CDM项目温室气体减排成本的不确定性分析

以清洁发展机制(CDM)为背景,针对计算温室气体排放量和减排成本中存在的不确定性进行了MonteCarlo模拟研究,分析了不确定性变量是如何影响决策变量的.结论是:各类碳排放因子、碳排放量、碳减排成本、减排收益是相互关联而存在连锁影响的,其中的发电碳排放因子和煤炭开采释放的甲烷排放系数是主要的.这为进一步计算或估计存在的风险,从而为参与CDM谈判决策提供重要的决策参考.     

黄花和脱水污泥厌氧消化的温室气体减排研究

采用联合国政府间气候委员会(IPCC)推荐的方法,对植物加拿大一枝黄花和污泥生物质厌氧消化产沼气的环境和能量影响进行了评估.环境影响评估重点关注温室气体(GHG)减排,将加拿大一枝黄花和脱水污泥的中温小试厌氧消化的甲烷产率数据运用于GHG减排潜质的计算;能量评估包括污泥贮存及传播、消化液的沼气逃逸,及化学肥料和化学药剂的投加几个过程中的直接和间接的能量输入.结果表明,一枝黄花和脱水污泥联合厌氧消化净GHG排放量随着SRT的缩短和黄花添加比例的增加而逐渐下降,在二者以挥发性固体(VS)比例1:1混合,停留时间为20d时的能量效率较高,GHG减排量较大,与基础方案相比,添加黄花可以实现78%的净GHG减排.     

长三角地区全氟温室气体本底特征及来源

采用位于长三角地区的临安区域大气本底站罐采样获得的全氟温室气体（PFCs、SF₆、NF₃、SO₂F₂）浓度,分析2011~2020年该地区大气中全氟温室气体的浓度分布特征和变化趋势.结果显示,临安站绝大部分全氟温室气体的浓度均呈现逐年升高的变化趋势,至2020年长三角地区全氟温室气体本底浓度分别达到（86.30±0.52）×10^-12（CF₄）、（5.03±0.00）×10^-12（C₂F₆）、（0.70±0.01）×10^-12（C₃F₈）、（1.82±0.00）×10^-12（c-C₄F₈）、（10.44±0.01）×10^-12（SF₆）、（2.36±0.04）×10^-12（NF₃）、（2.61±0.05）×10^-12（SO₂F₂）.长三角地区大部分全氟温室气体的本底浓度与全球本底值接近.通过对临安站全氟温室气体污染浓度的潜在源贡献作用（PSCF）和浓度权重轨迹（CWT）分析显示,临安站全氟化碳PFCs （CF₄、C₄F₁₀、C₂F₆、C₃F₈、c-C₄F₈）的潜在源区主要包括山东、江苏、安徽、上海、浙江中北部和江西东北部地区,NF₃、SF₆、SO₂F₂的潜在源区则集中在江苏中南部、上海、浙北地区.     

Palm oil and the emission of carbon-based greenhouse gases

The current use of South Asian palm oil as biofuel is far from climate neutral. Dependent on assumptions, losses of biogenic carbon associated with ecosystems, emission of CO₂ due to the use of fossil fuels and the anaerobic conversion of palm oil mill effluent currently correspond in South Asia with an emission of about 2.8–19.7 kg CO₂ equivalent per kg of palm oil. Using oil palm and palm oil processing wastes for the generation of energy and preventing further conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantations by establishing new plantations on non-peaty degraded soils can, however, lead to large cuts in the emission of carbon-based greenhouse gases currently associated with the palm oil lifecycle.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gases by adoption of improved biomass cookstoves

Greenhouse gases especially CO₂ can be reduced with the help of improved biomass cookstoves. This paper deals with the design and development of biomass stoves (single pot and double pot) with better efficiency for meeting household cooking energy requirement. Thermal performance, flue gas emission of carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) have been investigated. It was seen from the result that the flue gas emission is within permissible limit as recommended by World Health Organization. The design of improved biomass stove sent to Palampur (32^o10’N,76^o30’E) center situated in Himalaya in hilly terrain of India, where the acceptability of double pot stoves (85%) is quite high compared to single pot stoves (30%). Thermal efficiencies of both single and double pot stove were recorded about 21% and 25% respectively. An improved biomass cookstove can save about 161 kg of CO₂ annually. Improved cookstoves was found eco-friendly in nature and suitable for the cooking requirement of hilly areas.     

