Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policies.     

全球气候变化政策的多哈站

本次气候大会的有限进展和成果可归结为两个关键词:差距(Gap),是政治承诺和科学发现的差距,是当前承诺离实现两度温控目标的差距,是会议成果与公众和社会期待的差距;脱节(Disconnect),是美、日、加、俄、新等国家和京都二期的脱节,是现实绿色气候基金与兑现每年1000亿美元融资的脱节,是谈判进程缓慢与气候变化加剧所需的快速行动的脱节。     

Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour

The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples’ awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility.     

The fiscal implications of climate change and policy responses

This paper is concerned with the implications of climate change, and government policies to address it, for countries’ fiscal systems at the national level. Given the uncertainties associated with climate change and countries’ responses to it, the article can do no more than review and suggest some of the major issues of likely importance for fiscal sustainability and how they might be addressed. First the paper defines fiscal sustainability and addresses some general issues related to countries’ attempts to adapt to or mitigate climate change. It then works through a number of more specific issues, discussing policies such as the implementation of environmental taxes or other instruments for the mitigation of climate change. The assessment of the impacts of such policies on fiscal sustainability requires the application of sophisticated economic models, and the paper briefly explores the relative advantages of different modeling approaches in relation to the assessment of fiscal sustainability under policies to mitigate climate change. The major research need identified by the paper is for the development of macroeconomic models that will enable countries identify the wider effects of environmental taxes and help them undertake multi-year budgeting processes.     

Transport policy and climate change: How to decide when experts disagree

Transport is the sector with the fastest growth of greenhouse gases emissions in many countries. Accumulation of these emissions may cause uncertain and irreversible adverse climate change impacts. In this context, we use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to face the question on how to select the best transport policy if the experts have different opinions and beliefs on the occurrence of these impacts. Thus, both the treatment of uncertainty and dissent are examined for the ranking of transport policies. The opinions of experts have been investigated by a means of a survey questionnaire. A sensitivity analysis of the experts’ weights and the criteria’ weights confirms the robustness of the results.     

From federal to city mitigation and adaptation: climate change policy in Mexico City

Climate change is projected to affect Latin America and the Caribbean as a result of increased temperatures and changed rainfall patterns. The impacts of climate change are expected to be unevenly distributed throughout the region, due to differences in geographic location, demographic pressures, levels of poverty, and natural resource dependence. To date, few studies have explored these impacts and the governmental responses to cope with them at a city scale. This article examines the challenges faced by the Mexico City government as it translates the federal climate change policy into successful mitigation and adaptation. It analyzes climate change impacts on Mexico and Mexico City (also known as the Federal District), the federal and city’s mitigation and adaptation responses, and advances and contradictions in the implementation of these strategies at the national and city levels. Similar problems have limited the effectiveness of these actions at both the federal and city levels, including the overexploitation of natural resources, a lack of climate information and monitoring systems, and the subordination of climate change strategies to the objectives of economic growth and poverty reduction. These problems have resulted in poor coordination and collaboration among various levels of government to cope with climate change, in addition to avoiding local capacity building, particularly in regard to forest conservation.     

Constituting leadership via policy: Sweden as a pioneer of climate change mitigation

This paper examines Sweden’s role as a pioneer in mitigating climate change. Critical discourse analysis of climate and energy policy unveils Sweden’s ambition to ‘lead-by-example’, by virtue of a win–win combination of economy and environment via stringent regulations and an early-mover strategy on eco-innovations. The extent of the unilateral approach is constrained by concerns for the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries and a persistent debate on the fate of Swedish nuclear power. Whilst Sweden has made significant demonstrative progress in reducing emissions and introducing renewable energy sources, these issues may limit her role as a pioneer in years to come.     

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.     

Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change: defining hotspot municipalities for policy design and implementation in Brazil

We developed an indicator that defines priority municipalities in order to facilitate the deployment of preventive policies and strategies for ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change (EbA) in Brazilian municipalities. Based on the premises that poor people are the population most vulnerable to climate change and that conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems are adaptive to climate change, our indicator uses three parameters: (1) poverty, (2) proportion of natural-vegetation cover, and (3) exposure to climate change. Thus, we searched for Brazilian municipalities that simultaneously belonged to the quartile of municipalities with the highest percentage of poverty, the quartile with the highest percentage of natural-vegetation cover, and the quartile with the highest exposure indices in two global climate models (Eta-HadGEM, Eta-Miroc). We found 398 (7.1%) EbA hotspots among 5565 Brazilian municipalities, which comprise 36% of the total area of native remnants in the country and are home to 22% of the poor people in Brazil. In their majority, these municipalities cover significant portions of the Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic forest, and indeed, these regions are recognised as some of the most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Considering the relevance of these biomes for the global water and nutrient cycle (Amazon), global food security (Cerrado), vulnerability to desertification (Caatinga), and biodiversity (all) we discuss the adaptive strategies in place, the need to bring them to scale, and existing policy gaps. Finally, in an effort to guide international and national investment and policies, we discuss how the approach described here can be applied to societies inhabiting tropical forests, savannas, and semiarid zones in other parts of the world. In particular, we propose that the indicator developed here is a simple and fast way to achieve early detection of priority municipalities for deployment of EbA action and policies, particularly in tropical developing countries.     

Influence of tree species composition,thinning intensity and climate change on carbon sequestration in Mediterranean mountain forests: a case study using the CO2Fix model

Prediction of future forest carbon (C) stocks as influenced by forest management and climate is a crucial issue in the search for strategies to mitigate and adapt to global change. It is hard to quantify the long-term effect of specific forest practices on C stocks due to the high number of processes affected by forest management. This work aims to quantify how forest management impacts C stocks in Mediterranean mountain forests based on 25 combinations of site index, tree species composition and thinning intensity in three different climate scenarios using the CO2Fix v.3.2 model Masera et al. (Ecol Modell 164:177–199, 2003). The study area is an ecotonal zone located in Central Spain, and the tree species are Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.). Our results show a strong effect of tree species composition and a negligible effect of thinning intensity. Mixed stands have the highest total stand C stocks: 100 % and 15 % more than pure oak and pine stands respectively, and are here suggested as a feasible and effective mitigation option. Climate change induced a net C loss compared to control scenarios, when reduction in tree growth is taken into account. Mixed stands showed the lowest reduction in forest C stocks due to climate change, indicating that mixed stands are also a valid adaptation strategy. Thus converting from pure to mixed forests would enhance C sequestration under both current and future climate conditions.     

Overlapping consensus versus discourse in climate change policy: The case of Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund

This paper is motivated by the mismatch between emission of greenhouse gases and effective mitigation policies. Science now calls for every tool to be considered in order for radical changes to mitigate the situation more effectively. This paper considers Norway's huge Sovereign Wealth Fund which, although withdrawing investment from firms causing severe environmental damage, does not categorize climate change as ‘severe environmental damage’. The main reason is a basis of overlapping consensus, which also hinders argumentation for this practice.Overlapping consensus is part of the broader theory “Justice as Fairness” as conceived by John Rawls. The consensus is with regard to having a socially just system. The word ‘overlapping’ refers to people having different reasons for supporting the system. However using overlapping consensus for investment-strategies represents an extension beyond its original intention, and moreover, removes mitigating climate change from the agenda. Removing the basis of overlapping consensus opens up scope for value-based discourse conceived by Habermas’ communicative action and discourse ethics. The immense severity of climate change demands value-based and substantial arguments from powerful sovereign wealth funds, to consider the acceptability of their practice.     

