A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

A new general mechanistic river model for radionuclides from single pulse fallouts which can be run by readily accessible driving variables

This paper presents a new general, process-based river model for substances such as radionuclides from single pulse fallouts. The new model has been critically tested using data from 13 European rivers contaminated by radiocesium from the Chernobyl accident. This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases; and also concentrations in sediments and fish, but the latter aspects are not discussed in this paper) at defined river sites. The model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the upstream catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow ( approximately wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment. The catchment area sub-model is based on a previous catchment model, which has been tested with very good results for radiocesium, radiostrontium and Ca-concentrations (from liming operations). The new river model is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, continentality, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, soil type (percentages or organic and sandy soils), fallout and month of fallout. Modelled values have been compared to independent empirical data from 10 rivers sites (91 data on radiocesium in water) covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 4000 to 180 000 km(2), precipitation from 500 to 960 mm/yr and fallout from 1700 to 660 000 Bq/m(2)). The new model predicts very well--when modelled values are compared to empirical data, the slope is perfect (1.0) and the r(2)-value is 0.90. This is good giving the fact that there are also uncertainties in the empirical data, which set a limit to the achieved predictive power, as expressed by the r(2)-value.     

137Cs budget during the period of 1960s in a small drainage basin on the Loess Plateau of China

A sediment profile with a thickness of 28.12 m in a failed reservoir in a small catchment of the Yuntaishan Gully in the Loess Plateau of China consisted of 44 flood couplets deposited during the period from 1960 to 1970 with total volume of 2.36 x 10(6)m(3). Specific sediment yields for a flood event varied from 300 t km(-2) to 14,400 t km(-2) and annual sediment yields varied from 2500 t km(-2) in 1966 to 40,000 t km(-2) in 1964 with a mean value of 12,700 t km(-2)a(-1) for the period. Average annual (137)Cs concentrations of the sediments increased from 0.92 Bq kg(-1) in 1960 to 4.82 Bq kg(-1) in 1963, then decreased to 1.53 Bq kg(-1) in 1970. The total (137)Cs activity in the reservoir sediments was 9.22 x 10(9) Bq, which accounted for 31.9% of the total (137)Cs fallout precipitation of 2.89 x 10(10) Bq within the catchment during the period. The proportion of the (137)Cs loss from the catchment to the (137)Cs fallout precipitation within the catchment in a year varied between 8.01% and 66.8%, and it was 20.9% for the peak (137)Cs deposition year of 1963 and 52.0% in 1964. By analysis of the (137)Cs budget in the catchment for the (137)Cs peak precipitation period from 1962 to 1964, the (137)Cs surface enrichment coefficient Gamma should be much less than 0.23. And for calculation of soil losses on the cultivated land in the inter-gully area by using the Mass Balance Model II, the value of Gamma should be 0.05-0.1.     

A blind test of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium for Lake Uruskul, Russia, contaminated by fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model-test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The tested model is a new lake model for radiocesium to be used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). This model has previously been validated against independent data from many lakes covering a wide domain of lake characteristics and been demonstrated to yield excellent predictive power (see H?kanson, Modelling Radiocesium in Lakes and Coastal Areas. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2000, 215 pp). However, the model has not been tested before for cases other than those related to the Chernobyl fallout in 1986, nor for lakes from this part of the world (Southern Urals) and nor for situations with such heavy fallout as this. The aims of this work were: (1) to carry out a blind test of the model for the case of continental Lake Uruskul, heavily contaminated with 90Sr and 137Cs as a result of the Kyshtym radiation accident (29 September 1957) in the Southern Urals, Russia, and (2) if these tests gave satisfactory results to reconstruct the radiocesium dynamics for fish, water and sediments in the lake. Can the model provide meaningful predictions in a situation such as this? The answer is yes, although there are reservations due to the scarcity of reliable empirical data. From the modelling calculations, it may be noted that the maximum levels of 137Cs in fish (here 400 g ww goldfish), water and sediments were about 100,000 Bq/kg ww, 600 Bq/l and 30,000 Bq/kg dw, respectively. The values in fish are comparable to or higher than the levels in fish in the cooling pond of the Chernobyl NPP. The model also predicts an interesting seasonal pattern in 137Cs levels in sediments. There is also a characteristic "three phase" development for the 137Cs levels in fish: first an initial stage when the 137Cs concentrations in fish approach a maximum value, then a phase with relatively short ecological half-lives followed by a final phase with long ecological half-lives more or less corresponding to the physical decay of radiocesium.     

