Do mountain log skinks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudemoia entrecasteauxii</Emphasis>) modify their behaviour in the presence of two predators?

Prey often adopt antipredator strategies to reduce the likelihood of predation. In the presence of predators, prey may use antipredator strategies that are effective against a single predator (specific) or that are effective against several predators (nonspecific). Most studies have been confined to single predator environments although prey are often faced with multiple predators. When more than one predator is present, specific antipredator behaviours can conflict and avoidance of one predator may increase vulnerability to another. To test how prey cope with this dilemma, I recorded the behaviours of lizards responding to the nonlethal cues of a bird and snake presented singly and simultaneously. Lizards use specific and conflicting antipredator tactics when confronted with each predator, as evidenced by refuge use. However, when both predators were present, lizards refuge use was the same as in the predator-free environment, indicating that they abandoned refuge use as a primary mechanism for predator avoidance. In the presence of both predators, they reduced their overall movement and time spent thermoregulating. This shift in behaviour may represent a compromise to minimize overall risk, following a change in predator exposure. This provides evidence of plasticity in lizard antipredator behaviour and shows that prey responses to two predators cannot be accurately predicted from what is observed when only one predator is present.Communicated by W. Cooper     

Identifying Sighting Clusters of Endangered Taxa with Historical Records

Abstract: The probability and time of extinction of taxa is often inferred from statistical analyses of historical records. Many of these analyses require the exclusion of multiple records within a unit of time (i.e., a month or a year). Nevertheless, spatially explicit, temporally aggregated data may be useful for identifying clusters of sightings (i.e., sighting clusters) in space and time. Identification of sighting clusters highlights changes in the historical recording of endangered taxa. I used two methods to identify sighting clusters in historical records: the Ederer–Myers–Mantel (EMM) test and the space–time permutation scan (STPS). I applied these methods to the spatially explicit sighting records of three species of orchids that are listed as endangered in the Republic of Ireland under the Wildlife Act (1976): Cephalanthera longifolia, Hammarbya paludosa, and Pseudorchis albida. Results with the EMM test were strongly affected by the choice of the time interval, and thus the number of temporal samples, used to examine the records. For example, sightings of P. albida clustered when the records were partitioned into 20‐year temporal samples, but not when they were partitioned into 22‐year temporal samples. Because the statistical power of EMM was low, it will not be useful when data are sparse. Nevertheless, the STPS identified regions that contained sighting clusters because it uses a flexible scanning window (defined by cylinders of varying size that move over the study area and evaluate the likelihood of clustering) to detect them, and it identified regions with high and regions with low rates of orchid sightings. The STPS analyses can be used to detect sighting clusters of endangered species that may be related to regions of extirpation and may assist in the categorization of threat status.     

Detecting Population Declines over Large Areas with Presence-Absence, Time-to-Encounter, and Count Survey Methods

Abstract:  Ecologists often discount presence-absence surveys as a poor way to gain insight into population dynamics, in part because these surveys are not amenable to many standard statistical tests. Still, presence-absence surveys are sometimes the only feasible alternative for monitoring large areas when funds are limited, especially for sparse or difficult-to-detect species. I undertook a detailed simulation study to compare the power of presence-absence, count, and time-to-encounter surveys to detect regional declines in a population. I used a modeling approach that simulates both population numbers and the monitoring process, accounting for observation and other measurement errors. In gauging the efficacy of presence-absence surveys versus other approaches, I varied the number of survey sites, the spatial variation in encounter rate, the mean encounter rate, and the type of population loss. My results showed that presence-absence data can be as or more powerful than count data in many cases. Quantitative guidelines for choosing between presence-absence surveys and count surveys depend on the biological and logistical constraints governing a conservation monitoring situation. Generally, presence-absence surveys work best when there is little variability in abundance among the survey sites, the organism is rare, and the species is difficult to detect so that the time spent getting to each survey site is less than or equal to the time spent surveying each site. Count surveys work best otherwise. I present a case study with count data on the Northern Flicker ( Colaptes auratus ) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to illustrate how the method might be used with field-survey data. The case study demonstrates that a count survey would be the most cost-effective design but would entail reduction in the number of sites. If this site reduction is not desirable, a presence-absence survey would be the most cost-effective survey.     

