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1.
Recruitment of labroid fishes to a lagoonal habitat within each of 7 reefs in the Capricorn/Bunker Group on the Great Barrier Reef was recorded for 2 yr (April 1982–April 1983). The density of recruitment of a species on one reef was not a good indicator of its density on other reefs. There were significant differences in the levels of recruitment between years. For several species, the ranking of reefs according to density of recruitment changed between years and the ranking of the two years changed among reefs. Recruitment varied differently for each species. Southern reefs were ranked more highly than northern reefs overall, but no North-South gradient was apparent. Populations of labroid fishes in the Capricorn/Bunker Group experience unpredictable variations in recruitment.  相似文献   

2.
Unplanned natural and anthropogenic disasters provide unique opportunities for investigating the influence of perturbations on population vital rates and species recovery times. We investigated the potential effects of a major pesticide spill by comparing annual survival rates using mark-recapture techniques on a riparian bat species, Yuma Myotis (Myotis yumanensis). Demography and population dynamics for most bat species remain poorly understood despite advances in mark-recapture estimation and modeling techniques. We compared survival and population growth rates of two roost populations exposed to a large chemical (metam sodium) spill in the upper Sacramento River in Northern California with two roost populations outside the contaminated area from 1992 to 1996. Hypotheses about long-term effects of the spill on female juvenile and adult survival were tested using an information-theoretic approach (AIC). Working hypotheses included effects of age, chemical spill, and time trend on survival. Female adult survival was higher than female juvenile survival across all sites, suggesting stage-specific mortality risks. Model-averaged estimates of female juvenile survival in the contaminated area (0.50-0.74) were lower than in control roosts (0.60-0.78) for each year in the study, suggesting that the spill may have reduced juvenile survival for several years. Female adult survival (0.73-0.89) did not appear to be strongly affected by the spill during the years of the study. There was an increase in survival for both stage-classes across all populations during the study period, which may have been caused by the end of an extended drought in California in the winter of 1993. The spill-affected population was in decline for the first year of the study as indicated by an estimated growth rate (lambda) < 1, but population growth rates increased during the four-year period.  相似文献   

3.
In 1983/1984,Diadema antillarum suffered mass mortalities throughout its West Atlantic range. Its populations were reduced by 95% and subsequently have failed to recover. These die-offs led to sustained increases in the abundance of soft algae, including types eaten by herbivorous reef fishes. I monitored adult populations of three herbivorous surgeonfishes (Acanthurus coeruleus, A. chirurugus andA. bahianus) between 1978 and 1990, and the recruitment of their pelagic juveniles between 1979 and 1989, on six patch reefs in Panamá. Adult populations ofA. coeruleus andA. chirurgus, which largely restrict their feeding to reef substrata, increased by averages of 250 and 160%, respectively, after the die-off ofD. antillarum in 1983. No increases occurred in the adult populations ofA. bahianus, which often feeds in off-reef habitats unaffected byD. antillarum. Average annual levels of juvenile recruitment of all three surgeonfishes did not differ before and after the die-off. These results support the hypothesis that adult populations of two herbivorous fishes that are strongly reliant on reef algae for food previously were limited by competition withD. antillarum.  相似文献   

4.
Wide-ranging marine species are often described as having a low effective population size (N e) to census size (N) ratio. This genetic phenomenon is typically attributed to large variation among individuals in reproductive success because of the high mortality rates and unpredictable environments associated with larval dispersal. In this study, we examined patterns of genetic variation in gag (Mycteroperca microlepis) on the West Florida Shelf across year classes of post-settlement juveniles and spawning adults. With no significant genetic differentiation among year classes despite varying recruitment dynamics, little evidence for chaotic genetic patchiness, and no truncation of adult genetic diversity in subsequent juvenile cohorts, there was little support for large variation among individual in reproductive success contributing to a low N e/N ratio. In fact, the consistent lack of significant differences in annual recruitment classes indicated that reproductive success among individuals was resistant to skewing. Among the various evolutionary forces that may be affecting N e, changes to demography due to fishing pressure are posited as a likely mechanism affecting current levels of genetic variation.  相似文献   

