面向灾害后果的应急预案体系启动模式

按照我国应急响应机制,某地区发生突发事件后,根据灾害后果不同需要启动不同的预案体系。通过灾害后果的系统分析,研究了预案体系的启动机制,梳理了预案体系的演化模式,从演化时间维度建立了预案体系点、链、网3种启动模式,并系统分析了各启动模式及其相应的结构特征。最后,通过实例说明了预案体系的3种启动模式。研究结论有利于预案体系的合理启动,提高了突发事件应对的有效性,为应急预案体系的启动决策提供了理论支持。     

突发事件发展演化研究述评

突发事件演化是指事件发生后,在其与所处的自然和社会环境的各种因素相互作用下,进而引发起其它突发事件,最终形成了事件链或事件网络。通过分析和总结近年来关于突发事件演化的相关研究,将其划分为3种主要研究类型进行概述:基于生命周期的演化阶段研究、演化模式及演化分析方法研究。研究发现,当前突发事件演化研究面临以下问题和挑战:微观层面分析不够深入、缺少有效的量化分析、与社会系统相互作用的分析不够,最后指出了未来研究趋势。     

冰雪灾害危机事件演化及衍生链特征分析

运用复杂网络的相关理论知识,在冰雪灾害危机事件演化机理研究的基础上对冰雪灾害危机事件演化构成和衍生链特征进行了分析.以2008年冰雪灾害危机事件演化为例将冰雪灾害危机事件演化划分为4种类型,构建了冰雪灾害危机事件演化的网络结构.在此基础上总结了冰雪灾害危机事件衍生链的特征,并对冰雪灾害危机事件演化特征进行了分析,为控制冰雪灾害危机事件的演化提供了理论依据.     

论黄土地质灾害链（一）

近年来,“西部大开发”、“一带一路”等国家战略在黄土高原陆续实施,这些新型人类营力与水和黄土相互作用,导致黄土灾害链生效应明显,形成了复杂的黄土地质灾害链。作为当前黄土地质灾害领域研究的热点新命题,黄土地质灾害链带来的灾害效应具有隐蔽性更深、影响范围更广、破坏性更强的特点。本文综合考量黄土地质灾害链本身的属性,查清了灾害链的基本类型。根据各个灾种之间演化关系,总结了灾害链的启动模式与演化模式。在此基础上分析了黄土界面与黄土地质灾害链的互馈过程,探讨了灾害链中土体状态变化过程,进一步阐明灾害链的链生演化过程。研究成果有助于加深认识黄土地质灾害链转化模式与演化规律。     

突发事件连锁反应的实证研究——以2008年初我国南方冰雪灾害为例

从突发事件连锁反应分析,认为2008年初我国南方的冰雪灾害是由自然灾害引发的连锁反应事件。选择了新浪网冰雪灾害报道专题的近4 000篇报道作为数据源,从时间、空间和事件角度揭示了此次冰雪灾害的演化过程,并分析了事件扩散的原因。     

极端气候事件及重大灾害事件演化研究进展

随着全球变化的加剧,极端气候事件及重大灾害事件的演化与发展过程成为灾害研究的热点问题之一。在梳理和分析极端气候事件演化研究相关文献的基础上,主要从演化阶段、演化方式、演化分析方法三方面对已有的研究成果进行归纳总结,并重点阐述了用于辨析灾害事件复杂演化结构与耦合关系的多维度研究方法——复杂网络(Complex Network)在极端气候事件演化分析中的应用。综述发现,当前极端气候事件演化研究面临以下问题和挑战:要重视极端气候事件演化的复杂性和整体性,加强极端气候事件演化的定量分析,加强极端气候事件与社会系统“转入-转出”的机理研究。     

我国北方城市暴雨灾害演化过程及风险分析

提出一种基于灾害演化网络的风险分析方法,针对城市暴雨灾害的演化过程进行了风险分析。利用复杂网络理论构建北方城市暴雨灾害演化网络模型,将危机事件分为三个等级,并探讨了事件级别和出入度的关系;分析城市暴雨灾害链演化特点和暴雨危机事件后果蔓延规律,得到关键危机事件和演化链。结果表明,交通堵塞是我国北方城市暴雨灾害系统中关键危机事件;暴雨灾害演化系统存在短链、长直链和循环链三种结构,其中循环链中的危机事件互为因果,可自行激化,是灾害演化网络控制的关键结构。     

