Options to reduce the environmental impact by eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: model description

Kraft pulp industry contributes to several environmental problems, including global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog, toxicity and the production of solid waste. The objective of this study is to identify options to reduce the environmental pressure caused by Kraft pulp industry in Thailand, and to describe a model that quantifies the environmental impact. The model can be used to evaluate the effects of the options on the environmental impact, and the associated costs. The model includes 14 groups of options to reduce emissions and the production of waste.     

Climate Change Mitigation Activities in the Philippine Forestry Sector: Application of the COMAP Model

The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be amajor sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluatepotential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP)model. The baseline scenario (BAU) assumes that current trends continue upto the year 2030 (`business-as-usual'). Two mitigation scenarios wereevaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former ispatterned largely from the government's forest master plan while thelatter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan.The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of thePhilippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814× 10⁶ Mg C,down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS andLS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU,respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantationsand forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104× 10⁶ Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV)of benefits is highest in the bioenergyoption with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a realdiscount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs arealso highest using bioenergy.The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigationscenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263× 10⁶ while for the HS it is $748 × 10⁶. Finally, policy issues anddecisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCFmitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified anddiscussed.     

大城市机动车污染物排放与控制的情景预测

机动车排放控制措施的有效实施对改善城市大气环境质量具有重要意义. 以北京市为例,利用情景预测法评估2011—2020年各项控制措施对城市机动车常规污染物(CO、NO_x、HC、PM₁₀)的削减效果.建立Gompertz模型并估算动态车龄分布以预测机动车保有量,运用排放因子法估算6种机动车排放控制情景的污染物削减量. 结果表明:与基准情景相比,轻型客车保有量调控情景对CO、HC和PM₁₀的削减效果较显著,在2020年可分别削减7.81%、9.88%和5.78%;排放标准更新情景对4种污染物均能有效削减,尤其是对NO_x和PM₁₀,可分别削减21.19%和24.67%;而淘汰高排放机动车情景的短期削减效果显著,但中、长期效果较差;新能源车推广情景因受到经济、技术条件的限制,削减效果较弱;综合情景考虑了以上所有的削减控制措施并达到最大的削减效果,2020年对CO、NO_x、HC和PM₁₀的削减率分别达到29.45%、42.54%、28.04%和41.30%,与基准年(2010年)相比,分别削减约2.81×105、0.63×104、3.77×104和0.17×104t.      

Developing long-term strategies to reduce energy use and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions—analysis of three mitigation scenarios for iron and steel production in China

We perform a scenario analysis of three strategies for long-term energy savings and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions in iron and steel production in China, using a linear optimization modeling framework industry sector energy efficiency modeling (ISEEM). The modeling includes annual projections for one base scenario representing business-as-usual (BAU) and three additional scenarios representing different strategies to reduce annual energy use and CO₂ emissions from 2010 to 2050. Specifically, the three scenarios for cost-optimization modeling include changing the production share (PS), predefining emission reduction (ER) target, and stipulating carbon emission pricing (CP), respectively. While the three strategies are projected to result in similar annual energy savings by approximately 15 % compared to that of the BAU scenario in year 2050, the carbon emission pricing strategy brings about the highest annual energy savings in the medium term (e.g., 2025). In addition, adopting carbon emission pricing strategy will result in the highest emission reduction from BAU with much higher costs, i.e., by 20 % in 2025 and 41 % in 2050, while adopting either PS or ER strategies will result in a moderate level of emission reduction from BAU, i.e., by approximately 4 % in 2025 and 14 % in 2050. The analysis of China’s national strategies to reduce energy use and emissions provides important implications for global mitigation strategies.     

西气东输工程的环境协同效应研究

协同效应研究是气候变化政策研究的新领域,也是非常重要的领域.西气东输工程的主要目的是为我国中东部地区输送丰富的天然气资源,但其实施同时也有助于减少东部地区大气污染物排放,改善大气质量.利用较成熟的中国区域环境与经济综合评价模型(AIM-LOCAL/China模型),从用气项目的SO₂和CO₂排放的常规情景(BAU)和利用天然气后的情景(NGS)两方面进行了量化比较,分析西气东输工程的环境协同效应.研究发现:在用气项目的范围内,NGS情景下的SO₂排放相比BAU情景明显减少,同时CO₂等温室气体排放也大幅减少.2003-2020年,累计可以减排约312×104 t SO₂和3 475×104 t CO₂,分别比BAU情景减排40.5%和17.9%.从4个用气部门来看,不论是SO₂还是CO₂,电力部门用气项目的减排量都占突出位置.      