5.
The region of Madang, Papua New Guinea, has the highest reported species diversity of both anemonefishes (nine species) and their host anemones (ten species). To determine which factors may allow so many anemonefish species to coexist at this location, we studied their patterns of distribution, abundance, and recruitment. Population surveys at three replicate reef sites within four zones situated at varying distances from the mainland (nearshore, mid-lagoon, outer barrier, and offshore) indicated that each species of host anemone and anemonefish lived within a particular range of zones. Each species of anemonefish lived primarily with one species of host. Anemonefish species that lived with the same host species usually had different distribution patterns among zones (e.g., Amphiprion percula occupied Heteractis magnifica in nearshore zones, while A. perideraion occupied H. magnifica in offshore zones). Monitoring of natural populations showed that there were few changes (losses or recruitment) in the number or species of fishes associated with each individual anemone over periods ranging from 3 to 9 months. Recruitment was monitored on anemones with and without residents (resident fishes were removed) within each of three zones (nearshore, mid-lagoon, outer barrier). Significantly more anemonefishes recruited to anemones without resident fishes than to anemones with resident fishes. Each anemonefish species recruited to particular host species and zones. The distribution and abundance of the recruits of each fish species among zones were positively correlated with the distribution and abundance of resident fishes in the benthic habitat. This suggests that the spatial patterns of recruitment among zones strongly determined the distribution and abundance patterns of the benthic populations, and they were not the result of post-recruitment mortality or movement. Coexistence of the nine anemonefish species on the limited anemone resource was considered possible because of niche differentiation (i.e., differences in host and habitat utilization among zones), and the ability of two small species (i.e., Amphiprion sandaracinos and A. leucokranos) to cohabit individual anemones with other anemonefish species. Received: 29 July 1999 / Accepted: 1 September 2000  相似文献   

6.
Fishes using mangrove (Avicennia marina) and mudflat habitat were sampled using three different types of gear (seine, fyke, and gill nets) at three sites within each of two large embayments through time (quarterly) between January 2002 and November 2002. At least 41 species of fish were sampled, of which 78% were marine, 17% were estuarine, and 5% were freshwater. Juveniles were sampled in 41% of the species, and 5 and 6 species occurred exclusively in mangrove and mudflat habitats, respectively. The assemblage structure of fishes varied significantly between habitats (for both fyke and seine catches) and between spring and summer (seine catches), but only in one bay. Most of the variability between habitats and times of the year could be explained by differences in abundances of atherinids, mugulids, gobiids, tetraodontids, pleuronectids, and clupeids. Fyke nets sampled mainly juvenile and smaller species of fish. Fish abundance was always greater in mangroves than mudflats (but significantly so at four of the six study sites) and varied significantly between times of the year at one site, while the number of species varied significantly between times of the year at three sites. Gill nets sampled mostly adult/subadult fishes and abundances were greater in mudflats than mangroves at two sites, and in mangroves over mudflats at one site, while species abundance varied between times of the year at two sites. The seine net sampled mainly early post-settlement and small (<20 mm) fishes, more species of which were sampled in mudflat than mangrove during winter and spring, whereas the opposite pattern occurred in summer and autumn. The number of fish sampled with the seine net only varied significantly between habitats in one embayment during summer and spring, when they were larger and smaller, respectively, in mangroves than mudflats. Mangrove habitat in temperate Australian waters supports a richer juvenile fish assemblage than adjacent mudflats, but there is little difference between habitats for the subadult/adult assemblage. Ultimately, the value of mangrove habitats to fishes depends strongly on when and where (bays and sites within bays) the study is done.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley  相似文献   

7.
C. J. Hurlbut 《Marine Biology》1991,109(3):507-515
Recruitment of a group of co-occurring sessile invertebrates (a serpulid polychaete, an oyster, a bryozoan, and several colonial and one solitary ascidian) that encrust floating docks in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, was studied in August 1985. Daily photographs were taken of acrylic settling plates over a 14 d period, and daily settlement and juvenile mortality were measured. Settlement rates were compared between species and days, while juvenile mortalities were compared between species, days, juvenile ages and densities of juveniles on the plates. Species differed in abundance of both settlers and juveniles, and in rate and pattern of juvenile mortality. Settlement intensity varied between days for some species. Significant juvenile mortality occurred during the 14 d for most species; it appeared to be caused by fish predation. For two species, mortality varied with juvenile age, with older individuals suffering higher mortality. Mortality was density-dependent for some species, increasing with numbers of juveniles on the plates. Mortality patterns varied even within the colonial species. Assessing larval settlement and juvenile mortality for a single species or type of organism in a community thus may not indicate that similar patterns exist for co-occurring species.  相似文献   

