Seismic damage to pipelines in the framework of Na-Tech risk assessment

The structural integrity of pipelines undergone seismic waves is crucial for industrial installation and for the distributed transportation networks of gaseous and liquid fluids. However, it is nowadays proved that the definition of seismic vulnerability based on purely, structural-derived limit states or on return-to-service or even on the purely economic repair rate indications, is not sufficient for the holistic analysis of risks. On the other hand, detailed numerical studies based on full analyses (including fluid/soil/structure interaction) are too expensive for the aims of risk assessment and simplified methodologies are still needed.In this paper, a large database of earthquake-induced damage for steel and non-steel pipelines is presented. Each case was analyzed and collected from post-earthquake reconnaissance, seismic engineering reports and technical papers. The database may be adopted for the definition of specific vulnerability function (fragility curves), which are commonly implemented in multi-hazard analyses, and more in general for the assessment of Na-Tech risks (Natural events triggering Technological disasters).     

Seismic risk assessment of storage tanks in Turkish industrial facilities

In 1999, two earthquakes in northwest Turkey caused heavy damage to a large number of industrial facilities. This region is the most industrialized in the country, and heavy damage has a significant economic influence. Industrial storage tanks, ruptured by earthquakes, exascerbate damage through the spread of fire. Storage tanks are uniquely structured, tall cylindrical vessels, some supported by relatively short reinforced concrete columns. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the earthquake performance of Turkish industrial facilities, especially storage tanks in terms of earthquake resistance. Modeling a typical storage tank of an industrial facility helps to understand the structure’s seismic response. A model tank structure was modelled as a solid with lumped mass and spring systems. Performance estimation was done with 40 different earthquake data through nonlinear time history analyses. After the time history analyses, fragility analyses produced probabilistic seismic assessment for the tank model. For the model structure, analysis results were evaluated and compared. In the study, vulnerability of storage tanks in Turkey was determined and the probabilistic risk was defined with the results of the analysis.     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Seismic vulnerability of gas and liquid buried pipelines

Lifelines play a crucial and essential role in human life and in economic development. The resilience of those systems under extreme events as earthquakes is a primary requirement, especially when large amount of toxic and flammable material are transported.In this work, the seismic vulnerability of buried gas and liquid pipelines has been analyzed, starting from a large number of damage data to pipelines collected from post-earthquake reconnaissance reports.Seismic fragility formulations and threshold values for the earthquake intensity with respect to the release of content from different types of pipelines have been derived. The main outcome of the work is therefore a novel seismic assessment tool which is able to cover the needs of industrial risk assessment procedures and land use planning requirements.     

工业设施受恐怖袭击风险评价方法研究进展

鉴于全球范围恐怖活动日益猖獗的形势,无论从学术研究还是维护社会安全稳定的角度,恐怖袭击都应作为一个重要的风险因素加以深入研究.恐怖袭击事故是由恐怖分子策划和实施的,其风险机理不同于系统失效或人为失误造成的事故机理.科学地分析、预测和预防恐怖袭击的风险成为当前安全科学领域面临的新课题.本文对国内外相关研究的进展做了较详细的评述,提出了对重要工业设施和公共设施在加强传统安全管理的同时要加强脆弱性评价和保安管理体系建设等建议.     

Mapping human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents

Chemical accidents in the vicinity of densely populated areas can cause colossal damage. Close proximity of chemical facilities to the general public has been identified as a major issue for increased human exposure in 43% of the accidents investigated by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB). This emphasises the need for incorporating societal factors in risk assessment to plan actions in order to minimise exposure during accidents. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for the assessment of human vulnerability and risk due to chemical accidents. A GIS based methodology is proposed which uses computer aided hazard modelling tools and technical guidelines to model accidents and assesses population vulnerability. The population vulnerability is determined based on a set of societal indicators derived from relevant research work, expert opinions and suggestions by World Bank. Risk is defined as the probable magnitude of harm to humans and dependent on both the degrees of hazard and vulnerability. A case study is carried out by applying the methodology to Meghnaghat Industrial Area in Bangladesh. Accident scenarios are built and hazard modelling software ALOHA is used to spatially display accident footprints. Vulnerability of population is assessed using data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and field survey. The hazard footprints and vulnerability map are superimposed using mapping software ArcGIS to generate a composite risk map. The risk map is used to assess existing land use and recommendations are made for future land use planning. The composite risk map is expected to be of help for effective community response, emergency response planning and allocation of medical and support services during emergencies.     