Land use influence on 137Cs levels in perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and roach (Rutilus rutilus L.)

The environmental influence on Chernobyl-derived 137Cs levels in perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and roach (Rutilus rutilus L.) was revealed using partial least-squares regression (PLS). The 53 environmental predictors used describe land use in catchment areas, various catchment area and lake characteristics, lake water chemistry, and fish stock composition. The study showed a profound effect of land use on the 137Cs levels in fish. Radiocaesium deposited on arable land was retained in the soil to a greater extent than was 137Cs deposited on wetlands, which more easily leached out to the lake ecosystems. The 137Cs deposition close to the lakes had a more pronounced effect on 137Cs levels in the fish than did more distant deposition. The radiocaesium bioavailability is mainly governed by lake water cation content, as hardwater lakes had significantly lower 137Cs content in fish. Resuspension of 137Cs contaminated sediments only had a limited influence on the observed levels in fish.     

137Cs in freshwater fish in Finland since 1986--a statistical analysis with multivariate linear regression models

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 significantly elevated the 137Cs levels of fish in Finnish lakes. About 6200 fish samples from 390 lakes comprising 20 species have been analysed for 137Cs since 1986. The sizes of the lakes varied from a few hectares to about 1000 km2. Activity concentrations of 137Cs in fish still varied widely in 2003, from 16 to 6400 Bq/kg fresh weight. This paper presents the results of statistical analyses with multivariate linear regression models carried out on the empirical data collected since 1986. The statistical analysis resulted in separate models for two time periods describing temporal changes of 137Cs in fish. The explanatory variables were fish species with various feeding habits, the size class of the lake, municipal division, drainage area, time since the deposition and deposition level of the municipality. The calculated values for 137Cs in fish did not differ statistically significantly from the observed values in the validation data. The explanatory variables explained 58% (the first time period) and 72% (the second time period) of the total variability of 137Cs in fish.     

137Cs and (239+240)Pu levels in the Asia-Pacific regional seas

137Cs and (239+240)Pu data in seawater, sediment and biota from the regional seas of Asia-Pacific extending from 50 degrees N to 60 degrees S latitude and 60 degrees E to 180 degrees E longitude based on the Asia-Pacific Marine Radioactivity Database (ASPAMARD) are presented and discussed. 137Cs levels in surface seawater have been declining to its present median value of about 3 Bq/m3 due mainly to radioactive decay, transport processes, and the absence of new significant inputs. (239+240)Pu levels in surface seawater are much lower, with a median of about 6 mBq/m3. (239+240)Pu appears to be partly scavenged by particles and is therefore more readily transported down the water column. As with seawater, (239+240)Pu concentrations are lower than 137Cs in surface sediment. The median 137Cs concentration in surface sediment is 1.4 Bq/kg dry, while that of (239+240)Pu is only 0.2 Bq/kg dry. The vertical profiles of both 137Cs and (239+240)Pu in the sediment column of coastal areas are different from deep seas which can be attributed to the higher sedimentation rates and additional contribution of run-offs from terrestrial catchment areas in the coastal zone. Comparable data for biota are far less extensive than those for seawater and sediment. The median 137Cs concentration in fish (0.2 Bq/kg wet) is higher than in crustaceans (0.1 Bq/kg wet) or mollusks (0.1 Bq/kg wet). Benchmark values (as of 2001) for 137Cs and (239+240)Pu concentrations in seawater, sediment and biota are established to serve as reference values against which the impact of future anthropogenic inputs can be assessed. ASPAMARD represents one of the most comprehensive compilations of available data on 137Cs and (239+240)Pu in particular, and other anthropogenic as well as natural radionuclides in seawater, sediment and biota from the Asia-Pacific regional seas.     