中国能源政策的大气污染物减排效果与附加效应--上海案例研究

为了研究中国能源政策对减少本地大气污染物排放的效果,以及减缓二氧化碳排放增长速度的附加效应,以上海为例,采用MARKAL模型对基础情景和能源政策情景下的能源消费及大气污染物排放量进行了预测,并分析了能源环境政策减缓二氧化碳排放增长的附加效应。结果显示,实施能源政策后,上海市的SO_2、PM_(10)。排放量均有大幅度降低,并可明显减缓CO_2排放的增长速度。2000～2020年,SO_2排放量将基本保持在2000年的水平,CO_2排放总量的年均增长率将由基础情景下的2.7％减小到能源政策情景下的1.1％～1.2％。     

Emission and odour control in Kraft pulp mills

This paper describes systematic work done in the field of atmospheric emissions from Portuguese Kraft pulp mills, focused mainly on the gaseous emissions responsible for its characteristic odour. These mal-odorous gases, which were identified as hydrogen sulphide, methyl mercaptan, deimethyl mercaptan and dimethyl-disulphide, were experimentally quantified and classified into groups so that alternatives for abatement could be devised. The considered abatement techniques were evaluated economically and it was concluded that the costs to be incurred by pulp mills for an efficient abatement of TRS gases are not dramatic and could be easily covered by this industry, resulting in an evident reduction of an important and noticeable environmental impact.     

基于情景分析的北京市机动车污染排放控制研究

为了研究未来北京市机动车排放控制措施的减排效果,本文基于情景分析法,以2010年为基准年,通过设置3类控制措施情景,估算2011~2020年不同情景下北京市机动车常规污染物排放量,并在基准情景基础上,估算污染物减排量,分析控制措施对不同类型机动车的减排贡献.结果表明,尽管未来北京市机动车保有量会有较大增长,实施机动车排放控制措施仍可取得显著的减排效果.单一措施中,淘汰高排放车减排量最大.其中,淘汰轻型客车可有效减少CO的排放,减排贡献率为89.4%;淘汰重型客车可对NOx、HC和PM10达到有效削减,其贡献率分别为65.5%、55.8%、93.4%.实施新的排放标准对重型柴油车的排放也有明显控制效果,且4种污染物都能得到有效削减.综合实施各种措施的效果最为显著,2020年对CO、NOx、HC、PM10的削减效果分别达到46.4%、42.1%、8.6%和50.6%.     

LCA of comprehensive pig manure management incorporating integrated technology systems

Increased and intensified pig production has raised the needs for proper management systems of pig manure in order to reduce negative environmental impacts. The objectives of this study were to identify the most significant environmental impacts from pig manure management considering a wide range of impact categories and to determine which integrated technology system at which handling stage can achieve the highest impact reduction. Twelve scenarios applying various treatment, storage and land application systems were developed and compared. Life cycle assessment (LCA) with the aim of capturing the actual consequences of the considered scenarios was selected as the tool for impact quantification. The most important impact categories in this investigation are global warming (GWP), aquatic eutrophication (AEP), respiratory inorganics (RIP), and terrestrial eutrophication (TEP). The two latter impacts, caused by ammonia emissions, have not been widely considered in most of previous LCA studies on pig manure management. The main keys for the effective impact reduction are the integration of treatment technology systems aiming at energy recovery with high nutrient recovery and control of greenhouse gas, ammonia, and nitrate emissions at every handling stage. For GWP and AEP, the anaerobic digestion-based scenario with natural crust storage achieves the highest impact reduction because of high efficiencies in energy and nutrient recovery with restricted emissions of GHG and nitrate. For RIP and TEP, the incineration and thermal gasification based scenarios and the scenario without a treatment system applying the deep injection method yield the highest impact minimisation due to the lowest ammonia emissions. This study further indicates the need to consider all significant impacts to decide the best management options taking into consideration local conditions.     

