Visibility: science and regulation

The 1999 Regional Haze Rule provides a context for this review of visibility, the science that describes it, and the use of that science in regulatory guidance. The scientific basis for the 1999 regulation is adequate. The deciview metric that tracks progress is an imperfect but objective measure of what people see near the prevailing visual range. The definition of natural visibility conditions is adequate for current planning, but it will need to be refined as visibility improves. Emissions from other countries will set achievable levels above those produced by natural sources. Some natural events, notably dust storms and wildfires, are episodic and cannot be represented by annual average background values or emission estimates. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission reductions correspond with lower sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations and visibility improvements in the regions where these have occurred. Non-road emissions have been growing more rapidly than emissions from other sources, which have remained stable or decreased since 1970. Simpler models representing transport, limiting precursor pollutants, and gas-to-particle equilibrium should be used to understand where and when emission reductions will be effective, rather than large complex models that have insufficient input and validation measurements. Examples of model-based source attribution show large differences among estimates from various modeling systems and with ambient measurements.     

Photochemical oxidants: state of the science

Atmospheric photochemical processes resulting in the production of tropospheric ozone (O(3)) and other oxidants are described. The spatial and temporal variabilities in the occurrence of surface level oxidants and their relationships to air pollution meteorology are discussed. Models of photooxidant formation are reviewed in the context of control strategies and comparisons are provided of the air concentrations of O(3) at select geographic locations around the world. This overall oxidant (O(3)) climatology is coupled to human health and ecological effects. The discussion of the effects includes both acute and chronic responses, mechanisms of action, human epidemiological and plant population studies and briefly, efforts to establish cause-effect relationships through numerical modeling. A short synopsis is provided of the interactive effects of O(3) with other abiotic and biotic factors. The overall emphasis of the paper is on identifying the current uncertainties and gaps in our understanding of the state of the science and some suggestions as to how they may be addressed.     

Global change: state of the science

Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations.     

Phosphorus removal and recovery: state of the science and challenges

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Phosphorus is one of the main nutrients required for all life. Phosphorus as phosphate form plays an important role in different cellular processes....     

Climate change decision-making: science, policy and economics

The threat of global climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to humanity. Although climate change is potentially important, it is crucial to recognise also that (especially for the developing countries) there are a number of other priorities that affect human welfare more immediately - such as hunger and malnutrition, poverty, health, and pressing local environmental issues. In this context, predictions about climate change, its impacts, and the costs of mitigation are important for the policy-making dimension, because climate change issues reside within broader questions about sustainable development. One major objective of human development is sustainability, and the pursuit of greater precision in climate prediction can help with progress toward this goal.     

Putting humans in ecology: consistency in science and management

Normal and abnormal levels of human participation in ecosystems can be revealed through the use of macro-ecological patterns. Such patterns also provide consistent and objective guidance that will lead to achieving and maintaining ecosystem health and sustainability. This paper focuses on the consistency of this type of guidance and management. Such management, in sharp contrast to current management practices, ensures that our actions as individuals, institutions, political groups, societies, and as a species are applied consistently across all temporal, spatial, and organizational scales. This approach supplants management of today, where inconsistency results from debate, politics, and legal and religious polarity. Consistency is achieved when human endeavors are guided by natural patterns. Pattern-based management meets long-standing demands for enlightened management that requires humans to participate in complex systems in consistent and sustainable ways.     

Modelling episodic acidification of surface waters: the state of science

Field studies of chemical changes in surface waters associated with rainfall and snowmelt events have provided evidence of episodic acidification of lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Modelling these chemical changes is particularly challenging because of the variability associated with hydrological transport and chemical transformation processes in catchments. This paper provides a review of mathematical models that have been applied to the problem of episodic acidification. Several empirical approaches, including regression models, mixing models and time series models, support a strong hydrological interpretation of episodic acidification. Regional application of several models has suggested that acidic episodes (in which the acid neutralizing capacity becomes negative) are relatively common in surface waters in several regions of the US that receive acid deposition. Results from physically based models have suggested a lack of understanding of hydrological flowpaths, hydraulic residence times and biogeochemical reactions, particularly those involving aluminum. The ability to better predict episodic chemical responses of surface waters is thus dependent upon elucidation of these and other physical and chemical processes.     