Patterns and inventories of radioactive contamination of island sites of the Yenisey River, Russia

The distribution of radioactive contamination at three island sites downstream from the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine (KMCC) was studied with the objectives of mapping contamination levels, interpreting radionuclide distributions through consideration of alluvial processes and determining radionuclide inventories. Contamination was measured using in situ gamma spectrometry and landforms characterised using topographic surveying methods. Maximum (137)Cs contamination densities (700 kBq m(-2)) were found on low- and middle-level floodplains and low-lying interconnecting areas of Beriozovy Island (16 km from the KMCC). On Mikhin Island (180 km from the KMCC) maximum total (60)Co, (152)Eu and (154)Eu activity concentrations (30-40 kBq m(-2)) occur in low-lying areas inundated during flooding. Maximum (137)Cs and total (60)Co, (152)Eu and (154)Eu contamination densities on Cheriomukhov Island (250 km from the KMCC) were 390 and 50 kBq m(-2), respectively. Estimated (137)Cs inventories were 145, 148 and 16GBq for Beriozovy, Mikhin and Cheriomukhov Islands, respectively.     

Numerical simulation of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations by an ocean general circulation model

We simulated the spatial distributions and the temporal variations of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu concentrations in the ocean by using the ocean general circulation model which was developed by National Center of Atmospheric Research. These nuclides are introduced into seawaters from global fallout due to atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. The distribution of radioactive deposition on the world ocean is estimated from global precipitation data and observed values of annual deposition of radionuclides at the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan and several observed points in New Zealand. Radionuclides from global fallout have been transported by advection, diffusion and scavenging, and this concentration reduces by radioactive decay in the ocean. We verified the results of the model calculations by comparing simulated values of 137Cs and (239,240)Pu in seawater with the observed values included in the Historical Artificial Radionuclides in the HAM database, which has been constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute. The vertical distributions of the calculated 137Cs concentrations were in good agreement and are in good agreement with the observed profiles in the 1960s up to 250 m, in the 1970s up to 500 m, in the 1980s up to 750 m and in the 1990s up to 750 m. However, the calculated 137Cs concentrations were underestimated compared with the observed 137Cs at the deeper layer. This may suggest other transport processes of 137Cs to deep waters. The horizontal distributions of 137Cs concentrations in surface water could be simulated. A numerical tracer release experiment was performed to explain the horizontal distribution pattern. A maximum (239,240)Pu concentration layer occurs at an intermediate depth for both observed and calculated values, which is formed by particle scavenging. The horizontal distributions of the calculated (239,240)Pu concentrations in surface water could be simulated by considering the scavenging effect.     

Problems in predicting <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs levels in lake waters of eastern Fennoscandia

With regard to data on two-year exposure of Chernobyl-derived ¹³⁷Cs in lakes with average depths ranging from 2 to 15 m, contamination of lake waters has been estimated using a sorption-diffusion model with ¹³⁷Cs distribution and diffusion coefficients of 4000 l/kg and 1.0 × 10⁻⁷ cm², respectively.     

137Cs and 90Sr transfer to milk in Austrian alpine agriculture

The alpine regions of Austria were among the most contaminated territories outside of the former USSR after the Chernobyl accident. In the investigated province of Salzburg the median (137)Cs surface deposition was 31.4 kBq m(-2) with maximum values exceeding 90 kBq m(-2) (May 1986). To quantify the transfer of (137)Cs and (90)Sr from vegetation to milk in these seminatural conditions nine seasonally grazed alps were identified and vegetation and milk sampled during summer 2002 and summer 2003. Mean+/-SD milk transfer coefficients (fm) for (137)Cs and (90)Sr were 0.0071+/-0.0009 d l(-1), and 0.0011+/-0.0004 d l(-1), respectively; which for (137)Cs is markedly higher than those fm values found in intensive agricultural systems. Transfer kinetics for (137)Cs into cow milk were approximated using a 2-compartment model with a short and a long-term component. Fitting the model to empirical data results in reliable estimates of the time constant of the short-term component, biological half-life 1.06+/-0.28 d, whereas the estimates of the long-term component are subject to high uncertainties.     

