The impact of frequency and duration of air quality monitoring: Atlanta, GA, data modeling of air pollution and mortality

The purpose of this analysis is threefold. We first examine the extent to which a longer series of data improves our understanding of air pollution on human mortality in the Atlanta, GA, area by updating the findings presented in Klemm and Mason (J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 2000, 50, 1433-1439) and Klemm et al. (Inhal. Toxicol. 2004, 16 (Suppl 1), 131-141) with 7.5 additional years of data. We explore estimated effects on two age groups (<65 and 65+) and four categories of cause of death. Second, we investigate how enlarging the geographic area of inquiry influences the estimated effects. Third, because some air quality (AQ) measures are monitored less frequently than daily, we investigate the extent to which AQ measurement frequency can influence estimates of relationships with human mortality. Our analytical approach employs a Poisson regression model using generalized linear modeling in S-Plus to estimate the relationship between daily AQ measures and daily mortality counts. We show that the estimated effects and their associated t values vary by year for nine AQ measures (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or =2.5 microm [PM2.5], elemental carbon [EC], organic carbon [OC], NO3, SO4, O3, NO2, CO, and SO2). Several of the estimated AQ effects show downward trends during the 9-year period of study. The estimated effects tend to be strongest for the AQ measurement during the day of death and tend to decrease with additional lags. Enlarging the geographic area from two to four counties in the metropolitan area decreased the estimated effects, perhaps partly due to the fact that the measurement site is located in one of the two original counties. Estimated effects utilizing data as if the AQ were only measured every 3rd or every 6th day each week or twice per week vary from lower to higher than that estimated with daily measurements, although the t values are lower, as expected.     

Daily mortality and air pollution in The Netherlands

We studied the association of daily mortality with short-term variations in the ambient concentrations of major gaseous pollutants and PM in the Netherlands. The magnitude of the association in the four major urban areas was compared with that in the remainder of the country. Daily cause-specific mortality counts, air quality, temperature, relative humidity, and influenza data were obtained from 1986 to 1994. The relationship between daily mortality and air pollution was modeled using Poisson regression analysis. We adjusted for potential confounding due to long-term and seasonal trends, influenza epidemics, ambient temperature and relative humidity, day of the week, and holidays, using generalized additive models. Influenza episodes were associated with increased mortality up to 3 weeks later. Daily mortality was significantly associated with the concentration of all air pollutants. An increase in the PM10 concentration by 100 micrograms/m3 was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.02 for total mortality. The largest RRs were found for pneumonia deaths. Ozone had the most consistent, independent association with mortality. Particulate air pollution (e.g., PM10, black smoke [BS]) was not more consistently associated with mortality than were the gaseous pollutants SO2 and NO2. Aerosol SO4(-2), NO3-, and BS were more consistently associated with total mortality than was PM10. The RRs for all pollutants were substantially larger in the summer months than in the winter months. The RR of total mortality for PM10 was 1.10 for the summer and 1.03 for the winter. There was no consistent difference between RRs in the four major urban areas and the more rural areas.     

Predictions of U.K. regulated power station contributions to regional air pollution and deposition: a model comparison exercise

Contributions of the emissions from a U.K. regulated fossil-fuel power station to regional air pollution and deposition are estimated using four air quality modeling systems for the year 2003. The modeling systems vary in complexity and emphasis in the way they treat atmospheric and chemical processes, and include the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system in its versions 4.6 and 4.7, a nested modeling system that combines long- and short-range impacts (referred to as TRACK-ADMS [Trajectory Model with Atmospheric Chemical Kinetics-Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System]), and the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model. An evaluation of the baseline calculations against U.K. monitoring network data is performed. The CMAQ modeling system version 4.6 data set is selected as the reference data set for the model footprint comparison. The annual mean air concentration and total deposition footprints are summarized for each modeling system. The footprints of the power station emissions can account for a significant fraction of the local impacts for some species (e.g., more than 50% for SO2 air concentration and non-sea-salt sulfur deposition close to the source) for 2003. The spatial correlation and the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CVRMSE) are calculated between each model footprint and that calculated by the CMAQ modeling system version 4.6. The correlation coefficient quantifies model agreement in terms of spatial patterns, and the CVRMSE measures the magnitude of the difference between model footprints. Possible reasons for the differences between model results are discussed. Finally, implications and recommendations for the regulatory assessment of the impact of major industrial sources using regional air quality modeling systems are discussed in the light of results from this case study.     