Use of Substitute Species in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  In conservation biology, researchers often want to study the reasons why an endangered population is faring poorly but are unable to study it directly for logistical or political reasons. Instead they study a species that substitutes for the one of concern in the hope that it will cast light on the conservation problem. Here we outline the assumptions underlying this approach. Substitutes can be different populations or species and may be chosen because they are similar biologically to the target or representatives of a constellation of species of which the target is one. They also may be used to develop a predictive model to which the conservation target can be related. For substitutes to be appropriate, they should share the same key ecological or behavioral traits that make the target sensitive to environmental disturbance and the relationship between population vital rates and level of disturbance should match that of the target. These conditions are unlikely to pertain in most circumstances and the use of substitute species to predict endangered populations' responses to disturbance is questionable.     

Female spawning patterns and male mating success in the sand goby Pomatoschistus minutus

In June 1989 in a study conducted near Träminne Zoological Station, Finland (60° N 23° E) I investigated whether or not male mating success could be explained by female choice for male size in sand gobies (Pomatoschistus minutus). Male mating success was constrained by nest size and increased markedly with increasing nest size. I also found a negative correlation between the length of spawning females and the fullness of the nest. As large females lay more eggs, they also need to find a nest with more space available for the eggs. The size of males without eggs was the same across nest size, whereas the size of males with eggs significantly increased with increasing nest size. This is interpreted as female discrimination against males as mates in nests that are often contested. There was no correlation between a male's size and his mating success when males with no eggs in their nests were excluded. A male removal experiment, however, showed that, in a specific nest, when male size increases so does mating success, whereas, if male size decreases, mating success also decreases. It is concluded that in the sand goby females prefer to mate with larger males, especially when the male possesses a high-quality nest that he most probably will have to defend against other males.     

Inter-litter competition and communal nursing among Norway rats: advantages of birth synchrony

Summary The effect of inter-litter competition on pup survival was investigated in pairs of female rats (Rattus norvegicus) living and breeding in the same environment. If a female gave birth when a 0- to 14-day-old litter was already present in the environment, her pups had a very high chance of surviving, similar to the situation in which no other litter was present. Moreover, the mother was likely to nurse communally with the mother of the 0- to 14-day-old litter. This communal nursing benefitted the newborn pups as evidenced by their being heavier at weaning than litters that were not nursed communally. In contrast, if a female gave birth when a 15-to 28-day-old litter was already present in the environment, her newborn pups were likely to die within 3 days postpartum, owing to the fact that they were often prevented from suckling at their mother's teats, resulting in milk deprivation, and were often beneath the older pups, resulting in physical trauma. These findings suggest that inter-litter competition is an important source of pup mortality when litters are born 15-28 days apart. The data are discussed in terms of the advantages of birth synchrony.     

An evaluation of three statistical methods used to model resource selection

The performance of statistical methods for modeling resource selection by animals is difficult to evaluate with field data because true selection patterns are unknown. Simulated data based on a known probability distribution, though, can be used to evaluate statistical methods. Models should estimate true selection patterns if they are to be useful in analyzing and interpreting field data. We used simulation techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of three statistical methods used in modeling resource selection. We generated 25 use locations per animal and included 10, 20, 40, or 80 animals in samples of use locations. To simulate species of different mobility, we generated use locations at four levels according to a known probability distribution across DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, USA. We either generated 5 random locations per use location or 10,000 random locations (total) within 4 predetermined areas around use locations to determine how the definition of availability and the number of random locations affected results. We analyzed simulated data using discrete choice, logistic-regression, and a maximum entropy method (Maxent). We used a simple linear regression of estimated and known probability distributions and area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) to evaluate the performance of each method. Each statistical method was affected differently by number of animals and random locations used in analyses, level at which selection of resources occurred, and area considered available. Discrete-choice modeling resulted in precise and accurate estimates of the true probability distribution when the area in which use locations were generated was ≥ the area defined to be available. Logistic-regression models were unbiased and precise when the area in which use locations were generated and the area defined to be available were the same size; the fit of these models improved with increased numbers of random locations. Maxent resulted in unbiased and precise estimates of the known probability distribution when the area in which use locations were generated was small (home-range level) and the area defined to be available was large (study area). Based on AUC analyses, all models estimated the selection distribution better than random chance. Results from AUC analyses, however, often contradicted results of the linear regression method used to evaluate model performance. Discrete-choice modeling was best able to estimate the known selection distribution in our study area regardless of sample size or number of random locations used in the analyses, but we recommend further studies using simulated data over different landscapes and different resource metrics to confirm our results. Our study offers an approach and guidance for others interested in assessing the utility of techniques for modeling resource selection in their study area.     

