全球及中国海海平面变化研究进展

回顾了当前海平面变化研究的成果,总结了全球1993～2003年间海平面及比容海平面变化趋势分别在2.8 mm/a、1.2 mm/a左右,在北半球具有显著的季节变化,海水比容变化对海平面变化有决定性的影响.1950～2003年间全球比容海平面的上升速率为0.3 mm/a.东中国海近10 a的海平面和比容海平面的趋势变化分别为4.93 mm/a、3.18 mm/a,其中盐比容对总比容的贡献远远大于全球尺度上盐比容的贡献,在季节尺度上,比容效应是海平面面变化的主导因素,在年际尺度上,具有准2 a的周期,主要受黑潮和长江径流的影响.南海的海平面和比容海平面的上升速率分别为4.7 mm/a、 4.2 mm/a,比容海平面的位相比T/P海平面大约提前2个月,年际变化和ENSO高度相关.并提出气候变化的模拟以及区域性海平面的研究是未来海平面研究发展的主要方向.     

Energy policy, planning and the environment in developing countries

MICROCOSM is a modified system dynamics model of the energy sector of a developing country, intended for energy analysis work of short duration in small, data-poor economies. It is also quite useful for quick survey use on a regional or national basis in more complex economies and assists in early identification of sectoral bottlenecks in major energy planning projects. Its other major application is in the teaching and training of energy planners and policy makers. MICROCOSM is an indicative planning tool for professionals in the energy-planning field. It does not present an optimal solution to balancing energy supply and demand, but is intended for circumstances where there are insufficient data to reach such conclusions. The purpose of this article is to explain the way in which the model works, as well as the equations upon which it is based. It concentrates on the conceptual basis and methodology, in order to assist the reader in understanding the model.     

Biofuels production in developing countries: assessing tradeoffs in welfare and food security

In light of the recent rise in global food prices, much of the literature on crop-based biofuel production focuses on the potential impacts on food security. Studies have identified linkages between the usage of feedstocks in biofuel production and international food price increases. In addition, these studies indicate that food prices are expected to continue to rise over the next decade in response to biofuel consumption targets adopted in the U.S. and E.U. Despite these indications, some countries for whom food security and poverty reduction are still an issue have initiated crop-based biofuel development and set forth national blending targets for energy use within the transportation sector. As a result, a broader examination of the tradeoffs concerning welfare and food security related to biofuel development merit consideration. Opportunities to generate income and expand agricultural production technology through biofuel development may provide welfare gains that can improve purchasing power and decrease vulnerability to price shocks for food and energy. In addition, biofuel production schemes that promote alternative energy sources for household uses can improve productivity and health, especially for women and children. To assist with the sector development that maximizes welfare gains, we suggest a number of key indicators that might be useful in constructing a typology that can be applied across countries to characterize their energy needs and better target the types of bioenergy uses that might be best suited for them. In addition, biofuel production models are reviewed and best-practices identified that can expand welfare gains for smallholders and the poor. Through these examples, we demonstrate a basis upon which policymakers might approach the prioritization of their national strategies towards developing renewable energy sources, such that they can have the maximum impact upon important goals of human welfare and development.     

Addressing the dynamics of agri-food systems: an emerging agenda for social science research

The ‘modernist’ project that has come to dominate food and agricultural policy has failed to provide sustainable outcomes for many poor people in developing countries. Conventional agricultural science is not able to explain let alone address these concerns because it is based on a static equilibrium-centred view that provides little insight into the dynamic character of agri-food systems. This paper analyses how prevailing narratives of technological change and economic growth have come to dominate key food and agriculture policy debates. It seeks to counter these orthodox notions by emphasising that agri-food systems are embedded in complex ecological, economic and social processes, and showing how their interactions are dynamic and vulnerable to short-term shocks and long-term stresses like climate change. The paper makes the case for a deeper understanding of diverse ‘rural worlds’ and their potential pathways to sustainability through agriculture. Moreover, it argues for a normative focus on poverty reduction and concern for the distributional consequences of dynamic changes in agri-food systems, rather than aggregates and averages. Finally, it sets out an interdisciplinary research agenda on agri-food systems that focuses on dynamic system interactions in complex, risk-prone environments and explores how pathways can become more resilient and robust in an era of growing risk and uncertainty.     