农村散煤替代对PM2.5污染影响及健康效益评估——以河南省为例

基于2016年河南省农村污染物排放清单,采用县级优化模型,设置了基准和散煤治理2种情景,评估了2025年1月份河南省农村散煤替代的减排潜力,利用空气质量模型（WRF-CMAQ）模拟其对PM_2.5污染改善的贡献,并采取泊松回归模型分析了相应的居民健康效益.结果表明,由于围护结构改造的成本较低及保温效果显著,其与采暖设备的组合技术在河南省农村家庭是最适合推广的采暖技术.在散煤治理情景下,2025年1月河南省农村居民燃烧源的SO₂,NO_x,CO,PM₁₀,PM_2.5,VOCs,NH₃排放量与基准情景相比分别下降了98.3%,82.6%,99.8%,99.2%,98.8%,98.2%和99.4%.散煤治理情景下河南省2025年1月PM_2.5浓度模拟结果与基准情景相比下降4.1μg/m³,可以避免2220人过早死亡,带来23.5亿元经济效益.     

北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估

北京市能源消费正面临着污染物减排和保障居民健康的双重约束. 针对未来城市能源消费设计BAU(基准情景)和2个分别基于近期和中长期节能环保要求的受控情景(EC1、EC2),模拟预测了3个情景下主要大气污染物(SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5)在目标年(2020年)的排放水平,以确定大气污染减排潜力. 分别采用综合暴露-反应关系模型(IER)和泊松回归模型,评估北京市居民对PM_2.5暴露的健康风险,估算健康损失的经济价值. 结果表明:相较BAU情景,在EC1情景下, SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5减排率分别达到52.95%、49.77%、32.82%、41.41%,可减少PM_2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病219 783例,其中死亡1 295例、住院3 920例、门诊182 558例、患病32 011例,获得健康效益111.87×108元;在EC2情景下,SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5的减排率分别达到66.61%、63.42%、54.96%、57.44%,可减少PM_2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病519 234例,其中死亡2 930例、住院9 248例、门诊427 070例、患病79 986例,获得健康效益290.10×108元. 相较EC1情景,EC2情景可产生更大的减排潜力和居民健康效益. 从空间分布上来看,北京主城区因能源方案优化获得的健康效益较大,约占总健康经济效益的60%.      

Environmental impact assessment of total chlorine free pulp from Eucalyptus globulus in Spain

Pulp industry plays an important role in the structure of European economy and society. Paper pulp manufacture, the industrial utilization of plant biomass, is increasing every year. In Spain, Eucalyptus is the dominant raw material and the Kraft cooking and total chlorine free (TCF) bleaching processes lead the procedures of Eucalyptus paper pulp production. This paper aims to identify and quantify the environmental impacts associated to Eucalyptus TCF pulp manufacture by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as an analytical tool. The system has been defined using a cradle-to-gate perspective, that is to say from forest activities to the exit gate of the pulp mill. The production of chemicals consumed in the cooking and bleaching stages as well as the on-site energy production system is the elements that contribute the most to all impact categories analyzed (more than 50% of total contributions), except for the eutrophication potential where forest activities and waste treatment play an important roles (about 52% of total). Specific actions associated to the recovery boiler, lime kiln and digestion stage could considerably reduce the environmental impact and improve the environmental performance of the Spanish paper pulp industry.     

Multi-scale scenarios of spatial-temporal dynamics in the European livestock sector

The European livestock sector has changed rapidly in the recent past and further changes are expected in the near future due to reforms in the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), increasing environmental concerns and changing consumer awareness. We developed a multi-scale modeling approach for exploring spatial and temporal dynamics of livestock distribution by accounting for drivers at different spatial scales. Such approach can provide a basis for environmental impact assessments of livestock farming at broad spatial scales. Assessment of change in both quantity and location was made for six livestock types. Four contrasting scenarios were applied ranging from globalization to regionalization, as well as from low regulation levels and dominance of market forces towards a higher degree of governmental regulation. National level livestock numbers as calculated by a macro-economic model were spatially distributed at the landscape scale according to the scenario assumptions considering biophysical, socio-economic, and political forces. Results indicate for most of the old European Union (EU) member countries a decrease in livestock numbers. In the new EU member countries sheep, goats and pigs are expected to decline while beef cattle and poultry are expected to grow. Livestock densities are expected to increase both within and outside current livestock hotspot regions in absence of environmental legislations. Environmental pressure as result of high livestock densities may, however, also remain in regulated scenarios where environmental policies are implemented and income support remains stable over time due to path dependencies in the livestock sector. But contrary to the non-regulated scenario it is less likely that new areas with high risk of negative environmental impacts due to livestock farming will develop.     

