减排温室气体的经济手段：许可证交易和税收政策

温室气体的减排是当前国际社会关心的热点环境问题。本文首先从分析采用经济手段减排温室气体的潜在利弊出发，对温室气体排放交易和国际碳税进行了深入的分析比较。最后，提出了我国响应减排温室气体经济政策的若干建议。     

Mitigation of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions from the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain

There is much optimism that the 2015 Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention will yield an agreement on mitigation of climate change, to become effective in 2020. In this context, Bahrain represents a developing country with insufficient data to assess mitigation opportunities: its per capita carbon emissions rank among the world’s highest, yet there has been no research on the reduction potential of its rapidly growing transport sector. We examine this reduction potential and the costs of various mitigation measures and, further, explore barriers and the view of policymakers and experts. Potential benefits of combined mitigation scenarios are also identified based on their acceptability. We adopt a modified participatory method to develop the scenarios, using the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) modelling system, and find that an integrated policy approach can deliver a 23 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, costing 108 United States dollars per avoided metric tonne, with politically acceptable scenarios. Better performance, however, would require less acceptable approaches. These findings are significant for decision-making in Bahrain and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries; national target preparation and the setting of fuel economy standards should be begun promptly. We offer lessons to other developing countries on the timely regulation of technical specifications and numbers of passenger vehicles. Participatory approaches to the assessment of mitigation measures can advance environmentally effective, economically feasible and politically acceptable scenarios. The global community can use these results to provide necessary technical and financial assistance to developing countries.     

Transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects in the tropical forest sector

There is general consensus that carbon (C) sequestration projects in forests are a relatively low cost option for mitigating climate change, but most studies on the subject have assumed that transaction costs are negligible. The objectives of the study were to examine transaction costs for forest C sequestration projects and to determine the significance of the costs based on economic analyses. Here we examine four case studies of active C sequestration projects being implemented in tropical countries and developed for the C market. The results from the case studies were then used with a dynamic forest and land use economic model to investigate how transaction costs affect the efficiency and cost of forest C projects globally. In the case studies transaction costs ranged from 0.38 to 27 million US dollars ($0.09 to $7.71/t CO₂) or 0.3 to 270 % of anticipated income depending principally on the price of C and project size. The three largest cost categories were insurance (under the voluntary market; 41–89 % of total costs), monitoring (3–42 %) and regulatory approval (8–50 %). The global analysis indicated that most existing estimates of marginal costs of C sequestration are underestimated by up to 30 % because transaction costs were not included.     

The application of decision analysis in the remediation sector

Contaminated sites represent a serious environmental problem in Germany. The decision that remediation technology is optimal for a given site is complicated by the existence of multiple objectives to be optimized simultaneously, significant uncertainties about the remediation results, and the involvement of several decision-makers with conflicting interests. Decision analysis is a methodology to deal with problems of this kind. The application of decision analysis at a test site demonstrated that remediation decisions can greatly benefit from the structural guide, sound methodological approaches, and manifold results that can be deduced from decision analytic models. The careful preparation of the decision helps to prevent momentous wrong decisions, especially due to the sophisticated support, that decision analysis offers for risky decisions. Because remediation decisions can be regarded as prototypical for many decisions in the public sector, the results of this study may also impact other fields like waste management, water resource administration, traffic planning, or siting of hazardous industrial facilities.     

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the U.S. agricultural sector

When asking the question, “How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?” Sarewitz and Pielke [Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of “reconciling supply and demand of science” as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the “demand”, along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing “optimal benefit” to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers.     

Adaptation to climate change in the transport sector: a review of actions and actors

This paper identifies the literature that deals with adaptation to climate change in the transport sector. It presents a systematic review of the adaptations suggested in the literature. Although it is frequently claimed that this socially and economically important sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change, there is comparatively little research into its adaptation. The 63 sources we found are analysed following an action framework of adaptation. This distinguishes different adaptational functions and means of adaptation. By an open coding procedure, a total of 245 adaptations are found and classified. The paper shows a broad diversity of interdependent actors to be relevant—ranging from transportation providers to public and private actors and households. Crucial actors are hybrid in terms of being public or private. A substantial share of the identified adaptations follows a top-down adaptation policy pattern where a public or hybrid operator initiates action that affects private actors. Most of the exceptions from this pattern are technical or engineering measures. Identified adaptations mostly require institutional means, followed by technical means, and knowledge. Generally, knowledge on adapting transport to climate change is still in a stage of infancy. The existing literature either focuses on overly general adaptations, or on detailed technical measures. Further research is needed on the actual implementation of adaptation, and on more precise institutional instruments that fill the gap between too vague and too site-specific adaptations.     

