A multi-criteria geographic information systems approach for the measurement of vulnerability to climate change

A flexible procedure for the development of a multi-criteria composite index to measure relative vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is presented. The composite index is developed using the Weighted Ordered Weighted Average (WOWA) aggregation technique which enables the selection of different levels of trade-off, which controls the degree to which indicators are able to average out others. We explore this approach in an illustrative case study of the United States (US), using future projections of widely available indicators quantifying flood vulnerability under two scenarios of climate change. The results are mapped for two future time intervals for each climate scenario, highlighting areas that may exhibit higher future vulnerability to flooding events. Based on a Monte Carlo robustness analysis, we find that the WOWA aggregation technique can provide a more flexible and potentially robust option for the construction of vulnerability indices than traditionally used approaches such as Weighted Linear Combinations (WLC). This information was used to develop a proof-of-concept vulnerability assessment to climate change impacts for the US Army Corps of Engineers. Lessons learned in this study informed the climate change screening analysis currently under way.     

气候变化对近岸海域缺氧的影响机制研究进展

随着全球变暖的不断加剧,近岸海域缺氧对气候变化的响应已成为近年来国内外研究的热点问题。本文综述了气候变化对近岸海域缺氧的影响机制研究进展,气候变化将通过径流量及营养盐输入、风应力和水体温度的变化等方面影响缺氧的形成和发展。指出今后应结合多种技术手段,开展气候改变径流量和风对缺氧影响的研究,并就缺氧对生物代谢变化的响应,以及缺氧对气候变化的滞后效应及相关过程的识别等方面进行深入研究。     

Accommodation of climate change in coastal areas of cameroon: selection of household-level protection options

Coastal areas are threatened under climate change because of factors related to vulnerability of society and sensitivity of the environment. Protection and adaptation may mitigate the adverse consequences. This research reviews and assesses the options of protection by homeowners in the coastal zone in the southwest region of Cameroon. The coastal zone of Cameroon is studied because of the observed deleterious effect of recent extreme climatic events. From a research sample of 400 households, the house types and protection strategies - which are of two main types: reactive measures and preventive measures taken to offset adverse effects on property, are studied. A multinomial logit function reveals that income, education, age and gender are significant factors determining household’s probability on the selection of protection measures. The study concludes that there are strong implications for adaptation to future climate change, and the ability of homeowners to extensively respond will have to be reinforced not only by communal and public works projects but also through an active government policy to promote climate change adaptation.     

Envisioning robust climate change adaptation futures for coastal regions: a comparative evaluation of cases in three continents

The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning in (i) The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment, (ii) The Mississippi Estuary-New Orleans region and (iii) The Dutch Rhine-Meuse Estuary. The objective of the paper is twofold: to develop a better understanding of such processes and to further develop the Backcasting-Adaptive Management (BCAM) methodology. A framework for case evaluation is developed using six dimensions: (i) inputs and resources, (ii) future vision, (iii) stakeholder engagement, (iv) methodological aspects, (v) pathway development and (vi) impact. Major conclusions based on a cross-case comparison and testing propositions are (i) participatory vision development is a strong tool for climate change adaptation planning in different governance contexts and shows considerable diversity in its application in these contexts; (ii) a single, shared future vision is not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development and endorsement; (iii) broad stakeholder engagement enriches strategy development, but the involvement of marginal groups requires additional efforts and capacity building; (iv) multiple pathways and robust elements are useful but require novel expertise; and (v) more institutional embeddedness and support for participatory processes lead to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.     

Fostering coastal resilience to climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh,Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay: a cross-country comparison

This paper describes a comparative study of four different cases on vulnerability, hazards and adaptive capacity to climate threats in coastal areas and communities in four developing countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay. Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges and flooding due to their (i) exposure, (ii) concentration of settlements, many of which occupied by less advantaged groups and (iii) the concentration of assets and services seen in these areas. The objective of the paper is twofold: (i) to evaluate current evidence of coastal vulnerability and adaptive capacity and (ii) to compare adaptation strategies being implemented in a sample of developing countries, focusing on successful ones. The followed approach for the case evaluation is based on (i) documenting observed threats and damages, (ii) using indicators of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity status and (iii) selecting examples of successful responses. Major conclusions based on cross-case comparison are (a) the studied countries show different vulnerability, adaptive capacity and implementation of responses, (b) innovative community-based (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and (c) early warning systems are key approaches and tools to foster climate resilience. A recommendation to foster the resilience of coastal communities and services is that efforts in innovative adaptation strategies to sea-level rise should be intensified and integrated with climate risk management within the national adaption plans (NAPAs) in order to reduce the impacts of hazards.     

