A REGIONAL APPROACH TO PROJECT EVALUATION1

ABSTRACT. Water and related land resource planning has generally been characterized by project evaluation in isolation. Feasible alternatives have been ignored because the economic analysis did not include the interdependence of such subregional and regional variables as factor and product prices and production possibilities. This paper presents an economic framework, consistent with a regional development objective and an efficiency criterion, for proposing and evaluating resource projects. Subregional and regional derived demand curves for water are developed under alternative assumptions of subregional competition, regional market restraints, and yield and price uncertainty. The derivation of water demand curves using the proposed regional framework as compared to sub regional isolation has the desirable properties of (1) a marginal analysis that is more flexible over time is substituted for a static average analysis; (2) range estimates incorporating probabilities are substituted for point estimates; (3) approximations to functional demand curves are substituted for “needs”; and (4) fewer resources are required to meet a regional market restraint.     

THE ENHANCED ROLE OF WATER CONSERVATION IN THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER PROJECTS1

The concept of water conservation has increased in importance because of revisions in the rules and procedures for performing cost-benefit analyses of federal water projects. These revisions include a requirement that nonstructural and water conservation measures be incorporated into economic assessments of projects. Project analyses will now proceed as if water supplies were allocated “most effectively,” that is, to their highest valued uses. A related requirement provides that the net benefits of any project should now be valued using willingness to pay measures. A specific cost-benefit methodology accommodating the revisions is constructed and discussed. Informational requirements for applying this methodology are identified. In addition to being consistent with federal mandates, this technique offers important advantages over the traditional “requirements” approach to water supply planning.     

DESIRED AND ACHIEVED OUTCOMES IN FEDERAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT Local or project level planning occurs within most federal water resources programs. Such planning involves both federal and local participants, and commonly involves a range of interest groups. It is necessary to know what goals these participants believe the planning process ought to achieve in order to design planning procedures which will meet their expectations. Social judgment analysis was used to elicit those goals for respondents who had participated in one of five different federal water resources programs, in one of five different roles. Respondents also evaluated the extent to which the planning activities in a recent project in which they had participated had actually attained the posited goals. The respondents believed that responsiveness to local problems was significantly more important than resolving conflicts or increasing public understanding. A fourth goal, achieving national objectives, was believed to be less important than the other three. No significant differences in these goal evaluations were associated with the type of program in which the respondents had participated. However, there were significant differences associated with the respondent's role in the planning process. Respondents' ratings of the effectiveness of actual planning projects varied by both program and respondent role.     

WATER CONSTRAINTS ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The pressure on water resources from energy resource development and transformation is likely to be greater in the future than it has been in the past. A rational resolution of the political problems that this situation will generate requires that: 1) planning based on predictions of future energy supply and demand be replaced by scenario, or “what if?” analysis; 2) full attention be paid to the uncertainties in per-unit-energy water requirements; 3) suitable stochastic measures of water availability be used to compare water supply with water demand; 4) realistic ecological criteria, and other alternative use criteria, be developed for estimating impacts of water withdrawn or consurned for energy development; 5) human consequences of ecological impaccts are described in a manner that will allow the political process to intervene in an optimum manner to allocate water resources.     

CONSERVATION PRACTICES AND ATTITUDES AMONG MARYLAND WATER SUPPLY MANAGERS1

ABSTRACT: In addition to offsetting water supply shortages, water conservation is recognized as serving many purposes, ranging from reduced energy consumption to lower capital costs. Since the discussion of these benefits has been a recent development and has generally excluded local water supply managers, a question arises as to whether supply managers are implementing conservation programs to exploit these benefits. A survey of the managers at 35 Maryland water utilities provides insight into the prevailing attitude toward conservation in a water rich eastern state. The results indicate that most managers continue to view conservation only as a short term response to temporary supply shortages. Only 12 Maryland utilities have undertaken any form of water conservation activity and just two systems have ongoing, comprehensive conservation programs. Institutional, perceptual, economic, political, and time constraints all contribute to the managers’attitudes and general inaction. If water conservation is to be widely practiced, these issues must be addressed and the benefits attributed to conservation must be better documented and articulated to supply managers.     

PERCEIVED WATER QUALITY AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL HOMES1

ABSTRACT: The impact of degraded water quality on the value of seasonal homes adjacent to St. Albans Bay on Lake Champaign in northern Vermont is estimated using hedonic price functions. The Value of properties located adjacent to the bay are depressed by about 20 percent, or $4,500 on average, compared with similar nearby properties on the larger but cleaner lake. Water quality degradation resulted in decressed property values of approximately two million dollars in the area surrounding the Bay.     