Distribution of radionuclides among the main components of Lake Chervyanoe in the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace

Radioecological conditions have been estimated in Lake Chervyanoe located on the central axis of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT) about 100–110 km northeast of the Mayak Production Association. Data on the ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs contents in the main components of the lake, the distribution of these radionuclides over the profile of bottom sediments, and their amounts in the lake are presented. The experimental data have been used to construct mathematical models for estimating changes in the radionuclide concentrations and amounts in the water and bottom sediments of the lake over a long period after the nuclear accident, as well as the tritium content of the lake water in different periods of time.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

Post-depositional redistribution and gradual accumulation of 137Cs in a riparian wetland ecosystem in Sweden

After the Chernobyl accident, high activity concentrations of (137)Cs (>1 MBq m(-2)) were detected in a riparian swamp in the central-eastern part of Sweden. The objective of this study was to clarify the redistribution processes behind the accumulation of (137)Cs in the wetland. A mass balance budget of (137)Cs was calculated based on soil and sediment samples and reports in the literature. Results showed that accumulation occurred over several years. Of all the (137)Cs activity discharged between 1986 and 2002 from the upstream lake, 29% was estimated to be retained in the wetland. In 2003, measurements showed that 17 kBq m(-2) sedimented on the stream banks of the wetland. Continuing overbank sedimentation by spring flooding prolongs the time that the wetland will contain high activity concentrations of (137)Cs. Consequently, organisms living in wetlands serving as sinks for (137)Cs may become exposed over long time periods to high activity concentrations.     

基于BP神经网络的鄱阳湖水位模拟

考虑到鄱阳湖水位受流域五河与长江来水等多因素的共同作用而表现出高度非线性响应,采用典型的三层BPNN神经网络模型来模拟鄱阳湖水位与其主控因子之间的响应关系。分别将湖口、星子、都昌、棠荫和康山水位作为目标变量进行BPNN模型构建和适用性评估。结果显示：综合考虑流域五河及长江来水（汉口或九江）的BPNN水位模型,空间站点水位模拟精度（R2和Ens）可达090以上,各站点的均方根误差（RMSE）变化范围约050～10 m,若忽略长江来水的影响作用,仅将流域五河来水作为湖泊水位的主控影响因子,模型训练期与测试期的纳希效率系数（Ens）和确定性系数（R2）显著降低,且低于050,均方根误差（RMSE）也明显增大（124～288 m）,意味着综合考虑流域五河与长江来水是获取结构合理、精度保证的鄱阳湖水位模型的重要前提。同时建议针对鄱阳湖湖盆变化对水位的影响,尽可能选择一致性较好的长序列数据集来训练和测试BPNN模型。所构建的BPNN神经网络模型可进一步结合流域水文模型,用来预测气候变化与人类活动下流域径流变化对湖泊水位的潜在影响,也可作为一种有效的模型工具来回答当前鄱阳湖一些备受关注的热点问题,如定量区分流域五河与长江来水对湖泊洪枯水位的贡献分量,为湖泊洪涝灾害的防治和对策制定提供科学依据     

Modelling the long-term dynamics of radiocaesium in closed lakes

During the years after the Chernobyl accident the radioceasium activity concentration in most contaminated aquatic ecosystems decreased markedly. Lakes with no permanent inflows and outflows (closed lakes), however, still present a radioecological problem which is expected to continue for some time. In this paper, a mechanistic model for the long-term prediction of radiocaesium behaviour in closed lakes is developed. The model of Prokhorov (Radiokhimiya (Radiochemistry) 11 (1969) 317) was modified to describe the effects of bottom sediment bioturbation, surface runoff from the catchment and suspended solids formation and sedimentation. The model input parameters are the effective diffusion coefficient in bottom sediments, depth of the completely mixed layer, the distribution coefficient in the sediment-water system, the runoff coefficient, sedimentation rate, and deposition density. Values of all these parameters can be independently estimated or measured in a short-term experiment. Given negligible runoff and sedimentation, the dynamics of radiocaesium in lake water is described by a simple equation with only one unknown parameter. This allows us to make long-term predictions on the basis of a series of measurements carried out during the relatively short period. The model was tested against 137Cs activity concentrations measured between 1993 and 1999 in Svyatoe lake in the Bryansk region of Russia. Calculated and measured activity concentrations are in good agreement.     

