不同补贴机制下的农村清洁取暖价格政策分析

补贴是北方农村清洁取暖价格政策的重要方面,确保兼顾清洁能源替代和农村居民取暖福利,从而实现政策的可持续性. 基于天津、衡水、德州3个城市的实地调研数据,通过配对样本t检验、多元回归和费用效益分析方法,探究了不同补贴机制下的清洁取暖价格政策对居民用能行为和取暖福利的影响. 结果表明:①清洁取暖价格政策会导致取暖成本增加,补贴会显著提高用气量和体感温度,但使各城市面临较大财政压力. ②各地农村清洁取暖价格政策在对用能行为、污染减排效果的影响方面存在较大差异. ③一次性补贴通过减少清洁能源消费量同时增加体感温度,提供了扭曲的价格信号. ④家庭收入显著影响清洁取暖价格政策效果. 因此,一次性补贴需要向从量补贴转变,补贴可以考虑向低收入家庭倾斜或者实施阶梯化的补贴. 为建立清洁取暖长效机制,一方面可以考虑针对农村清洁取暖建立区域大气污染补偿机制,从而推动各地建立因地制宜的清洁取暖价格补贴机制;另一方面可通过改进清洁取暖技术来降低成本,同时开发多种形式的清洁能源. 从长远看,仍需要增加农民保持可接受的收入水平的机会,逐步降低农村居民对清洁取暖补贴的依赖性.      

Electricity price subsidy or carbon-trading subsidy: which is more efficient to develop photovoltaic power generation from a government perspective?

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has high investment costs and long payback periods. Therefore, during early deployment, subsidies are fundamental and necessary to accelerate its development. We consider the question of how to promote PV industry development and which supporting policy is more efficient in accelerating adoption. Based on real options method, we establish a subsidy efficiency model for electricity price subsidies and carbon-trading subsidies under two sources of uncertainty power demand for PV and the investment cost-reduction probability. This study aims to compare the two forms of subsidies from the perspective of promoting immediate investment and maximizing the subsidy policy efficiency for the government (minimizing the unit carbon-mitigation cost) and advance relevant policy proposals. An example of China is provided to test the effectiveness of the model and to illustrate the implications of the solutions. The results show that a carbon-trading subsidy is better than an electricity price subsidy and that it is essential to improve the demand for the power produced by the PV power-generation projects. Lower market risk and driving technology progress are both conducive to improving the subsidy efficiency. This study also provides a meaningful reference for governments worldwide to formulate subsidy programs to support PV power-generation projects.     

补贴对林业生产及森林生态效益影响的经济学分析:一个定量分析模型

不同的林业补贴产生不同的效果:可能提高社会福利,也可能降低社会福利。出现这种差别的原因是补贴使林业生产收益流发生了变化,从而使得林业生产收益最大净现值到来的时间相对于社会最优时间提前或延后。论文建立了一个以林木吸收碳来衡量森林生态效益的林业生产收益定量模型,并通过该模型对华东某市的一项林场补贴政策进行分析。分析结果是,在没有补贴的情况下,该林场最优砍伐时间为第19年,当存在补贴的情况下,林场的最优砍伐时间提前到第11年,而随着碳价格从0增加至1000元/t,社会最优砍伐时间从第19年增加到第31年,造成的社会净损失从7750元/hm²增加到17704元/hm²。鉴于此,合理的林业补贴要能够促使私人效益与社会效益相统一。     

石羊河流域水资源问题的制度原因及对策

文章从制度角度分析了石羊河流域的水资源问题并提出了对策。在分析石羊河流域水资源及其开发利用和现行管理体制的基础上认为:水资源问题的制度原因是传统的发展模式导致部门间水资源供需矛盾紧张;区域管理体制导致上下游地区间水资源冲突频繁;忽视和挤占环境用水导致生态环境严重恶化;不透明的补贴方式扭曲价格信号和影响水资源需求;区域内分散的管理体制加剧了流域水资源问题。因此,从制度上解决石羊河流域的水资源问题,需要推行流域水、土地、森林资源统一管理,制定《石羊河流域管理条例》,改革现行资源管理体制,建立透明的补贴机制和合理的价格机制。     

陇中黄土丘陵地区农村生活能源消费的环境经济成本分析

陇中黄土丘陵地区经济贫困、环境脆弱、生活能源短缺,生物质过量消费成为生态环境退化的重要驱动因素。论文通过问卷调查获取相关数据,并建立计量模型,基于替代性分析估算了不同用能结构情景下的环境经济成本。结果表明,现状户均生活能源消费2 112.44kgce/a,人均428.59kgce/a,用能水平较低。目前农户消费能源选择的主要依据是能源的现金支出和可获得性。与农户现状用能结构相比较,4种替代结构的能源消费总成本、环境成本、经济成本及现金支出差异较大。利用沼气和太阳能的结构各项成本低,应是今后农村能源建设的方向。     

计及消费领域的碳补贴政策演化博弈

考虑到企业和消费者的低碳策略往往受到政府补贴政策的影响,构建了消费者、消费领域相关企业和政府的三方演化博弈模型,探讨多种因素对各主体策略选择的影响机制.研究表明:企业低碳生产的概率与政府补贴力度、消费者低碳偏好、放弃低碳生产的机会成本和市场损失正相关,与生产方式转变成本负相关;消费者低碳消费的概率与政府补贴力度、低碳偏...     