Comparative lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and their reduction potential for typical petrochemical enterprises in China

Petrochemical enterprises have become a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Yet, due to the unavailability of basic data, there is still a lack of case studies to quantify GHG emissions and provide petrochemical enterprises with guidelines for implementing energy conservation and emission reduction strategies. Therefore, this study conducted a life cycle assessment (LCA) analysis to estimate the GHG emissions of four typical petrochemical enterprises in China, using first-hand data, to determine possible emission reduction measures. The analytical data revealed that Dushanzi Petrochemical (DSP) has the highest GHG emission intensity (1.17 tons CO₂e/ton), followed by Urumqi Petrochemical (UP) (1.08 tons CO₂e/ton), Dalian Petrochemical (DLP) (average 0.58 tons CO₂e/ton) and Karamay Petrochemical (KP) (average 0.50 tons CO₂e/ton) over the whole life cycle. At the same time, GHG emissions during fossil fuel combustion were the largest contributor to the whole life cycle, accounting for about 77.31%–94.27% of the total emissions. In the fossil-fuel combustion phase, DSP had the highest unit GHG emissions (1.20 tons CO₂e), followed by UP (0.89 tons CO₂e). In the industrial production phase, DLP had the highest unit GHG emissions (average 0.13 tons CO₂e/ton), followed by UP (0.10 tons CO₂e/ton). During the torch burning phase, torch burning under accident conditions was the main source of GHG emissions. It is worth noting that the CO₂ recovery stage has "negative value," indicating that it will bring some environmental benefits. Further scenario analysis shows that effective policies and advanced technologies can further reduce GHG emissions.     

城市交通部门温室气体和大气污染物协同减排潜力分析—以唐山市为例

以唐山市为例开展交通部门温室气体协同大气污染物减排潜力评估,首次在协同减排中考虑汽车空调制冷剂泄漏引起的温室效应,指出淘汰老旧车辆的附带效应,并借用协同发展理论中的协同度指标来测算各项措施减少污染物和温室气体排放的协同减排潜力。结果表明：在实施全部减排措施情况下,全市交通部门温室气体排放将于2030年达峰,大气污染物排放将在“十四五”末期达到峰值;全市当前因汽车制冷剂泄漏产生温室气体排放效应达28.08万t（以CO₂计）,占全部温室气体排放比例约4.7%,其中50%的排放来自汽车运行过程,且排放量将随汽车保有量上升而提高,需要针对运营、维修和报废过程的空调制冷剂泄漏量制定相应方案;采用协同度评价标准能有效区分不同措施的协同减排力度;淘汰国3及以下车辆时,绝对减排量大、协同度好,尽管在实施期内可能引起制冷剂泄漏量增加,但整体仍能实现协同减排;柴油货车改天然气和提高“公转水”比例,综合减排协同度好,但其在单一大气污染物与温室气体减排方面存在负向协同,需要配合其他减排措施同步推行。

     

模拟潮汐和植被对湿地温室气体通量的影响研究

以福建省九龙江入海口的滩涂潮间带作为研究对象,通过原位采样和室内人工微宇宙实验,利用静态箱-气相色谱法,研究了潮汐植被对湿地CH₄、CO₂和N₂O 3种重要温室气体通量的影响.结果表明,3种温室气体通量在模拟潮汐和植被作用下表现出明显的差异.模拟潮汐对CH₄和N₂O通量的影响没有明显的规律,总量上都表现为排放;对CO₂通量具有显著影响,退潮时抑制,表现为吸收,涨潮时促进,表现为排放.植被促进CH₄的排放,对CO₂通量影响无明显规律,对N₂O通量表现为抑制作用.植被除了自身对温室气体直接作用外,还通过改变沉积物的理化性质影响微生物活动,进而影响温室气体通量.综合分析,植被对温室气体通量的影响要比模拟潮汐作用明显.     