8.
Pike DA  Pizzatto L  Pike BA  Shine R 《Ecology》2008,89(3):607-611
Survival rates of juvenile reptiles are critical population parameters but are difficult to obtain through mark-recapture programs because these small, secretive animals are rarely caught. This scarcity has encouraged speculation that survival rates of juveniles are very low, and we test this prediction by estimating juvenile survival rates indirectly. A simple mathematical model calculates the annual juvenile survival rate needed to maintain a stable population size, using published data on adult survival rates, reproductive output, and ages at maturity in 109 reptile populations encompassing 57 species. Counter to prediction, estimated juvenile survival rates were relatively high (on average, only about 13% less than those of conspecific adults) and highly correlated with adult survival rates. Overall, survival rates during both juvenile and adult life were higher in turtles than in snakes, and higher in snakes than in lizards. As predicted from life history theory, rates of juvenile survival were higher in species that produce large offspring, and higher in viviparous squamates than in oviparous species. Our analyses challenge the widely held belief that juvenile reptiles have low rates of annual survival and suggest instead that sampling problems and the elusive biology of juvenile reptiles have misled researchers in this respect.  相似文献   

9.
Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture-mark-recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.  相似文献   

10.
Simultaneous estimation of survival, reproduction, and movement is essential to understanding how species maximize lifetime reproduction in environments that vary across space and time. We conducted a four-year, capture-recapture study of three populations of eastern tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum tigrinum) and used multistate mark-recapture statistical methods to estimate the manner in which movement, survival, and breeding probabilities vary under different environmental conditions across years and among populations and habitats. We inferred how individuals may mitigate risks of mortality and reproductive failure by deferring breeding or by moving among populations. Movement probabilities among populations were extremely low despite high spatiotemporal variation in reproductive success and survival, suggesting possible costs to movements among breeding ponds. Breeding probabilities varied between wet and dry years and according to whether or not breeding was attempted in the previous year. Estimates of survival in the nonbreeding, forest habitat varied among populations but were consistent across time. Survival in breeding ponds was generally high in years with average or high precipitation, except for males in an especially ephemeral pond. A drought year incurred severe survival costs in all ponds to animals that attempted breeding. Female salamanders appear to defer these episodic survival costs of breeding by choosing not to breed in years when the risk of adult mortality is high. Using stochastic simulations of survival and breeding under historical climate conditions, we found that an interaction between breeding probabilities and mortality limits the probability of multiple breeding attempts differently between the sexes and among populations.  相似文献   

11.
For marine organisms, decoupling between the planktonic larval stage and the benthic-associated juvenile stage can lead to variable patterns of population replenishment, which have the potential to influence the effectiveness of marine reserves. We measured spatial and temporal variability in larval supply and recruitment of fishes to coral reefs of different protection levels and tested whether protection level influenced the relationship between supply and recruitment. We sampled pre-settlement larvae and newly settled recruits from four reefs (two reserves and two non-reserves) in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, USA. Replicate point measures of larval supply over 14 months and 17 monthly measurements of recruitment varied significantly among months and sites. Sites with the same protection level had significantly different patterns of larval supply as well as larval and recruit diversity, but recruitment magnitude differed only by protection level, where densities were greater at reserves. Differences in larval supply among sites included two particularly large peaks in larval abundance at one site, possibly associated with the observed passage of small-scale oceanographic features. To examine whether relationships between larval supply and recruitment varied by protection level, we selected one species that was present in both the light trap samples and the monthly recruitment surveys. Recruitment of the bicolor damselfish Stegastes partitus was significantly and positively related to larval supply at three of the four sites thus, protection level did not influence this linkage. Since local variability among sites can lead to spatial differences in population replenishment, characterization of larval supply and recruitment to potential marine reserve sites may help to identify optimal locations in a region and contribute to more effective reserve design.  相似文献   

