OPTIMAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE EXPANSION OF AN EXISTING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS1

The study of the optimal expansion of existing water resources systems is of continuing importance because of the rising demand and limited supply of water in many areas of the world, particularly in the southwestern part of the United States of America. This study is concerned with the investigation of the optimal expansion of a realistic water resources system to meet an increasing demand for municipal and industrial use, irrigation, energy, and recreation over a planning horizon of T years. A number of possible dam sites are available for the further regulation of river (canal) flows in the basin and/or the regulation of imported waters into the basin. To maximize, over the set of alternative projects, the sum of discounted present value of net earnings subject to the demands and various institutional, physical and budgetary limits, an optimization problem (Problem I) was formed as a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem and was decomposed into the set of all feasible combinations (Problem II). The economic return was determined for each combination (Problem III). Problem II was solved by a branch and bound procedure which selected each feasible combination of dams while the optimal return for each such combination (Problem III) was found by a network analysis code.     

A CODED ALGORITHM FOR CAPACITY EXPANSION OF A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a mathematical model, an algorithm and a computer program that were specially developed to study the problem of a water quality management system undergoing a rapidly increasing environmental stress. The model output will determine the locations, sizes and the timing of construction of new treatment plants plus an overall treatment plant operating policy so that environmental standards are maintained at a minimum cost. The model, as formulated, is a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem which is solved by decomposing it into a capital budgeting problem (solved by Little's branch and bound algorithm) and an operational policy problem (solved by linear programming). The coded algorithm (in FORTRAN 10) has been tested with a semi-realistic example.     

DESIRED AND ACHIEVED OUTCOMES IN FEDERAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT Local or project level planning occurs within most federal water resources programs. Such planning involves both federal and local participants, and commonly involves a range of interest groups. It is necessary to know what goals these participants believe the planning process ought to achieve in order to design planning procedures which will meet their expectations. Social judgment analysis was used to elicit those goals for respondents who had participated in one of five different federal water resources programs, in one of five different roles. Respondents also evaluated the extent to which the planning activities in a recent project in which they had participated had actually attained the posited goals. The respondents believed that responsiveness to local problems was significantly more important than resolving conflicts or increasing public understanding. A fourth goal, achieving national objectives, was believed to be less important than the other three. No significant differences in these goal evaluations were associated with the type of program in which the respondents had participated. However, there were significant differences associated with the respondent's role in the planning process. Respondents' ratings of the effectiveness of actual planning projects varied by both program and respondent role.     

A SCREENING MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Techniques of optimization and simulation are merged to select the most efficient arrangement of components for regional water resources development and management. Application is made to the Elkhorn River Basin in Nebraska. The Basin extends over 7,000 square miles and includes 184 proposed reservoirs. Structure sizes, locations and operating policies are selected for optimal plans based on economic efficiency and regional development. Results indicate that substantial savings in time and costs over conventional planning techniques are effected. Agreement between model output and agency design values was noted.     

ARE RIVER BASINS THE BEST FRAMEWORK FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING,DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT?

The author cites many discrepancies in using river basins as a framework for water resources planning, development, and management. He suggests that a national planning framework, an urban region framework, or increased attention to regional externalities might be viable. However, basically the author is seeking to elicit suggestions and recommendations from the readers.     

RIVER BASIN SIMULATION MODELS: GUIDELINES FOR THEIR USE IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Simulation models constructed to estimate the physical and economic performance of alternative river basin development configurations have been widely used since the start of the Harvard Water Program in the early 1960's. These models have proved useful in choosing from among several potential river basin configurations, since they can rapidly evaluate each configuration's expected performance. However, when dealing with large scale river basin development projects, in which over 50 or 100 alternative reservoirs, irrigation areas, and other components must be considered, it is sometimes quite difficult to effectively use a simulation model to rapidly identify those combinations of projects which best satisfy the development objectives. The purpose of this paper is to describe how a simulation model was used in the analysis of a complex river basin development project in Eastern Europe, and how the problems of scale were confronted and solved. The author's experience on this projet is used to derive a set of general guidelines which may be helpful in other simulation studies.     

A NONLINEAR MULTILEVEL MODEL FOR REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A nonlinear multilevel transportation model is developed to study large-scale allocations in a water resources system. The model uses a modified transportation matrix formulated with nonlinear cost functions as the basic subregional model and the goal coordination method for multilevel decomposition and optimization of the overall regional system. The model is applied to projected water requirements for Salt Lake County in 1985. Sources of water supply - surface water, ground water, import water, and reuse of reclaimed wastewater on a restricted basis - are available to satisfy water requirements for municipal, industrial, and agricultural sectors in four subregions. The conjugate gradient projection method is used to optimize the first level subregional models having cost functions of the form of C = aX^b, and the second level problem is solved using the conjugate gradient method.     

