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1.
Fiat boundaries: some implications for interpretation,decision-support,and multi-temporal analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kim Lowell 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):369-383
Polygon-based thematic maps can be composed of boundaries that exist by definition—i.e., bona fide boundaries—or those that
exist relative to a specific interpretation of a spatial phenomenon—i.e., fiat boundaries. The construction of maps composed
of fiat boundaries is usually based on a subjective interpretive methodology that is affected by the data used to construct
the map and the minimum mapping unit employed. That fiat boundaries are not the same as bona fide boundaries affects their
use in computer-based spatial decision support tools. This is discussed both in terms of an analysis conducted at one specific
moment, and in respect to increasingly common multi-temporal analysis.
相似文献
Kim LowellEmail: |
2.
Den Boychuk W. John Braun Reg J. Kulperger Zinovi L. Krougly David A. Stanford 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):133-151
We consider a stochastic fire growth model, with the aim of predicting the behaviour of large forest fires. Such a model can
describe not only average growth, but also the variability of the growth. Implementing such a model in a computing environment
allows one to obtain probability contour plots, burn size distributions, and distributions of time to specified events. Such
a model also allows the incorporation of a stochastic spotting mechanism.
相似文献
Reg J. KulpergerEmail: |
3.
Coverage, i.e., the area covered by the target attribute in the study region, is a key parameter in many surveys. Coverage
estimation is usually performed by adopting a replicated protocol based on line-intercept sampling coupled with a suitable
linear homogeneous estimator. Since coverage is a parameter which may be interestingly represented as the integral of a suitable
function, improved Monte Carlo strategies for implementing the replicated protocol are introduced in order to achieve estimators
with small variance rates. In addition, new specific theoretical results on Monte Carlo integration methods are given to deal
with the integrand functions arising in the special coverage estimation setting.
相似文献
Lucio BarabesiEmail: |
4.
When animals die in traps in a mark-recapture study, straightforward likelihood inferences are possible in a class of models.
The class includes M0, Mt, and Mb as reported by White et al. (Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-8787-NERP, pp 235, 1982), those that do not involve heterogeneity.
We include three Markov chain “persistence” models and show that they provide good fits in a trapping study of deer mice in
the Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument of Southern Oregon where trapping mortality was high.
相似文献
Fred L. RamseyEmail: |
5.
Michelle Portman 《Journal of Coastal Conservation》2007,11(2):121-131
Policy tools that allow for the coordination of various authorities at different levels of government are important for coastal
protected areas. Frequently, multiple authorities manage these areas with varied and sometimes conflicting goals. This study
examines a regulatory model implemented on the Cape Cod National Seashore in the US that uses federally-approved zoning to
regulate private uses for protection of natural coastal resources. Local authorities implement the zoning which is designed
to support national resource protection goals making this a prime model of cross-level governance for conservation. I use
case study analysis to evaluate the program’s effectiveness by focusing on implementation and compliance in the context of
multi-jurisdictional (i.e., national to local) relations. The analysis and subsequent discussion highlight the difficulties
associated with implementation of intergovernmental mandates. Also, theoretical perspectives on compliance give insights about
the implementation challenges of this model. The model’s limitations have implications for policymakers considering similar
schemes implemented by split and hierarchical authorities with different, and possibly conflicting, coastal management goals.
相似文献
Michelle PortmanEmail: |
6.
We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of spatially referenced time series of extreme values.
We assume that the observations follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions whose locations and scales are jointly
spatially dependent where the dependence is captured using multivariate Markov random field models specified through coregionalization.
In addition, there is temporal dependence in the locations. There are various ways to provide appropriate specifications;
we consider four choices. The models can be fitted using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to enable inference for
parameters and to provide spatio–temporal predictions. We fit the models to a set of gridded interpolated precipitation data
collected over a 50-year period for the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, summarizing results for what appears to be
the best choice of model.
相似文献
Alan E. GelfandEmail: |
7.
Andrew O. Finley Sudipto Banerjee Ronald E. McRoberts 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(2):241-258
In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply,
there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small
area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based
approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability
of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s
posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The
paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot
data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries
of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest
and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification
accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.
相似文献
Ronald E. McRobertsEmail: |
8.
Max A. Moritz Tadashi J. Moody Lori J. Miles Matthew M. Smith Perry de Valpine 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):271-289
Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems.
Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over
the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources
(e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread
use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and
to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case
study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial
resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical
intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates
were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years
and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can
have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.
相似文献
Max A. MoritzEmail: |
9.
