Larval development rate predicts range expansion of an introduced crab

Introduced populations can cause ecological and economic damage and are difficult to eradicate once they have established. It is therefore important to be able to predict both where species may become established and their capacity to spread within recipient regions. Here, we use a new method to assess potential for intraregional spread of a marine crab introduced to North America, Carcinus maenas. We determined survivorship and development rates throughout a range of temperatures in the laboratory for C. maenas larvae from non-native populations on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America. The larvae exhibited narrower physiological tolerances than adults, and no lab-cultured larvae completed larval development below 10.0°C or above 22.5°C. Survivorship peaked at intermediate water temperatures of 12.5–20.0°C, and development time decreased with increasing temperatures within this range. Based upon these laboratory development rates, we used nearshore sea-surface temperature data from both coasts of North America to predict development times required for larvae at different months and sites. Taken together, survivorship and development data indicate that C. maenas has the capacity to continue its northward spread and establish populations at numerous additional sites in North America. Moreover, decadal temperature data at two Alaskan sites predicted little variability in development duration across years, suggesting that development duration predictions are robust to interannual water temperature differences.     

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989-2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.     

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long‐term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species’ potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18‐fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected.     

Climate determines upper, but not lower, altitudinal range limits of Pacific Northwest conifers

Does climate determine species' ranges? Rapid rates of anthropogenic warming make this classic ecological question especially relevant. We ask whether climate controls range limits by quantifying relationships between climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) and tree growth across the altitudinal ranges of six Pacific Northwestern conifers on Mt. Rainier, Washington, USA. Results for three species (Abies amabilis, Callitropsis nootkatensis, Tsuga mertensiana) whose upper limits occur at treeline (> 1600 m) imply climatic controls on upper range limits, with low growth in cold and high snowpack years. Annual growth was synchronized among individuals at upper limits for these high-elevation species, further suggesting that stand-level effects such as climate constrain growth more strongly than local processes. By contrast, at lower limits climatic effects on growth were weak for these high-elevation species. Growth-climate relationships for three low-elevation species (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Thuja plicata, Tsuga heterophylla) were not consistent with expectations of climatic controls on upper limits, which are located within closed-canopy forest (< 1200 m). Annual growth of these species was poorly synchronized among individuals. Our results suggest that climate controls altitudinal range limits at treeline, while local drivers (perhaps biotic interactions) influence growth in closed-canopy forests. Climate-change-induced range shifts in closed-canopy forests will therefore be difficult to predict accurately.     

Effects of density-dependent dispersal behaviours on the speed and spatial patterns of range expansion in predator-prey metapopulations

Dispersal can strongly affect the spatiotemporal dynamics of a species (its spread, spatial distribution and persistence). We investigated how two dispersal behaviours, namely prey evasion (PE) and predator pursuit (PP), affect the dynamics of a predator-prey system. PE portrays the tendency of prey avoiding predators by dispersing into adjacent patches with fewer predators, while PP describes the tendency of predators to pursue the prey by moving into patches with more prey. Based on the Beddington predation model, a spatially explicit metapopulation model was built to incorporate PE and PP. Numerical simulations were run to investigate the effects of PE and PP on the rate of spread, spatial synchrony and the persistence of populations. Results show that both PE and PP can alter spatial synchrony although PP has a weaker desynchronising effect than PE. The predator-prey system without PE and PP expanded in circular waves. The effect of PE can push the prey to distribute in a circular ring front, whereas the effect of PP can change the circular waves to anisotropic expansion. Furthermore, weak PE and PP can accelerate the spread of prey while strong and disproportionate intensities slow down the range expansion. The effects of PE and PP further enhance the population size, break down the spatial synchrony and promote the persistence of populations.     