use of 1970 census of population data for air pollution research

Today, many more communities in the United States are in a better position to undertake the study of the possible health effects of the air pollution in their environment than has been possible before. Further, such study may furnish baseline data for evaluating the efficacy of air pollution control activity in those cities.

Assessment by city and county control officials can be accomplished by examining the relationship between the demographic characteristics of the area as reported in the 1970 Census of Population, the aerometric measurements now being made routinely in many areas, and mortality in the population as reported to the state office of vital statistics. From the census, detailed demographic or population data will be available by census tract in urban areas. These areas include virtually every U. S. city with a population of 50,000 or more.

The procedures used in the Buffalo and Nashville Air Pollution Studies are discussed with a view toward possible replication by other geographic areas. The need to take account of differences in socio-economic status is emphasized, as is the desirability of obtaining smoking histories. Another major type of air pollution research which is again made possible by the 1970 Census is the comparison of mortality experience, on an agespecific and an age-adjusted basis centered around 1970, for the more than 200 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States.     

Extended effects of air pollution on cardiopulmonary mortality in Vienna

BackgroundCurrent standards for fine particulates and nitrogen dioxide are under revision. Patients with cardiovascular disease have been identified as the largest group which need to be protected from effects of urban air pollution.MethodsWe sought to estimate associations between indicators of urban air pollution and daily mortality using time series of daily TSP, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, O₃ and nontrauma deaths in Vienna (Austria) 2000–2004. We used polynomial distributed lag analysis adjusted for seasonality, daily temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and incidence of influenza as registered by sentinels.ResultsAll three particulate measures and NO₂ were associated with mortality from all causes and from ischemic heart disease and COPD at all ages and in the elderly. The magnitude of the effect was largest for PM_2.5 and NO₂. Best predictor of mortality increase lagged 0–7 days was PM_2.5 (for ischemic heart disease and COPD) and NO₂ (for other heart disease and all causes). Total mortality increase, lagged 0–14 days, per 10 μg m⁻³ was 2.6% for PM_2.5 and 2.9% for NO₂, mainly due to cardiopulmonary and cerebrovascular causes.ConclusionAcute and subacute lethal effects of urban air pollution are predicted by PM_2.5 and NO₂ increase even at relatively low levels of these pollutants. This is consistent with results on hospital admissions and the lack of a threshold. While harvesting (reduction of mortality after short increase due to premature deaths of most sensitive persons) seems to be of minor importance, deaths accumulate during 14 days after an increase of air pollutants. The limit values for PM_2.5 and NO₂ proposed for 2010 in the European Union are unable to prevent serious health effects.     

An investigation of distributed lag models in the context of air pollution and mortality time series analysis

In particulate air pollution mortality time series studies, the particulate air pollution exposure measure used is typically the current day's or the previous day's air pollution concentration or a multi-day moving average air pollution concentration. Distributed lag models (DLMs) that allow for differential air pollution effects that are spread over multiple days are seen as an improvement over using a single- or multi-day moving average air pollution exposure measure. However, at the current time, the statistical properties of DLMs as a measure of air pollution exposure have not been investigated. In this paper, a simulation study is used to investigate the performance of DLMs as a measure of air pollution exposure in comparison with single- and multi-day moving average air pollution exposure measures under various forms for the true effect of air pollution on mortality. The simulation study shows that DLMs offer a more robust measure of the effect of air pollution on mortality and avoid the potential for a large negative bias compared with single- or multi-day moving average air pollution exposure measures. This is important information. In many U.S. cities, particulate air pollution concentrations are observed only once every six days, meaning it is often only possible to use single-day particulate air pollution exposure measures. The results from this paper will help quantify the magnitude of the negative bias that can result from using single-day exposure measures. The implications of this work for future air pollution mortality time series studies are discussed. The data used in this paper are concurrent daily time series of mortality, weather, and particulate air pollution from Cook County, IL, for the period 1987-1994.     