A市产业部门碳排放分布结构及影响因素研究

本研究在对A市碳排放现状进行分析的基础上,分析了A市碳排放产业分布结构和A市碳排放的驱动因素,并根据分析的结果提出A市实现节能减排目标的政策建议。     

排污许可权交易的市场化探析

实施污染物总量控制的必要措施是在总量确定之后 ,遵循一定的规则将排污总量分解到企业 ,全面实施排污许可证制度。本文将从许可排污量的产权化、资源化入手 ,论述排污许可权交易的市场化     

Comparative analysis of diffusion of the ISO 14001 standard by sector of activity

In recent years there have been many approaches to understand the cross-country diffusion rate of the most common environmental management standards issued by the International Organization for Standardization, the ISO 14000 series, due to their spectacular growth around the world, even though a certain saturation has been detected in some countries. However, few studies have shed light on the diffusion process of these standards across sectors of activity. Therefore, the present paper examines whether there are patterns of diffusion of the ISO 14001 standard that are singular at specific sectors of economic activity. The analysis was carried out using a logistic curve that fits quite well to explain the nature of this growth, and instability and concentration indexes were calculated to analyze the evolution of the rankings of the sectors attending the number of certifications ISO 14001. It concludes that the diffusion among sectors is quite homogeneous: all sectors have experienced similar behavior. Moreover, the article proposes some suggestions for future research.     

Waste from road transport: development of a model to predict waste from end-of-life and operation phases of road vehicles in Europe

This paper presents the model developed within the TRENDS (TRansport and ENvironment Database System) project for the prediction of waste produced from road vehicles, both at their end-of-life and during vehicle operation. The model covers passenger cars and light-duty commercial vehicles on a detailed level, and heavy-duty vehicles and buses with less detail. The computer model forecasts the waste produced by road transport in Europe from 1990 to 2020 in annual steps. In analogy to the well-known emission factors, which indicate the amount of airborne emissions per kilometre travelled by a vehicle, so-called waste factors were derived which express the amount of waste produced, both per vehicle kilometre (for waste from vehicle operation), and per vehicle scrapped (for waste from end-of-life vehicles). Waste factors depend on the technology stage (EURO I, II, etc.) of the vehicles in order to reflect the rapid change in technology and in the material composition of vehicles over the last decades. Materials covered are ferrous (iron, steel) and non-ferrous metals (aluminium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, zinc, and mercury), various plastics and various kinds of operating liquids (lubricants, engine oil). On the side of the vehicle components, batteries and tires are included. Activity data needed for the forecast of the total annual waste production, such as the number of scrapped vehicles and the annual mileage per vehicle category and EU member country, were obtained from the so-called Road Transport model of TRENDS. Model results are presented for all material components as well as tires for the entire EU15 as time series from 1990 to 2020. They were validated against data originating from various sources, including the European Environment Agency and the European Tyre Recycling Association. Finally, methods for the future enhancement of the quality of the model forecasts are discussed.     

Energy use and transport correlation linking personal and travel related energy uses to the urban structure

This paper considers relationships between sustainability objectives, transport, spatial design of the built environment and rational use of energy. Conventional transport modelling, housing supply and energy assessment tools are drawn together to provide a common platform for appraisal of city-wide energy use by stationary and mobile sources. The paper outlines methodologies developed for the city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. The paper concludes by briefly reviewing the effect in terms of mobile and stationary energy consumption and travel behaviour of implementing sustainable policy measures in current and future years within the study area.     

The effect of increasing lifespan and recycling rate on carbon storage in wood products from theoretical model to application for the European wood sector

The use of wood products is often promoted as a climate change mitigation option to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In previous literature, we identified longevity and recycling rate as two determining factors that influence the carbon stock in wood products, but no studies have predicted the effect of improved wood use on carbon storage over time. In this study, we aimed at evaluating changes in the lifespan and the recycling rate as two options for enhancing carbon stock in wood products for different time horizons. We first explored the behaviour over time of both factors in a theoretical simulation, and then calculated their effect for the European wood sector of the future. The theoretical simulation shows that the carbon stock in wood products increases linearly when increasing the average lifespan of wood products and exponentially when improving the recycling rate. The emissions savings under the current use of wood products in Europe in 2030 were estimated at 57.65 Mt carbon dioxide (CO₂) per year. This amount could be increased 5 Mt CO₂ if average lifespan increased 19.54 % or if recycling rate increased 20.92 % in 2017. However, the combination of both strategies could increase the emissions saving almost 5 Mt CO₂ more by 2030. Incrementing recycling rate of paper and paperboard is the best short-term strategy (2030) to reduce emissions, but elongating average lifespan of wood-based panels is a better strategy for longer term periods (2046).     

