Governance baselines as a basis for adaptive marine spatial planning

A marine spatial planning (MSP) initiative—if to be successful—has to be rooted in a thorough understanding of the tradition and structures of the governance system in the area targeted for the initiative. After decades of a mainly sectoral approach towards maritime affairs, governments began to recognised the need for a governance framework that applies a more integrated approach to maritime policy. The new Integrated Maritime Policy of the European Union is only one example for such a changed way of policy and decision making. The assembly of a governance baseline can help to identify the crucial hindering and success factors for the implementation of MSP. A governance baseline has two parts. Part One focuses upon the past and current performance of the governance system as it has responded—or failed to respond—to changes in the condition of ecosystems in a specific locale. Part Two of a baseline outlines a strategic approach to the design of a new program and records the goals, objectives and strategies of MSP implementation. Focus on both governance processes and their outcomes is essential and forms the core justification for documenting governance responses to ecosystem change.     

Variation at local scales need not impede tests for broader scale patterns

Ecologists are not always mindful of the constraints imposed by their scale of observation and sometimes prematurely attempt broad generalisations or become mesmerised by local details depending on their predilections. We specifically chose a character that is known for its local and unpredictable variation (morphology of kelp) to test the effect of scale on our ability to determine spatial patterns. We compared the morphology of Ecklonia radiata between monospecific and mixed stands of canopy-forming algae across temperate Australia (>5,100 km coastal distance) within a hierarchy of several spatial scales. While E. radiata specimens were generally larger in monospecific than in mixed stands, we failed to observe differences in morphology between stands at many sites and locations. Despite substantial local variation, differences between stands became increasingly clear at broader scales. The frequency of inconsistent differences between stands was greatest at local scales (sites separated by kms), intermediate at intermediate scales (locations separated by 100s of kms) and least at regional scales (regions separated by 1,000s of kms). These observations support the idea that large scale patterns can emerge from apparent stochasticity at small scales, and that unaccountable variation at local scales need not impede tests for similar patterns at broader scales. Most ecologists work at scales where complexity tends to be greatest (i.e. local) and is likely to be explained by special and unique events. It is encouraging, therefore, to observe that patterns can emerge from complexity at local scales to provide new opportunities to answer some of the more interesting questions about the relative importance of processes across the vast parts of the worlds coast.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Search costs influence the spatial distribution,but not the level,of extra-pair mating in tree swallows

Costs of searching for a mate are an important component of models of sexual selection, yet they have rarely been examined in wild populations of vertebrates. In this paper, we report an experiment in which we handicapped female tree swallows by clipping some flight feathers. This manipulation increased the costs of flight and searching for extra-pair mates. Despite these costs, handicapped females had the same level of extra-pair mating (percentage of extra-pair young, percentage of broods with extra-pair young, and the number of extra-pair sires per brood) as control females. However, handicapped females were more likely to have young sired by extra-pair males that lived closer to her nest than control females. This change in the distribution of extra-pair mating was most likely due to female choice rather than male coercion, and it suggests that extra-pair mating has significant benefits to females. One important implication of our study is that ecological and social factors that influence search costs could affect the spatial distribution of extra-pair sires and, consequently, the intensity of sexual selection. These effects may have been overlooked in previous studies that did not identify extra-pair sires.     

Can variations in the spatial distribution at sea and isotopic niche width be associated with consistency in the isotopic niche of a pelagic seabird species?

This study tested for fluctuations on short-term consistency (within about 1 month) in the isotopic niche of a pelagic seabird species. Short-term consistency in the isotopic niche was assessed using a wide-ranging apex predator, the Cory’s shearwaters Calonectris diomedea, along a 3-year study (2010–2012), during both the pre-laying and chick-rearing periods, with markedly inter- and intra-annual differences in the foraging spatial distribution at sea and isotopic niche width. We used individual movement data and stable isotope data, analysed using recent metrics based in a Bayesian framework, of 69 adults breeding on a small neritic island in the North Atlantic (39°24′N, 009°30′W). As expected, our results confirm that isotopic niche expansion could arise via increased variation in spatial distribution at sea among individuals. Results suggest fluctuations on short-term consistency in the isotopic niche of Cory’s shearwaters related to their different foraging patterns among periods and, ultimately, to presumably temporal changes in the availability and predictability of food resources. Short-term consistency in the isotopic niche was higher and persistent during periods when the population showed an intermediate isotopic niche width and absent when isotopic niche was either smaller or larger during the study period. These results suggest that consistency in the isotopic niche is an important characteristic of this population during the breeding period that may fluctuate depending on resources availability and should be important to understand the dynamics of foraging ecology of pelagic seabirds in general.     

A method for building spatial model of annual weed seed dispersal from experimental data and its application to simulating Bromus sterilis population dispersal

Spatial model of annual weed seed dispersal, in this article, was theoretically derived. According to the requirements of building the spatial model, we designed and done an indoor experiment of weed seed dispersal by wind. In the experiment, the seeds of Bromus sterilis were released at 100 cm height under different wind velocity conditions. Based on the experimental data, the spatial models of seed dispersal of the weed species were built, which were divided into three types according to the coefficient β < 0, β = 0, β > 0. The results showed that dispersal of annual weed seed in any direction obeyed an approximate Gaussian distribution; under the experimental conditions, spatial distribution type of weed seed dispersal changed with variation of wind velocity. Well-known Howard et al.'s model (Howard et al., 1991) of Bromus sterilis seed dispersal is an especial example of the model built in this article. The result of model analysis indicated that the distribution type described by Howard's model was similar to that of seed dispersal of the weed species at the height of 100 cm under the condition of lower wind velocity (about 2.18 m/s). Using CA simulation analysis we found that mean control agent applying to a cell with weed should have a decrease with an increase of wind velocity to prevent weed with the initial configuration from spreading, which implicated less herbicide needs spraying in every cell with weed on average when wind velocity increases.     