Griffith DA 《Environmental geochemistry and health》2008,30(6):495-509
Properly sampling soils and mapping soil contamination in urban environments requires that impacts of spatial autocorrelation
be taken into account. As spatial autocorrelation increases in an urban landscape, the amount of duplicate information contained
in georeferenced data also increases, whether an entire population or some type of random sample drawn from that population
is being analyzed, resulting in conventional power and sample size calculation formulae yielding incorrect sample size numbers
vis-à-vis model-based inference. Griffith (in Annals, Association of American Geographers, 95, 740–760, 2005) exploits spatial statistical model specifications to formulate equations for estimating the necessary sample
size needed to obtain some predetermined level of precision for an analysis of georeferenced data when implementing a tessellation
stratified random sampling design, labeling this approach model-informed, since a model of latent spatial autocorrelation
is required. This paper addresses issues of efficiency associated with these model-based results. It summarizes findings from
a data collection exercise (soil samples collected from across Syracuse, NY), as well as from a set of resampling and from
a set of simulation experiments following experimental design principles spelled out by Overton and Stehman (in Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 22, 2641–2660). Guidelines are suggested concerning appropriate sample size (i.e., how many) and sampling network (i.e., where).
相似文献
Daniel A. GriffithEmail: |
10.
Ferenc Csillag Sándor Kabos Tarmo K. Remmel 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2008,15(4):385-401
We revisit one of the classical problems in geography and cartography where multiple observations on a lattice (N) need to be grouped into many fewer regions (G), especially when this number of desired regions is unknown a priori. Since an optimization through all possible aggregations
is not feasible, a hierarchical classification scheme is proposed with an objective function sensitive to spatial pattern.
The objective function to be minimized during the assignment of observations to regions (classification) consists of two terms:
the first characterizes accuracy and the second, model complexity. For the latter, we introduce a spatial measure that characterizes
the number of homogeneous patches rather than the usual number of classes. A simulation study shows that such a classification
procedure is less sensitive to random and spatially correlated error (noise) than non-spatial classification. We also show
that for conditional autoregressive error (noise) fields the optimal partitioning is the one that has the highest within-units
generalized Moran coefficient. The classifier is implemented in ArcView to demonstrate both a socio-economic and an environmental
application to illustrate some potential applications.
相似文献
Tarmo K. Remmel (Corresponding author)Email: |
11.
12.
Matthew R. Schofield Richard J. Barker Darryl I. MacKenzie 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):369-387
Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression
of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent
variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient
way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood
we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS.
We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including
auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.
相似文献
Darryl I. MacKenzieEmail: |
13.
The influence of multiple anchored fish aggregating devices (FADs) on the spatial behavior of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) was investigated by equipping all thirteen FADs surrounding the island of Oahu (HI, USA) with automated sonic receivers
(“listening stations”) and intra-peritoneally implanting individually coded acoustic transmitters in 45 yellowfin and 12 bigeye
tuna. Thus, the FAD network became a multi-element passive observatory of the residence and movement characteristics of tuna
within the array. Yellowfin tuna were detected within the FAD array for up to 150 days, while bigeye tuna were only observed
up to a maximum of 10 days after tagging. Only eight yellowfin tuna (out of 45) and one bigeye tuna (out of 12) visited FADs
other than their FAD of release. Those nine fish tended to visit nearest neighboring FADs and, in general, spent more time
at their FAD of release than at the others. Fish visiting the same FAD several times or visiting other FADs tended to stay
longer in the FAD network. A majority of tagged fish exhibited some synchronicity when departing the FADs but not all tagged
fish departed a FAD at the same time: small groups of tagged fish left together while others remained. We hypothesize that
tuna (at an individual or collective level) consider local conditions around any given FAD to be representative of the environment
on a larger scale (e.g., the entire island) and when those conditions become unfavorable the tuna move to a completely different
area. Thus, while the anchored FADs surrounding the island of Oahu might concentrate fish and make them more vulnerable to
fishing, at a meso-scale they might not entrain fish longer than if there were no (or very few) FADs in the area. At the existing
FAD density, the ‘island effect’ is more likely to be responsible for the general presence of fish around the island than
the FADs. We recommend further investigation of this hypothesis.
相似文献
Laurent Dagorn (Corresponding author)Email: |
Kim N. HollandEmail: |
David G. ItanoEmail: |
14.
The common occurrence of food transfers within human hunter–gatherer and forager–horticulturalist groups presents exciting test cases for evolutionary models of altruism. While kin biases in sharing are consistent with nepotism based on kin selection, there is much debate over the extent to which reciprocal altruism and tolerated scrounging provide useful explanations of observed behavior. This paper presents a model of optimal sharing breadth and depth, based on a general non-tit-for-tat form of risk-reduction based reciprocal altruism, and tests a series of predictions using data from Hiwi and Ache foragers. I show that large, high variance food items are shared more widely than small, easily acquired food items. Giving is conditional upon receiving in pairwise interactions and this correlation is usually stronger when the exchange of value rather than quantities is considered. Larger families and low producing families receive more and give less, consistent with the notion that marginal value may be a more salient currency than quantity.