温带风暴潮灾害链的识别与区分--以莱州湾风暴潮为例

我国温带风暴潮灾害主要集中在渤海、黄海沿岸,其中莱州湾沿岸是频繁发生的重灾区。以识别莱州湾沿岸发生的温带风暴潮灾害链的组成为研究目标,通过2次典型灾害事件分析了温带风暴潮灾害的成因、发生及其演化规律等问题,进而识别了温带风暴潮灾害链发生过程中的灾害类别及相应致灾因子,根据致灾过程提出了5种灾害链条,最后区分了不同行业灾害损失中主要致灾因子的作用。研究结果可对温带风暴潮灾害链的预警及减灾工作提供决策支持。     

黄土水力侵蚀-滑坡-泥流灾害链的研究现状

黄土主要分布于西北黄土高原地区,因其具水敏性、湿陷性、结构性,极易诱发地质灾害。因黄土特性诱发的原生灾害及其引起的次生灾害组成的灾害序列往往存在时间上先后顺序,空间上彼此相依,成因上相互关联的灾害链式关系。灾害链一旦发展演化,致灾能力极强,致灾规模极大。本文通过分析黄土水力侵蚀-滑坡-泥流灾害链的链式结构、演化机理及条件、防治措施等研究现状,阐述了黄土水力侵蚀-滑坡-泥流灾害链的诱因、演化机理及放大效应等。对黄土地区地质灾害链的研究趋势进行展望,并提出大致的研究思路以期为后续的灾害链研究提供科学建议。旨在找寻合理有效的工程措施,以求能降低灾害的发生概率及破坏能力。     

基于灾害演化网络的灾害裂痕分析方法研究

考虑到某一灾害事件可能会由多种源发灾害事件相互耦合作用造成,且次生灾害事件的演化过程可显著反映出整个灾害事件演化情况,通过引入"初始灾害事件"、"耦合灾害事件"等概念,并基于灾害演化网络,提出了灾害裂痕分析方法,进一步将该方法应用于2008年汶川8.0级地震灾害演化的分析中,从灾害裂痕范围和灾害裂纹深度两个维度分析了灾害演化的机理及其整体情况,最后总结出灾害裂痕分析方法的作用及意义,对开展防灾减灾及应急处置等工作起到一定的指导作用。     

Behavioural,emotional, and cognitive responses in European disasters: results of survivor interviews

In the European multi‐centre study BeSeCu (Behaviour, Security, Culture), interviews were conducted in seven countries to explore survivors’ emotional, behavioural, and cognitive responses during disasters. Interviews, either in groups or one‐to‐one, were convened according to type of event: collapse of a building; earthquake; fire; flood; and terror attack. The content analysis of interviews resulted in a theoretical framework, describing the course of the events, behavioural responses, and the emotional and cognitive processing of survivors. While the environmental cues and the ability to recognise what was happening varied in different disasters, survivors’ responses tended to be more universal across events, and most often were adaptive and non‐selfish. Several peri‐traumatic factors related to current levels of post‐traumatic stress were identified, while memory quantity did not differ as a function of event type or post‐traumatic stress. Time since the event had a minor effect on recall. Based on the findings, several suggestions for emergency training are made.     

基于交通的城市突发事件分级及响应措施研究

突发事件分级是事故信息报送和分级处置的依据,在分析已有的突发事件分级标准的基础上,考虑突发事件救援的交通保障,从突发事件的紧急程度和交通的便捷程度两个方面,提出了突发事件分级标准及相应的交通响应措施。     

超网络上突发事件的信息传播模式构建

随着突发事件的发生频率不断增高,事件种类也不断增多,如何防范与应对已成为当前面临的最重要问题之一。超网络是高于又超于现存网络的网络,它可以用来描述和表示各种网络之间的相互作用和影响。在韦斯特利—麦克莱恩传播模式的基础上,建立了超网络模型上的突发事件的信息传播模式,并提出了突发事件的应对策略。     

Cyclone preparedness and response: an analysis of lessons identified using an adapted military planning framework

The United Kingdom uses the Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) framework to analyse and understand the key components and costs of a military capability. Rooted in the Resource Based View (RBV) of a firm, an adapted DLOD approach is employed to explore, analyse and discuss the preparedness, planning and response strategies of two markedly different countries (Australia and Bangladesh) when faced with a major cyclone event of a comparable size. Given the numerous similarities in the challenges facing military forces in a complex emergency and humanitarian agencies in a natural disaster, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the DLOD framework as an analysis and planning tool in the cyclone preparedness planning and response phases, and more broadly within the disaster management area. In addition, the paper highlights the benefit to disaster managers, policymakers and researchers of exploiting comparative cross-learning opportunities from disaster events, drawn from different sectors and countries.     

