Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands: an analysis of the problem and review of the literature

Policy makers around the world are calling for the production and diffusion of more useful information for environmental decision-making. Ideally, useful information expands alternatives, clarifies choice and enables policy makers to achieve desired outcomes. Decision makers, however, often lack the useful information needed for good decision-making. By concentrating efforts on increasing the supply of scientific information, scientists may not be producing information considered relevant and useful by decision makers, and may simply be producing too much of the wrong kind of information. Users may have specific information needs that go unmet, or may not be aware of the existence of potentially useful information. This paper defines the practical problem of reconciling the supply of scientific information with users’ demands so that scientists produce information that decision makers need and use in policy decisions. Literature from a variety of disciplines and topics is reviewed to: explain the goals of reconciling the supply and demand of scientific information; define what constitutes useful information; explore lessons learned from experience and describe the characteristics and conditioning factors that shaped those experiences; and identify various alternative strategies and processes that forge stronger science policy linkages. The paper concludes with recommendations for future research.     

The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model

Deep emission cuts rely on the use of low carbon technologies like renewable energy or carbon capture and storage. There is considerable uncertainty about their future costs. We carry out a sensitivity analysis based on Gauss Quadrature for cost parameters describing these technologies in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty on total and marginal mitigation costs as well as composition changes in the energy system. Globally, effects in total cost often average out, but different regions are affected quite differently from the underlying uncertainty in costs for key abatement technologies. Regions can be either affected because they are well suited to deploy a technology for geophysical reasons or because of repercussions through international energy markets. The absolute impact of uncertainty on consumption increases over the time horizon and with the ambition of emission reductions. Uncertainty in abatement costs relative to expected abatement costs are however larger under a moderate ambition climate policy scenario because in this case the marginal abatement occurs in the electricity sector where the cost uncertainty is implemented. Under more ambitious climate policy in line with the two degree target, the electricity sector is always decarbonized by 2050, hence uncertainty has less effect on the electricity mix. The findings illustrate the need for regional results as global averages can hide distributional consequences on technological uncertainty.     

基于边际治理成本的环境保护税税率标准探究与政策建议

税负水平是税收调节作用的重要因素,各地区需要科学地制定符合本地区发展水平的环境保护税税率来平衡环境保护与经济发展.基于2016年东北某省14个市的钢铁、电力、化工、水泥行业的排污及治理成本数据,建立污染削减费用函数模型,计算该省大气、水中主要污染物的边际治理成本,并设置不同环境保护税税率的情景方案,以探究环境保护税税率对该省经济发展的影响.结果表明:①SO₂、NO_x、COD、NH₃-N的边际治理成本分别为3.44、5.03、3.81、8.15元/污染当量. ②重点行业主要污染物的边际治理成本不同,钢铁行业主要污染物的边际治理成本较高,其COD、NH₃-N的边际治理成本均高于总体边际治理成本;化工行业的COD边际治理成本高于总体边际治理成本;电力行业的大气主要污染物边际治理成本高于总体边际治理成本;水泥行业的大气主要污染物边际治理成本则相对较低. ③适当提高环境保护税税率对经济发展总体影响不大.研究显示:该省的边际治理成本远高于目前的环境保护税征收标准,若以边际治理成本作为环境保护税税率,不但会增加企业负担,而且会导致不同行业的边际治理成本相差较大,因此,建议提高该省的环境保护税税率标准,即大气污染物征收标准为2.4元/污染当量,水污染物征收标准为2.8元/污染当量,并设置环境保护税税率的行业差异化,将有利于政策功能的发挥.      

Cost curve analysis for SO2 and NOx emission control in Finland

The development of air pollution policies requires information on emission control effectiveness, application potential and costs. In this study Finnish cost-effectiveness data were calculated for sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in 1990 using technical and cost parameters from national operation experience in power plants and industry. Both derived cost curves depicting abated amount of emissions and related annualised costs were comparable with those in the Europe-wide Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model data for Finland using more aggregated input data, part of which were the same for all European countries. The ranking of abatement measures to combat acidifying emissions was explored by combining the controls of both SO₂ and NO_x based on their acidifying potential. The most cost-efficient controls, related mainly to SO₂, were already in use in 1995. A sensitivity analysis for SO₂ indicated that the uncertainty in annual operating hours of combustion plants (±1000 h per annum) has the largest effect on total abatement costs (−7 to −6%), whereas the presumed uncertainties of ±10% in removal efficiencies have the greatest effect of ±11% on total emissions. The national assessment of emission controls was important in describing the country-specific conditions in detail and highlighting the major differences from the RAINS model data and methodology. The results have facilitated the composition of further national reduction measures.     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