近十年鄱阳湖区极端干旱事件频发现象成因初析

近10 a来鄱阳湖区极端干旱事件频发,引起国内外媒体舆论的广泛关注。针对这一情况,运用流域降水、地表蒸散和出湖径流等数据,从流域水量收支平衡的角度,较为系统地分析了导致鄱阳湖区极端干旱事件频发的原因。结果表明,近10 a来鄱阳湖水文干旱起始日期提前,枯水期拉长。虽然干旱持续时间的长短呈现2~3 a的波动,但在总体上呈现逐渐加长的趋势。从流域水分收支的角度来看,近10 a来以水分亏缺为主,流域降水亏缺是基本的致旱因素,流域蒸散量增加则起到一定的增强作用,而出湖径流所起的作用比较复杂,在多数情况下其致旱的影响程度弱于流域降水作用。长江顶托作用强弱变化可以调节流域的水分收支平衡,强化或者减轻湖泊的干旱程度。2003、2004、2007、2008和2009年发生的极端干旱事件主要由流域水分收入项的大幅度减少所造成的,而长江水情变化在多数情况下加剧了流域水分收支的不平衡。这些研究结果明晰了鄱阳湖流域气象干旱与湖泊水文干旱之间的关系以及长江水情变化所扮演的重要角色,为应对未来的干旱变化和制定合理的抗旱防旱对策与措施提供了科学的依据     

鄱阳湖水流运动与污染物迁移路径的粒子示踪研究

湖泊水流运动和污染物的迁移路径对湖泊水质起着关键作用。采用水动力和粒子示踪耦合模型,并结合野外粒子示踪实验来调查鄱阳湖洪水季节空间水流运动和污染物迁移路径。模拟结果显示,流域五河点源入湖污染物和湖区空间面源分布污染物均会沿着不同方向迅速进入湖泊主河道,在快速水流推动下逐渐向北部湖区迁移,但部分污染物因东北部湖湾区存在顺时针方向环流而发生长时间滞留和富集。野外粒子示踪实验同样表明,东北部湖湾区污染物迁移路径随着该湖区水流运动表现得复杂多变,除了可以明显观察到顺时针方向的污染物运动,还可以发现污染物向湖岸边界和湖汊迁移,最终滞留在东北部湖湾区,而康山湖区污染物在快速水流推动下主要沿主河道向西北主湖区迁移,未发现污染物进入东北部湖湾区的迹象。鄱阳湖洪水季节水流运动和污染物迁移路径具有枯水期水流-污染物传输特性。模拟得出鄱阳湖洪水期的平均换水周期约89 d,表明其可能需要近3个月时间才能彻底完成一次换水。研究成果可为大型通江湖泊"江湖关系变化"研究提供参考,对保护"一湖清水"、保障长江中下游水环境安全具有重要现实意义。     

Assessment of state-of-the-art models for predicting the remobilisation of radionuclides following the flooding of heavily contaminated areas: the case of Pripyat River floodplain

The performances of models are assessed to predict the wash-off of radionuclides from contaminated flooded areas. This process should be accounted for in the proper management of the aftermath of a nuclear accident. The contamination of the Pripyat River water following the inundation of a floodplain heavily contaminated by (90)Sr and (137)Cs of Chernobyl origin is used as the basis for modelling. The available experimental evidence demonstrated that remobilisation of radiostrontium is an important process implying a significant secondary radioactive load of water flowing over the contaminated floodplain. On the contrary, there is no empirical evidence of a similar behaviour for radiocaesium. In general, state-of-the-art models properly predicted the remobilisation of strontium, whereas they significantly overestimated radiocaesium concentrations in water. The necessary model improvements for a more accurate prediction of radiocaesium contamination levels include a reassessment of the values of the model parameters controlling the remobilisation process.     

湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟研究进展综述

湖泊流域水文水动力联合模拟对综合管理湖泊流域水资源具有重要的理论和实践意义。通过水文水动力联合模拟研究进展的综述,可深入了解湖泊流域联合模型发展和演变过程,把握国际研究主流趋势和前沿手段。传统湖泊流域联合模拟方法主要通过流域水文模型结合湖泊水量平衡模型来计算湖泊流域水均衡组分,但水量平衡方法仅是对湖泊过程的一般性描述,难以切实反映水位空间差异显著的湖泊系统有着显著的水动力特性。基于流域水文模型与湖泊水动力模型的联合系统克服了大尺度湖泊流域系统难以切实描述和完整模拟的难点,在湖泊流域系统水资源管理与调控中发挥了重要作用。系统概述了国内外不同尺度湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟研究,归纳总结了基于外部耦合、内部耦合与全耦合技术的联合模型的优势和不足。从学科发展趋势和应用需求的角度出发,概述了湖泊流域系统联合模拟的难点和今后发展趋势