AN APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: AN ECONOMIC VIEW1

ABSTRACT: Individuals involved in state water resource planning generally have avoided any development of a comprehensive public water planning investment model that would set the stage for quantitative recommendations of a “what ought to be” tone for future water strategies. Three New Hampshire towns were selected to illustrate the usefulness of a mixed integer multiperiod programming model that utilizes hydrologic and economic data for identifying the discounted least cost of water supply, distribution, and scheduling. Comparisons are made regarding the feasibility of a regional water system approach versus independent “town by town” water supplies that presently prevail. To analyze the sensitivity of optimal water planning solutions to projected water demands, variations in these demands are made.     

ADDRESSING SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT1

Understanding social goals and objectives and incorporating them in water resources planning, management, education and engineering processes is the key to solving many current and emerging water resources problems. Water resources professionals must turn more of their attention to this issue. Various avenues are open for their involvement. They include lobbying, participating in government, education and research, publishing, establishing institutions, interacting with the public and analyzing existing systems.     

PLANNING LEVEL ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF RESERVOIRS FOR WATER SUPPLY AND FLOW AUGMENTATION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE1

: In general, the choice among reservoirs for water supply or flow augmentation is a multiobjective problem. Choices are based in part on the yield available from water supply reservoirs or, in the case of flow augmentation reservoirs, on the increase in low flows at downstream locations. Detailed estimates of these effects may be too costly for basin planning purposes. Thus this paper presents methods for rapid estimation of those quantities for New Hampshire. For water supply reservoirs, a composite empirical relation between Y95 (the draft available 95 percent of the time) and storage ratio, S*, is developed from previous studies in the region. For flow augmentation reservoirs, empirical relations between S* and degree of regulation, R*, are applied to each upstream regulating reservoir. Values of regulation arc then summed and divided by the mean flow at the downstream reach of interest. This parameter, (ΓR)*, is then related to increase in flow available 95 percent of the time by an empirical relation.     

A METHODOLOGY FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION ANALYSIS IN A STATE WATER RESOURCES PLANNING STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The paper presents a methodology for outdoor recreation analysis in a comprehensive State water resources planning study. This methodology applies to determination of recreation participation desires among the population, allocation of those desires to areas of potential resources within which they must be satisfied, comparison of the areal potential resources against the allocated desires to identify areas having recreational resource deficits or needs, and exploration of alternative solutions to the identified needs. Major elements discussed are: market area, inflow-outflow, resource desire determination and projection, resource desire allocation, facility inventory, resource desire-resource analysis and alternative solutions to identified needs of water-oriented outdoor recreation.     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY PLANNING MODEL FOR WATER AND FISHERY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of an interdisciplinary model that analyzes the effects of resource management decisions on New Mexico fishery production, yield, sportfishing effort, and economic benefit to anglers. The model recreates river flows and materials transported through reservoirs and their tailwaters from 1974 through 1987. Solar radiation, water temperature, phosphorus, nitrogen, suspended solids, and water exchange rates determine primary production. Organic loads from watershed sources, added to primary production, form a trophic base for sportfish forage. Fish production is partitioned into biomass and growth of each age class in sportfish and forage fish groups by differential responses to food type, light, water-level fluctuation and predation. Fish biomass, with angler population distribution and site condition, contributes to determining angler effort and economic benefits. Model users can vary and analyze water level and quality, stocking, fishing regulations, site access, site facilities, and site entry fees. The model (on floppy disks with a user manual) is available for operation on MS DOS compatible computers with a hard disk. Contact R. M. Wilson, NMGF, State Capitol, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 87503.     

INTEGRATING SOCIAL ANALYSIS INTO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: SOME EMERGING TRENDS IN THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT: While federal water resources laws and regulations require social analysis, no one workable formula exists for integrating it into water resources planning. Two primary problems in integrating social analysis into planning are examined; making trade-offs between policy acceptability and theoretical competence, and managing social analysis in planning. For illustration, the article builds on emerging trends within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It concludes by observing that creative application of social theory to policy problems along with innovative data gathering techniques are the primary routes to managing these problems.     

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF URBAN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT. This paper will present a total water quality-quantity management approach which has incorporated the costs of water pollution control and water treatment, the benefits of water-based activities, and the trade-off between low flow augmentation and water quality improvement in its consideration. The analytical framework is based on the decomposition procedures provided by dynamic programming within which the optimal management plans are developed.     