Modeling resource selection using polytomous logistic regression and kernel density estimates

Wildlife resource selection studies typically compare used to available resources; selection or avoidance occurs when use is disproportionately greater or less than availability. Comparing used to available resources is problematic because results are often greatly influenced by what is considered available to the animal. Moreover, placing relocation points within resource units is often difficult due to radiotelemetry and mapping errors. Given these problems, we suggest that an animal’s resource use be summarized at the scale of the home range (i.e., the spatial distribution of all point locations of an animal) rather than by individual points that are considered used or available. To account for differences in use-intensity throughout an animal’s home range, we model resource selection using kernel density estimates and polytomous logistic regression. We present a case study of elk (Cervus elaphus) resource selection in South Dakota to illustrate the procedure. There are several advantages of our proposed approach. First, resource availability goes undefined by the investigator, which is a difficult and often arbitrary decision. Instead, the technique compares the intensity of animal use throughout the home range. This technique also avoids problems with classifying locations rigidly as used or unused. Second, location coordinates do not need to be placed within mapped resource units, which is problematic given mapping and telemetry error. Finally, resource use is considered at an appropriate scale for management because most wildlife resource decisions are made at the level of the patch. Despite the advantages of this use-intensity procedure, future research should address spatial autocorrelation and develop spatial models for ordered categorical variables.     

Female territoriality and the function of scent-marking in a monogamous antelope (Oreotragus oreotragus)

In monogamous species, females often choose between males according to the quality of the territories they defend, but the extent to which females themselves contribute to territory defence is frequently underestimated. Here we test for differences in male and female roles during paired scent-marking bouts, a key component of territorial defence, in a monogamous antelope. In two populations (Kenya, Zimbabwe) of klipspringer, Oreotragus oreotragus, both males and females usually scent-marked at the same site, but there were significant differences between sexes in terms of investment within bouts. Females initiated most bouts, thus dictating the marking strategy of the pair. Males initiated relatively few bouts, but deposited more scent marks per bout than females and were usually the last to scent-mark before leaving the site; they marked on the same branches as the female and thus overmarked her scent. Both sexes deposited more marks during paired than solo visits. Immediately preceding and following scent-marking bouts, males approached females and females left males more often than expected. Female scent-marking rates were higher when they were receptive than at other times, and this increase was matched by elevated marking rates of males. Females may increase marking rates when they are receptive in order to test the quality of their mate or to incite male competition. However, these ideas are unlikely to explain female scent-marking behaviour outside the mating season, which appears to be related primarily to territorial defence. We suggest that these differences in investment in scent-marking bouts are consistent with predictions that females may be autonomously territorial and that overmarking of female scent by males is a form of mate-guarding. Received: 17 November 1999 / Received in revised form: 24 February 2000 / Accepted: 13 March 2000     

Novel features of an inducible defense system in larval tree frogs (Hyla chrysoscelis)

Organisms in aquatic ecosystems must often tolerate variable environmental conditions, including an uncertain risk of predation. Individuals that can maintain plastic defenses against predation will increase their survival when predators are present, but will not incur the costs of these defenses when the risk of predation is low and the defense is not induced. Larvae of the pond-breeding anuran Hyla chrysoscelis develop a conspicuous phenotype in the presence of predators consisting of a brightly colored tail and a deeper tail fin. In this study, I attempted to identify the source of the chemical signal that induces this defensive morphology in this species. I tested whether metabolites alone, originating from the prey but passing through the predator, were able to induce the same morphological response as the combination of alarm signals released directly by attacked conspecifics, and metabolites. I used morphometric and tail conspicuousness data to assess tadpole response to the perceived risk of predation by larval odonate predators (Anax junius). I also tested whether this inducing cue could be recognized across species by measuring the morphological response of H. chrysoscelis tadpoles exposed to cues emitted when tadpoles of a closely related genus (Pseudacris crucifer) were consumed. Tadpoles exhibited a clean graded response of both overall shape and tail morphology in response to all cues, corresponding to their relative reliability as indicators of a risk of predation. H. chrysoscelis tadpoles were also able to respond to cues emitted when tadpoles of a closely related genus were consumed by predators. These results illustrate that tadpoles of this species are able to respond to metabolites alone without alarm signals, and that interspecific chemical communication is a primary mechanism for predator avoidance in this inducible defense system.     