Cumulative effects and threshold levels in air pollution mortality: Data analysis of nine large US cities using the NMMAPS dataset

We examined the existence of thresholds, cumulative effects and the homogeneity of five air pollutants on the relative risk of three mortality outcomes using data from nine major US cities using data from NMMAPS. Overall, PM₁₀ (usually 200-day accumulation) and ozone (3-day accumulation) were the two important predictors of outcome but their effect was not uniform across the nine cities. Many models exhibited thresholds (25–45 μm g/m³ for PM₁₀, and 10–45 ppb for O₃). Our preliminary exploratory analyses suggest that the use of a linear, no threshold, model for pollution studies is not consistent with the observed data. The heterogeneity in the risk estimates across the nine cities suggests combining the local risk estimates to obtain a national risk estimate may not be justifiable and the estimate is likely to be confounded.     

Air pollution and hospital admissions for diseases of the circulatory system in three U.S. metropolitan areas

Generalized additive models were used to analyze the time series of daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases over the period of 1987-1995 in three major metropolitan areas--Cook County, IL; Los Angeles County, CA; and Maricopa County, AZ--in the United States. In Cook and Maricopa Counties, admissions information was only available for the elderly (ages 65 and over), while in Los Angeles County, admissions information was available for all ages. In Cook County, daily monitoring information was available on PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, and O3. In Los Angeles and Maricopa Counties, monitoring information was available daily on the gases, and information on PM10 was available every sixth day. In Los Angeles County, information on PM2.5 was also available every sixth day. In Cook and Los Angeles Counties, associations were found between each pollutant, with the exception of O3, and admissions for cardiovascular disease, with the gases showing the strongest associations. In two-pollutant models with PM and one of the gases, the effect of the gases remained stable, while the effect of PM became unstable and insignificant. In Maricopa County, the gases, with the exception of O3, were weakly associated with hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease, while PM was not. In two-pollutant models with two of CO, SO2, and NO2, the pattern of results is heterogeneous in the three counties. In all three counties, only weak evidence of any association between air pollution and cerebrovascular admissions was found.     

Trans-boundary air pollution over remote islands in Japan: observed data and estimates from a numerical model

Observations of air pollutants were conducted in remote Japanese islands (Oki Island and Okinawa Island) in early spring to clarify the extent of trans-boundary air pollution from the Asian continent. A three-dimensional Eulerian model calculation, which included parameters on emission, transport and transformation of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides and ammonia, was performed to compile sulfate isosurface concentrations over the observational sites. Concentrations of non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-SO₄²⁻) of greater than 10 μg m⁻³ were observed at Oki after the northeastward passage of low-pressure systems in the Sea of Japan. At these times, the weather showed a typical winter pattern and air pollutants over China were transported southeastward to Japan with the northwesterly wind. The model calculation reproduced the observed variations of nss-SO₄²⁻ concentration well, except for one case in which the model calculation could not reproduce the extremely low nss-SO₄²⁻ concentration observed on 8 March. In Hedo (Okinawa Island), we observed long-lasting (3 days) medium concentrations of nss-SO₄²⁻ (approximately 5 μg m⁻³). Although the model reproduced these observed medium concentrations well, in general the observed results were reproduced better for Oki than for Hedo. Under the synoptic weather conditions of early spring, high concentrations of nss-sulfate were sometimes transported to these remote Japanese islands from areas of continental Asia with a strong outflow of air pollutants.     

