data is developed for a twenty-year baseline simulation in each sampled stream using current land use and climate conditions. Monte Carlo sampling (n = 100 iterations per stream) is also used to demonstrate some of the Framework's experimental design and data analysis features. To evaluate model performance and accuracy, we compare initial (i.e., uncalibrated) model predictions (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, fish density, and methylmercury concentration within fish tissue) against empirical field data. Finally, we ‘roll-up’ the results from individual streams, to assess freshwater ecosystem services at the regional scale.     

GIS-based modeling of the geographic distribution of Quercus emoryi Torr. (Fagaceae) in México and identification of significant environmental factors influencing the species’ distribution

The greatest concentration of oak species in the world is believed to be found in Mexico. These species are potentially useful for reforestation because of their capacity to adapt to diverse environments. Knowledge of their geographic distribution and of species–environment relations is essential for decision-making in the management and conservation of natural resources. The objectives of this study were to develop a model of the distribution of Quercus emoryi Torr. in Mexico, using geographic information systems and data layers of climatic and other variables, and to determine the variables that significantly influence the distribution of the species. The study consisted of the following steps: (A) selection of the target species from a botanical scientific collection, (B) characterization of the collecting sites using images with values or categories of the variables, (C) model building with the overlay of images that meet the habitat conditions determined from the characterization of sites, (D) model validation with independent data in order to determine the precision of the model, (E) model calibration through adjustment of the intervals of some variables, and (F) sensitivity analysis using precision and concordance non-parametric statistics applied to pairs of images. Results show that the intervals of the variables that best describe the species’ habitat are the following: altitude from 1650 to 2750 amsl, slope from 0 to 66°; average minimum temperature of January from −12 to −3 °C; mean temperature of June from 11 to 25 °C; mean annual precipitation from 218 to 1225 mm; soil units: lithosol, eutric cambisol, haplic phaeozem, chromic luvisol, rendzina, luvic xerosol, mollic planosol, pellic vertisol, eutric regosol; type of vegetation: oak forest, oak–pine forest, pine forest, pine–oak forest, juniperus forest, low open forest, natural grassland and chaparral. The resulting model of the geographic distribution of Quercus emoryi in Mexico had the following values for non-parametric statistics of precision and agreement: Kappa index of 0.613 and 0.788, overall accuracy of 0.806 and 0.894, sensitivity of 0.650 and 0.825, specificity of 0.963, positive predictive value of 0.945 and 0.957 and negative predictive value of 0.733 and 0.846. Results indicate that the variable average minimum temperature of January, with a maximum value of −3 °C, is an important factor in limiting the species’ distribution.     

东海近岸海域不同贝类体内挥发性酚残留的时空变化及其污染分析

2006年6月和2007年6月分别在东海近岸海域采集了4种贝类,对不同贝类体内挥发性酚残留量进行了检测。结果表明：2006年6月调查海域4种贝类体内挥发性酚残留量范围为0.25-0.59mg·kg^-1,褶牡蛎（Crassostrea plicatula）体内残留量最高;2007年6月残留量范围为0.80-1.50mg·kg^-1,紫贻贝（Mytilus edulis）体内残留量最高。在2次采样间4种贝类体内挥发性酚残留量的平均值表现为四角蛤蜊（Mactra veneriformis）〈文蛤（Meretrix meretrix）〈褶牡蛎〈紫贻贝。2006年6月调查海域各站点贝类体内挥发性酚残留量范围为ND-0.78mg·kg^-1,平均值为0.31mg·kg^-1;2007年6月残留量范围为0.20-2.22mg·kg^-1,平均值为1.19mg·kg^-1。2次采样间贝类体内挥发性酚在调查海域的分布格局为东海中部〉东海南部〉东海北部。贝类体内挥发性酚残留量主要受自身与外界环境因素的综合作用。     

祁连山青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布

通过对祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布格局的研究,结果表明：祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落内有维管植物25科51属96种,其中乔木4种,灌木29种,草本62种;植物种相对集中分布于海拔2 680～2 890 m的阴坡;随海拔梯度升高,群落内植物种数减少,且相邻样地的共有种数呈不明显的先减少而后增加的趋势,Margalef指数、Shannon-Wiener指数和Pielou指数呈降低趋势;不同林型的植物种的丰富度依次为：青海云杉混交林〉草类-青海云杉林〉苔藓-青海云杉林〉灌木-青海云杉林〉马先蒿-青海云杉林。     

新疆博斯腾湖表层沉积物中硅藻分布特征及影响因素分析

通过采集新疆博斯腾湖不同水深、矿化度、营养盐浓度及pH环境下的湖泊表层沉积物,提取硅藻并进行种属组合分析,研究了中国西北干旱区半封闭淡水湖泊中硅藻的分布特征,并且运用降维对应分析（DCA）,探讨了影响博斯腾湖现生硅藻组合特征的主要水质环境因子及硅藻种属对水体理化性质变化的响应。研究结果表明,在博斯腾湖硅藻组合受湖泊水深、矿化度影响明显分区：河口区受水体扰动作用影响明显,硅藻浓度变化大,以Fragilaria属为主;黄水湾区硅藻分布受矿化度及pH影响显著,以Mastogloia smithii、Navicula anglica、Gomphonema parvulum等底栖、喜碱性、微咸水种为主,淡水种Fragilaria属的含量明显低于其它区域,其含量的高低指示了水体矿化度的变化;在湖心区硅藻组合主要响应于水深变化,当水深增加时,Cyclotella radiosa、C.meneghiniana、Fragilaria bidens等浮游种含量显著增加,Mastogloria smithii、Gomphonema parvulum等底栖种含量明显降低或消失,且发现Fragilaria属在5.4～7.8m水深处生长繁盛。研究结果为建立中国西北干旱区的硅藻-环境因子关系数据库、重建本地区过去环境提供了理论依据。