12.
Winter mortality has been hypothesized to select for large body size in young-of-the-year (YOY) fishes, yet substantiation of winter mortality and its cause(s) are available for few estuarine or marine species. We examined seasonal length distributions of wild populations of four common marine species, black sea bass (Centropristis striata), tautog (Tautoga onitis), cunner (Tautogolabrus adspersus), and smallmouth flounder (Etropus microstomus), and mortality (i.e., frequency of death), growth, and behavior of their YOY in the laboratory at ambient winter temperatures (mean 7°C, range 2-13°C) during a 135-day period (December 1992 through mid-April 1993) to establish potential causes of their mortality in the field. Young-of-the-year black sea bass experienced 100% mortality when water temperatures decreased to 2-3°C in February, emphasizing the importance of winter emigration from estuaries in this southern species. The low mortality of two labrid species, YOY tautog (14%) and YOY cunner (3%), was consistent with their northern distribution and year-round occurrence in estuarine and nearshore coastal waters. Laboratory mortality of YOY smallmouth flounder (33%) was higher for small (<35 mm total length) fish, suggesting that this small species may experience high winter mortality in estuaries and nearshore coastal waters. Seasonal differences in fish length result potentially from several mechanisms (e.g., mortality and/or migration) that are difficult to assess, but our laboratory experiments suggest that seasonal temperature changes cause size-specific mortality of YOY smallmouth flounder and offshore migration of YOY black sea bass.  相似文献   

13.
Johnson DW 《Ecology》2007,88(7):1716-1725
For species that have an open population structure, local population size may be strongly influenced by a combination of propagule supply and post-settlement survival. While it is widely recognized that supply of larvae (or recruits) is variable and that variable recruitment may affect the relative contribution of pre- and post-settlement factors, less effort has been made to quantify how variation in the strength of post-settlement mortality (particularly density-dependent mortality) will affect the importance of processes that determine population size. In this study, I examined the effects of habitat complexity on mortality of blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) within nearshore reefs off central California. I first tested whether variation in habitat complexity (measured as three-dimensional complexity of rocky substrate) affected the magnitude of both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. I then used limitation analysis to quantify how variation in habitat complexity alters the relative influence of recruitment, density-independent mortality, and density-dependent mortality in determining local population size. Increased habitat complexity was associated with a reduction in both density-independent and density-dependent mortality. At low levels of habitat complexity, limitation analysis revealed that mortality was strong and recruitment had relatively little influence on population size. However, as habitat complexity increased, recruitment became more important. At the highest levels of habitat complexity, limitation by recruitment was substantial, although density-dependent mortality was ultimately the largest constraint on population size. In high-complexity habitats, population dynamics may strongly reflect variation in recruitment even though fluctuations may be dampened by density-dependent mortality. By affecting both density-independent and density-dependent mortality, variation in habitat complexity may result in qualitative changes in the dynamics of populations. These findings suggest that the relative importance of pre- vs. post-settlement factors may be determined by quantifiable habitat features, rather than ambient recruitment level alone. Because the magnitude of recruitment fluctuations can affect species coexistence and the persistence of populations, habitat-driven changes in population dynamics may have important consequences for both community structure and population viability.  相似文献   

14.
We have studied growth, energy use and reproduction in 4 mesopelagic fishes and 5 bathypelagic fishes living off Southern California (USA). All of the mesopelagic species underwent diurnal vertical migrations, while none of the bathypelagic species did so. The life histories of these pelagic fishes were compared among themselves and with epipelagic sardines and anchovies studied by others. The epipelagic species had the highest growth rates (estimated from otoliths, expressed in standard length or kilocalories), the mesopelagic species had the lowest growth rates and the bathypelagic species had intermediate growth rates. The relatively rapid growth rates of the bathypelagic fishes were achieved by high relative growth efficiencies made possible by low metabolic rates. Of the species studied, the lifespans of the epipelagic and bathypelagic species ranged from 4 to 8 yr and the lifespans of mesopelagic species from 5 to 8 yr. Data on egg diameters suggest that the mesopelagic species first reproduce in their 3rd yr, while the bathypelagic species do so in their last year. Epipelagic fishes generally have a large size, rapid growth, long life and early, repeated reproduction. Mesopelagic fishes are characterized by small size, slow growth, long life and early, repeated reproduction. Bathypelagic fishes generally have large size, rapid growth, somewhat shorter lives and late reproduction, which is possible a single event. The latter pattern is evidently feasible only in a rather stable environment where juvenile survivorship would always display relatively low variability. Many unusual characteristics of deep-living animals have possibly been selected by factors peculiar to the environment; however, such characteristics are just as likely to have been selected by factors equally present in many other environments, but not expressed there due to masking selective forces. In particular, we have in mind the darkness, stability and homogeneity of the bathypelagic realm as phenomena which represent the effective absence of many selective forces.The first two authors contributed equally and their names are listed in alphabetical order  相似文献   