Adapting to climate change: reducing water-related risks in Europe – EU policy and research considerations

Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle, e.g. leading to changes of precipitation patterns, have been observed over several decades. Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes hydrometeorological events (including floods and droughts) are likely to exacerbate different types of pressures on water resources with possible negative impacts on ecosystems and human health. In addition, sea-level rise is expected to extend areas of salinisation of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease of freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas. Furthermore, climate-related changes in water quantity and quality are expected to affect food availability, water access and utilisation, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, as well as the operation of water infrastructure (e.g. hydropower, flood defences, and irrigation systems). This paper serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy dealing with climate change impacts on water-related disasters. It provides a brief background about relevant EU water policies and examples of EU-funded research trends which illustrate on-going efforts to improve understanding and modelling of climate changes related to the hydrological cycles at scales that are relevant to decision making (possibly linked to policy).     

Adaptations to climate change,drought and desertification: local insights to enhance policy in southern Africa

The impacts of climate change, drought and desertification are closely interlinked, and most acutely experienced by populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to affect the Southern Africa region, it is essential to assess how household and community-level adaptations have been helped or hindered by institutional structures and national policy instruments. In particular, there is a need to reflect on efforts related to the United Nations’ environmental conventions to ensure that policies support the maintenance of local adaptations and help retain the resilience of socio-economic and environmental systems. This paper examines three interlinked drivers of adaptation: climate change, desertification and drought, assessing the extent to which international and national policy supports local adaptive strategies in three countries in southern Africa. We show that while common ground exists between desertification and climate change adaptations at the policy level, they are insufficiently mainstreamed within broader development approaches. Similarly, there are some overlaps between policy-driven and autonomous local adaptations, but the mutually supportive links between them are poorly developed. Further efforts to integrate local adaptation strategies within policy could increase local resilience to environmental change, while also contributing to wider development goals.     

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO₂. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.     

Institutional challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on policy action gaps in Uganda

Despite the considerable progress made in the last decade towards building governance systems for climate change adaptation in Africa, implementation still limits positive responses. This study applies an iterative process of field assessments and literature reviews across multiple governance levels and spatial scales to identify constraints to effective formulation and implementation of climate change related policies and strategies in Uganda. Data was collected through sex-segregated participatory vulnerability assessments with farming communities in Rakai district, policy document reviews, and interviews with policy actors at national and district levels. Findings reveal that the key challenges to effective policy implementation are diverse and cut across the policy development and implementation cycle. Policies are mainly developed by central government agencies; other actors are insufficiently involved while local communities are excluded. There is also a communication disconnect between national, district, and community levels. Coupled with limited technical capacity and finances, political interference, and absence of functional implementation structures across these levels, climate change adaptation becomes constrained. We propose strategies that enhance linkages between levels and actors, which will improve policy formulation, implementation and ultimately adaptation by smallholders.     

Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

Consequence of the sea level rise (SLR) on the Mediterranean coastal areas in Egypt, particularly the Nile River Delta, has become an issue of major concern to Egypt’s population and the government. Previous publications disregard the entire Mediterranean coast of Egypt as an integral unit subject to the impacts of the SLR. This study aims to analyzing the risks, ranking the vulnerability and suggesting adaptation measures to mitigate the impact of the SLR along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Although the prominent features of Egypt’s Mediterranean coastal zone are the low lying coast of the Nile Delta, associated with land subsidence, tectonic activities and erosion; the contiguous coastal sectors are backed by shore-parallel carbonate ridges and Plateau (the western coast) and sand dune belts (Sinai coast). The coastal zone is ranked as high, moderate, and low vulnerable to the SLR. The social and biophysical vulnerabilities demonstrate the asymmetrical impacts of the SLR on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Areas at risk in the Alexandria region are Mandara and El Tarh whereas in the Nile Delta region, they are the Manzala Lagoon barrier, east and west of the Rosetta City, Gamil, and the Tineh plain. Risk associated with these impacts may be reduced provided the consideration of immediate and adequate adaptation measures.     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