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step framework for urban forest vulnerability assessment and adaptation that scales from regional assessment to local on-the-ground action. We piloted this framework in the Chicago region in 10 locations representing an urban-exurban gradient across a range of socioeconomic capacities. The majority of trees across a seven-county region had low to moderate vulnerability, but many of the least vulnerable species were nonnative invasive species. Urban forests in the 10 pilot locations ranged in vulnerability largely due to differences in economic and organizational adaptive capacity. Adaptation actions selected in these locations tended to focus on increased biodiversity and restoration of natural disturbance regimes. However, adaptation actions in more developed sites also included incorporating new species or cultivars. Lessons learned from the pilot area can be used to inform future efforts in other urban areas.     

Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change

This paper presents a tailor-made scenario approach for climate change adaptation planning, which emphasises involvement of stakeholders in the development of socioeconomic scenarios and relates to the planning situation and interest of the planning entity. The method was developed and tested in case studies in three different sectors in Sweden (the health sector, the tourism sector and water resource management). The result of the case studies is that the tailor-made scenario approach facilitated the engagement of the local planning body in climate change adaptation and helped them to analyse consequences and possible solutions in a structured way. However, the scenarios that emerged mainly focused on socioeconomic drivers on which the planning body had a large impact or drivers that can be influenced through cooperation with other actors at the local or regional level. While this result underlines the need for local stakeholder involvement in scenario processes, it also indicates a local bias that could be remedied by a stronger representation of national and global perspectives in the scenario development process. Finally, we discuss how a “bottom-up” approach could be combined with a “consistency” approach, which points towards a possible way forward to a hybrid methodology that is compatible with the scenario framework currently being developed in connection to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC.     

Learning settings to face climate change

Meeting the manifold challenges connected to climate change makes high demands on individual competencies. To prepare actors for those challenges learning settings are needed in higher education that are suitable for that goal. A theoretical framework for relevant key competencies can be found in the discourse of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD). In this paper we introduce and discuss two learning settings that employ adapted sustainability science approaches: the syndrome approach and scenario analysis. Both approaches are discussed with reference to their didactic goals to foster the acquisition of the corresponding competencies. The usefulness of these two approaches in creating appropriate learning settings is demonstrated in empirical studies.     

Policy misfits,climate change and cross-scale vulnerability in coastal Africa: how development projects undermine resilience

Coastal social ecological systems in eastern Africa are subject to a range of environmental, social and economic changes. They are already vulnerable to these multiple stressors, and the impacts of climate change are likely to further exacerbate their vulnerabilities. Some of these impacts may be observed and experienced already. The analysis presented in this paper is based on mixed methods empirical research exploring local perceptions of recent changes at four sites in coastal Tanzania and Mozambique. People recognise and rank a number of climate and non-climate stressors which have contributed towards more risky and less diverse livelihoods. Importantly, regional and international policy initiatives – in the form of river basin management in Mozambique and South Africa, and development of a Marine Protected Area in Tanzania – are perceived to further erode resilience and exacerbate vulnerabilities. We suggest this is a form of policy misfit, where policies developed to address a specific issue do not take account of cross-scale dynamics of change, the interactions between multiple stressors, nor longer term climate change. This policy misfit may be remedied by a move towards adaptive forms of governance, and necessitates an explicit focus on building the adaptive capacity of the poor and most vulnerable in society.     

Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

Diagnosing institutional barriers and opportunities for adaptation to climate change

Institutions are one of the decisive factors which enable, constrain and shape adaptation to the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme events. However, current understanding of institutions in adaptation situations is fragmented across the scientific community, evidence diverges, and cumulative learning beyond single studies is limited. This study adopts a diagnostic approach to elaborate a nuanced understanding of institutional barriers and opportunities in climate adaptation by means of a model-centred meta-analysis of 52 case studies of public climate adaptation in Europe. The first result is a novel taxonomy of institutional attributes in adaptation situations. It conceptually organises and decomposes the many details of institutions that empirical research has shown to shape climate adaptation. In the second step, the paper identifies archetypical patterns of institutional traps and trade-offs which hamper adaptation. Thirdly, corresponding opportunities are identified that enable actors to alleviate, prevent or overcome specific institutional traps or trade-offs. These results cast doubt on the validity of general institutional design principles for successful adaptation. In contrast to generic principles, the identified opportunities provide leverage to match institutions to specific governance problems that are encountered in specific contexts. Taken together, the results may contribute to more coherence and integration of adaptation research that we need if we are to foster learning about the role of institutions in adaptation situations in a cumulative fashion.     

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.     

Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: Turning on the heat

The Cameroonian agricultural sector, a critical part of the local ecosystem, is potentially vulnerable to climate change raising concerns about food security in the country’s future. Adaptations policies may be able to mitigate some of this vulnerability. This article investigates and addresses the issue of selected adaptation options within the context of Cameroonian food production. A methodology is applied where transient diagnostics of two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the British HadCM3, are coupled to a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields for selected key crops (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum, and soybean) in eight agricultural regions of Cameroon. Our results show that for the future, substantial yield increases are estimated for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, while little or no change or even decreases for maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region investigated. Taking the “no regrets” principle into consideration, we explore the advantages of specific adaptation strategies specifically for three crops viz. maize, sorghum and bambara groundnut, under GISS A2 and B2 marker scenarios only. Changing sowing dates may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects because of the narrow rainfall band that strictly determines the timing of farm operations in Cameroon. In contrast, the possibility of developing later maturing new cultivars proved to be extremely effective in offsetting adverse impacts, giving the highest increases in productivity under different scenario projections without management changes. For example, under climate change scenario GISS A2 2080, a 14.6% reduction in maize yield was converted to a 32.1% increase; a 39.9% decrease in sorghum yield was converted to a 17.6% increase, and for bambara groundnut (an under-researched and underutilised African legume), yields were almost trebled (37.1% increase above that for sowing date alone (12.9%)) due to increase length of growing period and the positive effects of higher CO₂ concentrations. These results may better inform wider studies and development strategies on sustainable agriculture in the area by providing an indication as to the potential direction in shifts in production capabilities. Our approach highlights the benefit of using models as tools to investigate potential climate change impacts, where results can supplement existing knowledge. The results provide useful guidance and motivation to public authorities and development agencies interested in food security issues in Cameroon and elsewhere.     

未来对中国与世界至关重要的十年

应对气候变化已经成为全世界共同面对的重要议题 全球数千名科学家合作对温室气体排放与全球平均气温上升之间的关系做了许多模拟和情景预测.研究结果表明,如果按照目前能源利用趋势,2030年全球温室气体排放量将达402亿吨当量,几乎是1990年的两倍.这意味着大气中温室气体的浓度将超过1000 ppm(1ppm为百万分之一),全球气温将上升6摄氏度.6度升温,将导致大规模气候变化,给地球和人类带来难以承受和无法弥补的损害.     

Adaptation to climate change in Southern Africa: factoring in AIDS

This paper addresses the interactions between the AIDS epidemic and climate change in southern Africa, particularly as they impact on food security. An assessment was undertaken through a comprehensive literature review. Understanding the underlying causes of regional food insecurity inevitably means understanding the role of the AIDS epidemic and increasingly climate change amongst other stressors. AIDS cuts through household and community level capacity, as well as the capacity of key facilitators of the adaptation process including state extension services and civil society organisations. The main argument of the paper is that adaptation to climate change must explicitly factor in the existing and long-term effects of the epidemic. While calls for embracing adaptation abound, little is being done to assess and strengthen the organisational capacity of institutions, which should play leading roles in any attempt to help prepare for a changing climate. In particular the capacity of key agencies has been undermined by the AIDS epidemic. This reiterates the need for a multisectoral approach and building bridges between agriculture and health sectors to ensure longer term support to livelihoods where HIV and hunger coexist, often overlaid by climate change.     

Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy

Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development.     

Desertification,and climate change: the case for greater convergence

Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.