1995-2004年河北省生态足迹分析与生态恢复措施

生态足迹从具体的生物物理量角度研究自然资本消费的空间,为核算地区自然资本利用状况提供简明框架,进而可判断区域可持续发展状态。河北省正大力实施可持续发展战略,但在绿色战略问题上还面临一些难题。文章利用生态足迹模型,对河北省1995—2004年的生态足迹进行了时间序列的测度以及可持续发展的定量测算,根据计算结果进行分析提出相应对策。结果表明,10年间河北省的人均生态足迹增长率达47.9%,赤字增长率达58.5%,人类负荷超过其生态容量,生态承载力严重不能满足生态足迹的需求,区域的经济社会发展处于一种不可持续的发展状。从而加深了对河北省可持续发展状况的认识,对生态建设决策提供科学依据,并提出河北省生态恢复的措施。     

长江经济带自然资本可持续性利用分析——基于三维生态足迹模型

自然资本存量和流量的核算是区域可持续发展的核心议题.基于长江经济带沿线11个省市2008—2017年的面板数据,利用三维生态足迹模型对自然资本利用进行定量分析.结果表明:1)长江经济带不同区域10年间生态足迹整体呈现增长趋势,生态承载力呈缓慢下降趋势,生态赤字有所加剧.2)长江经济带足迹深度从2008年的7.686增至...     

辽宁省能源足迹变动的分析

采用生态足迹模型与分解分析模型,定量核算了1990-2006年辽宁省能源足迹,分析了其变动趋势及其影响因素.结果表明,1990-2006年,辽宁省能源足迹呈不断增大趋势,总量由3508万hm~2增加到6491万hm~2,人均值则由0.896hm~2扩大到1.542 hm~2,增加了将近1倍,在区域生态压力中的贡献额为30%.在各类贡献因素中,经济发展对能源足迹的贡献远高于其他因素,其次为能源结构效应、人口规模效应,能源强度效应最低.虽然能源强度不断下降,但其对区域生态压力下降的贡献不足于抵消由能源结构不合理和消费水平的提高造成的生态影响,导致辽宁省能源足迹持续增加.     

基于改进模型的1992—2010年中国省域生态足迹核算

生态足迹可以从生物生产角度定量评估区域社会经济发展的可持续程度。本文运用改进的生态足迹模型对我国各省级行政区1992—2010年的生态足迹进行核算及聚类和相关性分析,以衡量各区域发展的差异及相似程度和分析各省域生态足迹变化的主导因素,并根据核算结果建立了各省区市的生态足迹预测模型,进一步明确各省级行政区的生态足迹变化趋势,以期为区域社会经济发展决策提供参考和借鉴。研究结果显示：近20年来,我国各省域社会经济发展对自然资源的依赖程度及对环境的总体影响存在较大差异。生态足迹的变化可以分为3种类型,即逐渐下降型、明显上升型和基本平稳型。北京和上海的生态足迹变化属于逐渐下降型,分别受对化石燃料用地和耕地需求的减少所主导,其中北京市生态足迹与化石燃料用地的相关系数为0.96,上海市生态足迹与耕地的相关系数为0.703,这2个城市在过去20年中的社会经济发展对自然资源的依赖程度逐渐降低;以内蒙古、山西为代表的化石燃料资源较为丰富的省域生态足迹呈明显上升趋势,这些省域生态足迹的增长受区域化石燃料生产的影响较大,个别省级行政单位生态足迹与化石燃料的相关系数为1;东北三省、东南沿海地区及西部自然资源相对匮乏省区的生态足迹属于基本平稳型。     

基于生态足迹方法的武汉市自然资本分析

生态足迹方法是目前研究自然资本状况的常用方法之一,能够较好地体现区域可持续发展态势.文章运用生态足迹方法对武汉市1995年、2000 年、2005年自然资本消长情况进行了量化研究、对比分析,研究结果表明:武汉市1995年、2000 年、2005年的自然资本需求和供给比例分别达到18.402∶1、20.765∶1、27.276∶1,供需矛盾显著;人均生态赤字分别达到2.4206 hm2·人-1、2.5163 hm2·人-1、2.9009 hm2·人-1,呈逐年上升趋势,成为制约武汉市可持续发展的瓶颈之一.生态用地类型分析显示,耕地、水域、化石能源用地赤字明显,应作为武汉市改善自然资本状况重点关注的对象.文章提出了倡导市民合理消费,同时健全绿色保障制度体系、优化城市生态服务功能等对策和措施,旨在为武汉市实现可持续发展提供依据.     

