气候正义视域下的气候变化损失与损害救济路径分析

气候变化对生态环境和人类健康造成的影响一直受科学家和国际组织的广泛关注。在现有的科学技术无法确切论证气候变化对环境的总体影响及对小岛和低地国家带来损害情况下,该议题自提出至今的进展都举步维艰。本文对议题谈判进展及各方立场进行梳理,提出未来谈判和规则的制定应以全球气候正义为价值衡量标准,树立整体观上的气候正义理念。并对气候正义内涵进行具体解读:一是以人权保护为维度,指出保护小岛和低地国家的基本人权是实现气候正义的逻辑前提;二是指出应当基于分配正义与矫正正义的传统分析视角,将共同但有区别责任原则作为设定权利与义务分配机制时的基础标准;三是气候正义要求一国在行使权利时应遵循领土无害使用原则,负有不污染和破坏他国环境和生态的义务,如违反便可能引发国家责任或惩戒。本文进而以气候正义为价值指引提出三种救济路径:一是国家责任路径,以国际人权法、国际环境法的规则或原则为法律依据,根据一定的规则,来判断当事国的损害行为或结果是否构成国际法上的国家责任;二是国际环境规制路径,即在《联合国气候变化框架公约》(以下简称《公约》)所确立的遵约与履约机制下解决问题,利用市场机制和激励手段如基金和保险支持制度来救济或补偿损失与损害;三是国际环境争端解决路径,主要以磋商、协商、和解、谈判等非强制性方式及国际仲裁、国际司法的法律手段解决气候争端。在救济路径上,应以全球规制路径为主,以国家责任路径为补充,以环境争端解决方式为程序性保障。中国基于全球气候治理的积极推动者,应表明立场,以共同但有区别责任原则为谈判基础,加强南南合作,履行国际气候承诺,发展低碳经济,积极推进该议题的国际谈判。     

Competition gives way to cooperation: rethinking Sino-Indian relations in climate change negotiations

In global climate change politics, China and India have worked closely with each other, representing two big emitters from the developing world. This article reviews Sino-Indian cooperation during four UN climate change negotiations from 2009 to 2012. Their collaboration echoed the perception of neorealism in international relations (IR) studies that states will seek “external balancing” for maximizing national “relative gains”. China and India are expected to continue their cooperation on climate change issues when sharing the same structural position as big economies and big emitters, the same pressure in carbon emission reductions, and the same goal of improving living standards for their citizens. Encountering the devastating impacts of climate change and the deadlock in responsibility division in current global climate change governance, this work seeks to shed light on the evolving multilateral governance environment and its complex implications for Sino-Indian relations from an IR perspective.     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations.For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations,many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights,and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity.In this paper,the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively,have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development,and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future,and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions,including historical emissions,development stage,and future demands.Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process.However,developing countries are still in the process of industrialization,which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs.For China,the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

The Paris Agreement and climate change negotiations: Small Islands,big players

Climate change poses an existential threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS). They have played a leading role in raising awareness of climate change on the international stage and advocating for strong climate action, notably through the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Despite their heterogeneity, they succeeded in building a common diplomatic discourse and influencing strategy, and mobilized political leaders as well as talented negotiators and advisors.Small Island States were a crucial group in the negotiating period up to, during the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), and for the entry into force of the Paris Agreement. SIDS succeeded to secure their special circumstances as vulnerable countries, demonstrated leadership in raising ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help secure an ambitious long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5 °C, and advanced the complex debate on loss and damage.Small Island States face major challenges to advance their leadership on climate change moving forward: securing immediate actions for those particularly vulnerable countries and increasing their influence within and outside the climate change negotiations. For Small Island states, the 1.5 °C goal should be considered “the visible part of the iceberg” for their diplomacy in a post-Paris context.     

Resources and international climate change policy gridlock

Few other policy zones are as complex as the issue of climate change. If the more pessimistic projections of climate change doom are correct, then the failure to address the issue is likely to be catastrophic and irreversible. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted the potential extinction of many species and that the existence of small-island and other vulnerable countries will be threatened if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. Climate change is a transboundary problem and requires unprecedented levels of cooperation between states and serious and sustained responses from major emitters. However, the growing demand and consumption of natural resources for continued energy security and cornucopian economic growth have undermined the outcomes of international climate change negotiations. It is argued here that there is a strong connection between the major emitters’ positions at United Nations’ climate talks, their possessions, dependence and consumption of natural resources, and the continued undermining of international climate change policy for unsustainable growth. This paper assesses the resource politics of the US, China, India, Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia and their positions at climate talks to show the link between lack of climate change policy progress and the positions of these main players.     