A Framework for Developing Objective and Measurable Recovery Criteria for Threatened and Endangered Species

For species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service are tasked with writing recovery plans that include “objective, measurable criteria” that define when a species is no longer at risk of extinction, but neither the act itself nor agency guidelines provide an explicit definition of objective, measurable criteria. Past reviews of recovery plans, including one published in 2012, show that many criteria lack quantitative metrics with clear biological rationale and are not meeting the measureable and objective mandate. I reviewed how objective, measureable criteria have been defined implicitly and explicitly in peer‐reviewed literature, the ESA, other U.S. statutes, and legal decisions. Based on a synthesis of these sources, I propose the following 6 standards be used as minimum requirements for objective, measurable criteria: contain a quantitative threshold with calculable units, stipulate a timeframe over which they must be met, explicitly define the spatial extent or population to which they apply, specify a sampling procedure that includes sample size, specify a statistical significance level, and include justification by providing scientific evidence that the criteria define a species whose extinction risk has been reduced to the desired level. To meet these 6 standards, I suggest that recovery plans be explicitly guided by and organized around a population viability modeling framework even if data or agency resources are too limited to complete a viability model. When data and resources are available, recovery criteria can be developed from the population viability model results, but when data and resources are insufficient for model implementation, extinction risk thresholds can be used as criteria. A recovery‐planning approach centered on viability modeling will also yield appropriately focused data‐acquisition and monitoring plans and will facilitate a seamless transition from recovery planning to delisting. Un Marco de Referencia para Desarrollar Criterios de Recuperación Objetivos y Medibles para Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro     

Assessing Suitability for Conservation Action: Prioritizing Interpond Linkages for the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Conservation organizations and public agencies are interested in identifying and prioritizing areas for conservation action, often acquisition or easements. Typically, this requires the use of uncertain data and vaguely defined decision criteria. I developed a decision support system to address these uncertainty issues and assist in evaluating conservation opportunities for the endangered California tiger salamander ( Ambystoma californiense ) in Santa Barbara, California. Functionally defined planning units were used to aggregate data on land suitability, land cover change, salamander presence, and movement risk along potential linkages between breeding ponds. I used a fuzzy-logic-based inference engine to evaluate the planning units and rank the relative suitability of interpond linkages for conservation action. The sensitivity of the rankings was considered with respect to uncertainty in salamander occurrence data and the relationship between land-cover-change threats and site suitability. All linkages were substantially degraded, but five areas were consistently identified with high relative suitability for conservation action despite differences in assumptions and uncertainty in biological data. The combination of functionally defined planning units and a fuzzy-logic-based decision support system provides a general framework for considering the suitability of sites for conservation action.     

Combining multistate capture-recapture data with tag recoveries to estimate demographic parameters

Matrix population models that allow an animal to occupy more than one state over time are important tools for population and evolutionary ecologists. Definition of state can vary, including location for metapopulation models and breeding state for life history models. For populations whose members can be marked and subsequently reencountered, multistate mark-recapture models are available to estimate the survival and transition probabilities needed to construct population models. Multistate models have proved extremely useful in this context, but they often require a substantial amount of data and restrict estimation of transition probabilities to those areas or states subjected to formal sampling effort. At the same time, for many species, there are considerable tag recovery data provided by the public that could be modeled in order to increase precision and to extend inference to a greater number of areas or states. Here we present a statistical model for combining multistate capture-recapture data (e.g., from a breeding ground study) with multistate tag recovery data (e.g., from wintering grounds). We use this method to analyze data from a study of Canada Geese (Branta canadensis) in the Atlantic Flyway of North America. Our analysis produced marginal improvement in precision, due to relatively few recoveries, but we demonstrate how precision could be further improved with increases in the probability that a retrieved tag is reported.     

Cryptic multiple hypotheses testing in linear models: overestimated effect sizes and the winner's curse

Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the probability of finding at least one ‘significant’ effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies (‘the winner's curse’). Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation also of non-significant results.     