Age and sex influence marmot antipredator behavior during periods of heightened risk

Animals adjust their antipredator behavior according to environmental variation in risk, and to account for their ability to respond to threats. Intrinsic factors that influence an animal’s ability to respond to predators (e.g., age, body condition) should explain variation in antipredator behavior. For example, a juvenile might allocate more time to vigilance than an adult because mortality as a result of predation is often high for this age class; however, the relationship between age/vulnerability and antipredator behavior is not always clear or as predicted. We explored the influence of intrinsic factors on yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris) antipredator behavior using data pooled from 4 years of experiments. We hypothesized that inherently vulnerable animals (e.g., young, males, and individuals in poor condition) would exhibit more antipredator behavior prior to and immediately following conspecific alarm calls. As expected, males and yearlings suppressed foraging more than females and adults following alarm call playbacks. In contrast to predictions, animals in better condition respond more than animals in below average condition. Interestingly, these intrinsic properties did not influence baseline time budgets; animals of all ages, sexes, and condition levels devoted comparable amounts of time to foraging prior to alarm calls. Our results support the hypothesis that inherent differences in vulnerability influence antipredator behavior; furthermore, it appears that a crucial, but poorly acknowledged, interaction exists between risk and state-dependence. Elevated risk may be required to reveal the workings of state-dependent behavior, and studies of antipredator behavior in a single context may draw incomplete conclusions about age- or sex-specific strategies.     

外源和内源呼吸模式下好氧活性污泥的微生物群落演替及生物活性特征

通过模拟好氧活性污泥实验,采用PCR-DGGE技术并监测不同时期的CODCr、脱氢酶和总蛋白质的质量浓度,研究在外源和内源呼吸模式下,微生物群落结构及相关生物活性的变化。结果表明：未添加碳源处理中 CODCr的质量浓度稳定在100 mg·L-1左右;脱氢酶的质量浓度从1μg·mL-1降低到接近0μg·mL-1;总蛋白的质量浓度从0.05 mg·mL-1上升至0.07 mg·mL-1后下降至0.01 mg·mL-1左右;同时,微生物群落结构变化不大。外加葡萄糖处理中CODCr的质量浓度从1000 mg·L-1下降并稳定在100 mg·L-1左右;脱氢酶的质量浓度从2μg·mL-1上升到5μg·mL-1;总蛋白的质量浓度均从0.05 mg·mL-1上升至0.07 mg·mL-1后下降至0.005 mg·mL-1左右;同时,微生物群落多样性呈现收敛趋势。内源和外源呼吸模式下的活性污泥中,变形菌门（ Proteobacteria ）都是绝对优势种群,其次是拟杆菌门（ Bacteroidetes ）。内源呼吸末期δ-变形菌门（Deltaproteobacteria）消失,外源呼吸末期硝化螺菌门（Nitrospirae）消失。     

Body temperature independence of solar radiation in free-ranging loggerhead turtles,Caretta caretta,during internesting periods

Body temperatures, ambient water temperatures, light intensities and vertical positions (depth) of eight loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, were monitored by small recorders during internesting periods from 1991 through 1993 off Wakayama Prefecture, Japan. Body temperatures of eight loggerhead turtles were higher than ambient water temperatures through-out their internesting periods. Light intensities were compared with body temperatures and no evidence was obtained to suggest that the raised body temperatures were caused by the direct influence of solar radiation. Body temperatures were kept higher than water temperatures in cloudy weather or even at night. Mean thermal differences between body and water temperatures were significantly different among individuals, and larger turtles had a greater mean thermal difference. Elevations in body temperatures of adult loggerhead turtles can reasonably be assumed to result from the accumulation of metabolically produced heat. Surfacing times (spent at depths shallower than 2 m) of seven turtles were only 10.3 to 38.9% of their internesting periods, with the exception of one turtle who spent 66.3% of her time at the surface. Loggerhead turtles did not seem to bask positively at the sea surface to absorb radiative heat.     

Environment-specific elasticity and sensitivity analysis of the stochastic growth rate

For matrix population models, analyses of how sensitive the population growth rate is to changes in vital rates (i.e. perturbations) are important for studies of life history evolution as well as for management and conservation of threatened species. There are two types of sensitivity analyses corresponding to absolute (sensitivity) or relative (elasticity) changes in the vital rates and both types can be applied to both deterministic and stochastic matrix population models. To date, most empirical studies of elasticity and sensitivity of the stochastic growth rate have examined the response to perturbations in the vital rates in a complete set of possible environments. However, it is often of interest to examine the response to perturbations occurring in only a subset of the possible environments. This has been done for periodic time-varying models elsewhere, but here we describe a recently published method for calculating the environment-specific sensitivity and elasticity of the stochastic growth rate and apply this method to data. These environment-specific perturbation analyses provide a logical way of dividing the sensitivity and elasticity among the environments. They give important insight into the selection regime in different environments and can provide valuable information for making management decisions and management evaluations in stochastic environments.     

