Climate Change Impacts and Human Settlements in Africa: Prospects for Adaptation

Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments.Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations.Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy.Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation.The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities.Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared.Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.     

Sharing the geo-Referenced Results of Climate Change Impact Research

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies.     

Coping with climate change related conflicts – The first framework to identify and tackle these emerging topics

Climate change is supposed to exacerbate conflicts arising from resource scarcity and contrasting objectives. Some European authors highlighted already the need to look at conflicting interests when elaborating and applying adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study analysed the level of consideration of these emerging topics arising through increased competition of resources, contrasting interests, climate change adaptation as well as mitigation measures for Austria and Southern Germany in detail. Furthermore, it surveyed the application of possible approaches for conflict prevention and mitigation in an international perspective and additionally examined the particular role of SEA as one of the instruments to cope with conflicts related to climate change. The results express the strong need to look at emerging conflicts in cross-sectoral and sectoral adaptation early enough and a strategic perspective. Based on the content analysis of the Austrian and German adaptation and mitigation documents, expert interviews as well as the international literature review, a rather low consideration of these emerging topics as well as approaches to cope with them became evident. In response to these deficiencies, the paper introduces a first framework to identify and tackle emerging and exacerbated conflicts related to climate change. This novel framework is internationally applicable. In the final step of the framework approaches to prevent and minimize conflicts are the key topic. Among these approaches, SEA could take a leading role in case mandatory planning instruments cover the topics related to potential or existing exacerbated fields of conflicts. Overall a mix of formal and informal instruments and a more cross-sectoral perspective seems necessary. To this aim, the paper introduces four main guiding principles to consider and minimize up-coming conflicting topics.     

Viability analysis of management frameworks for fisheries

The pressure on marine renewable resources has rapidly increased over past decades. The resulting scarcity has led to a variety of different control and surveillance instruments. Often they have not improved the current situation, mainly due to institutional failure and intrinsic uncertainties about the state of stocks. This contribution presents an assessment of different management schemes with respect to predefined constraints by utilizing viability theory. Our analysis is based on a bio-economic model which is examined as a dynamic control system in continuous time. Feasible development paths are discussed in detail. It is shown that participatory management may lead to serious problems if a purely resource-based management strategy is employed. The analysis suggests that a less risky management strategy can be implemented if limited data are available.     

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change.     

Review of Mathematical Programming Applications in Water Resource Management Under Uncertainty

Economic development, variation in weather patterns and natural disasters focus attention on the management of water resources. This paper reviews the literature on the development of mathematical programming models for water resource management under uncertainty between 2010 and 2017. A systematic search of the academic literature identified 448 journal articles on water resource management for examination. Bibliometric analysis is employed to investigate the methods that researchers are currently using to address this problem and to identify recent trends in research in the area. The research reveals that stochastic dynamic programming and multistage stochastic programming are the methods most commonly applied. Water resource allocation, climate change, water quality and agricultural irrigation are amongst the most frequently discussed topics in the literature. A more detailed examination of the literature on each of these topics is included. The findings suggest that there is a need for mathematical programming models of large-scale water systems that deal with uncertainty and multiobjectives in an effective and computationally efficient way.     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

The Contribution of Mathematical Models to Climate Policy Design: a Researcher’s Perspective

Energy and the environment are closely interconnected. In particular, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are major contributors to climate change. To analyze options within the energy sector to curb greenhouse gas emissions, or to study alternative climate strategies such as adaptation and geoengineering measures, policy-makers can rely on mathematical decision support models, in particular E3 (economy/energy/environment) models and integrated assessment models (IAMs). This paper reviews some of my recent contributions to climate policy design using different types of E3 models and IAMs.     

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin,Myanmar

Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle is important for basin scale water resources management. This study aims to investigate the potential impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrology of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar. Two scenarios from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) were used to project the future climate of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selected to project the future climate in the basin. An increase of average temperature in the range of 0.7 to 1.5 °C and 0.9 to 2.7 °C was observed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, in future periods. Similarly, average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the highest increase in 2050s. A well calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the land use and climate change impacts on future stream flows in the basin. It is observed that the impact of climate change on stream flow is higher than the land use change in the near future. The combined impacts of land use and climate change can increase the annual stream flow up to 68 % in the near future. The findings of this study would be beneficial to improve land and water management decisions and in formulating adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impacts, and harness the positive impacts of land use and climate change in the Bago River Basin.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

Integrating adaptation to climate change in regional plans and programmes: The role of strategic environmental assessment

Climate changes exert negative impacts on the global environments and the human beings. They imply more frequent extreme weather events, which are responsible of sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, droughts, and desertification. Mitigation and adaptation represent intertwined strategies for counteracting climate changes. Mitigation is associated to the lessening of the causes of climate changes and includes actions reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is a proactive concept addressing how humans can adapt and benefit from climate change. The mainstreaming and integration of adaptation to climate change into routine practice can be favored by Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of regional policies, plans and programmes. In this study, we aim at scrutinizing a set of SEA reports of regional plans and programmes adopted in Sardinia (Italy), to investigate if -and to what extent- adaptation to climate change has characterized planning and programming tools. Evidence shows that the integration of adaptation-driven issues into regional planning is still in its infancy but presents the signs of promising expansion.     

Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in —Laikipia,of Kenya

The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the forest conservation areas (ecosystem zoning) all in consultation with government (political class), community and other stakeholders. Groups are organised (environmental management committee) to address conservation, political and vulnerability issues in the pastoral dry forested ecosystem which will sustain pastoralism in the ecosystem.     

Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts

Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.     

Integrating Impacts into Adaptation Measures

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described.The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies.The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change.The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries.Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.     

Urban water resource management for sustainable environment planning using artificial intelligence techniques

In the current era, water is a significant resource for socio-economic growth and the protection of healthy environments. Properly controlled water resources are considered a vital part of development, which reduces poverty and equity. Conventional Water system Management maximizes the existing water flows available to satisfy all competing demands, including on-site water and groundwater. Therefore, Climatic change would intensify the specific challenges in water resource management by contributing to uncertainty. Sustainable water resources management is an essential process for ensuring the earth's life and the future. Nonlinear effects, stochastic dynamics, and hydraulic constraints are challenging in ecological planning for sustainable water development. In this paper, Adaptive Intelligent Dynamic Water Resource Planning (AIDWRP) has been proposed to sustain the urban areas' water environment. Here, an adaptive intelligent approach is a subset of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) technique in which environmental planning for sustainable water development has been modeled effectively. Artificial intelligence modeling improves water efficiency by transforming information into a leaner process, improving decision-making based on data-driven by combining numeric AI tools and human intellectual skills. In AIDWRP, Markov Decision Process (MDP) discusses the dynamic water resource management issue with annual use and released locational constraints that develop sensitivity-driven methods to optimize several efficient environmental planning and management policies. Consequently, there is a specific relief from the engagement of supply and demand for water resources, and substantial improvements in local economic efficiency have been simulated with numerical outcomes.     

Artificial Reefs of Southeast Asia - Do They Enhance or Degrade the Marine Environment?

Artificial reefs are seen as effective tools to enhance the marine environment and increase productivity, particularly fish biomass and abundance. Many Southeast Asian countries have implemented artificial reef programmes. When effectively managed, artificial reefs enhance habitats and biological productivity. Management includes proper planning on the use and configuration of materials, site selection, and regulatory control of fisheries harvest. Without planning and long-term management, artificial reefs fail and become nothing more than pollutants that contribute to the further degradation of the marine environment.     

Measuring the wealth of nations

The sustainability of development is closely linked to changes intotal per capita wealth. This paper presents estimates of the wealth of nations for nearly 100 countries, broken down into produced assets, natural resources and human resources. While thelatter is the dominant form of wealth in virtually all countries,in low income natural resource exporters the share of natural resources in total wealth is equal to the share of produced assets. For low income countries in general, cropland forms thevast majority of natural wealth. The analysis suggests the process of development can be viewed as one of portfolio management: sustainable development entails saving the rents fromexhaustible resources, managing renewable resources sustainably,and investing savings in both produced assets and human resources.     

Suggestions for integrating EIA and economic development in the Caribbean region

Conflicts between economic development and fragile natural resources represent a growing problem among the islands of the Caribbean. Relatively simple methods exist to incorporate environmental impact assessment (EIA) into development planning and review. These methods can save scarce financial resources for island nations, increase their control over the development process, and possibly forestall widespread environmental deterioration and its attendant public cost. Island nations have more power as negotiating partners in the development process than is generally realized. This power can be exercised if EIA is integrated into the national planning process, giving ministries a stronger bargaining position when negotiating with development interests.This paper begins with a discussion of the most prevalent environmental concerns in the region, including oil development, water supply, beach erosion and fisheries depletion, and proceeds to discuss practical solutions to improve local control over economic development and environmental resource management. A hypothetical case study is used to illustrate major obstacles to effective integration of economic development and EIA. Recommendations are included to advance the state-of-the-art of EIA using joint fact-finding, expanding participation in EIA, evaluating cumulative impacts and project alternatives, and conducting post-projecting monitoring.     

全球及区域碳模拟与源汇同化反演研究进展

近年来,全球和区域碳模拟与同化反演系统(简称“碳同化系统”)快速发展,并被广泛应用于不同时空尺度的碳通量和碳汇估算、碳排放量校核研究中,为支撑全球碳盘点提供了关键技术手段。文章回顾了国内外主要碳同化系统的发展历程和应用案例,总结了当前常见的全球和区域碳同化系统的结构和特点,包括使用的大气传输模式、同化方法、空间分辨率等内容;探讨了当前常见模型系统应用中的关键问题、不足与发展方向,以期为碳同化系统应用于我国环境管理和气候变化工作提供参考。     

Deriving indicators of sustainable development

Assessments of current and future development paths require comprehensive sets of indicators covering all essential aspects. From a holistic systems point of view, most currently proposed indicator sets are incomplete and deficient. Assessments of sustainable development require a full representation of the satisfaction states of the “basic orientors” (=fundamental interests) of constituent sector systems, and of their contribution to basic orientor satisfaction of the total system. Basic orientors are value dimensions (existence, effectiveness, freedom of action, security, adaptability, coexistence) emerging from a self-organizing system's interaction with its environment, and its fundamental properties (normal environmental state, scarce resources, variety, variability, change, other systems). Basic orientors are also reflected in human emotions, societal punishment, psychological and social needs, life styles, and values emerging in self-organization of artificial life. The relative weight assigned to basic orientors of partner systems is a question of ethics. Based on these concepts, a general scheme for finding a “complete” set of indicators of viability and sustainability is derived, and it is applied to deriving a comprehensive set of indicators of sustainable development for society and its sector systems (infrastructure, economic system, social system, individual development, government, environment and resource system). The method can be applied at different levels of complexity and regional resolution. A full set of regional indicators for sustainable development is presented, a method for compact assessment of development paths using orientor stars is described, and the approach for application at the community level is outlined.