The dynamics of brood desertion among communally breeding females in the treehopper, Publilia concava

In species that exhibit extended parental care, females sometimes lay eggs communally in order to redistribute the costs of offspring care. Communal egg-laying often involves redundancy in female effort, such that the number of females contributing to reproduction is more than is needed to provide adequate parental care. As a result, a subset of females will often abandon the communal brood, with the time of departure ranging from immediate abandonment after egg-laying (brood parasitism) to delayed abandonment with prolonged care (cooperative breeding). In this paper I approach the parental care dynamics of female-female broods as a desertion game similar to that of mate desertion in species with bi-parental care. I describe a field study of the insect Publilia concava (Hemiptera: Membracidae), a species that exhibits communal oviposition and a full range of egg guarding. This species exhibits full redundancy in female care, with no difference in survival between singly and doubly guarded broods. I find that double guarding is extremely rare in the population, with most communal broods having only one female guard. While this guard was usually the female that initiated the brood, these same females were more likely to abandon when secondary females arrived and when secondary females exhibited longer guarding durations. Paradoxically, the secondary females usually abandoned the broods they visited, resulting in up to 50% of broods with double abandonment. These unguarded broods suffered a 50% reduction in hatching success, reflecting an important risk for primary females that abandon egg masses to secondary females. Overall, P. concava exhibits desertion dynamics similar to mate desertion in vertebrates and it is likely that the theoretical work in this area will be useful for future work that addresses the allocation of parental care among communal breeders.     

Functional Equivalency between Rice Fields and Seminatural Wetland Habitats

Abstract: Evaluating the potential for anthropogenic habitats to act as surrogates for the natural habitats they replace is a key issue in conservation biology. In California, flooded rice fields are used by numerous aquatic birds during winter. If this habitat functions similarly to more natural wetlands, increased flooding may help replace the extensive wetlands that occurred in the region prior to agricultural development. I tested whether food abundance, perceived predation threat, foraging performance, and the way in which birds allocate their time to different behaviors differed between flooded rice fields and seminatural wetlands for several species of aquatic bird. When appropriate, I also compared flooded and unflooded fields. Invertebrate densities did not differ among habitats. Seminatural wetlands had less rice grain but more seeds from other plants than the two rice habitats. The frequency with which predators passed over a feeding area was lower in flooded fields than in unflooded fields or seminatural wetlands. Most differences in feeding performance and time allocation among habitats were small and statistically insignificant. For some species, feeding efficiency was greater in seminatural wetlands than in flooded fields. Increasing attack rates and the amount of time spent feeding when in flooded fields, however, may allow birds to compensate for reduced efficiency. Multivariate analyses showed that group size, predation threat, time of day, date, and water depth often were associated with behaviors, but that these variables rarely accounted for habitat differences. Flooded fields apparently provide equivalent foraging habitat to seminatural wetlands and, because of reduced predation threat, may be a safer habitat for waterbirds. Thus, if managed appropriately, one of the world's dominant forms of agriculture can provide valuable waterbird habitat.     

On the meta-analysis of response ratios for studies with correlated and multi-group designs

A common effect size metric used to quantify the outcome of experiments for ecological meta-analysis is the response ratio (RR): the log proportional change in the means of a treatment and control group. Estimates of the variance of RR are also important for meta-analysis because they serve as weights when effect sizes are averaged and compared. The variance of an effect size is typically a function of sampling error; however, it can also be influenced by study design. Here, I derive new variances and covariances for RR for several often-encountered experimental designs: when the treatment and control means are correlated; when multiple treatments have a common control; when means are based on repeated measures; and when the study has a correlated factorial design, or is multivariate. These developments are useful for improving the quality of data extracted from studies for meta-analysis and help address some of the common challenges meta-analysts face when quantifying a diversity of experimental designs with the response ratio.     

Sex,food and conflicts: nutrition dependent nuptial feeding and pre-mating struggles in scorpionflies

Female and male reproductive interests often differ. In species in which matings are accompanied by a transfer of resources valuable for both participants, such as nuptial prey gifts, conflicts may readily occur. Scorpionflies may use alternative mating tactics. One is to offer a prey item (dead arthropod) to females in exchange for mating. This prey gift tactic includes a conflict because a male must decide on whether to offer the gift rather than to fight the female and consume the gift. The outcome may depend on the nutritional status of both males and females. Males may be more willing to give if they themselves are satiated and the condition of the females may influence the payoff from the males’ investment. Similarly, females may be more willing to accept food gifts if they are in poor nutritional condition. In this study of the scorpionfly Panorpa cognata, I experimentally manipulated the feeding history of both males and females. I observed the outcome of the direct interactions that followed when males that were holding prey were approached by females. I found that well-fed males offered the food gift sooner than males in poor nutritional condition that fed extensively on the food item before offering. Female condition had no significant influence on whether prey items were offered by males or accepted by females. I also found that well-fed males rarely searched for prey to pursue the prey gift tactic in courtship. Thus, the prey tactic does not seem to be the males’ first option.