Taxing overexploited open-access fisheries: the role of demand elasticity

The paper aims at identifying the effects exerted by a tax levy on an overexploited and previously unregulated fishery. The analysis is carried out by means of a dynamic model that includes fish stock and harvesting effort as state variables. Attention is focused on the role played by demand elasticity which is shown to affect both transients and equilibria.According to the analysis, a levy induces a contraction in effort, which is sharper in the short term. As a consequence, the fish population recovers and ultimately settles at a higher equilibrium level. Therefore, a larger amount of fish is caught in the long run and sold at a lower price than in the unregulated setting. The more inelastic the demand, the smaller both the equilibrium price for fish and the tax imposed.     

Rethinking the native range concept

A species is not native outside its native range, but native range is not precisely defined. The invasion literature contains wide discussion of the core concepts such as naturalization, invasiveness, and ecological impact, but the concept of native range has received so little attention that a formal definition does not exist. I considered, among other impediments to a formal definition of native range, the sometimes arbitrariness of the spatial and temporal limits assigned to native range. Broad questions that remain include whether invasion theory can be used to define the native range for species without non-native ranges.     

Testing the limits of social resilience in ant colonies

Social resilience is the ability of Leptothorax ant colonies to re-assemble after dissociation, as caused, for example, by an emigration to a new nest site. Through social resilience individual workers re-adopt their spatial positions relative to one another and resume their tasks without any time being wasted in worker respecialisation. Social resilience can explain how an efficient division of labour can be maintained throughout the trials and tribulations of colony ontogeny including the, often substantial, period after the queen dies when the ability to conserve worker social relationships may be essential for efficiency to be maintained. The mechanism underlying social resilience is, therefore, expected to be robust even in the absence of many of the colony’s components, such as the queen, the brood and even a large proportion of the workers. Such losses are likely, given the ecology of this genus. Using sociotomy experiments, we found that social resilience can occur in the absence of the queen. Furthermore, the spatial component of social resilience can occur even when the queen, the brood, as well as a large proportion of the workers, are all absent simultaneously and hence many of the tasks are missing. We conclude, therefore, that social resilience is indeed robust. This does not, however, preclude worker flexibility in response to changes in task supply and demand. We propose a possible sorting mechanism based on worker mobility levels which might explain the robustness underlying this phenomenon. Received: 25 October 1999 / Accepted: 1 April 2000     

On the vulnerability of woody riparian vegetation during flood events

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Wood is recognized as a key element of river ecosystem for a large number of positive feedbacks with biotic and abiotic components, both when it is present as large...     

鹿角杜鹃展叶期叶片发育与虫食动态

叶片虫食主要发生在展叶期间,虽然展叶期只是一个短暂的阶段,却可能是了解植食性昆虫和植物之间相互关系的关键.为了解展叶期叶片属性的变化及其与虫食的关系,研究通过野外观察和室内分析,测定福建梅花山亚热带常绿阔叶林中鹿角杜鹃(Rhododendron latoucheae)幼树展叶期间叶片属性(叶片氮、可溶性糖、叶绿素含量、含水量、单宁含量、硬度)和叶片虫食率的日变化动态,并分析它们之间的相互关系.结果表明,(1)叶片在爆芽27 d后完成展叶,平均展叶率14.06%,(2)可溶性糖、叶绿素和叶片硬度随叶片的展开上升缓慢,在展叶完成几天内后迅速上升;N含量、含水量和单宁含量在展叶期间含量较高,叶片展开后迅速下降.(3)虫食率随着叶片的发育逐渐上升,在第9天达到峰值(0.55%),并在接近展叶完成时迅速下降.(4)叶片虫食率同N含量、含水量、单宁含量正相关,而与叶绿素含量、可溶性糖含量、和叶片硬度负相关.     

A note on the welfare-economic consequences of extended fishing limits

A standard two countries-two commodities model is developed to consider the gains in efficiency resulting from transferring common property fish stocks to the jurisdiction of coastal states attempting to reach allocative efficiency. As a result of this transfer, the long-term catch from seriously overexploited fish stocks will be greater than otherwise, causing the price of fish to fall. This will transfer some, and possibly all, of the gains from more efficient fishing to fish consumers in the rest of the world. The note concludes with some remarks on the plausibility of the assumption that governments will pursue allocative efficiency.     