中国石化化工行业二氧化碳排放达峰路径研究

石化化工行业是高耗能高排放行业之一,约占工业部门碳排放比例的10%,研究石化化工行业碳排放达峰路径不仅能推动工业部门尽早实现达峰,同时也为石化化工行业加快绿色低碳转型指明方向. 基于中国统计年鉴、行业协会、企业碳核查等多来源数据,在分析历史排放趋势的基础上,识别能源集中度高的重点行业和产品,采用情景分析法针对石油和天然气开采业、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业三大子行业中的炼油、乙烯、丙烯、对二甲苯和合成氨等重点产品,预测其基准情景和控排情景下的重点产品产量和碳排放强度,以及石化化工行业2021—2035年二氧化碳排放趋势. 石化化工行业在基准情景下排放量无法实现2030年前达峰,控排情景下将于2030年达峰,峰值为17.3×108 t. 通过能源结构调整、节能和低碳技术改造、低碳循环及高效利用等途径可以实现行业减排,与BAU(仅考虑石化产品产量变化,不考虑产品结构、单位产品能耗变化)情景相比,减排贡献最大的路径是化石能源利用清洁化改造,2030年相对BAU减排1.19×108 t,贡献率约44%;其次是加大节能和低碳技术改造力度和资源循环及高效利用,减排量分别为0.8×108和0.6×108 t,减排贡献率分别达到29%和22%.      

Environmental impacts of farm scenarios according to five assessment methods

It is not known to what extent the outcome of studies assessing the environmental impacts of agricultural systems depends on the characteristics of the evaluation method used. The study reported here investigated five well-documented evaluation methods (DIALECTE, Ecological Footprint, Environmental Management for Agriculture, FarmSmart, Life Cycle Assessment) by applying them to a case study of three pig farm scenarios. These methods differ with respect to their global objective (evaluation of impact versus evaluation of adherence to good practice), the number and type of environmental issues they consider, the way they define the system to be analysed, the mode of expression of results (for the farm as a whole, per unit area or per unit product) and the type of indicators used (pressure, state or impact indicators). The pig farm scenarios compared were conventional good agricultural practice (GAP), a quality label scenario called red label (RL) and organic agriculture (OA). We used the methods to rank the three scenarios according to their environmental impacts. The relative ranking of the three scenarios varied considerably depending on characteristics of the evaluation method used and on the mode of expression of results. We recommend the use of evaluation methods that express results both per unit area and per unit product. Environmental evaluation methods should be used with great caution, users should carefully consider which method is most appropriate given their particular needs, taking into consideration the method's characteristics.     

基于情景分析的钢铁工业物质流与价值流协调性研究

本文基于情景分析理论和方法,建立了钢铁工业物质流与价值流协调度模型,对未来一段时期钢铁工业的协调发展状况进行研究.在维持现有发展模式的基准情景下,我国钢铁工业协调发展度将持续下降,2020年将下降到0.73.在环境恶化和经济效益相对脱钩的情景下,直到2020年我国钢铁工业协调发展度将维持在0.85的水平.而在经济与环境出现绝对脱钩的情景下,我国钢铁工业协调发展度将持续上升,2020年将达到0.95的高水平.因此,近期我国钢铁工业应遵循“基准相对脱钩绝对脱钩”的发展路径,降低总物质投入和污染物排放总量,提升经济产出效益,可持续发展才有可能实现.     