An analysis of the likely success of policy actions under uncertainty: Recovery from acidification across Great Britain

In the context of wider debates about the role of uncertainty in environmental science and the development of environmental policy, we use a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimate (GLUE) approach to address the uncertainty in both acid deposition model predictions and in the sensitivity of the soils to assess the likely success of policy actions to reduce acid deposition damage across Great Britain. A subset of 11, 699 acid deposition model runs that adequately represented observed deposition data were used to provide acid deposition distributions for 2005 and 2020, following a substantial reduction in SO₂ and NO_x emissions. Uncertain critical loads data for soils were then combined with these deposition data to derive estimates of the accumulated exceedance (AE) of critical loads for 2005 and 2020. For the more sensitive soils, the differences in accumulated exceedance between 2005 and 2020 were such that we could be sure that they were significant and a meaningful environmental improvement would result. For the least sensitive soils, critical loads were largely met by 2020, hence uncertainties in the differences in accumulated exceedance were of little policy relevance. Our approach of combining estimates of uncertainty in both a pollution model and an effects model, shows that even taking these combined uncertainties into account, policy-makers can be sure that the substantial planned reduction in acidic emissions will reduce critical loads exceedances. The use of accumulated exceedance as a relative measure of environmental protection provides additional information to policy makers in tackling this ‘wicked problem’.     

The role of economic,policy, and ecological factors in estimating the value of carbon stocks in Everglades mangrove forests,South Florida,USA

Old growth mangroves in existing protected areas store more carbon than restored forests or plantations. Carbon storage in such forests has economic value independent of additionality, offering opportunities for policy makers to ensure their maintenance, and inclusion in climate change mitigation strategies. Mangrove forests of the Everglades National Park (ENP), South Florida, though protected, face external stressors such as hydrological alterations because of flooding control structures and agriculture impacts and saltwater intrusion as a result of increasing sea level rise. Moreover, decreased funding of Everglades’ restoration activities following the recent economic crisis (beginning 2008) threatens the restoration of the Greater Everglades including mangrove dominated coastal regions. We evaluate several economic and ecological challenges confronting the economic valuation of total (vegetation plus soil) organic carbon (TOC) storage in the ENP mangroves. Estimated TOC storage for this forested wetland ranges from 70 to 537 Mg C/ha and is higher than values reported for tropical, boreal, and temperate forests. We calculate the average abatement cost of C specific for ENP mangroves to value the TOC from $2–$3.4 billion; estimated unit area values are $13,859/ha–$23,728/ha. The valuation of the stored/legacy carbon is based on the: 1) ecogeomorphic attributes, 2) regional socio-economic milieu, and 3) status of the ENP mangroves as a protected area. The assessment of C storage estimates and its economic value can change public perception about how this regulating ecosystem service of ENP mangrove wetlands (144,447 ha) supports human well-being and numerous economic activities. This perception, in turn, can contribute to future policy changes such that the ENP mangroves, the largest mangrove area in the continental USA, can be included as a potential alternative in climate change mitigation strategies.     

Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO₂, NH₃, VOC, CO, NO_x, black carbon, organic carbon, PM_2.5, and CH₄. We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.     

Applying integrated assessment methodologies to air quality plans: Two European cases

Air pollution Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) can be used for determining how emissions should be reduced to improve air quality and to protect human health in a cost-efficient way. The application of IAM is also useful to spread information to the general public and to explain the effectiveness of proposed Air Quality Plans. In this paper, the application of the RIAT+ system to determine suitable abatement measures to improve the air quality at a regional/local level is presented for two European cases: the Brussels Capital Region (Belgium) and the Porto Urban Area (Portugal). Both regions are affected with PM10 or NO₂ concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the European Union legislation. To properly assess air quality abatement measures a surrogate model was used, allowing the implementation of an efficient optimization procedure. This model is derived in both cases through a set of simulations performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. In addition, internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and external costs (due to population exposure to air pollutant concentrations) of policy options were considered. The application of this integrated assessment modelling system in scenario (Brussels case) and optimization (Porto) modes contributes to identifying some advantages and limitations of these two approaches and also provides some guidance when urban air quality has to be assessed.     