相似文献
Michael GurvenEmail: Phone: +1-805-8932202 |
15.
Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accommodating model uncertainty when estimating risk. Although the use
of MA is inherently appealing, little is known about its performance using general modeling conditions. We investigate the
use of MA for estimating excess risk using a Monte Carlo simulation. Dichotomous response data are simulated under various
assumed underlying dose–response curves, and nine dose–response models (from the USEPA Benchmark dose model suite) are fit
to obtain both model specific and MA risk estimates. The benchmark dose estimates (BMDs) from the MA method, as well as estimates
from other commonly selected models, e.g., best fitting model or the model resulting in the smallest BMD, are compared to
the true benchmark dose value to better understand both bias and coverage behavior in the estimation procedure. The MA method
has a small bias when estimating the BMD that is similar to the bias of BMD estimates derived from the assumed model. Further,
when a broader range of models are included in the family of models considered in the MA process, the lower bound estimate
provided coverage close to the nominal level, which is superior to the other strategies considered. This approach provides
an alternative method for risk managers to estimate risk while incorporating model uncertainty.
相似文献
Matthew W. WheelerEmail: |
16.
In this paper we examine the use of data augmentation techniques for simplifying iterative simulation in the context of both
Bayesian and classical statistical inference for survival rate estimation. We examine two distinct model families common in
population ecology to illustrate our ideas, ring-recovery models and capture–recapture models, and we present the computational
advantage of this approach. We discuss also the fact that problems associated with identifiability in the classical framework
can be overcome using data augmentation, but highlight the dangers in doing so under both inferential paradigms.
相似文献
I. C. OlsenEmail: |
17.
Modeling and analysis of nest-site selection by honeybee swarms: the speed and accuracy trade-off 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3
Nest-site selection in honeybees is a process of social decision making in which the scout bees in a swarm locate several
potential nest sites, evaluate them, and select the best one by means of competitive signaling. We develop a model of this
process and validate that the model possesses the key features of the bees' decision-making process, as revealed by prior
empirical studies. Next, we use the model to study the “design” of the nest-site selection process, with a focus on how certain
behavioral parameters have been tuned by natural selection to achieve a balance between speed and accuracy. First, we study
the effects of the quorum threshold and the dance decay rate. We show that evolution seems to have settled on values for these
two parameters that seek a balance between speed and accuracy of decision making by minimizing the time needed to achieve
a consensus and maximizing the probability that the best site is chosen. Second, we study the adaptive tuning of the tendency
of bees to explore for vs be recruited to a site. We show that this tendency appears to be tuned to regulate the positive
feedback process of recruitment to ensure both a reasonably rapid choice and a low probability of a poor choice. Finally we
show that the probability of choosing the best site is proportional to its quality, but that this proportionality depends
on its quality relative to other discovered sites.
相似文献
Thomas D. SeeleyEmail: |
18.
Hierarchical spatial point process analysis for a plant community with high biodiversity 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Janine B. Illian Jesper Møller Rasmus P. Waagepetersen 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(3):389-405
A complex multivariate spatial point pattern of a plant community with high biodiversity is modelled using a hierarchical
multivariate point process model. In the model, interactions between plants with different post-fire regeneration strategies
are of key interest. We consider initially a maximum likelihood approach to inference where problems arise due to unknown
interaction radii for the plants. We next demonstrate that a Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for incorporating
prior information concerning the interaction radii. From an ecological perspective, we are able both to confirm existing knowledge
on species’ interactions and to generate new biological questions and hypotheses on species’ interactions.
相似文献
Rasmus P. WaagepetersenEmail: |
19.
Chang Xuan Mao 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2007,14(4):473-481
Consider the removal experiment used to estimate population sizes. Statistical methods towards testing the homogeneity of
capture probabilities of animals, including a graphical diagnostic and a formal test, are presented and illustrated by real
biological examples. Simulation is used to assess the test and compare it with the χ2 test.
相似文献
Chang Xuan MaoEmail: |
20.
Frederic Paik Schoenberg Jamie Pompa Chien-Hsun Chang 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》2009,16(2):251-269
This paper explores the use of, and problems that arise in, kernel smoothing and parametric estimation of the relationships
between wildfire incidence and various meteorological variables. Such relationships may be treated as components in separable
point process models for wildfire activity. The resulting models can be used for comparative purposes in order to assess the
predictive performance of the Burning Index.
相似文献
Frederic Paik SchoenbergEmail: |