Mapping species distributions: A comparison of skilled naturalist and lay citizen science recording

To assess the ability of traditional biological recording schemes and lay citizen science approaches to gather data on species distributions and changes therein, we examined bumblebee records from the UK’s national repository (National Biodiversity Network) and from BeeWatch. The two recording approaches revealed similar relative abundances of bumblebee species but different geographical distributions. For the widespread common carder (Bombus pascuorum), traditional recording scheme data were patchy, both spatially and temporally, reflecting active record centre rather than species distribution. Lay citizen science records displayed more extensive geographic coverage, reflecting human population density, thus offering better opportunities to account for recording effort. For the rapidly spreading tree bumblebee (Bombus hypnorum), both recording approaches revealed similar distributions due to a dedicated mapping project which overcame the patchy nature of naturalist records. We recommend, where possible, complementing skilled naturalist recording with lay citizen science programmes to obtain a nation-wide capability, and stress the need for timely uploading of data to the national repository.     

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs): state of the science

The environmental chemistry and ecotoxicology of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are fascinating areas of scientific research. Our objective in this paper is to provide a brief, focussed overview of what constitutes a POP, highlight the harmful effects they may have on biota, make some comments on their environmental sources and analysis, their environmental trends and processes, their movement through foodchains and highlight some important regional-and global-scale environmental transport issues. Finally, we offer some personal thoughts on some current and future areas of scientific enquiry on POPs.     

Molecular tools for bathing water assessment in Europe: Balancing social science research with a rapidly developing environmental science evidence-base

The use of molecular tools, principally qPCR, versus traditional culture-based methods for quantifying microbial parameters (e.g., Fecal Indicator Organisms) in bathing waters generates considerable ongoing debate at the science–policy interface. Advances in science have allowed the development and application of molecular biological methods for rapid (~2 h) quantification of microbial pollution in bathing and recreational waters. In contrast, culture-based methods can take between 18 and 96 h for sample processing. Thus, molecular tools offer an opportunity to provide a more meaningful statement of microbial risk to water-users by providing near-real-time information enabling potentially more informed decision-making with regard to water-based activities. However, complementary studies concerning the potential costs and benefits of adopting rapid methods as a regulatory tool are in short supply. We report on findings from an international Working Group that examined the breadth of social impacts, challenges, and research opportunities associated with the application of molecular tools to bathing water regulations.     

Emissions and risks associated with oxyfuel combustion: State of the science and critical data gaps

Oxyfuel combustion is a promising technology that may greatly facilitate carbon capture and sequestration by increasing the relative CO₂ content of the combustion emission stream. However, the potential effect of enhanced oxygen combustion conditions on emissions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants (e.g., acid gases, particulates, metals and organics) is not well studied. It is possible that combustion under oxyfuel conditions could produce emissions posing different risks than those currently being managed by the power industry (e.g., by changing the valence state of metals). The data available for addressing these concerns are quite limited and are typically derived from laboratory-scale or pilot-scale tests. A review of the available data does suggest that oxyfuel combustion may decrease the air emissions of some pollutants (e.g., SO₂, NOx, particulates) whereas data for other pollutants are too limited to draw any conclusions. The oxy-combustion systems that have been proposed to date do not have a conventional “stack” and combustion flue gas is treated in such a way that solid or liquid waste streams are the major outputs. Use of this technology will therefore shift emissions from air to solid or liquid waste streams, but the risk management implications of this potential change have yet to be assessed. Truly useful studies of the potential effects of oxyfuel combustion on power plant emissions will require construction of integrated systems containing a combustion system coupled to a CO₂ processing unit. Sampling and analysis to assess potential emission effects should be an essential part of integrated system tests.

Implications: Oxyfuel combustion may facilitate carbon capture and sequestration by increasing the relative CO₂ content of the combustion emission stream. However, the potential effect of enhanced oxygen combustion conditions on emissions of criteria and hazardous air pollutants has not been well studied. Combustion under oxyfuel conditions could produce emissions posing different risks than those currently being managed by the power industry. Therefore, before moving further with oxyfuel combustion as a new technology, it is appropriate to summarize the current understanding of potential emissions risk and to identify data gaps as priorities for future research.