基于LMDI的中国二氧化硫排放区域变化的因素分解

运用LMDI方法将中国SO2排放变化分解为规模效应、区域经济结构效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产污系数效应和污染治理效应六个因素,并进行了东、中、西和东北四个地区的差异分解分析。结果表明：规模效应是造成各地区SO2排放增加的最重要原因,不同地区不同时段SO2排放的减排因素不同。1999―2003年间,东部、中部地区能源结构和产污系数的减排效应显著,西部、东北地区能源强度和产污系数效应突出;2003―2006年间,东中西部污染治理和产污系数减排效应明显,东北地区能源效率减排贡献大;2006―2009年间,东部、中部的污染治理和能源效率减排贡献突出,西部的产污系数效应和污染治理作用显著,东北的产污系数和能源强度效应突出。建议按照不同地区结合实际情况实行灵活的减排政策。     

基于低碳经济的天津产业结构调整战略

以低碳经济理论为指导,分析了近年来天津产业结构调整成效和存在的不足,认为天津产业结构的“高碳锁定效应”仍较明显。按照发展低碳经济的要求,提出了天津产业结构调整战略：一是加强增量控制,产业增量向第三产业倾斜,逐步“减工业化”;工业增量向高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业倾斜,逐步“降重工业化”;严格限制新增高耗能产业项目,从源...     

基于地区生态足迹差异的生态适度人口研究

以生态足迹理论为基础,对2006年我国生态足迹进行了计算,在此基础上对我国各省区以及东、中、西三大地带生态适度人口进行了研究.结果表明:第一,2006年我国共有25个省份出现生态赤字,最大赤字省份为卜海,达到1.93.各地区人均生态足迹由东向西逐渐递减,生态承载力由东向西逐渐增加,生态赤字由东向西逐渐递减.地区间的可持续发展水平表现为:西部大于中部,中部大于东部.第二,2006年我国有25个省区出现生态人口赤字.全国的生态适度人口为62482.41万人,赤字人口达到66 648.59万人,赤字人口比例达到51.61%,人口对生态环境资源的压力巨大.第三,生态赤字人口在地区间表现为由东向西的递减趋势,东部地区赤字最严重,西部最优.     

能源足迹变化的多因素影响效应研究——以吉林省为例

采用对数平均迪氏指数法构建能源足迹因素分解模型,定量分析1994—2008年吉林省能源足迹变化的主要影响因素及其效应特征。结果表明,1994—2008年,吉林省人均能源足迹从0.228 hm2增至0.524 hm2。在能源足迹增长的抑制因素中,能源强度效应占84.54%,排放因子效应占15.46%;在能源足迹增长的促进因素中,经济产出效应占91.39%,能源结构效应占4.30%,人口规模效应占3.73%,土地固碳效应占0.57%。以经济产出因素为主导的正效应明显大于以能源强度因素为主导的负效应,两者之比为1.73∶1,叠加表现为对能源足迹增长的促进作用,导致其总体呈递增趋势。此外,在正、负效应的双变量格局下,能源足迹呈复合曲面分布。目前减缓吉林省能源足迹增长的重点在于通过技术进步促进能源强度下降,同时需调整能源结构以发挥其应有的抑制作用。     

中部6省生态足迹的测算与比较分析

生态足迹方法是区域可持续发展研究的一种重要方法,在中部6省大区域框架下,运用生态足迹模型对中部6省1989—2011年的生态足迹进行了测算和对比研究。研究结果表明:中部6省1989—2011年的生态承载力较为平稳,其中江西、河南、湖北和湖南4省的生态承载力略有上升,而山西、安徽两省的生态承载力有下降趋势。中部6省的社会经济活动对生态系统的消耗远大于生态系统本身的承载能力,并且这种差距正在不断增大,导致生态赤字不断增大。考察期间,山西省生态赤字的绝对值最小,平均生态赤字为0.49 hm2 cap-1,湖北省生态赤字最大,平均值为1.15 hm2 cap-1,其次为河南和湖南,生态赤字增长最快的是山西省和河南省,增长倍数分别达到了7.38和4.27倍。中部6省6种生态生产性土地的生态足迹均呈现出上升趋势,平均来看,6类生态生产性土地在中部6省总的生态足迹中所占比重由高到低依次为耕地、化石能源地、草地、建筑用地、水域、林地。耕地生态足迹是生态足迹中最重要的组成部分,在总的生态足迹中所占比重最大,中部6省耕地的生态足迹时间序列数据比较平稳,在考察时间内从1989年的0.4241上涨到2011年的0.5851,上升趋势较平稳,但由于耕地生态足迹所占比重大,尽管增长速度缓慢,但对中部6省生态足迹总的影响较大。建筑用地和林地生态足迹虽然增长幅度较大,但由于基数小,因此建筑生态足迹和林地生态足迹对中部6省生态足迹总的影响较小。草地、水域和化石能源用地生态足迹基数大,增长幅度也大,加上耕地生态足迹,共同决定了中部6省人均生态足迹的逐年上升趋势。     