村镇生活垃圾热解处理技术综述

村镇生活垃圾处理是关系环境生态、经济民生的重要问题,是我国发展生态文明、建设美丽乡村的重要环节.新形势下,村镇生活垃圾处理不仅要求减量化、无害化,同时应实现就近、就地处理,资源、能源回用.本文综述了我国村镇生活垃圾产量与分布特性,对比分析当前村镇生活垃圾的处理模式与常用技术.热解技术是一项新兴的村镇生活垃圾技术.针对村镇生活垃圾热解工艺,从过程控制、产物导向、装备设计、研究前沿等角度展开全方位分析,列举相关政策法规,并对现有应用示范进行梳理分析.     

Review of water pollution control in China

Water resource shortage and pollution has seriously threatened the survival and development of developing countries. Because of China’s specific economical and social circumstances, complete adoption of developed countries’ experience is unrealistic. At present, China needs to develop strategies and technologies in source water pollution control and municipal environmental remediation that embrace the country’s specific need to battle the water resource problem. Among them, efficient source water pretreatment is a critical step to ensure a safe municipal water supply. Unlike developed countries, it is not yet feasible in China to treat water supplied to the household and have it meet the standard of direct drinking; therefore, it is more appropriate to refer to it as service water. As a beneficial supplement, an additional community drinking water network and household drinking water apparatus can be considered.     

我国农村能源政策以及收入水平对农户生活能源需求的影响研究

针对传统能源使用过程中产生的环境、气候问题,由中央政府制定并实施的农村能源政策倡导农户使用多种清洁能源及技术。同时,商品能源逐步成为当下农户生活能源的重要组成部分。“并举式”的能源政策是否造成甚至扩大不同能源、技术的需求差异,这一结果是否符合政策的初衷和目标?基于此,论文研究并分析2005—2014年农村能源政策以及收入水平对农户生活能源需求的影响。结果表明：政策的实施加剧了存在替代关系的能源、技术需求间的此消彼长;政策的溢出效应促进了部分商品能源需求;收入的提高对部分能源需求产生了正向作用。建议制定兼顾清洁能源以及商品能源的农村能源发展战略和政策,实现政策的精准发力,同时加强能源基础设施的建设和管理。     

东江源受偿意愿调查与跨省生态补偿机制研究

文章分别调查了东江源区居民受偿意愿和两地政府对东江源生态补偿机制的诉求。调查表明:居民家庭收入低下,68%的被调查者认为为保护东江水质对家庭收入产生了影响;94%的被调查者认为有必要实施生态补偿,且其中90%的人表示如果接受补偿,将愿意放弃一些会对东江水质保护产生不利影响的经济发展机会;对生态公益林补偿标准期望值在2 250元/(hm2.a)以上,在补偿形式上更青睐现金补偿。分析了中央、广东省和江西省政府之间的利益博弈,提出了建立东江源跨省生态补偿机制的政策建议。     

基于高精度清单的京津冀机动车控污政策研究

为研究京津冀机动车污染控制政策对CO、HC、NO_x、PM_2.5、PM₁₀等污染物的减排效果,建立了2014年高精度机动车排放清单,选取过去已经实施,未来规划实施及优化/劣化后的若干政策,设置4类共13种政策情景,与实际清单基准情景进行对比,识别各政策情景的排放变化,并对其中由政府给予补贴的政策进行成本收益核算.结果显示,淘汰低排放标准机动车带来的污染减排效果最好,在天津和河北对CO和HC的排放削减分别为53.19%,49.75%和51.28%,50.87%,达半数及以上;升级机动车发动机和燃油标准也能显著削减排放,在天津和河北对PM_2.5、PM₁₀的削减分别为17.01%,17.00%和21.95%,21.93%.政府补贴政策存在明显边际效应特征,排放标准高,重污染车少的北京单位成本的减排收益明显低于天津和河北,.河北和天津在考虑成本因素的基础上,应当逐步采纳北京的高标准减排政策;北京则可在一定条件下,将一部分低效的政府补贴通过合理方式转移支付给天津和河北,以提高政府投入的减排效率.     