基于贸易隐含碳的城市人均碳足迹比较研究

气候谈判中采用的碳排放基准数据,关乎发展中国家的发展权。本文认为基于生产者责任原则的碳排放数据为气候谈判基准是不合理的。提出基于贸易隐含碳的城市人均碳足迹数据为基准,并选取具有代表性的几个城市(纽约、东京、伦敦、上海)进行样本研究。结果表明,在考虑贸易隐含碳排放的情况下,上海的人均碳足迹最低。2008年,纽约为上海的2.2倍,伦敦为上海的1.8倍,东京为上海的1.6倍。本文希望在考虑贸易隐含碳的情况下,对国际上有相近功能的城市人均碳足迹的研究可以为我国的气候谈判赢得更多的话语权,并给出了相关政策建议。     

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human’s adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China’s efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human’s social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.     

《巴黎协定》后的气候资金测量、报告和核证体系构建研究

气候资金测量、报告和核证产生于《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称《公约》)之下,2009年以来一直是全球气候谈判的重点之一,也是未来全球共同应对气候变化和不断增进国际信任的重要环节。《巴黎协定》达成的"每两年通报"的决定,将推动气候资金测量、报告和核证得到不断的加强和完善。本文通过梳理最新的气候资金机制以及测量、报告和核证的文献资料和智库报告,分析了气候资金测量、报告和核证的内涵、目标和最新进展,以及公约框架下面临的挑战。分析指出,目前不同的气候资金统计和核算机构的资金分类标准存在差异,数据可比性有待改善;缺乏从资金上游到下游的反馈机制,影响气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的完整性;气候资金计量体系虽然正在发展和完善之中,但仍然难以提供准确的资金"支付"数据。据此,文章提出了构建综合性的国际气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的重点任务:建立具有统一数据基础和核算口径的气候资金测量体系,建立操作指南更为详细、形式更为标准统一的气候资金报告体系,以及"自上而下"和"自下而上"相结合的气候资金核证机制。最后,文章指出国际气候资金测量、报告和核证体系的构建需要发达国家和发展中国家在坚持公约资金机制的基础上共同参与和协作。作为国际上少数几个向GEF捐资的发展中国家之一,中国在参与过程中应力争体现发展中国家对气候资金性质的主张以及对测量、报告和核证机制的关键概念和范围界定的主张,影响国际气候资金机制的运营规则和技术规则。     

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China’s industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China’s internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China’s energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Abstract

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations. For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations, many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights, and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity. In this paper, the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively, have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development, and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future, and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions, including historical emissions, development stage, and future demands. Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process. However, developing countries are still in the process of industrialization, which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs. For China, the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

Establishing a measurement,reporting, and verification system for climate finance in post-Paris agreement period

The measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) of climate finance was originated from discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It has been one of the key issues of global climate negotiations since 2009 and will continue to be of significant importance in addressing climate change and strengthening international trust. This paper analyses the concept, the objective, and the progress of the MRV of climate finance based on reviews of the latest literature and think-tank reports regarding climate finance regime and MRV. Following the analysis, challenges faced with the MRV of climate finance are illustrated. This paper presents that the comparability of climate finance data needs to be improved due to the variety of methodologies used for disaggregating climate finance. In addition, the integrality of the MRV system of climate finance has been impaired by the lack of feedback mechanism from the recipients to the contributors in reporting system. Furthermore, although accounting system of climate finance has been developing and improving, it remains incapacity in providing accurate data on disbursed climate finance. Responding to the above challenges, this paper proposes the key tasks in establishing a comprehensive MRV system for climate finance at international level. The tasks involve developing a measurement system with consistent data basis and accounting basis, a reporting system with more detailed guidance and standardized formats, as well as a verification mechanism balancing top-down and bottom-up review processes. In the last section, this paper concludes that the establishment of an improved MRV of climate finance requires concerted cooperation and negotiations between developed and developing country Parties under the UNFCCC. As one of the few developing country donors to the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), China is suggested to clarify its propositions as a developing country in aspects such as concept, coverage, and architecture of climate finance and MRV system, and gain bargaining power in improving operating and technical rules of international climate finance regime.     