THE EFFECTS OF AGE AND WATER FLUCTUATIONS ON FISH POPULATIONS1

ABSTRACT Two lakes having similar soil types were studied to determine the effects of age and water fluctuations on plankton, benthos and fish populations. Bluff Lake is an older man-made lake which is drawn down in the mid-summer. Oktibbeha County Lake is a young lake and the water levels are maintained. Chemistry data from the two lakes indicate that their chemical properties are very similar. Neither lake would be considered very fertile. Net plankton populations in Bluff Lake and Oktibbeha County Lake were comparable when analyzed on a number of organisms per liter basis. Fluctuations of water levels did not seem to have an effect on the net plankton populations. The benthic population in Bluff Lake is slightly higher than that found in Oktibbeha County Lake. This is true for both numbers and weight per square meter. The species composition of benthic organisms in the two lakes were similar. Based on one-acre samples from each lake, Bluff Lake has a more balanced fish population than does Oktibbeha County Lake. Neither, however, seems to support populations of game fish in which a high percentage of these are in the available or harvestable range. Both lakes contain high populations of gizzard shad.     

APPLICATION OF CRITICAL PATH METHOD TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. The task of resource management, in this case water resources, is rapidly becoming more complex, particularly because decision making is often contingent upon various prior activities and sets of data. Comprehensive planning is required in order to prevent misallocation of resources or mismanagement in resource development. Such planning involves five general phases which are applicable to any problem faced by society: (1) problem identification; (2) formulation of alternatives; (3) evaluation of alternatives; (4) implementation; (5) review. There have been many attempts to simplify the planning process and effectively carry out these five phases. The experience of the Alberta Water Resources Division has been that the Critical Path Method is one of the most useful tools available today for planning. It involves two basic steps: (1) preparation of a network diagram which (a) identifies all the activities necessary for the completion of a project, (b) correctly sequences these activities, (c) allocates resources; and (2) mathematical computations for scheduling the activities. In other words, this approach breaks a task down into smaller units or activities for easier organization, scheduling, and performance for eventual completion of the project. This paper will illustrate the effectiveness of the Critical Path Method by discussing its application to actual water resources projects.     

ECONOMICS AND FEDERAL WATER PROJECTS1

While the science of economics is widely used in Federal water resource development projects, the usual procedure of applying an analytical discipline to arrive at a conclusion is reversed. The “answer” is usually provided ahead of time and economics is assigned the task of justifying the preconceived conclusion. This leads to a series of mitigatory effects in which economics as a science is not allowed to freely function. This article attempts to illustrate some of these “unusual” uses of economics in Federal water projects and note the “answers” we would logically expect from the economic discipline. Even though the theory of economics is often subverted, there are positive aspects to the role of economics in evaluating Federal water projects.     

MODELING AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR PLANNING DECISIONS IN WATER RESOURCES EXPANSION1

ABSTRACT. Individuals and organizations concerned with the expansion of the facilities of a river basin (such as a river basin authority) need to determine optimal strategies of operation and capital investment. They also need to examine the sensitivity of whatever planning decisions are contemplated. This paper extends the applicability of an algorithm that had been previously applied to the deterministic river-basin expansion problem to include the feature of a sensitivity analysis. The algorithm, containing a partial enumeration search technique and a network analysis code, gave a construction sequence of reservoirs, canals, and treatment plants, and an operating policy that maximized the present value of net earnings consistent with certain underlying assumptions. A river basin was chosen that had an existing configuration of unregulated streams and rivers, reservoirs, canals and treatment plants, and sites for future additional facilities. A series of representative synthetic flow sequences, future demand profiles, interest rates and reservoir costs that served as inputs to or parameters in the system were each perturbed by various factors (for a total of 24 cases). The sensitivity studies showed that the immediate planning decision of what facility to construct next was insensitive to variations in future demands and costs and independent of later decisions. Thus, decision-making was adaptive in the sense that by always making the optimal proximate decision, the management of the river basin is optimized.     

ADAPTATION TO ARIDITY: WATER DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA1

ABSTRACT The Republic of South Africa, legatee of a three-century history of recurring drought, is firmly committed to a program of the optimum use of its water for the national benefit. Its water law encourages centralized planning in that water is held to be the property of the state and is assignable without requiring acquiescence by the basin or province of origin. Interbasin diversions from the Tugela River to the Vaal River Basin, from the Orange River to the Fish and Sundays River Basins, and from several basins to Cape Town are under construction as are facilities for water importation from Lesotho and Angola. For satisfaction of demands beyond the year 2000 the nation may depend increasingly on a shift of its power production and water-using industry from the coal fields of the central plateau to nuclear power development with associated desalination along its coasts. Alternatively, and preferably, it may cooperate in a co-prosperity bloc in Southern Africa aiding the economies of its neighbors by development for mutual advantage of the water and power resources of the Okavango and other northern rivers.     