The potential benefits of on-farm mitigation scenarios for reducing multiple pollutant loadings in prioritised agri-environment areas across England

Mitigation of diffuse water pollution from agriculture is a key national environmental policy objective in England. With the recent introduction of the new agri-environment scheme, Countryside Stewardship, there is an increased emphasis on the macro-spatial targeting of on-farm mitigation measures to reduce pollutant pressures, and a concomitant need to forecast the technically feasible impacts of on-farm measures detailed in current policy and their associated costs and benefits. This paper reports the results of a modelling application to test these limits in the context of the associated costs and benefits for the reduction of diffuse water pollution from agriculture for each Water Framework Directive (WFD) water management catchment (WMC) and nationally. Four mitigation scenarios were modelled, including pollutant source control measures only (SC), mobilisation control measures only (MC), delivery control measures only (DC) and measures for source, mobilisation and delivery control (SMDC) combined. Projected impacts on nitrate, phosphorus and sediment export to water, ammonia, methane and nitrous oxide emissions to the atmosphere, together with the associated costs to the agricultural sector were estimated for each WFD WMC and nationally. Median WMC-scale reductions (with uncertainty ranges represented by 5th–95th percentiles) in current agricultural emissions, were predicted to be highest for the SMDC scenario; nitrate (18%, 11–23%), phosphorus (28%, 22–37%), sediment (25%, 18–43%), ammonia (26%, 17–32%), methane (13%, 7–18%) and nitrous oxide (18%, 16–20%). The median benefit-to-cost ratios (with uncertainty ranges represented by 5th–95th percentiles) were predicted to be in the following order; DC (0.15, 0.09–0.65), MC (0.19, 0.09–0.95), SMDC (0.31, 0.20–1.39) and SC (0.44, 0.19–2.48). Of the four scenarios simulated, the SC and SMDC suites of measures have the greatest potential to deliver reductions in BAU emissions from agriculture, and the best benefit:cost ratio.     

多情景视角下京津冀碳排放达峰预测与减排潜力

京津冀地区是中国核心经济区的重要组成部分,也是碳排放重点区域,其碳排放早日达峰对实现国家达峰目标尤为关键。通过分析碳排放及影响因素的关系,构建碳排放系统动力学模型,并设置六种情景方案,模拟预测其对北京、天津和河北碳达峰时间、峰值及减排潜力的影响。结果显示：（1）基准情景下,北京已经实现碳达峰,天津预计2023年碳达峰,而河北则难在2035年前达峰。（2）协调发展情景即综合调控政策,较单一措施情景,各地区碳减排效果最优;其中,北京2020—2030年碳排放较基准情景下降13.52%,天津碳达峰可提前至2021年,河北则可在2030年达到峰值。（3）单一措施情景下,环保情景对北京碳减排作用最显著,而节能减排情景则是实现天津与河北碳达峰的最佳发展模式。     

Brazil's Electric Power Choices and Their Corresponding Carbon Emissions Implications

This study analyzes the options for meeting power demand in the Brazilianpower sector through the year 2015. Three policy cases are constructedto test economic and environmental policy measures against a baseline:advanced technologies scenario, environmental control scenario and carbon(C) elimination scenario. Least-cost modeling simulated these scenarios throughchanges in emissions fees and caps, costs for advanced technologies,demand side efficiency, and clean energy supplies. Results show that, in theabsence of alternative policies, new additions to Brazil's electric powersector will shift rapidly from hydroelectricity to combined-cycle natural gasplants. When the cost of environmental impacts are incorporated in theprice of power, the least-cost mix of electric power generation technologycould change in other ways. In all scenarios, energy efficiency andcogeneration play an important role in the least-cost power solution. Savingelectricity through increased efficiency offsets the needs for new supply andhas enormous potential in Brazil's industrial sector. Efficiency also reducesthe environmental burden associated with electricity production andtransmission, without compromising the quality of the services demandedby end users. Interesting enough, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will remainrelatively low under almost every conceivable scenario.     

高耗水工业用水量控制和水价调整政策效果研究:基于水资源动态CGE的分析

论文应用水资源动态CGE模型,研究和分析了高耗水工业不同水资源管理政策对经济、社会和水资源利用的影响。文章首先构建了将水资源作为生产要素的CGE模型,并建立了动态机制,然后以2010年为基准年模拟和分析了2010—2020年间高耗水工业用水量控制和水价上涨不同情景下的影响。分析表明:高耗水工业的水量控制比水价调整对宏观经济的影响大,表现为GDP和居民福利的显著下降以及投资的大幅度上升;而高耗水工业水价上升对宏观经济的影响较小,表现为GDP的小幅度上升以及居民福利的小幅度下降和投资的上升;对部门的影响比较复杂,但高耗水工业水量下降和水价上升,都将导致其产出降低。对水资源利用的影响显示,水量控制和水价上升对用水总量的影响较小,但对提高工业用水效率都十分显著。