CO2 emission reduction costs for iron ore-based steelmaking in Sweden

Possibilities to reduce CO₂ emissions and related costs at Swedish iron-ore based steelmaking in Sweden have been estimated. An evaluation of the direct impact on costs for emission-reducing measures due to the inclusion in the EU ETS is also made.Two different abatement options, based on previously implemented measures at SSAB Oxelösund as well as some future measures that could be implemented at the company by 2010, have been investigated. The first option corresponds to a CO₂ emission reduction of 6.5% and the second to a 13% reduction. The abatement measure with the largest reduction potential is dependent on natural gas being available at SSAB Oxelösund by 2010, which is not certain.Several of the estimated abatement costs are negative, meaning cost savings for the company if implemented. The cost estimates are strongly linked to the fuel prices. The inclusion of industries in the EU ETS increases the incentives for companies to implement CO₂ abatement measures.     

Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gases mitigation measures in the European agro-forestry sector: a literature survey

Over the last 20 years, climate change has become an increasing concern for scientists, public opinions and policy makers. Due to the pervasive nature of its impacts for many important aspects of human life, climate change is likely to influence and be influenced by the most diverse policy or management choices. This is particularly true for those interventions affecting agriculture and forestry: they are strongly dependent on climate phenomena, but also contribute to climate evolution being sources of and sinks for greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper offers a survey of the existing literature assessing cost-effectiveness and efficiency of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies or the effects of broader economic reforms in the agricultural and forestry sectors. The focus is mainly on European countries. Different methodological approaches, research questions addressed and results are examined. The main findings are that agriculture can potentially provide emissions reduction at a competitive cost, mainly with methane abatement, while carbon sequestration seems more cost-effective with appropriate forest management measures. Afforestation, cropland management and bioenergy are less economically viable measures due to competition with other land use. Mitigation policies should be carefully designed either to balance costs with expected benefits in terms of social welfare. Regional variability is one of the main drawbacks to fully assess the cost-effectiveness of different measures. Integration of models to take into account both social welfare and spatial heterogeneity seems to be the frontier of the next model generation.     

Development and valuation of adaptation pathways for storm water management infrastructure

Policymakers today are faced with a difficult task of planning for large scale infrastructure that can cater to the climatic and socio-economic changes that the future will bring. To address the deeply uncertain nature resulting from long-term changes, it is becoming necessary to develop strategies that support flexibility and react more strategically than traditional planning approaches. This paper applies the concept of adaptation tipping points and adaptation pathways to a case study in Singapore for the planning of long-term urban drainage infrastructure. Using conventional grey and sustainable green solutions in isolation and in combination, adaptation pathway maps are developed and compared across outlined climatic and landuse scenarios. To understand and justify if the imparted flexibility is worth its cost, economic assessments are performed. This is a valuable extension of the existing framework, helps to identify the preferred configuration of land use and sub-select adaptation actions that should be implemented at the current time frame. The main finding of this study is that the adaptation pathways map for the sustainable grey landuse scenario economically outperforms those of the other outlined land uses. This provides a valuable insight for policy makers, as it implies that if carefully planned development is undertaken, the requirements of storm water management can be met in a sustainable manner, while simultaneously freeing up land for other purposes. This is especially important in the context of highly dense urban areas such as Singapore, where land is a scare resource.     

Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: Carbon intensity, economic growth and policy intervention

As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO₂ emission sectors, China's iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO₂ emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO₂ abatement, investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO₂ emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO₂ emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO₂ abatement in China's iron and steel industry, while achieving CO₂ emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth. This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth. Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO₂ abatement.     

Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

A methodology is presented here to assess the potential long-term contribution of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases in mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows the future development of the mitigation potential of non-CO₂ gases (as a function of changes in technology and implementation barriers) to represent a crucial parameter for the overall costs of mitigation scenarios. The recently developed marginal abatement cost curves for 2010 in the EMF-21 project are taken as the starting point. First-order estimates were made of the future maximum attainable reduction potentials and costs on the basis of available literature. The set of MAC curves developed was used in a multi-gas analysis for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppm CO₂-equivalent. Including future development for the non-CO₂ mitigation options not only increases their mitigation potential but also lowers the overall costs compared to situations where no development is assumed (3–21% lower in 2050 and 4–26% lower in 2100 in our analysis). Along with the fluorinated gases, energy-related methane emissions make up the largest share in total non-CO₂ abatement potential as they represent a large emission source and have a large potential for reduction (towards 90% compared to baseline in 2100). Most methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landuse-related sources are less simple to abate, with an estimated abatement potential in 2100 of around 60% and 40%, respectively.     