农业节水技术的采用及影响因素

采用农业节水技术已成为很多国家缓解农业用水压力的重要途径之一;近年来我国政府也加大了对农业节水技术的投资力度。由于缺乏对农业节水技术采用影响因素的深入了解,因而在很大程度上阻碍了节水技术的大面积推广。为此,论文采用3 a面板数据对我国黄河和海河流域农业节水技术采用的现状、发展趋势及影响因素开展了定量实证分析。研究结果表明,尽管农业节水技术采用的空间分布较广且扩散很快,但是以播种面积测量的采用程度却很低。资金需求少和一家一户易于采用的传统型和农户型节水技术的采用程度相对较高,而资金需求大且需要集体行动的社区型节水技术的采用程度很低且发展缓慢。政府的政策支持和水资源的短缺程度也是影响农业节水技术采用的两个重要因素。如果政府希望推动农业节水技术的采用,节水技术的推广政策和示范村的建立都是十分有效的政策工具。     

Assessing external factors on substitution of fossil fuel by biofuels: model perspective from the Nordic region

The aim of this study is to develop a theoretical model by which to demonstrate how taxes and subsidies work as external factors to substitute fossil fuel by a forest-based biofuel. For biofuels, this study predominantly considers solid-form biomass that generates electricity; for fossil fuels, it considers coal. The model results explicated with three states by using various numeric values taken from the literature. Three states are as follows: a situation without a tax and subsidy, a situation with a biofuel subsidy, and a situation with a biofuel subsidy and a fossil fuel tax. The results of the first state exemplify current fuel market situation; those of the second indicate that the aggregate demand for biofuel has shifted upwards by around 15 % and that substitution has increased by around 18 % due to biofuel subsidies being offered. Under the third state, aggregate biofuel demand has shifted upwards by around 19 %, reduced the demand for fossil fuels by around 13 %, and increased substitution by around 31 %. This state relates to a greater sense of social welfare than other two states. It is conceivable that the joint application of taxes and subsidies will succour biofuel to supplant fossil fuel in the near future.     

农村居民食物消费结构对耕地需求的影响——以西藏“一江两河”流域为例

发展人工种草是缓解西藏草畜矛盾和生态环境问题的重要途径之一。食物消费结构趋向多元化,内地食物消费比重增加,缓解了西藏地区食物生产压力,为西藏农业地区发展种草提供了有利条件。论文基于农户食物生产和消费调研数据、市场调研数据并且结合统计数据资料,在利用和改进Gerbens-Leenes等(2002)发展的食物消费与耕地需求之间关系的方法基础之上,系统分析了"一江两河"流域(拉萨地区、日喀则地区和山南地区)农户腾出耕地种草的潜力。结果显示,西藏农区居民家庭食物消费结构耕地需求不高,理论上腾出耕地种草潜力较大。2010年"一江两河"流域中的拉萨市、日喀则地区以及山南地区户均耕地需求分别为5 542.3、7 400.1和5 521.7 m~2,而腾出耕地种草的潜力分别为4 777.5、2 977.3和2 054.4 m~2,拉萨地区、日喀则地区和山南地区分别占到户均耕地面积的46.3%、28.7%以及27.1%。但是,考虑到当地快速的人口增长以及脆弱的生态环境对农业生产的不利因素,"一江两河"流域不同地区应该根据各自农业生产特点以及畜牧业发展水平,有针对性地开展农牧业结构调整,通过种草补贴等激励措施和政策,提高农户种草积极性,开拓饲草市场,统筹土地的种粮和种草功能,优化配置土地饲草资源,缓解当地草畜矛盾,增加农户种草收入。     

中国北方沙漠化地区生态重建的环境政策研究——基于Bioe-conomic Model

论文以内蒙古沙漠化地区为例,运用Bioe-conom ic M odel,比较自由放牧与耕垦、禁牧与禁垦、控制放牧规模与禁垦的土地利用政策情景下,引进舍饲养牛技术与信贷服务和增加非农就业机会对农户土地利用决策及其家庭收入的影响,据此探讨中国北方地区沙漠化发展的人文驱动机制以及生态重建的环境政策。结果表明:实施控制放牧规模与禁垦的环境政策,同时引进舍饲养牛技术能够有效地促进生态重建并提高农户收入;引进舍饲养牛技术需要启动基金,提供信贷服务和增加非农就业机会是贫困农户引进该技术的前提。因此,迫切需要调整宏观环境政策,提高农业集约化经营水平和城乡联系力度,从而提高农户家庭收入、减轻农民对环境的依赖性和促进农村的可持续发展。     