基础设施地震易损性的评估研究综述

为了加强基础设施系统地震易损性的研究,最大限度减少地震灾害带来的损失,本文通过对基础设施地震易损性研究文献的回顾,分析总结了基础设施地震易损性的相关概念、研究框架与定量评估方法,研究了基础设施地震易损性主要评估方法的适用范围和优缺点。研究结果表明,现有研究集中于对基础设施系统中部分子系统的评估,且地域性强,许多模型和方法无法扩展到其他地区。大部分对基础设施地震易损性的研究还停留在定性层面,易受主观因素影响,需要加强量化和规范化分析。     

城市地震灾害风险区划的研究

为了研究城市面临的地震灾害风险,笔者在充分考虑地震灾害风险在空间上分布不均的基础上,提出城市地震灾害风险区划网格的划分原则,分析并总结与地震灾害风险评价相关的工程易损性分析方法,并在上述研究的基础上,探讨基于人员死亡数量和经济损失为标度的地震灾害风险计算方法,为城市抗震防灾规划编制提供依据。以厦门市地震灾害风险区划分为例进行了风险区划网格划分,并计算了不同网格的地震灾害风险,找出了厦门市地震风险严重的区域,为今后有针对性地进行抗震防灾工作提供有益的借鉴。     

大数据发展的信息安全风险防御探析

大数据的发展及广泛应用加大了信息化系统及数据的脆弱性,信息安全风险向系统化、复杂化方向发展。在搜集、整理国内外相关研究成果基础上,系统辨识数据采集、数据传输、数据存储、数据分析4个大数据核心环节的信息安全风险,围绕“风险辨识、脆弱性降低、风险沟通、强化风险管理”的风险治理流程,以防范与化解信息安全风险为目标,提出大数据发展的信息安全防御策略。研究结果表明:大数据全生命周期是信息安全风险辨识的起点,强化大数据发展的信息安全风险防御,需要在风险辨识基础上,积极推进预防准备、风险沟通、信息安全事件处置及恢复总结。     

Perceptions of industrial risk and emergency management procedures in Hazmat Logistics: A qualitative mental model approach

In the industrial risk field, Hazmat Logistics research is growing as a sector of special relevance. The road transport of these substances is an activity with an elevated risk, involving drivers, logistics systems, industries, infrastructures, urban areas, etc.In the study of risk and safety of the logistics of hazardous materials there is a special relevance for new and complex elements, as human factors and mental models involved in managing critical incidents ‘‘on the road”. Moreover, the ‘‘emergency management training” of human resources in this field is often limited, and this represents another factor of vulnerability.In collaboration with SBG (one of the leading European Hazmat Logistics corporations), we developed a quali-quantitative study on cognitive representations and semantic perceptions of risk and emergency management procedures in tanker drivers. The main innovation of the study, with the direct involvement of the stakeholder and 47 drivers, is represented by the construction and use of ‘‘ad hoc” psychometrical and knowledge-elicitation, allowing a deeper analysis of workers’ mental models.The application of PCP tools of adapted RepGrid and Landfield Laddering Procedures allows to analyze some of the main qualitative structures of mental models held by drivers about Hazmat Logistics. Through the analysis of these mental models, it could become possible to set up efficient preventive actions for this type of industrial risk. We are going to discuss the consequences of these findings and methodological approaches for the industrial risk-and-safety field.     

Integrating major accidents hazard into occupational risk assessment: An index approach

Major Accident Hazard (MAH) and Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) are two separated topics in both industrial practice and legislation; recently, interest is increasing toward an integrated risk assessment mainly forced by the tendency to a more efficient safety management system. The present study proposes a semi-quantitative approach to integrate MAH in OSH risk assessment. The two risk types are characterized by opposite features: the OSH analysis is usually task-based and focused on job profiles, while the MAH analysis is space-based and focused on plant characteristics. The basic idea of the proposed approach is to merge spatial information and job profile features in order to improve OSH assessment; thus, a risk index derived by the recent standard ISO 12100 (2010) has been adapted. In detail, the proposed index combines exposure times of each worker at each plant unit – derived from the OSH analysis – with damage areas derived from MAH analysis allowing a quantitative assessment of the MAH risk level for each individual job profile. The model has been tested in a large petrochemical plant; several hypotheses have been developed in order to validate the model. Results have showed the potentiality of the proposed approach in providing a common and coherent representation of both MAH and OSH risks, according to job profiles and plant units.     