Climate change and the growth of the livestock sector in developing countries

Livestock production systems will inevitably be affected as a result of changes in climate and climate variability, with impacts on peoples’ livelihoods. At the same time, livestock food chains are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture and livestock in particular will need to play a greater role than they have hitherto in reducing emissions in the future. Adaptation and mitigation may require significant changes in production technology and farming systems, which could affect productivity. Given what is currently known about the likely impacts on livestock systems, however, the costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change in the aggregate may not represent an enormous constraint to the growth of the global livestock sector, in its bid to meet increasing demand for livestock products. Different livestock systems have different capacities to adapt or to take on board the policy and regulatory changes that may be required in the future. Vulnerability of households dependent on livestock, particularly in the drier areas of developing countries, is likely to increase substantially, with concomitant impacts on poverty and inequity. The capacity of these systems to adapt and to yield up their carbon sequestration potential deserves considerable further study. Comprehensive frameworks need to be developed to assess impacts and trade-offs, in order to identify and target adaptation and mitigation options that are appropriate for specific contexts, and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to poverty alleviation and economic development.     

亚洲发展中国家城市管理现状分析和思考

城市环境管理城市是特定意义的生态系统,人类与环境要在这一特定空间地域有机结合和对立统一。现代城市的发展,不仅要有效解决城市化过程所带来的种种矛盾,还要适应新技术革命和信息社会的多种挑战。城市环境管理是一项复杂而系统的社会工程,是国家市政管理中一个既广且大的课题,也是一个城市文明程度的重要标志,     

Towards an inter-disciplinary research agenda on climate change, water and security in Southern Europe and neighboring countries

The Mediterranean and neighboring countries are already experiencing a broad range of natural and man-made threats to water security. According to climate projections, the region is at risk due to its pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. Such changes are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on key strategic sectors of regional economies. Related developments have an increased capacity to exacerbate tensions, and even intra- and inter-state conflict among social, political, ecological and economic actors. Thus, effective adaptation and prevention policy measures call for multi-disciplinary analysis and action.This review paper presents the current state-of-the-art on research related to climate change impacts upon water resources and security from an ecological, economic and social angle. It provides perspectives for current and upcoming research needs and describes the challenges and potential of integrating and clustering multi-disciplinary research interests in complex and interwoven human-environment systems and its contribution to the upcoming 5th assessment report of the IPCC.     

Rural energy transitions in developing countries: a case of the Uttam Urja initiative in India

In most developing countries, at the household level, traditional burning of biomass or use of inefficient technologies for domestic applications like lighting is common, triggering concerns related to fuel or technology switching. The paper focuses on opportunities to promote cleaner energy options through development of value chains delivering improved energy efficiency and access in developing countries. We discuss the example of Uttam Urja, a field project involving the dissemination of photovoltaic lighting technologies in rural areas of India. We focus on the challenges of introducing radical innovations into the residential energy sector in developing countries. For the purpose of this paper the Uttam Urja project is conceptualized as an ‘experiment’ and analysed using the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) framework. The paper emphasizes that to effect socio-technical transitions to clean energy options on the ground, it is desirable to focus on technology customization and innovative financing to cater to the needs and concerns of end users.     

长江口及邻近水域富营养化现状及变化趋势的评价与分析

根据2000～2002年6个航次的调查资料,分析研究了长江口及邻近水域富营养化现状及其变化趋势。研究结果表明,长江口及邻近水域营养盐含量十分丰富,平均56％水域无机氮含量已超过海水水质四类标准,磷酸盐也有40％以上已达到或超过海水水质四类标准。基于20个监测点有机污染指数（E值）和富营养化指数（A值）的计算结果,发现长江口及邻近水域从西向东、从北向南污染程度逐步降低;同时根据多年平均的A值划分,大约60％水域已达到重污染水平,受轻度和中度污染的水域均为20％左右。     

夏季海水养殖区大型网箱内外沉降颗粒物通量

通过模拟实验,研究了爱伦湾抗风浪网箱沉降颗粒物(SPM)的通量,估算了12h内SPM中无机氮(IN)、(无机磷)IP的释放速度.结果表明,由于投饵不当,残饵和粪便大量产生,严重影响水域生源要素的生物地球化学行为.SPM通量、POC、TN、TP的通量均为网箱内大于网箱外.SPM的C/N为21.6～69.2,说明在浅海区沉降过程中,N的分解较快,爱伦湾是低生产力水域.N/P为0.54～0.99,颗粒物中氮缺乏.短期内,SPM都释放IN、IP. SPM对NH4+-N有一定的吸附特性,SPM中POC 71%～76%被释放,TP 88%～97%被释放,TN的吸附率为44%～94%.     