Marginal costs of abating greenhouse gases in the global ruminant livestock sector

Livestock [inclusive of ruminant species, namely cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), goats (Capra hircus), and buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis), and non-ruminant species, namely pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) and chickens (Gallus domesticus)] are both affected by climate change and contribute as much as 14.5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, most of which is from ruminant animals (Gerber et al. 2013). This study aims to estimate the marginal costs of reducing GHG emissions for a selection of practices in the ruminant livestock sector (inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle, sheep, and goats) globally. It advances on previous assessments by calculating marginal costs rather than commonly reported average costs of abatement and can thus provide insights about abatement responses at different carbon prices. We selected the most promising abatement options based on their effectiveness and feasibility. Improved grazing management and legume sowing are the main practices assessed in grazing systems. The urea (CO(NH₂)₂) treatment of crop straws is the main practice applied in mixed crop–livestock systems, while the feeding of dietary lipids and nitrates are confined to more intensive production systems. These practices were estimated to reduce emissions by up to 379 metric megatons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent emissions per year (MtCO₂-eq yr^?1). Two thirds of this reduction was estimated to be possible at a carbon price of 20 US dollars per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent emissions ($20 tCO₂-eq^?1). This study also provides strategic guidance as to where abatement efforts could be most cost effectively targeted. For example, improved grazing management was particularly cost effective in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while legume sowing appeared to work best in Western Europe and Latin America.     

农垦对草甸草原生态系统温室气体(CH4和N2O)的影响

2012~2013年在呼伦贝尔谢尔塔拉牧场对天然草甸草地和草地开垦农田后,不同农作物种植和管理措施下甲烷(CH4)和氧化亚氮(N2O)排放进行了野外实地观测.结果表明,天然草甸草地和农田均为大气CH4的吸收汇、N2O的排放源.在生长季,天然草甸草地开垦增强了土壤的N2O排放量,但是对土壤CH4通量的影响却存在较大的不确定性.在相同的气象条件下,作物类型对生长季农田CH4和N2O排放通量都没有影响.在生长季,灌溉对干旱农田的CH4平均吸收通量没有显著影响,但降低了干旱农田N2O的平均排放通量.2012年和2013年农田CH4和N2O的差异主要是因为降雨量不同导致的年际差异.回归分析表明,N2O排放通量与土壤湿度呈线性相关,与土壤温度没有相关性,CH4的吸收通量与土壤温度呈线性相关,与土壤湿度呈线性负相关.土壤湿度是影响土壤CH4吸收和N2O排放的主要因素.     

地膜覆盖对菜地土壤剖面温室气体的影响

为了解地膜覆盖对菜地剖面温室气体的影响,本研究利用扩散箱法测定了2014-2015年西南地区辣椒-萝卜轮作菜地10、20和30 cm土壤剖面的CH4、CO2和N2O的浓度.结果表明,整个观测季覆膜(F)和不覆膜(NF)处理土壤剖面的CH4浓度均随土壤深度增加而降低.与NF相比,覆膜极显著提高了辣椒季30 cm土层的CH...     

Economic and health benefits of the co-reduction of air pollutants and greenhouse gases

This study examines the monetary value of social costs—private costs and negative externalities—that could be avoided by energy conservation actions. A novel Air Resource Co-Benefits (ARCoB) model has been developed in this study to assess the comprehensive social benefits of greenhouse gas GHG mitigation policy. The rollback model is used to estimate changes in air pollutant concentrations attributed to the emission reductions. Change in ozone concentration is converted from non-methane hydrocarbons based on the maximum ozone increment reactivity. In addition to saved medical expenditure, years of potential life lost (YPLL) is estimated based on the exposure-response coefficients for mortality and is calculated with abridged life table. Two cases of energy efficiency improvement in different scales are analyzed to estimate the annual co-benefits of abatements of air pollutants and greenhouse gas in 2009: 1) the energy intensity reduction in the industrial sector and 2) energy saving at Taipei Taiwan City Hall. Results indicate the saved energy cost accounted for 66 % and 70 % in the first and second case, respectively, and was a major part of the total benefit from energy conservation. The saved air pollution fee was 7.8–8.5 times lower than the averted health cost of medical expenditure, which was US$10.34 million in the first case, in which there were also averted YPLL of 3,478 person-years or averted deaths of 311 persons per year.     