补贴政策对自然保护区资源保护的作用和局限——以洪湖自然保护区的拆网政策为例

以洪湖湿地自然保护区的拆网政策为例,通过渔民的围网博弈过程,分析补贴在自然保护区自然资源管理过程中的作用。结果显示,由于自然保护区自然资源的公共物品特点,导致自然保护区陷入公地悲剧陷阱。一次性补贴在激励渔民放弃过度围网行为方面起到了重要的作用。但是就长期而言,由于自然保护区的公共物品特征仍然存在,渔民在生产决策过程中仍然有"搭便车"的可能,单纯采用补贴政策不仅不能起到有效的作用,反而会导致过度利用自然资源的行为更多地发生。从博弈分析来看,要完全避免自然保护区的公地悲剧,应当以补贴为基础,结合政府的严格管理,进行其他制度创新,以实现保护的长效激励机制。     

Econometric analysis of the determinants of adoption of alley farming by farmers in the forest zone of southwest Cameroon

Slash-and-burn agriculture continues to expand in many parts of the forest zone of Cameroon. One alternative land use to slash-and-burn system is alley farming. This paper quantifies, using an econometric model, the factors determining farmers’ adoption and use of alley farming variants in southwest of Cameroon, based on a survey of 156 farmers in 11 villages in the region.The analysis showed that male farmers are more likely to adopt than women. Adoption is higher for farmers with contacts with extension agencies working on agroforestry technologies. Adoption is higher for farmers belonging to farmers’ groups. Adoption is lower for farmers in areas with very high population pressure, as farmers in such areas may have greater labor productivity from use of less labor intensive natural resource management technologies like chemical fertilizers. Adoption is higher for farmers in areas facing fuel wood scarcity. Farmers have made adaptations to the conventional alley farming technology recommended by researchers, the most significant adaptation being the introduction of fallow periods into the system. Farmers use alley farming as a land use option, not as a replacement for the slash-and-burn system, since land supply is still relatively elastic. Achieving increased impact with alley farming variants requires effective targeting. Results showed that econometric modeling using farmer and village characteristics, socioeconomic and institutional variables can lead to more effective targeting to farmers and locations where higher adoption rates may occur.     

居民生活垃圾及生活污水产生量的影响因素通径分析

通过构建多元通径分析模型,定量分析中国各地区人口总数、生产总值、居民消费水平和生活供水用水量对生活垃圾清运量和生活污水排放量的直接影响和间接影响。结果表明各地区的生产总值对生活垃圾清运量的直接影响最大。生活用水供水量也对生活垃圾的清运量有一定的直接影响,居民消费水平和人口总数几乎没有直接影响。人口总数对垃圾清运量的间接影响最大,居民生活用水供水量、居民消费水平、地区生产总值对于垃圾清运量都具有不同程度的间接影响。生活用水供水量对生活污水排放量影响最大,地区生产总值和居民消费水平对生活污水排放量也有一定的直接影响,而人口总数几乎没有直接影响。人口总数对生活污水排放量的间接影响最大,其次是地区生产总值、居民消费水平和生活用水供水量对污水排放量也有间接影响。     

The adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK: exploring the consumer attitude–action gap

This paper reports the initial findings of two research projects that identify attitudinal barriers inhibiting the adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK. The first, conducted for the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership by Ecolane Transport Consultancy, reviews the evidence of consumer attitudes to low carbon cars. The study shows that car buyers have a poor knowledge of cleaner car technologies, the environmental impacts of road transport and car ownership costs. The second study, initiated within the Open University's Design Innovation Group, identifies key ‘hotspot’ factors that influence consumers' adoption of low carbon products. The study, which is ongoing, has concluded that identifying where and when these hotspot points of leverage occur could help inform initiatives to facilitate consumer adoption and effective use.     

Climate change and agricultural technology adoption: the case of drought tolerant maize in rural Nigeria

Climate change is a major problem undermining agricultural production in Africa. Consequently, efforts are being made to provide farmers with adaptation technologies, but little empirical research exists on the determinants of adopting such technologies. This article addresses this research gap, using the case of drought tolerant maize (DTM) technology in Nigeria. With survey data from 200 farm households and econometric techniques, we explore the determinants of whether to invest and how much to invest in adaptation technology by smallholder farmers. Results from the study indicate that among the key determinants of adoption are access to the technology, complementary inputs, extension services, and climate change information. We also show that off-farm income and wealth status of a household play a significant role in adoption, implying capital constraints; hence, it can be difficult for resource-poor farmers to adopt the technology. Moreover, the farmers identified cost of the technology and complementary inputs, particularly fertilizer as major constraints to adoption. We conclude that while the DTM technology is suitable and important in helping smallholder maize farmers to continue to produce under a changing climate, more support is needed for them to invest in the technology and overcome adoption constraints. Necessary interventions include improving access to information about climate change and the available adaptation technology, timely access to the technology and complementary inputs, and improving access to credit, particularly for the resource-poor farm households.