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY IN A NEW JERSEY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT. New Jersey, together with other states in the northeast, was stricken with drought during 1961-66. The effect of this drought was most severe in the northern part of the State. The water quality of the Passaic River, which drains the urban, industrialized northeast, perhaps deteriorated the most among the major drainage systems. This river system is used as a raw-water source by 10 water suppliers. The impact of the drought upon the water supply of the Passaic Valley Water Commission, the most downstream of the basin's suppliers, which supplies an average of about 90 million gallons a day to more than 650,000 persons, is evaluated herein. The drought's impact on the raw-water quality is appraised by the comparison of before-and-after qualities of dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, biochemical-oxygen demand, turbidity, and hardness. For example, at the worst point during the drought, monthly average dissolved-solids content in the raw water were about 210 percent, hardness, about 167 percent, and biochemical-oxygen demand about 270 percent higher than antecedent values. In general, the study concludes that the drought produced a deterioration in both raw and finished water quality, and is estimated to have increased chemical-treatment costs during the drought by about $650,000.     

CAPITAL COSTS OF RURAL WATER SYSTEMS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: In the last two decades the federal government has provided substantial capital to construct rural water distribution systems. Loans at subsidized interest rates and front-end grants through the Farmers Home Administration have been the main source of this capital. Recent federal policy redirections have reduced substantially the availability of grants and subsidized loans. Because of design and material differences, capital cost estimates from urban systems are not uniformly applicable to rural water services. This study presents an econometric analysis of capital costs, using Illinois rural water system construction contract bids. Cost equations by systems components representing 90 percent of capital costs are estimated. The type of information developed here can be used in initial planning and optimization design models contributing to the efficient provision of rural water services.     

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

IMPACTS OF SILVICULTURE ON FLATWOODS RUNOFF,WATER QUALITY,AND NUTRIENT BUDGETS1

ABSTRACT: Three forest watersheds were isolated by roads in poorly drained flatwoods of Florida. After 12 months of baseline calibration the forest in one watershed was harvested and regenerated with minimum disturbance, in the second watershed with maximum disturbance from common practices, and in the third watershed left intact as a control. Water yields from the maximum treatments increased a significant 250 percent while that from the minimum treatments increased 117 percent as compared to the control. Weed vegetation remaining after the minimum treatment continued significant water use. The water yield increases lasted only for one year. Water quality was reduced by both treatments with the most effect immediately after the maximum disturbance. Absolute levels of suspended sediments, potassium, and calcium remained relatively low. The maximum treatment caused significant changes in net cation balances only for one year. The information shows relative little effect of silvicultural practices in flatwoods on water quality as compared to data from upland forests. Water yield increases may be manipulated by the degree of harvest and weed control practices.     

WATER QUALITY PREDICTION WITHIN AN INTERBASIN TRANSFER SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT A methodology for predicting the spatial and temporal levels of conservative water quality constituents within a multibasin water resource system is presented. Dissolved solids, sulfates, and chlorides are the constituents used during this investigation; however, any other conservative ion or mineral can be incorporated into the simulation model. The methodology is tested on the proposed Texas Water System. The water quality model, QNET-I, utilizes monthly canal and river flows and reservoir storage levels calculated by the Texas Water Development Board's systems simulation model. Discharge-concentration relationships are developed for each source of water in the system, including significant waste-water discharges. Reservoirs in the system are assumed to be completely mixed with respect to conservative constituents. A mass balance analysis is performed for each node and each month during the simulation period. The output from the water quality simulation is a table of the concentrations of the conservative water quality constituents at each demand point in the system and in each reservoir and canal for every month the system is in operation. The desired quality of the water at the demand locations is used to determine the economic utility of transporting and mixing water from various sources.     

ON THE NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR A LONG-TERM IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT. Salinization and water logging have been the nemesis of irrigated agriculture societies since Babylonian times. Low quality water substitutes for high quality water for irrigation at an increasing rate up to the limits of the soil's ability to transmit the additional water and remove excess salts from the root zone. Soil transmissibility can be increased by additional investment in drainage ditches and underground tile. Low valued-high salt tolerant crops can be substituted for higher valued-salt sensitive crops to maintain production in areas served by irrigation water sources of deteriorating quality. Thus physical factors specify the necessary conditions for survival of an irrigated agriculture. The sufficient conditions for survival must be in terms of a positive net income in each subplanning period discounted to its present value.     

IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSUMPTION OF AN INCREASING RATE STRUCTURE1

ABSTRACT: A two-step procedure is used to estimate the impact of an increasing rate structure on residential water use. An error components regression procedure is used to estimate demand relationships for a period prior to the rate change. Water use is predicted for the post rate change period, assuming that the rate structure was not changed. Comparison of actual with predicted use indicate that water use declined as a result of the imposition of the increasing rate structure.     

EMERGING CONCEPTS FOR THE CONDUCT OF STATE WATER RESOURES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The development of water resources planning at the state level is discussed. Although there are significant specific differences among state planning programs, some common general principles of state water resources planning are emerging over time. In the interest of reconciling conflict over water allocation states are engaged in policy clarification, mediation of interst group conflict, and provision of baseline information.