CO2-emission reduction costs for petroleum refineries in Sweden

Possibilities to reduce CO₂ emissions and related costs at Swedish petroleum refineries have been estimated. An evaluation of the direct impact on costs for emission-reducing measures due to the inclusion in the EU ETS is also made. Abatement measures possible to implement within the next 5–6 years at Shell refinery Gothenburg corresponding to a 8% reduction, and at Preemraff Lysekil corresponding to 22% of the estimated fossil CO₂ emissions in 2010 have been included. Many of the estimated abatement costs are negative, meaning cost savings for the companies if implemented. The cost estimates are strongly linked to the fuel prices. The inclusion of industries in the EU ETS increases the incentives for companies to implement CO₂ abatement measures.     

Adaptive management intentions with a reality of evaluation: Getting science back into policy

In Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin water reform has been contentious as government attempts to reconcile historical over allocation of water to irrigation with the use of water for environmental outcomes. However, in many aspects, scientific knowledge of the environment is either imperfect, incomplete or environmental responses are unpredictable, with this uncertainty preventing definitive policy and closure of political arguments. In response to uncertainty and knowledge gaps, adaptive management has been written into the legislation, along with provisions for periodic evaluation.This research ascertains how adaptive management is understood by policy makers, with this indicative of future implementation of adaptive management. The way in which adaptive management is constructed by policy makers is determined through legislation, public speeches, government reports and semi-structured interviews. The findings demonstrate that adaptive management has been subsumed by evaluation. The loss of adaptive management as a distinct concept is seen as a loss of science and discovery from the policy process, with the dominance of evaluation discussed as limiting innovation and reinforcing a ‘muddling through’ of policy.     

Optimal carbon mitigation strategy under non-linear feedback effects and in the presence of permafrost release trigger hazard

The threat of release of methane sequestered in the circumpolar Arctic regions of the world creates the possibility of triggering additional feedback effects from the terrestrial and the deep ocean systems which could potentially add large amounts of carbon (C) into the atmosphere. This paper analyses the implications for C mitigation policy under the threats of a substantial permafrost methane release. Several insights emerge from the analysis. First, the presence of non-linear feedbacks creates a bifurcation zone in the C emissions-stock space, on one side of which large accumulations of atmospheric C materialize leading to significant damages. Second, the bifurcation line does not have a steep slope, implying that it would be possible to avoid falling on the wrong side of this zone even if the current atmospheric stock of C were higher than what they are today. Third, when the release of permafrost C is uncertain, there is benefit in reducing anthropogenic C more than what would be optimal under a certain release of the same. Fourth, higher abatement cost scenarios do not necessarily imply significantly reduced abatement efforts. On the contrary, abatement efforts, which are only reduced marginally under this scenario, ensure that long run carbon path is stabilized. This is done in order to avoid incurring substantial costs of abatement in the future when non-linear feedback effects kick in.     

Uncertainty analysis on aquatic environmental impacts of urban land use change

Uncertainties hamper the implementation of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). In order to quantitatively characterize the uncertainties of environmental impacts, this paper develops an integrated methodology through uncertainty analysis on land use change, which combines the scenario analysis approach, stochastic simulation technique, and statistics. Dalian city in China was taken as a case study in the present work. The results predict that the Fuzhou River poses the highest environmental pollution risk with a probability of 89.63% for COD in 2020. Furthermore, the Biliu River, Fuzhou River, Zhuang River, and Dasha River have 100% probabilities for NH₃-N. NH₃-N is a more critical pollutant than COD for all rivers. For COD, industry is the critical pollution source for all rivers except the Zhuang River. For NH₃-N, agriculture is the critical pollution source for the Biliu River, Yingna River, and Dasha River, sewage for the Fuzhou River and Zhuang River, and industry for the Dengsha River. This methodology can provide useful information, such as environmental risk, environmental pressure, and extremely environmental impact, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can also help to ascertain the significance of each pollution source and its priority for control in urban planning.