Epiphyte recolonization of oaks along a gradient of air pollution in South-East England, 1979-1990

The abundances of epiphytes on free-standing oaks (Quercus robur) along a transect extending approximately 70 km SSW from Central London were redetermined annually from 1979 to 1990. During this period SO(2) levels in inner London fell to between one-quarter and one-seventh of levels occurring in the 1960s. The sample trees were also scored annually using Hawksworth and Rose's (1970) scale for predicting SO(2) levels from the epiphytes present. Little evidence was obtained for epiphyte recolinization of oaks at sites within the built-up area. At Epsom Common, on the urban fringe, cover of the pollution-tolerant lichen Lecanora conizaeoides fell, and in the inner suburbs, at Putney Heath, L. conizaeoides and Lepraria incana increased, while the alga Desmococcus viridis declined at this site. These changes might be due to a contraction inwards of zones of peak abundance of L. conizaeoides and D. viridis with decreasing SO(2) levels. However, it is also possible that the changes at Putney Heath resulted from scrub clearance activities and alteration to the microclimate. The cover of the moderately SO(2) tolerant foliose lichen Hypogymnia physodes remained low and static at Putney Heath during the 12-year period. Possible reasons for the poor recolinization of London's oaks by epiphytes are discussed. Particular emphasis is given to the highly acidic bark of oak in the London area (pH2.9-4.0) in comparison with other tree species and with oaks in unpolluted regions.     

Passive air sampler as a tool for long-term air pollution monitoring: Part 1. Performance assessment for seasonal and spatial variations

The potential of passive air sampling devices (polyurethane foam disks) to assess the influence of local sources on the quality of the surrounding environment was investigated. DEZA Valasske Mezirici, a coal tar and mixed tar oils processing plant, and Spolana Neratovice, a chemical factory with the history of high production of organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs), were selected as the point sources of PAHs, and OCPs, respectively. Levels of PCBs, OCPs and PAHs were determined for all sampling sites and sampling periods. The study brought useful data about the air concentrations of POPs in the investigated regions. More important, it provided information on the transport and fate of POPs in the vicinity of local sources of contamination useful for the estimation of their influence. Very good capability of passive samplers to reflect temporal and spatial fluctuation in concentrations of persistent organic pollutants in the ambient air was confirmed which makes them applicable for monitoring on the local scale.     

The varying roles of the dimensions of affluence in air pollution: a regional STIRPAT analysis for Germany

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - STIRPAT models investigate the impacts of population, affluence, and technology on the environment, with most STIRPAT studies revealing positive...     

Analysis of air pollution data at a mixed source location using boosted regression trees

This paper explores the use of boosted regression trees to draw inferences concerning the source characteristics at a location of high source complexity. Models are developed for hourly concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO_X) close to a large international airport. Model development is discussed and methods to quantify model uncertainties developed. It is shown that good explanatory models can be developed and further, allowing for interactions between model variables significantly improves the model fits compared with non-interacting models. Methods are used to determine which variables exert most influence over predicted concentrations and to explore the NO_X dependency for each. Model predictions are used to estimate aircraft take-off contributions to total concentrations of NO_X and determine how these predictions are affected by annual variations in meteorological conditions and runway use patterns. Furthermore, the results relating to the aircraft contributions to total NO_X concentration are compared with those from a more detailed independent field campaign. Finally, we find empirical evidence that plumes from larger aircraft disperse more rapidly from the point of release compared with smaller aircraft. The reasons for this behaviour and the implications are discussed.     