Mainstreaming climate policy: the role of media coverage in Finland

Integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into other policies is considered to be a precondition for effective climate policies. This paper explores the role of mass media coverage as a potential obstacle or enhancing factor in relation to this mainstreaming of climate policies. The paper presents a quantitative content analysis of the national-level press coverage of climate change from 1990 to 2010, focusing on Finland. The empirical results indicate four major phases of Finnish media coverage of climate change: a definition phase before the Kyoto meeting in 1997, a maturation phase after the Kyoto meeting, climate hype in 2006–2008, and a phase of levelling off that started in late 2008. The results suggest that climate issues have widely permeated various fields of newspaper coverage. This broad-based debate may create and sustain a public agenda potentially favourable to attempts to bring climate policies into the mainstream of other policy domains. However, it also may open doors for unexpected initiatives by various activists and lobbyists that employ climate concern as a tool to advance other interests. The role of mass media has received little attention in studies focusing on the mainstreaming of climate policies. This paper highlights the importance of taking media coverage into account as a key factor in the formulation and implementation of environmental policies aimed at broad-based actions.     

The role of environmental statisticians in environmental policy: the case of performance measurement

Environmental statisticians often experience the difficult task to provide clear results for environmental policy objectives on the basis of complex science, limited data, and many sources of uncertainty. This paper highlights the particularly challenging situation of environmental statistics in developing countries before focusing on the role of statisticians working at the nexus of environmental statistics and policy within the context of measuring environmental performance. Three issues create particular tension at the environmental science-policy junction: (1) the general complexity of environmental problems (including scientific uncertainty and insufficient data) and the often negative perceptions associated with their solution, (2) the comparatively recent introduction of quantitative methods and information to the environmental policy process and continued skepticism and ideologically motivated resistance to their routine integration, and (3) the language barriers between policymakers and statisticians as well as between statisticians and other scientists engaged in environmental research. Based on the case study of the 2006 Pilot Environmental Performance Index (EPI) developed by an interdisciplinary team at the universities Yale and Columbia the paper examines how the EPI tackles these tensions while aiming to be a fact-based, statistically sound policy tool that helps countries achieve environmental objectives by tracking progress, identifying environmental “best practices”, and providing strategic peer-group analyses. In conclusion, the paper suggests some remedies for the deficiencies in the co-operation between policymakers and environmental statisticians.     

Mediterranean shrublands carbon sequestration: environmental and economic benefits

To date, only a few attempts have been done to estimate the contribution of Mediterranean ecosystems to the global carbon cycle. Within this context, shrub species, composition and structure of the Mediterranean shrublands developing along the Latium coast (Italy) were analyzed in order to evaluate their contribution to carbon (C) sequestration, also taking into consideration the economic benefits at a national level. The considered shrublands had a shrub density of 1,200?±?500 shrubs ha^?1. Shrubs were classified into small (S), medium (M) and large (L), according to their volume (V) and leaf area index (LAI). The total yearly carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration per species (SC_y) was calculated multiplying the total photosynthetic leaf surface area (spt) of each species by the mean yearly photosynthetic rate and the total yearly photosynthetic activity time (in hours). Q. ilex and A. unedo had the highest SC_y (46.2?±?15.8 kg CO₂ year^?1, mean value), followed by P. latifolia (17.5?±?6.2 kg CO₂ year^?1), E. arborea, E. multiflora, C. incanus, P. lentiscus, R. officinalis, and S. aspera (6.8?±?4.2 kg CO₂ year^?1, mean value). The total yearly CO₂ sequestration per shrub (SC_shy) was 149?±?5 kg CO₂ year^?1 in L, decreasing 30 % in M and 80 % in S shrubs. Taking into account the frequency of S, M and L and their SC_shy, the total CO₂ sequestration of the Mediterranean maquis was quantified in 80 Mg CO₂ ha^?1?year^?1, corresponding to 22 Mg C ha^?1?year^?1. From a monetary viewpoint, this quantity could be valued to more than 500 US$ ha^?1?year^?1. Extending this benefit to the Mediterranean shrublands throughout the whole country, we obtained a nationwide estimated annual benefit in the order of $500 million.