生活垃圾分类对固体废弃物和温室气体协同减排的影响研究——以浙江省为例

通过垃圾分类解决垃圾处理问题、促进资源循环利用已成为普遍共识,生活垃圾分类对垃圾处理过程温室气体减排的协同作用日益凸显。废弃物处理是浙江省温室气体排放尚未达峰的领域之一,因此废弃物处理领域特别是生活垃圾处理领域的温室气体减排,对浙江省温室气体排放全面达峰至关重要。本研究基于生活垃圾处理过程温室气体排放核算方法,设定到2022年浙江省未全面推进生活垃圾分类和全面推进生活垃圾分类两个情景,预测和比较两种情景下生活垃圾产生量、分类回收量及处理过程产生的温室气体排放量。结果显示,通过推进生活垃圾分类,生活垃圾处理过程温室气体排放量减少24%,且焚烧处理过程减排效果更明显,可促成生活垃圾处理温室气体排放的提前达峰。基于上述结论,本研究最后针对生活垃圾分类工作及末端处理方式提出了三点建议。     

潘家口水库温室气体溶存、排放特征及影响因素

以大型深水水电类水库潘家口水库为例,于2020年春季（5月）、夏季（8月）在研究区设置33个采样点,采用顶空平衡-气相色谱法和经验模型法对水柱温室气体浓度和水-气界面扩散通量进行了观测及估算,并分析了潘家口水库温室气体浓度及通量的主要影响因素.结果表明：春季潘家口水库水-气界面CH₄、CO₂、N₂O平均通量分别为（1.11±1.60）μmol/（m²·h）,（1333.31±546.43）μmol/（m²·h）,（76.65±19.54）nmol/（m²·h）.夏季潘家口水库水-气界面CH₄、CO₂、N₂O平均通量分别为（0.62±1.13）μmol/（m²·h）,（746.08±1152.44）μmol/（m²·h）,（141.18±256.02）nmol/（m²·h）.潘家口水库温室气体排放呈现出大的时空异质性,空间上春季和夏季各温室气体通量均表现为干流大于支流;季节上CH₄与CO₂扩散通量表现为春季大于夏季,而N₂O扩散通量夏季大于春季.统计分析表明CH₄扩散通量主要受电导率、风速等环境因子影响,CO₂扩散通量受风速、pH及DOC影响,N₂O扩散通量主要受水柱NO₃^--N、NO₂^--N的影响.     

基于LCA的北京市公交车节能及温室气体减排潜力分析

新能源公交车是未来城市公交行业节能及温室气体减排的重点发展方向.新能源公交车在行驶阶段具有良好的节能及温室气体减排效果,而汽车制造、能源生产等相关生命周期阶段的能耗及温室气体排放常被忽视,且目前新能源公交车的乘客运载功能相对较弱,可能对节能及温室气体减排的潜力造成较为显著的影响.因此,本文基于北京市公交车的运营特征,采用生命周期评价(LCA)方法,选择客运周转量作为功能单位,核算了天然气公交车、混合动力公交车和纯电动公交车等新能源公交车相对于柴油公交车的节能及温室气体减排效益.结果表明:发展新能源公交车对促进北京市公交行业及城市节能低碳发展具有积极的作用,但相对于基于运营里程的核算结果,本研究新能源公交车节能及温室气体减排潜力均较低,主要原因是新能源公交车的实际载客量相对较低;混合动力公交车和纯电动公交车在空调开启时的节能潜力与温室气体减排潜力均远低于天然气公交车;通过发展情景分析,建议北京市现阶段应优先发展天然气公交车,适当发展纯电动公交车和混合动力公交车,以减少北京市公交车的总体能耗,同时降低温室气体排放强度.     

Networking among companies represents a potential for CO2 reduction

According to the Kyoto Protocol, by 2012 Norwegian emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced to about 10% lower than the 1998 level. In order to achieve this target, the Government intends to give greater priority to energy efficiency measures. This article considers the Norwegian Energy Efficiency Network and describes experiences from the implementation of Energy Management in Norwegian industry. The conclusions are (1) co-operation through networking among companies is an effective way for them to work together to help them achieve lower energy consumption per produced unit and (2) energy schemes represent a CO₂ reduction potential that may be realised at short-term net cost savings.     