A geostatistical approach for mapping thematic classification accuracy and evaluating the impact of inaccurate spatial data on ecological model predictions

Spatial information in the form of geographical information system coverages and remotely sensed imagery is increasingly used in ecological modeling. Examples include maps of land cover type from which ecologically relevant properties, such as biomass or leaf area index, are derived. Spatial information, however, is not error-free: acquisition and processing errors, as well as the complexity of the physical processes involved, make remotely sensed data imperfect measurements of ecological attributes. It is therefore important to first assess the accuracy of the spatial information being used and then evaluate the impact of such inaccurate information on ecological model predictions. In this paper, the role of geostatistics for mapping thematic classification accuracy through integration of abundant image-derived (soft) and sparse higher accuracy (hard) class labels is presented. Such assessment leads to local indices of map quality, which can be used for guiding additional ground surveys. Stochastic simulation is proposed for generating multiple alternative realizations (maps) of the spatial distribution of the higher accuracy class labels over the study area. All simulated realizations are consistent with the available pieces of information (hard and soft labels) up to their validated level of accuracy. The simulated alternative class label representations can be used for assessing joint spatial accuracy, i.e., classification accuracy regarding entire spatial features read from the thematic map. Such realizations can also serve as input parameters to spatially explicit ecological models; the resulting distribution of ecological responses provides a model of uncertainty regarding the ecological model prediction. A case study illustrates the generation of alternative land cover maps for a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) subscene, and the subsequent construction of local map quality indices. Simulated land cover maps are then input into a biogeochemical model for assessing uncertainty regarding net primary production (NPP).     

PyLUR: Efficient software for land use regression modeling the spatial distribution of air pollutants using GDAL/OGR library in Python

• PyLUR comprises four modules for developing and applying a LUR model. • It considers both conventional and novel potential predictor variables. • GDAL/OGR libraries are used to do spatial analysis in the modeling and prediction. • Developed on Python platform, PyLUR is rather efficient in data processing. Land use regression (LUR) models have been widely used in air pollution modeling. This regression-based approach estimates the ambient pollutant concentrations at un-sampled points of interest by considering the relationship between ambient concentrations and several predictor variables selected from the surrounding environment. Although conceptually quite simple, its successful implementation requires detailed knowledge of the area, expertise in GIS, statistics, and programming skills, which makes this modeling approach relatively inaccessible to novice users. In this contribution, we present a LUR modeling and pollution-mapping software named PyLUR. It uses GDAL/OGR libraries based on the Python platform and can build a LUR model and generate pollutant concentration maps efficiently. This self-developed software comprises four modules: a potential predictor variable generation module, a regression modeling module, a model validation module, and a prediction and mapping module. The performance of the newly developed PyLUR is compared to an existing LUR modeling software called RLUR (with similar functions implemented on R language platform) in terms of model accuracy, processing efficiency and software stability. The results show that PyLUR out-performs RLUR for modeling in the Bradford and Auckland case studies examined. Furthermore, PyLUR is much more efficient in data processing and it has a capability to handle detailed GIS input data.     

Geochemical provenance and spatial distribution of fluoride in groundwater of Mayo Tsanaga River Basin, Far North Region, Cameroon: implications for incidence of fluorosis and optimal consumption dose

The 500,000 inhabitants of Mayo Tsanaga River Basin are vulnerable to a “silent” fluorosis from groundwater consumption. For the first time, the groundwater is investigated for the purpose of identifying the provenance of fluoride and estimating an optimal dose of fluoride in the study area. Based on the fluoride content of groundwater, fluorine and major oxides abundances in rocks from the study area, mean annual atmospheric temperature, and on-site diagnosis of fluorosis in children, the following results and conclusions are obtained: Fluoride concentration in groundwater ranges from 0.19 to 15.2 mg/l. Samples with fluoride content of <1.5 mg/l show Ca–HCO₃ signatures, while those with fluoride >1.5 mg/l show a tendency towards Na-HCO₃ type. Fluor-apatite and micas in the granites were identified as the main provenance of fluoride in the groundwater through water-rock interactions in an alkaline medium. The optimal fluoride dose in drinking water of the study area should be 0.7 mg/l, and could be adjusted downward to a level of 0.6 mg/l due to the high consumption rate of groundwater, especially during drier periods.     

Invasion by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Artocarpus heterophyllus</Emphasis> (Moraceae) in an island in the Atlantic Forest Biome,Brazil: distribution at the landscape level,density and need for control

Invasion by alien species is one of the most critical factors affecting global biodiversity, leading to homogenization and species loss worldwide. Jackfruit (Artocarpus heterophyllus Lam., Moraceae) is one of the most conspicuous invasive plants in Brazil. We studied jackfruit invasion in the Atlantic Forest in Ilha Grande State Park, located on an island (Ilha Grande), by assessing jackfruit distribution and density along 23 trails (90 km). Presence or absence was verified in a total of 857 plots. Data showed that jackfruit is spread all over Ilha Grande, and that plant density varied significantly along and between trails. Jackfruit was registered as the dominant tree species on some of the trails. Control by park managers is an urgent need in order to ensure the conservation of local biodiversity. A decision key for jackfruit management according to jackfruit density, age class and slope is provided.