THEORY AND REALITY IN ALLOCATING FEDERAL RESOURCES TO WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Federal spending on water resource development projects exceeds $10 billion annually. This paper examines the economic theory and practice on which the Federal water resource development plans are based. Existing theoretical and applied problems result in overinvestment. These include 1) no standard of value for the tradeoff of environmental objectives with economic objectives; 2) benefits based on “willingness to pay,” but beneficiaries pay only a fraction of a project's costs; 3) beneficiaries “shop around” among program purposes in order to reduce their commitments; and 4) benefit/cost (B/C) analyses are based on a discount rate, which is consistently below the Federal borrowing rate. Furthermore, the Government Accounting Office (GAO) frequently finds that the agency regulations are inadequate and result in inconsistent and questionable benefit computations. The President has proposed a series of water policy reforms, to reduce some of the apparent overinvestment in water resource development, but fundmental corrective action rests with the members of Congress.     

APPLICATIONS OF A GIS FOR MODELING THE SENSITIVITY OF WATER RESOURCES TO ALTERATIONS IN CLIMATE IN THE GUNNISON RIVER BASIN,COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: The Gunnison River drains a mountainous basin in western Colorado, and is a large contributor of water to the Colorado River. As part of a study to assess water resource sensitivity to alterations in climate in the Gunnison River basin, climatic and hydrologic processes are being modeled. A geographic information system (GIS) is being used in this study as a link between data and modelers - serving as a common data base for project personnel with differing specialties, providing a means to investigate the effects of scale on model results, and providing a framework for the transfer of parameter values among models. Specific applications presented include: (1) developing elevation grids for a precipitation model from digital elevation model (DEM) point-elevation values, and visualizing the effects of grid resolution on model results; (2) using a GIS to facilitate the definition and parameterization of a distributed-parameters, watershed model in multiple basins; and (3) nesting atmospheric and hydrologic models to produce possible scenarios of climate change.     

A FUZZY SETS MODEL FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Mathematical modeling of complex water resources System problems, particularly water pollution control, is aided by fizzy set theory. Public participation in large scale federally funded water resources and pollution control projects is now a federal requirement and practice of various planning agencies. However, no systems based model for quantifying and measuring the effectiveness of public participation is known to exist. In this paper, we report a fuzzy set based model developed for doing this in areawide water resources planning The model is essentially cascade in nature and employs the concepts of fuzzy pessimistic and optimistic aggregations to cluster and analyze the evaluations of the basic factors. Sample computations of the model are provided.     

A PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE FOR DEVELOPING ISOHYETS IN AN ARID AREA USING VEGETATION AND TOPOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS1

A technique is presented for developing an isohyet map for the Hualapai Valley, a closed hydrologic basin of about 315 square miles in the northwestern Great Basin in Nevada. In this basin there is practically no climatic data, and in the northwest Great Basin there are too few stations for determination of rainfall on a detailed basis. Using a vegetational typing to represent a range in elevation and precipitation, an initial mean annual rainfall is determined for selected points on a grid pattern. This rainfall is then modified by using topographic parameters of slope, orientation, exposure, and rainfall shadow effect. The resulting point determinations of mean annual rainfall are then smoothed using a trend surface analysis, and an isohyetal map is drawn from the smoothed points. The technique provides an estimated accuracy of one inch of mean annual precipitation and one mile of resolution on isohyets.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PLAN OF STUDY – AN INTERAGENCY APPROACH TO MULTIOBJECTIVE PLANNING AND EVALUATION OF WATER AND LAND RESOURCE USE1

ABSTRACT The paper presents a systems approach for planning and evaluating alternative plans for resource use incorporating the concepts of multiobjective planning and evaluation (MOPE). The need for multidisciplinary input and strong interagency cooperation in planning for resource use is related to the logical and orderly completion of the planning steps. The paper briefly describes MOPE, emphasizing two important concepts: (1) the relationship of the study problems and objectives to national social objectives, and (2) the display of alternative solutions showing tradeoffs. Several important characteristics of a plan of study which implements MOPE are presented and discussed. A proposed MOPE analytical system is discussed in detail. The MOPE analytical system is divided into eight interdependent subsystems that describe data collection, use, analysis, and results. A linear program (L.P.) model is proposed to analyze the present and future demand relationships for natural resources. The model will also evaluate the interaction of agriculture, forestry, and recreation with the resource base of the basin, considering National Economic Development, Environmental Quality, and Regional Development.