The state of environmental performance evaluation in the public sector: the case of the Portuguese defence sector

The environmental performance evaluation (EPE) of organizations is becoming an autonomous management tool. The main goal of this research was to assess the state of EPE practice in the Portuguese defence sector, as a particular part of public services. A questionnaire survey was conducted involving all Portuguese military units that have a person in charge of environmental issues. The questionnaire was designed to assess: (i) the importance and drivers of EPE; (ii) the ISO 14031 knowledge and implementation; (iii) the knowledge and use of environmental indicators; (iv) the optimal format for indicators; and (v) the advantages and drawbacks of using environmental indicators. Despite various initiatives driving environmental practices in public organizations, most of that experience is only centred on an environmental management system, and EPE is quite a new issue. Nevertheless, general environmental performance evaluation is a growing reality and one in which Portuguese military units are taking an increasing interest. Overall respondents agree on the importance of measuring and communicating environmental performance related to their main missions and activities. The main drivers for EPE in military units are the prevention of health risks and compliance with regulations. However, to date, ISO 14031 and environmental performance indicators are almost unknown in the respondent military units. Among the three military branches, the Navy revealed the worst environmental performance evaluation knowledge, awareness and practice.     

我国碳排放权交易价格影响因素回归分析

2017年年底我国正式启动统一碳排放权交易市场,碳市场为我国实行二氧化碳减排提供了有效手段。由于碳市场起步晚,市场交易机制、法规制度等方面亟待完善。本文在探究碳排放权交易机制和碳价格形成过程的基础上,尝试将技术进步作为解释变量之一进行分析。实证研究选取2014年7月—2018年12月五个活跃度高的碳试点日交易价格数据,采用多元回归模型分析六个影响因素与我国碳排放权交易价格的相关性。实证结果表明,金融市场、能源价格、空气质量、国际碳市场、技术进步均与碳排放权交易价格存在显著的相关关系,其中技术进步因素具有较强的影响力,与碳排放交易价格呈显著的负相关关系。碳排放权交易价格影响因素的确定可为我国健全和完善统一碳排放权交易市场提供决策参考。     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agreeing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as "equitable". Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

公平与可持续：气候变化谈判的未来

2008年12月的波兹南寒气逼人,而本应唇枪舌剑、激烈交锋的联合国气候变化大会会场内,却也冒出“几丝凉气”。正如此前人们所预料到的,本次会议确实未能取得实质性和突破性的进展。同时,会场外令行人驻足观赏的人形冰雕也在提醒人们：如果地球持续变暖,人类不再有“冬天”,我们将向何处去？     

The analysis of greenhouse gas emissions/reductions in waste sector in Vietnam

The global waste sector produces, on average, 2–5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The amount of GHG emissions has grown steadily and is predicted to increase considerable in the forthcoming decades because of the increases in population and gross domestic product (GDP). However, the GHG mitigation opportunities for the sector are still fully not exploited, in particularly in developing countries. A series of initiatives were highly successful and showed that large reductions in emissions are possible. This study aims to propose a holistic quantification model, which can be used for estimation of waste generation and evaluation of the potential reduction of GHG emissions in waste sector for developing countries with a particular application to Vietnam. The two scenarios set for the study were business as usual (BaU) which waste management is assumed to follow past and current trends and CounterMeasure (CM) which alternative waste treatment and management are assessed. Total emissions in the BaU scenario are projected to increase from 29.47 MtCO₂eq in 2010 to 85.60 MtCO₂eq by 2030 and 176.32 MtCO₂eq by 2050. The highest emissions are due to methane (CH₄) released by disposal sites, accounting for about 60 % of the GHG emissions from waste in Vietnam in 2030. This emission is projected to increase significantly (67 % in 2050), unless more of the methane is captured and used for energy generation. The CM scenario gives emission reductions from 25.7 % (2020), 40.5 % (2030) to 56.6 % (2050) compared to the BaU scenario. The highest GHG reduction is achieved through recycling, followed by methane recovery to optimize the co-benefit for climate change mitigation.     

Environmental response indicators for the industrial and energy sector in Flanders

Environmental reporting with quantitative indicators is becoming popular worldwide. However, environmental response indicators, which describe the reaction of societal actors to environmental problems and to government policy, still remain under investigation. This paper describes the collection of potential response indicators for the industry and energy sectors in Flanders, the quality assessment, and the identification of a core set of suitable response indicators. The selected core set consists of four indicators: eco-efficiency (a mainstream indicator for decades), the presence of an environmental management system, the amount of environmental expenditures and the use of sustainable energy. This core set is applied to the Flemish situation in order to assess the environmental performance of the industry and energy sectors. The core set allows identification of areas where the industry and energy sectors are performing better than other sectors, as well as areas where additional efforts are needed.