基于AHP-熵权法的石化企业承灾体脆弱性评估

针对石化企业化工事故引发的区域脆弱性研究不足现状,构建脆弱性评估模式。该模式以石化企业承灾体常见事故类型分析为基础构建脆弱性评估指标体系,集成层次分析法和熵权法确定权重并引入多变量Kendall协和系数检验一致性,在此基础上运用模糊综合评价法评估其脆弱性等级。将该模式应用于某石化企业,得到企业内不同区域的脆弱性等级分布。案例应用表明:AHP-熵权法应用于确定指标权重能更好的综合主客观因素的影响,评估结果可指导企业采取事故控制和灾害预防措施,更好的控制区域风险。     

生态风险与生态安全的评价方法及前景

各种生态环境问题的严重后果引起了人们对环境与生态的重视,并催生了生态风险与生态安全评价.为了更好地进行这两方面的评价,首先分别综述生态风险和生态安全评价的发展进程,突出主要研究方法的介绍,由此总结生态风险评价与生态安全评价的关系以及生态风险与生态安全评价的发展趋势.生态风险评价主要有健康危险度法、环评指数法、景观生态法、空间统计或地统计法、相对风险模型等方法;生态安全评价主要有综合指数法、景观生态法、生态承载力和生态足迹方法、突变级数等方法.生态风险与生态安全评价是从相反的角度研究生态系统的状况和潜在威胁,生态风险评价偏重细节分析,生态安全评价偏重整体分析.空间和时间尺度的扩大、评价方法的改进、评价标准的制定和评价的可信性检验都是生态风险评价与生态安全评价的发展趋势.     

An evaluation of risk assessment framework for industrial accidents in India

Due to rapid industrialization, with high population density and constraints of land, it is expected that level of risks arising from the hazardous industries will increase in India in the coming decades. However, 30 years after the Bhopal accident (1984), except a few discrete regulations, there is as yet no integrated system for assessing and managing risks arising out of these hazardous industries in India. The gravity of aspects related to the management of industrial risk still remains crucially important. In particular, there is no standard guideline on risk analysis methodology, acceptability or tolerability criteria, nor is there an accident database or a risk reduction strategy for the areas where risk levels are already high. On top of this, there are technical and legislative gaps in the institutional framework to implement any of the above mentioned issues. With the backdrop of the Bhopal gas tragedy, the objective of this paper is therefore to evaluate the effectiveness of a comprehensive risk assessment framework for the emerging economy of India, in order to control and/or to reduce the risk level that exists. In this context, regulations and policies pertaining to industrial risk assessment were reviewed.     

工业控制系统功能安全与信息安全一体化防护措施研究

现代工业控制系统面临着越来越严峻的信息安全问题,因此信息安全措施越来越广泛地应用于工业控制系统当中。然而,这些信息安全措施是否会对原有的功能安全措施产生影响,两者之间是否存在潜在的矛盾和冲突,两者如何有效兼容运行,业内并无公认的、可落地执行的解决方案。为保证工业控制系统安全功能的可靠执行,同时又能有效抵御越来越严重的信息安全攻击,须探索一种适用于工业控制系统的、有效确保信息安全与功能安全措施相互兼容的技术方案。以典型的SIL3和SL3工业控制系统为例,基于功能安全措施,逐一遍历信息安全措施,识别出两者潜在的矛盾问题,采用事件树和风险分析相结合的方法给出功能安全与信息安全协同解决方案,最终得到工业控制系统功能安全与信息安全一体化防护措施。     

A systems-theoretic approach for two-stage emergency risk analysis

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that has dramatically spread worldwide. Regarding the safety issues of industries, there is a requirement of dealing with the emergency risk in the period of urgent situations. In this work, we proposed a systems-theoretic approach of the two-stage emergency risk analysis (ERA) based on the systems theory, that is the System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). The two-stage ERA includes the normal to emergency risk analysis (N2E-RA) and emergency to normal risk analysis (E2N-RA). Besides N2E-RA, we advocate that E2N-RA is also an important and indispensable part of ERA. We elaborated the characteristics of N2E-RA and E2N-RA, separately. Eventually, based on our analysis, we provided recommendations for decision makers in preventing and controlling industrial accidents in the period of COVID-19.     