Coastal management, climate change adaptation and sustainability in small coastal communities: leatherback turtles and beach loss

Beaches are frequently subjected to erosion and accretion that are influenced by coastal development interventions and natural variations due to storms and changes in river flow. Climate change may also exacerbate beach erosion and accretion. Natural scientists are concerned with the sustainability of species dependent on the beach ecosystem. Policymakers are pre-occupied with the economic sustainability of coastal communities should species decline and prolonged beach loss occur. The aim of this paper is to explore the linkage between science and policy by reporting the findings of a study of coastal change impacts on leatherback turtle nesting and analysing the socio-economic and adaptation implications of these changes for coastal communities. Grande Riviere, Trinidad, was used as a case study. Primary fieldwork investigated unsustainable coastal management practices. A questionnaire was administered to examine livelihoods, including ecotourism based on leatherback turtle nesting, and knowledge and awareness of climate change. One key finding of the study was that the community’s livelihoods were natural resources dependent, and that natural beach dynamics and unsustainable coastal management practices posed major threats to natural resource and economic sustainability. Another key finding was that, despite these impacts, community knowledge and awareness of climate change in general was low, and there was a perception of state responsibility for climate change adaptation. The research findings have global applicability for coastal communities at risk of exposure and that are highly vulnerable to natural resources damage arising from anthropogenic stress and potential climate change. These communities require policy reforms to strengthen current coastal management practices and adaptation responses aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability.     

气候变化国际谈判进展及其核心问题

本文简要介绍了目前对气候变化问题的科学认识及其可能产生的影响以及气候变化国际谈判的进展情况 ,分析气候变化问题背后蕴含的政治、经济、科技、环境和外交斗争 ,概要阐述气候变化问题的本质。     

Global progress in climate change adaptation policies and its implication for China

This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation (CCA) policies both under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in major regions and countries, including the EU and its major member countries, the influential developed countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the emerging economies and the least developed countries (LDCs). The progress made in China in CCA policies is also reviewed and compared with that in other countries. Finally, good international practices are proposed for China’s policy development. It is found that adaptation has been given the same priority as mitigation since the twenty-first century with regard to climate change-related actions. The topics related to adaptation in the international climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC have evolved from mechanisms for finance and technology development and transfer exclusively in the early stages to implementation of practical adaptation programs and actions. Since 2006, major developed and developing countries have frequently set forward specific CCA policies or general climate change policies involving adaptation in the form of laws, frameworks, strategies, and plans. The LDCs have also been working on National Adaptation Programmes of Action and subsequent National Adaptation Plans with the support from the financial mechanisms under the UNFCCC. Therefore, globally, it has become a common practice to develop national or regional policies to plan and guide CCA actions. China has established climate change policies involving adaptation at the national, regional, and sectorial levels since 2007. However, these policies have strong limitations in their knowledge base, strategic positioning, contents, and implementation mechanisms, e.g. lack of a sound knowledge base, an international perspective, clear responsibilities for policy implementation, and appropriate monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. It is recommended that China should further strengthen its technical capabilities in climate change projections as well as impact, vulnerability, and risk assessment, and develop methodologies and techniques for the preparation, impact assessment and implementation of CCA policies. Furthermore, future CCA strategies or plans should be developed with an emphasis on China’s vision and strategic position on the world stage.     

Climate Change Governance in China: A Case Study

Climate change is treated in China as an issue related closely to the national strategy for sustainable development as well as an issue in international collaboration in environment. The duality of the issue makes the climate change policy often waver between domestic and international emphases. In the past one and a half decades, the central government emphasized mostly on responding to international pressure by participating in negotiations in international treaties. However, the nation, as well as the world, will probably benefit more by taking a more proactive attitude towards mitigation and adaptation to climate change. This paper described the current governance structure for climate change management in China and made concrete recommendations for its improvement. The most urgent recommendation is to improve the cooperation of current National Coordination Committee on Climate Change with authority for policy-making and to oversee climate change.     

走向更为积极的气候变化政策与管理

我国目前应对气候变化的策略表现为：将气候变化政策视为可持续发展政策的一部分；在参与全球气候变化的国际协议方面有着鲜明立场；重视气候变化方面的科学研究；把气候变化问题作为环境外交的重要部分；努力吸引公众参与等方面。但在政策的制定和执行中仍缺乏应有的积极性、主动性和前瞳性。我国的气候变化治理结构存在的问题主要包括：缺乏明确的决策机构和执行机构。科学研究对政策制定的支持能力不足，公众参与薄弱．企业减缓气候变化的动力不足。针对这些问题．提出了以“走向更为积极的气候变化政策与管理”为核心的改进治理结构的政策建议。     

Loss and damage related to climate change: connotations and response mechanism

Global mitigative and adaptive efforts have not been able to effectively address the adverse impacts caused by climate change. Therefore, a direct solution is needed to address the significant resulting loss and damage (L&D). During the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Doha in 2012, the issue of responding to L&D arising from climate change gained sudden traction and became one of the key issues that affected the outcome of the convention. In this paper, a study on the definition and connotations of L&D arising from climate change was conducted, together with an analysis of its relationship with related concepts, namely impacts, vulnerability, and risks. This led to the proposal of an L&D conceptual model that is more comprehensive, with the recognition of the need to address the issue through effective supplementation of existing mitigative and adaptive efforts. A systematic elaboration of an L&D response mechanism was made based on politics, law, and the market, leading to a preliminary presentation of a possible format for an L&D mechanism. Potential academic research directions for L&D were also proposed that could serve as references for the establishment of international and national L&D response mechanisms and related research.     