Representation of critical natural capital in China

Traditional means of assessing representativeness of conservation value in protected areas depend on measures of structural biodiversity. The effectiveness of priority conservation areas at representing critical natural capital (CNC) (i.e., an essential and renewable subset of natural capital) remains largely unknown. We analyzed the representativeness of CNC‐conservation priority areas in national nature reserves (i.e., nature reserves under jurisdiction of the central government with large spatial distribution across the provinces) in China with a new biophysical‐based composite indicator approach. With this approach, we integrated the net primary production of vegetation, topography, soil, and climate variables to map and rank terrestrial ecosystems capacities to generate CNC. National nature reserves accounted for 6.7% of CNC‐conservation priority areas across China. Considerable gaps (35.2%) existed between overall (or potential) CNC representativeness nationally and CNC representation in national reserves, and there was significant spatial heterogeneity of representativeness in CNC‐conservation priority areas at the regional and provincial levels. For example, the best and worst representations were, respectively, 13.0% and 1.6% regionally and 28.9% and 0.0% provincially. Policy in China is transitioning toward the goal of an ecologically sustainable civilization. We identified CNC‐conservation priority areas and conservation gaps and thus contribute to the policy goals of optimization of the national nature reserve network and the demarcation of areas critical to improving the representativeness and conservation of highly functioning areas of natural capital. Moreover, our method for assessing representation of CNC can be easily adapted to other large‐scale networks of conservation areas because few data are needed, and our model is relatively simple.     

A modified method of ecological footprint calculation and its application

As economic and ecological support systems become more interdependent, new disciplines are needed to “bridge the gap” between human and nature. “Emergy” created by H.T. Odum is a new method for evaluating natural capital and ecosystem services. The “ecological footprint” created by Wackernagel and Rees has been promoted as a policy and planning tool for sustainability. The aim of this paper is to show a modified form of ecological footprint calculation by combining emergy analysis with conventional ecological footprint form of calculations. Our new method starts from the energy flows of a system in calculating ecological footprint and carrying capacity. Through a study of the energy flows, and using the method of emergy analysis, the energy flows of a system are translated into corresponding biological productive units. To demonstrate the mechanics of this new method, we compared our calculations with that of an original calculation of ecological footprint of a regional case. We select Gansu province in western China, as an example for application of our study. In this case the same conclusions were drawn using both methods: that Gansu province runs an ecological deficit.     

An integrated indicator on regional ecological civilization construction in China

China has come up with ecological civilization as one of major goals to improve its ecological sustainability during development in future. Under this broad framework, social, economic and natural ecosystems are expected to develop in harmony. However, there is lack of evaluation mechanism for this newly proposed strategy. Therefore, in this article, ecosystem services, Ecological Footprint and gross domestic product per capita were selected in order to reflect the resource endowment, human occupation on natural capital, and the economic growth. Thus, an integrated indicator was constructed from the three indexes based on the linear correlation among them, and we provided comprehensive evaluation on ecological civilization construction in the provinces and municipalities in China in 2010. When it comes to the indicator of ecological civilization construction, Hainan province has the greatest value which is 0.5091 and Beijing municipality has the smallest value which is 0.0377. At last, the article analyzed the ecological pressure and efficiency in ecological civilization construction in China. The results contribute to scientific and objective evaluation of regional ecological civilization construction in order to properly make decisions and take actions.     

Hartwick's rule and maximin paths when the exhaustible resource has an amenity value

This paper studies the maximin paths of the canonical Dasgupta–Heal–Solow model when the stock of natural capital is a direct argument of well-being, besides consumption. Hartwick's rule then appears as an efficient tool to characterize solutions in a variety of settings. We start with the case without technical progress. We obtain an explicit solution of the maximin problem in the case where production and utility are Cobb–Douglas. When the utility function is CES with a low elasticity of substitution between consumption and natural capital, we show that it is optimal to preserve forever a critical level of natural capital, determined endogeneously. We then study how technical progress affects the optimal maximin paths, in the Cobb–Douglas utility case. On the long run path of the economy capital, production and consumption grow at a common constant rate, while the resource stock decreases at a constant rate and is therefore completely depleted in the very long run. A higher amenity value of the resource stock leads to faster economic growth, but to a lower long run rate of depletion. We then develop a complete analysis of the dynamics of the maximin problem when the sole source of well-being is consumption, and provide a numerical resolution of the model with resource amenity. The economy consumes, produces and invests less in the short run if the resource has an amenity value than if it does not, whereas it is the contrary in the medium and long runs. However, and without surprise, the resource stock remains for ever higher with resource amenity than without.     