15.
There exists on Heron Reef, at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef, an 8-species guild of ecologically very similar, territorial, herbivorous reef fishes. All individuals of these species maintain territories on rubble substrata throughout juvenile and adult life. Territories are defended from all other guild members. Three rubble patches, each containing residents of 3 guild species: Pomacentrus apicalis, P. wardi, and Abudafduf lachrymatus, have been monitored for 12 to 18 months. This paper examines the patterns of use of space as shown by the antecedent and subsequent histories of sites chosen by 43 new colonists, and sites vacated through the loss of 34 residents on the rubble patches. In addition, variation through time is examined in the total amount of space held in territories on each rubble patch. The 3 species show similar preferences for space as colonists, although adult and juvenile colonists behave differently. Numbers of colonists detected on rubble patches are not proportional to the resident populations of the 3 species. Residents of the 3 species are equal in their abilities to enter spaces vacated through mortality, although they differ slightly in methods used to enter sites. They do not respond preferentially to sites previously occupied by any particular species. P. wardi shows a higher rate of mortality than the other species, and residents of this species are more often dislodged by new colonists. The total amount of space held on any rubble patch did not vary during the year from September, 1972 to October, 1973. The data are interpreted as supporting the hypothesis that the 3 species do not differ in their requirements for space on rubble patches, and that they are in competition for a short supply of such space. Differences exist in their strategies for obtaining and holding such space. These differences are important for explaining the continued presence of P. wardi on rubble patches. P. apicalis and a. lachrymatus are both specialists in holding territories on the upper reef slope. No differences have been detected in their requirements or competitive abilities. P. wardi is a fugitive species on the upper reef slope, coexisting because it maintains a refuge from competition by occupying some un-preferred sites off rubble patches.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract:  As in many regions of the world, marine fishes and invertebrates along the Pacific coast of the United States have long been subjected to overexploitation. Despite this history, however, we lack basic information on the current status of many fishes along this coastline. We used data from a quarter century of fishery-independent, coast-wide trawl surveys to study systematically the demersal fish assemblages along the U.S. Pacific coast. We documented fundamental shifts in this fish assemblage. Average fish size, across a diversity of species, has declined 45% in 21 years. There have been major shifts in the constituent species of the assemblage, with some species achieving annual population growth rates of >10% and others declining in excess of 10% per year. Annual rate of change in population size appeared to be a function of life history interacting with fishing pressure. Negative trends in population size were particularly apparent in rockfish ( Sebastes spp.). However, across all taxa examined, trends in population size were associated with size of maturity, maximum size, and growth rate. Trends in population size were associated inversely with harvest levels, but stocks that mature late tended to decline faster than would be predicted by catch rates alone. Our results are disquieting because they raise the possibility that fishing-induced phase shifts in fish communities may affect the recovery of fishes, even after the implementation of severe fishing restrictions.  相似文献   

17.
The specificity in settling response of larval Aplysia juliana (Quoy and Gaimard, 1832) on species of its food algae, Ulva spp., provided a rare opportunity for the quantitative study of recruitment and early survival rates in a non-sessile marine invertebrate. Post-metamorphic juveniles spend about 3 weeks feeding and growing on the algae before moving to the rocky habitat of the adults. Recruitment and survival were studied by collecting weekly samples of algae and holding them in the laboratory until the recruits were large enough to be seen and reliably counted. Recruitment occurred throughout the year, although the rates were relatively low in late winter and spring. Recruitment was monitored relative to algal weight and bottom area. Variation in larval abundance and algal standing crop influenced recruitment to the study area. Mortality during the juvenile stage was very high in all cases, although the rates and shapes of the survivorship curves varied between algal species and location.  相似文献   