从第31届国际地质大会命题看：地球科学研究的热点和趋势

本文论述了第 31届国际地质大会学科和专题命题情况 ,统计了大会收到的论文和摘要数并将各命题重新排序。将位于前 12位的学科和前 5位的专题命题进一步列出重点讨论题目和摘要数。通过与第 30届国际地质大会命题的比较 ,试图大致了解国际地球科学研究的热点和趋势 ;通过上述分析和了解 ,就地球科学与可持续发展阐述了笔者的认识 ,提出了地球科学基础性研究和应用基础研究的重点领域     

大青山中高山地带阴坡水土保持效益的研究

本文对大青山高土地带阴坡三种不同水土保持林与农地，撩荒地比较，将枯落物持水性、土壤含水量及土壤性质、分散度、导水率进行了分析，阐明了大青山中高山地带阴坡三种不同林分有极强的哟水性、可拦蓄大量的径流；林地土壤含水量高、结构良好、渗透降水能力强，土本难以破坏。可有交地防治山地水土流失的发生。     

Risky business: Engaging the public on sea level rise and inundation

To examine whether U.S. public opinion may become as sharply polarized on adaptation responses as it has been on mitigation policies, we surveyed a sample of urban coastal residents in Maryland (n = 378). We then tested the impact of a community deliberative event (n = 40) with small-group sea level rise discussions as a depolarization strategy. Cultural worldviews which contribute to politically polarized beliefs about climate were predictive of perceptions of sea level rise risk. Living close to flooding hazards also significantly predicted respondents’ perceptions of household or neighborhood risks, but not of risks to the entire county. The event significantly increased topic knowledge among all participants and, among those with a worldview predisposing them to lower risk perceptions, significantly increased problem identification and concern about impacts. These results suggest small-group deliberation focused on local problem-solving may be an effective tool for reducing the polarizing effects of cultural worldviews on decision-making.     

辽东湾海冰晶体结构及其内部叶绿素的初步研究

本文介绍了１９９６年冬季首次辽东湾生态环境调查中的海洋背景条件。扼要地阐述了辽东湾海冰一般概况，分析辽东湾冰样晶体结构、存储条件及其与冰内和冰下海水叶绿素之间的关系。辽东湾冰内叶绿素符合其它结冰海区的一般规律。根据辽东湾冰层底部实测盐度变化规律阐明海冰对冰下海水营养盐的贡献。最后对深入开展结冰海区生态环境调查工作的技术、侧重点和意义做了讨论。     

福州近海牡蛎污染状况调查与评价

2002年3月至2003年7月对福州近海养殖牡蛎中的重金属(Hg,Pb,As,Cd)、石油烃、DDT、BHC、多氯联苯和微生物(粪大肠菌群、沙门氏菌、副溶血性弧菌、单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌)指标进行检测。结果表明:福州海区内的牡蛎中的Hg、DDT、BHC、多氯联苯、沙门氏菌和单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌符合国家无公害水产品安全要求;部分海区牡蛎体内Pb、石油烃的含量超标;牡蛎中的As、Cd、粪大肠菌群、副溶血性弧菌超标严重。     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

美国国家公园矿业管理对我国生态保护红线区矿业活动管控的启示

随着我国生态保护红线逐步落地,生态保护红线与矿产资源开发活动间的冲突日益凸显。美国经过40多年的探索,已经建立起较为完善的国家公园矿业退出与管控体系,但同时也面临着新的挑战。本文系统梳理了美国国家公园内矿业管理的发展历程、制度设计,特别是通过提高已有矿业活动的环境管理成本,充分利用经济规律,推动矿业权有序退出的经验,为我国现阶段生态保护红线区矿业退出及活动管控提供有益参考。建议明确主责部门,建立部门协同配合机制;摸清矿业活动底数,精准识别管控对象;制定多元退出机制;基于生态环境目标,加强矿业活动管理;建立灵活的保证金和风险金制度。