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area,The Netherlands: enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which has led to initiatives to make the area more “climate proof.” We developed a research model that examines individual differences in processing information about climate change related flood risk, based on the postulate that individuals often make an implicit trade-off between motivation to know “what is real” and motivation to maintain prior beliefs. A field experiment, embedded in a survey (n = 1887), sought to test out how the participants responded to risk frames in which a story on flood was either or not combined with climate change information. The results show that it was possible to increase the participants’ local climate risk perception in combination with increased motivation for flood damage prevention, despite a certain level of climate change skepticism. A general implication of our study is that relevant and diagnostic information about local climate-related flood risks can stimulate citizens’ need to know “what’s real” and their willingness to take responsibility for preparedness.     

Bound to lead?Rethinking China's role after Paris in UNFCCC negotiations

As the biggest global emitter of greenhouse gases, China is an extremely important actor in international climate negotiations. During the climate summit in Copenhagen, China was blamed for its uncooperative positions particularly from the US side. However, in the Paris climate process, China's participation in international negotiations is more active, and has become a wellrecognized promoter of the Paris Agreement. To understand China's climate policy, the economic and diplomatic strategy should be taken into consideration, especially the changes in the ideas of China's global governance rooted from domestic politics discourse. Moreover, China's symmetrical changes within domestic and international dimension possibly bring out more balanced climate policies and thus the constructive role of China will be the normalcy in the future United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changenegotiations. However, the negotiations after the US presidential elections may change dramatically and yields great uncertainty for global action. Thus, the vacuum of power may be a possible scenario. Will China reinforce its role toward leadership or go back to group politics? This article examines China's concerns, motives, and possible path to climate leadership in the current debate.     

“地球工程”作为减缓气候变化手段的几个关键问题

减缓气候变化可以在大的地理尺度上以工程技术手段来实施。地球工程包括所有能源生产和消费以外的、不涉及工业生产过程管理的,在较大的地球尺度或规模上,去除大气中的CO2或直接控制太阳辐射而降温的各种人为的工程技术手段,主要包括三大类:绿色生物技术手段、碳捕获与埋存技术和太阳光辐射额度控制管理技术。这一类地球工程手段有着一系列经济、技术、环境、伦理、安全和不确定性含义。本文就近年来国际上关于地球工程作为减缓气候变化可能技术选择的几个关键问题开展了分析和讨论,涉及概念界定、技术特点、可能影响、治理构架等。作者认为,对于直接作用于碳的地球工程手段,如绿色生物技术手段和碳捕获与埋存技术,风险小、可操控;太阳光辐管理技术,通过人为排放到大气的SO2和气溶胶等的降温效应,来控制地球气温的上升,尽管使用的经济成本可能不高,具有实际操作可能,但其巨大的不确定性和可能的安全含义,需要引起足够的重视。从伦理上看,当代人是否有权来开展太阳光辐管理技术这类具有巨大科学不确定性的地球工程存在争议,在科学不确定的情况下采取任何行动,就失去了伦理学基础。从法律上看,人工干预太阳辐射,即使是科学实验或研究,由于其影响超出了国界,超出了当代人,也超出了人类社会,如果有人采取行动,也存在法律依据上的质疑。人工干预太阳辐射的研究和实施,需要一个国际治理构架。为了防止其他国家单独行动,需要"相互约束"的治理构架——"自我约束"以换取他国同意"自我约束"。鉴于气候变化和光辐管理在科学上的不确定性,目前不宜实施,短期内也不会提上议事日程。太阳光辐管理技术影响的复杂性和气候变化风险的迫切性,需要我们加大科学研究力度,为科学决策提供依据。中国作为一个新兴经济体,世界第一大CO2排放国,地域空间气候条件存在巨大差异性。从减排成本的角度,从气候影响的空间差异性,开展地球工程的科学研究,有着科学、政策和国际气候外交的积极意义。但是,相关的科学研究需要国际制度构架。由于气候变化框架公约及其谈判尚未涉及,需要开展系统科学、技术、经济、法律和国家安全等方面的相关研究,提高科学认知度,为国际谈判和政策选择提供决策依据。