18.
Effective conservation of endangered species often is hampered by inadequate knowledge of demography. We extracted information on survival and fecundity from an 18-month, live-trapping study of Dipodomys stephensi , and from this we developed an age-structured demographic model to assess population viability. Adult Stephens' kangaroo rats persisted longer than juveniles, and adult females persisted longer than adult males. Disappearance rates were high in the first months after initial capture. Thereafter, the fraction of animals persisting decreased slowly and in an approximately linear fashion on a semilogarithmic scale, suggesting age-independent mortality factors such as predation. Juvenile persistence did not differ substantially between two years of strikingly different rainfall. Onset of breeding followed the start of winter rains. Length of the breeding season, average number of litters per female, and the fraction of first-year females breeding were much greater in the year of higher rainfall. We propose a birth-pulse demographic model for D. stephensi that distinguishes juvenile and adult age classes. Temporal environmental variation can be modeled adequately with a constant survivorship schedule and variable fecundity determined by yearly precipitation. Several issues should be resolved, however, before conservation decisions are based on the model. Better estimates of juvenile survivorship are critical, the quantitative relationship between precipitation and fecundity must be determined, and the potential for density dependence and source-sink population dynamics must be evaluated.  相似文献   

19.
Management and Recovery Options for Ural River Beluga Sturgeon   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Abstract: Management of declining fisheries of anadromous species sometimes relies heavily on supplementation of populations with captive breeding, despite evidence that captive breeding can have negative consequences and may not address the root cause of decline. The beluga sturgeon (Huso huso), a species threatened by the market for black caviar and reductions in habitat quality, is managed through harvest control and hatchery supplementation, with an emphasis on the latter. We used yield per recruit and elasticity analyses to evaluate the population status and current levels of fishing and to identify the life‐history stages that are the best targets for conservation of beluga of the Ural River. Harvest rates in recent years were four to five times higher than rates that would sustain population abundance. Sustainable rates of fishing mortality are similar to those for other long‐lived marine species such as sharks and mammals. Yield per recruit, which is maximized if fish are first harvested at age 31 years, would be greatly enhanced by raising minimum size limits or reducing illegal take of subadults. Improving the survival of subadult and adult females would increase population productivity by 10 times that achieved by improving fecundity and survival from egg to age 1 year (i.e., hatchery supplementation). These results suggest that reducing mortality of subadults and adult wild fish is a more effective conservation strategy than hatchery supplementation. Because genetics is not factored into hatchery management practices, supplementation may even reduce the viability of the beluga sturgeon.  相似文献   

20.
The dynamics of a remnant population of the palm Neodypsis decaryi were characterized using a linear, stage-structured demographic model. This palm is a threatened keystone species restricted to a narrow ecological zone in southeastern Madagascar. The population showed high mortality rates in the early stages of the life cycle, followed by a period of lower adult mortality. Demographic results indicated that the population was either stable or increasing inside the reserve (λ m close to 1.0). Sensitivity and elasticity analyses indicated that adult stage classes were the most sensitive to producing changes in population growth rates. Continued biological monitoring is appropriate for the long-term conservation management of this palm inside the reserve. Outside the protected area the population appears to be declining rapidly, mainly because of anthropogenic effects (especially fire and grazing). If the conservation of Neodypsis decaryi is to be successful in the long term, then conservation methods must be carried out in cooperation with local villagers, and the species should be managed as a renewable resource in situ and ex situ. In situ conservation should include cultivation of this species throughout its natural range and protection of the existing viable natural populations. Alternative conservation management practices, both ecologically and economically sustainable, may be useful to alleviate the human pressures on this renewable resource. If leaves of N. decaryi are to be harvested by local people, we recommend restricting annual harvesting to about 25% of leaves per tree per year. Based on sensitivity analysis, seed collection should be kept well below 95% of the yearly crop if harvesting is not to have a significant impact on population growth rates.  相似文献   

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