Rural industrial structure and landscape diversity: Correlation research

Landscape diversity reflects the integrated natural characteristics of rural areas, to some extent, while industrial structure shows the regional social economic characteristics. Therefore, correlation research on rural industrial structure and landscape diversity may couple the natural environment and social economy, which is of great importance to rural sustainable development. In this paper, we carried through this research from two aspects. First, we made a qualitative analysis of the hierarchical correlation beween rural industrial structure and landscape diversity, and the correlation during different historical periods was also summarized. Second, taking Yongsheng County, Yunnan Province, China as a case study, we applied the method of hierarchical clustering to make a quantitative analysis of the clustering correlation between rural industrial structure and landscape diversity. The results show that there are correlations between rural industrial structure and landscape diversity. That is, different industrial structures may result in similar landscape diversity in developed rural areas; while in developing rural areas industrial structure cannot exclusively determine landscape diversity, which is also influenced by natural factors, such as landform, physiognomy and climate.     

中国生态资产估价研究进展

随着对全球变化、生态破坏、环境污染等问题的出现,生态资产研究已成为政府、科研院所等的热点研究领域。本文将生态资产研究按行政区、流域与单一生态系统分3类进行分析,发现在流域尺度上的生态资产估算,以及生态资产的驱动机制研究较为薄弱;同时,文章对生态资产估算技术的适用范围、特点与缺点进行分析。在此基础上,探讨了目前我国生态资产研究存在的难点与不足,并对中国生态资产估算做了一些前展性的讨论。     

城市生态系统服务功能的价值结构分析

本文从城市生态系统价值体系出发,探讨城市自然资本,经济资本和社会资本综合测算的理论与方法,结果表明：示范区的自然总资本以年均４％的速度递减,其真实总资本年均增长率为４．５％而不是国内生产总值的１２．６％,自然资本的增减应成为衡量一个城市或区域是否实现可持续发展的核心指标。城市生态系统中自然资本由持续递减变为递增,是实现人类共同追求的可持续发展目标必由之路。     

Ecological footprint and biological capacity time series assessment for a forest region in northeastern China

Anthropogenic disturbances have caused major landscape changes in the forests of northeastern China during the past 50 years. In particular, continuous over-deforestation has greatly decreased the region's forest quality. Ecological footprint analysis generates aggregated information about a population's demand on nature and the population regional biological capacity. To show the forest change and the population's ecological demand on the study area, this paper presents an ecological footprint time series for the Songling Forestry Bureau in northeastern China from 1965 to 2000. The paper shows conventional ecological footprint time series and area demand time series – under global, Chinese and local yearly yields – to study the biological productivity of Songling. In this study, biological capacity was calculated based on a conventional approach. The results demonstrate that the ecological footprint has increased slightly and continuously during the 35-year timespan, while the biological capacity has decreased dramatically. These effects have been caused mainly by the depletion of forest resources. The results also yield much information about natural changes and socioeconomic dynamics, as well as the driving factors for these changes, of which the most important is forest management policy.     

Linking the concept of ecological footprint and valuation of ecosystem services: A case study of economic growth and natural carrying capacity

Human activities have become so extensive that all ecosystems on the planet have been altered to some extent. The fate of humankind will be determined by how sustainable ecosystems and the renewable resources in them are managed. The implication of this is obvious: humanity must live within nature's carrying capacity. In recent years, humans have recognised that growth of the economy depends on natural capital, and it is important that we now recognise that we are part of an international ecological economics community, so as to better integrate the economy and ecology. However, there are few successful examples of this. The aim of this paper is to show a method for integrated analysis between economic growth and natural carrying capacity by linking the concepts of ecological footprint and valuation of ecosystem services. When applied to China for the period 1987–2003, the empirical evidence suggests that the size of the Chinese economy surpassed the carrying capacity in 1992. Perhaps, we should abandon our high-growth predilection and initiate a transition to a steady-state economy.