Examining the CDCynergy Event Assessment Tool: an investigation of the anthrax crisis in Boca Raton, Florida

This paper examines the dependability of the Event Assessment Tool over time. The latter is part of a CD-ROM--Emergency Risk Communication CDCynergy--distributed primarily to public information officers in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Event Assessment Tool is designed to aid emergency professionals in identifying the magnitude of a crisis event and to suggest appropriate actions to confront such a situation. Applied twice during the 2001 anthrax bioterrorism crisis in Boca Raton, Florida, the tool functioned in a binary manner by first indicating a moderate crisis level (on 4 October) and then four days later (on 8 October) a highly intense crisis, suggesting that it is time sensitive. This anthrax event provides an opportunity for crisis and disaster managers to understand the dynamic nature of crises. Rapid changes during these types of events suggest that any metric used to predict intensity must account for this variability. Additional limitations and implications of the tool are discussed.     

An exploratory comparison of disasters, riots and terrorist acts

One question that emerged following the 11 September attacks was how to categorise and classify the event within existing disaster and conflict-event research frameworks. A decade ago, Quarantelli (1993) compared findings on the similarities and differences between consensus- and conflict-type events by illustrating a conceptual distinction between the two. In this paper, this discussion is expanded to include terrorist attacks by offering comparisons from research findings following 11 September. We provide analyses of individual, organisational, and community-level behaviour in crisis situations and suggest how 11 September is both similar to, and differs from, consensus- and conflict-type events as they were previously considered. Applications for emergency management are also suggested.     

Emergency medical preparedness during the 2006 World Cup in Frankfurt, Germany

This paper describes emergency medical preparedness during FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) World Cup matches in Frankfurt, Germany, in 2006. The methods employed were document analysis and personal observation of games over five days in June–July 2006. The medical authorities in Frankfurt drew on a wide range of scientific literature and experiences to elaborate a National Concept. They paid attention to different models of handling mass catastrophes in shaping the final version of the document. The participation of designated authorities, associations, and volunteer organisations was coordinated sufficiently and the games in Frankfurt proceeded without great incident, even though more than 300,000 people in total attended. The adopted emergency medical procedure was appropriate for a mass gathering event. Official and volunteer organisations collaborated precisely in emergency preparedness. While one uniform concept for all mass gatherings events cannot be developed, case reports and experiences are useful tools.     

Mapping convergence points in the initial emergency response to 9/111

In response to extreme events, researchers have recognised the convergence of volunteers, emergency responders, and other individuals and organisations. In 2000, geographer Paul Routledge presented the concept of convergence spaces as a theoretical means to explain social movements. In applying this concept, this paper explores the geographic space in which organisations and individuals converged immediately following the 11 September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center. The paper begins to answer the question of whether there were in fact any patterns of convergence among the locations utilised by organisations responding to the attacks. Using data collected from field documents, these geographic locations are mapped over 12 days to help identify possible patterns of clustering. Results of this analysis will begin to provide researchers, policy makers and practitioners with a better understanding of how emergency response evolves geographically following an event.     

There's nowhere to go: counting the costs of extreme weather to the homeless community

People experiencing homelessness are vulnerable to extreme weather in unique ways. The entrenched inequalities that underpin disaster vulnerability are compounded by extreme isolation and the stress of transient living on mental and physical health. However, the impacts of extreme weather on the homeless in Australia are largely undocumented and rarely incorporated in emergency planning. Interviews with and surveys of emergency and homeless services and service users revealed that the primary ramifications of losing shelter and worsening mental health deepen the cycle of homelessness and trauma. Consequently, homeless shelter losses, such as tents, should be included in pre‐ and post‐event impact statistics and subsequent recovery support. Extreme weather response plans should include early triggers and strategies for ‘non‐severe’ weather events, as the homeless community is affected earlier and by a wider range of meteorological conditions. Moreover, this study also explores the benefits of a trauma‐informed response to extreme weather when working with the homeless.