城市污泥堆肥对土壤温室气体排放的短期影响

采用田间试验,施用2种城市污泥堆肥（含生物质炭和不含生物质炭）,通过静态暗箱-气相色谱法研究污泥堆肥土地利用过程温室气体排放特征,探讨施用污泥堆肥的短期影响作用.结果表明,在观测时间内,N₂O排放主要集中在前3周,约占总排放量的87.9%~95.6%.N₂O排放量均随污泥堆肥施用量的增加而增加（P<0.05）,裸地N₂O排放量高于种植作物处理.施用含生物质炭污泥堆肥能减少土壤N₂O排放,且随着施用量的增加,N₂O减少量越大（P<0.05）.CH₄排放量较低,在试验前期和后期主要为负,总体表现为吸收CH₄.各处理吸收CH₄主要集中在第18d以后,其CH₄吸收量占总吸收量的52.1%~66.7%.施用含生物质炭污泥堆肥处理CH₄吸收量比不含生物质炭污泥堆肥处理低35.2%~62.2%,同时,裸地CH₄吸收量明显高于种植作物处理（P<0.05）.CO₂排放也主要集中在18d以后,约占排放总量的50.5%~61.8%.种植作物能促进CO₂的排放,种植作物处理是裸地的1.34~1.57倍.在观测时间内,污泥堆肥土地利用是CH₄的弱吸收汇,是N₂O和CO₂的排放源,施加污泥堆肥能显著增加土壤N₂O和CO₂的排放.施用生物质炭污泥堆肥短期内能够减少温室气体总排放量,温室气体减排量达到20.41%~62.51%.     

咸阳市温室气体排放的动态分析及等级评估

通过采用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》推荐的方法,分析了咸阳市温室气体排放的动态变化,并提出基于全球标准的温室气体排放等级评价方法,对咸阳市温室气体进行了排放等级评估.结果表明:1995—2011年,咸阳市温室气体排放量从1253.21×104t上升为5531.06×104t,年均增高9.72%,呈快速上升趋势.工业(年均增高21.34%)为增幅最高的部门,其次依次为能源(9.62%)、废弃物(7.90%)、农业(2.45%).从温室气体构成看,能源占84.73%~91.81%,工业占1.46%~8.55%,农业占3.11%~9.32%,林业碳减排占-0.53%~-2.36%,废弃物处理占1.31%~8.39%.由此可见,咸阳市温室气体排放增长的主要原因是能源消费的增加以及工业生产的大幅增长.万元GDP温室气体排放量波动下降,年均降低4.53%;人均、单位面积温室气体排放量和温室气体排放指数快速升高,年均增幅分别达9.31%、9.72%和9.48%.16年间,咸阳市温室气体排放等级从较低(Ⅰc)持续升高至中上等级(Ⅱc),已高出应对全球气候变暖目标(Ⅰb)4个亚级,温室气体减排工作刻不容缓.     

土壤酸化对温室气体排放影响的培育实验研究

利用不同pH值的模拟酸雨(SAR)淋洗处理42个月获得具有不同累积酸化程度土壤,对其进行室内培养并研究了土壤温室气体CO₂、CH₄和N₂O的排放特征.结果表明,一定的酸化累积促进CO₂排放,而累积到某值时(如pH3.0₅酸化累积程度的加深而增加.相关分析显示,土壤pH值不是造成不同累积酸化程度土壤温室气体排放差异的直接原因;CO₂和CH₄排放差异主要是由于酸化累积过程导致土壤碳、氮以及其他养分元素含量的差异造成的,而导致N₂O排放差异的产生原因却十分复杂.     

轻型纯电动汽车生产和运行能耗及温室气体排放研究

基于中国本地化的环境负荷数据,建立了电动汽车全生命周期模型,深入分析和评估了电动汽车生产和运行两个阶段的能耗及温室气体排放(Greenhouse gases,GHGs).结果表明:电动汽车生产和运行过程的总能耗为474 GJ;GHGs为40500 kg(以CO2当量计),电动汽车生产和运行过程的GHGs分别占总排放量的23.5%和76.5%.对于电动汽车生产过程能耗和GHGs而言,原材料生产均为主要贡献者,GHGs占到车辆生产过程的74.6%,占生命周期的17.5%.另外,情景分析表明,再生材料应用、单位电力GHGs和百公里电耗能够在很大程度上影响电动汽车的碳排放.再生金属替代原生金属后,从情景1到情景5,车辆生产的GHGs下降了约22.2%,车辆生产和运行过程的总GHGs下降了约4.7%;单位电力GHGs每下降1%,电动汽车运行GHGs下降0.9%;电动汽车百公里电耗每下降1.0%,车辆生产和运行过程总GHGs下降约1.0%.因此,发展清洁能源、降低火力发电比例、优化原材料生产工艺、提高再生原材料用量等,是有效降低电动汽车全生命周期过程总能耗和GHGs的重要途径.