Relative intensity of predation on the French grunt, Haemulon flavolineatum, during diurnal, dusk, and nocturnal periods on a coral reef

Established hypotheses state that the rate of predation on coral reef fish should be highest during crepuscular periods (dawn and dusk) intermediate diurnally, and lowest nocturnally. We examined the relative risk of predation on juvenile French grunts (Haemulon flavolineatum Desmarest) during diurnal, dusk, and nocturnal periods on the fore- and back-reef at Teague Bay, U.S. Virgin Islands in July and August 1996. Tethering-devices recorded the exact amount of time between attaching a prey fish to its tether and subsequent predation on the prey fish. As tethering of prey usually inflates the actual rate of predation, times from our tethering devices were used to establish only the relative predation risk among treatments. During 3-h diurnal and nocturnal tethering experiments, relative predation was significantly higher during the nocturnal period, and differences between side of reef were not significant. In 30-min tethering experiments, which included all three time periods, the relative predation risk was significantly higher during dusk and nocturnal periods than during the diurnal period. Relative predation was not significantly different between the dusk and nocturnal periods, or between side of reef during any time period. The unexpected finding that the diurnal period had the lowest relative risk of predation indicates that the timing of predation events on reefs, as well as the adaptive reasons for nocturnal larval settlement, may need to be re-examined. Received: 11 February 1997 / Accepted: 21 October 1998     

Carbon trading across sources and periods constrained by the Marrakesh Accords

We examine the potential effects on permit prices and abatement costs of four compliance rules governing emissions trade across sources and periods in the Kyoto Protocol: The banking rule that allows excess permits to be used later; the restoration rate rule that penalizes borrowing; the commitment period reserve rule that limits sales; and finally, the suspension rule that restricts borrowing and sales. Our framework is a two-period model where parties may be out of compliance in the Kyoto period, but are assumed to comply at a later time. Under varying assumptions about market power and US participation, we find that the rules may have pronounced effects on individual costs, but overall efficiency is not severely affected.     

Lethal limits and the zoogeography of the faunal assemblages of Coastal Carolina waters

The offshore waters of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, USA, is an area of dynamic encounter between the northerly flowing, warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the southerly flowing, colder water of the Virginia coastal current. The faunal assemblages north of the Cape and those associated with a reeflike formation southe of the Cape in the Gulf Stream are distinct, each having predominantly cold- or warm-water affinities. To assess the zoogeographical significance of temperature, high and low thermal limits of both adult and larvae of species from these 2 regions were determined. Lethal salinity limits of the first stage zoeae of a few Crustacea were determined. In general, southern affinity species survived higher temperatures than northerly displanced species. In some cases, species with overlapping distributional limits had different thermal tolerances, which could be correlated with differential microhabitat selection. Many of the southern affinity species could not survive low temperatures which were characteristic of either the water mass northe of Cape Hatteras (4 °C) or the waters between the Gulf Stream and the shore (10 °C). A few species were able to seasonally acclimate to temperature extremes. Zoeae of reef species are the least resistant to both low temperature and low salinity.Supported by Grant NSF GB 7435 from the National Science Foundation. The authors thank Duke University Marine Laboratory and the Cooperative Program of Biological Oceanography for the use of the R. V. Eastward. The Cooperative Program is supported through the National Science Foundation Grant GB-8189.     

Effect of audits on the extent of compliance with wastewater discharge limits

This study explores the effect of environmental self-audits (“audits”), which represent an important type of environmental management system practice, on the extent of facilities’ compliance with wastewater discharge limits. Theoretically, audits may (1) improve compliance by enhancing the effectiveness of treatment technologies and pollution prevention methods, (2) undermine compliance by distracting facilities’ personnel with audit-related administrative burdens, or (3) not influence compliance because these effects neutralize each other. By examining the extent of compliance, our study’s results reflect both improvement toward and beyond compliance. By assessing compliance with multiple pollutants separately, our study examines whether audits influence the control of different pollutants uniformly. Lastly, we employ a dynamic panel estimator, which allows us to explore whether facilities adjust their discharges dynamically, while controlling for any inertia in facilities’ pollution control systems. Our study empirically examines the U.S. chemical manufacturing sector between 1999 and 2001 using survey and publicly available EPA data.