水库大坝的社会与环境风险标准研究

对水库大坝进行风险评价时,涉及生命风险、经济风险及社会与环境风险标准.目前国际上关于社会与环境风险标准仍为空白.本文对社会与环境影响要素进行量化,再综合成社会与环境影响指数,并结合我国国情,借用F-N线法初步确定了我国的社会与环境风险标准.沙河集等6座水库的初步应用结果表明,该风险标准及其确定方法基本合理可行,可用于水库大坝风险评价.     

Toward an integrative approach of the industrial risk management process in France

Management in the field of environmental protection and risk prevention has evolved to the increasing participation of all stakeholders in the decision-making process. It certainly results from the development of the Information society and the global increase of knowledge of the population, combined with the concerns of the populations related to a sustainable development of our civilisation. Our ‘risk society’, following the big industrial disasters (Flixborough,Tchernobyl, Bhopal, Challenger, and more recently Toulouse), has also developed a cautious attitude towards the role of the expertise when it comes to assessing risks, along with a question of the ability of science to give definite answers.

This has lead in particular to the adoption of the Aarhus convention in 1998 and the evolution of several regulations in the developed countries. For example, in France the new law no. 2003–699 of 30 July 2003 about the ‘prevention of the technological and natural risks and to the compensation for the damages’ has introduced an important innovation into the process of technological risks prevention.

This law has enabled the involvement of the stakeholders in the decision-making process related to risk prevention and has urged the development of specific tools to deal with the complexity of risk management issues, in particular for those related to land-use planning.

As technical support to decision-makers in risk management from both public and private sectors, INERIS has played an important role for the evolution of the French risk management system.

This paper describes an analysis on the difficulty to control major accident hazards in an evolving context where the industrial systems becomes more and more complex and where the expectations of the civil society has increased. Then, the authors describe how an integrated vision for industrial risk management has emerged in France and is being implemented in a new law adopted after the Toulouse disaster.     

城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法研究

针对城市应急管理的特点,提出了一种城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法。在ARAMIS方法的基础上,对严重度计算进行了修订,引入了急性暴露指南（AEGL）标准对事故后果进行分区;同时,增加了与应急救援效率相关的指标进行风险目标的脆弱性评估;利用GIS技术,对严重度和脆弱性进行叠加分析,绘制出城市重大危险源区域风险地图。以液氨储罐毒气泄漏事故为例,对文中提出的方法进行了验证。实例分析表明,此方法为快速获取城市重大危险源区域风险的空间分布格局提供了新思路,对于降低城市突发环境污染事故的影响和辅助决策者制定科学的城市公共安全管理决策具有一定的现实意义。     

Bolted flange joints equipped with FBG sensors in industrial piping systems subjected to seismic loads

The vulnerability of major-hazard industrial plants to natural hazards has been recognized as an emergent issue whose importance is underlined by the Sendai Framework, established immediately after the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, in Japan. Hence, seismic risk analysis is of paramount importance as testified by the intense research activity that characterized the last years. In this respect, structural health monitoring can represent a valuable tool able to strongly help the decision-making phase. Along this main vein, optical fibers (OFs) represent a class of sensors able to both monitor critical conditions, as leakage of hazardous material, and activate safety barriers, if any. More precisely, optical fibers represent an economic solution, whose characteristics appear particularly suitable for dangerous environments like major-hazard plants. However, investigations relevant to their use for seismic monitoring of chemical/petrochemical plants are rather limited, especially when subject to strong dynamic excitations. As a result, this paper deals with the analysis of optical fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) applied to bolted flange joints (BFJ) under cyclic loadings. More precisely, two experimental programs, i.e., a cyclic test on a single BFJ and a series of shaking table tests on BFJs of a multicomponent system, demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring systems in detecting hazardous conditions and, thus, their potential use in conjunction with safety barriers.