Air pollution and mortality: A history

Mortality is the most important health effect of ambient air pollution and has been studied the longest. The earliest evidence relates to fog episodes but with the development of more precise methods of investigation it is still possible to discern short-term temporal associations with daily mortality at the historically low levels of air pollution that now exist in most developed countries. Another early observation was that mortality was higher in more polluted areas. This has been confirmed by modern cohort studies that account for other potential explanations for such associations. There does not appear to be a threshold of effect within the ambient range of concentrations. Advances in the understanding of air pollution and mortality have been driven by the combined development of methods and biomedical concepts. The most influential methodological developments have been in time-series techniques and the establishment of large cohort studies, both of which are underpinned by advances in data processing and statistical analysis. On the biomedical side two important developments can be identified. One has been the application of the concept of multifactorial disease causation to explaining how air pollution may affect mortality at low levels and why thresholds are not obvious at the population level. The other has been an increasing understanding of how air pollution may plausibly have pathophysiological effects that are remote from the lung interface with ambient air. Together, these advances have had a profound influence on policies to protect public health. Throughout the history of air pollution epidemiology, mortality studies have been central and this will continue because of the widespread availability of mortality data on a large population scale and the weight that mortality carries in estimating impacts for policy development.     

Passive air sampler as a tool for long-term air pollution monitoring: Part 2. Air genotoxic potency screening assessment

The capability of passive air sampling to be employed in the evaluation of direct genotoxicity of ambient air samples was assessed. Genotoxic effects of the total extracts from the polyurethane foam filters exposed for 28 days during a regional passive air sampling campaign were investigated. Twenty sampling sites were selected in Brno city on the area of approximately 20x20 km in October and November 2004. Brno is the second largest city of the Czech Republic, highly industrialized with approximately 370,000 of permanent inhabitants. The levels of PAHs, PCBs, and chlorinated pesticides were determined in all samples. Fraction of each extract was also assayed in the bacterial genotoxicity test using Escherichia coli sulA::lacZ. Complete dose-response relationships of the air extracts were determined. The statistical analysis showed significant correlation between observed biological effects and PAHs concentrations in samples.     

Forecasting air pollution potential: a synoptic climatological approach

This paper describes the development and application of an air pollution potential (APP) forecast model based on a synoptic climatological approach in a heavily industrialized area in Durban, South Africa. The aim of the forecasting procedure, based on a system of orange, red, and all-clear alerts, was to give industry advance warning of periods of poor atmospheric dispersion so that it could take action to reduce emissions. The key meteorological parameter in accurately identifying the commencement of an APP episode was found to be negative surface pressure tendency. Wind direction was the most useful parameter in estimating the end point of an APP episode. The model was very successful in identifying periods of elevated SO2, but there is a need for further refinement in forecasting the end point of an episode.     

The effects of air pollution on the lung cancer mortality in rural areas of eastern China: a multi-region study

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Recently, the burden of lung cancer (LC) has attracted global attention. Meanwhile, LC has become the leading cause of death in China. Many studies...     

Quantitative cancer risk assessment and local mortality burden for ambient air pollution in an eastern Mediterranean City

Health risks posed by ambient air pollutants to the urban Lebanese population have not been well characterized. The aim of this study is to assess cancer risk and mortality burden of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and particulates (PM) based on two field-sampling campaigns conducted during summer and winter seasons in Beirut. Seventy NMHCs were analyzed by TD-GC-FID. PM_2.5 elemental carbon (EC) components were examined using a Lab OC-EC aerosol Analyzer, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were analyzed by GC-MS. The US EPA fraction-based approach was used to assess non-cancer hazard and cancer risk for the hydrocarbon mixture, and the UK Committee on Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) guidelines were followed to determine the PM_2.5 attributable mortality burden. The average cumulative cancer risk exceeded the US EPA acceptable level (10⁻⁶) by 40-fold in the summer and 30-fold in the winter. Benzene was found to be the highest contributor to cancer risk (39–43%), followed by 1,3-butadiene (25–29%), both originating from traffic gasoline evaporation and combustion. The EC attributable average mortality fraction was 7.8–10%, while the average attributable number of deaths (AD) and years of life lost (YLL) were found to be 257–327 and 3086–3923, respectively. Our findings provide a baseline for future air monitoring programs, and for interventions aiming at reducing cancer risk in this population.