组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题,结合序列本身的特点,利用世界能源消费的历史数据,采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化,建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型.实证分析结果表明,提高了模型的拟合和预测精度,拓宽了应用范围.模型中对能源的消费趋势进行预测,为科学地分析能源结构提供了依据.     

组合优化的能源消费量预测模型

针对非等间距灰色系统预测中存在误差较大的问题，结合序列本身的特点，利用世界能源消费的历史数据，采用3种灰色预测模型与神经网络进行组合优化，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费量组合预测模型。实证分析结果表明，提高了模型的拟合和预测精度，拓宽了应用范围。该模型可对能源的消费趋势进行预测，为科学分析能源结构提供依据。     

贵港市土地利用动态变化分析及用地预测

以城市为中心的区域土地是土地资源中资产效益最高的一部分，是人类利用土地影响最为深刻的土地类型。在分析土地利用现状变更调查数据的基础上，应用各类土地利用动态变化模型对贵港市的土地利用动态变化进行分析，并运用灰色系统预测模型对该区域各地类的土地利用时空演变进行了预测，最后提出相应的优化土地利用结构的建议。     

中国工业二氧化硫排放量的灰色预测新模型

中国工业二氧化硫排放量既是一个灰色系统，又是一个离散动态系统。本文基于ＧＰＭ（１）灰色生长曲线，建立了预测中国工业二氧化硫排放量的ＧＩＰＭ（１）这一灰色对数幂函数曲线新模型。应用表明，ＧＩＰＭ（１）不仅与实际具有良好的一致性，也为国家制定工业二氧化硫排放量的控制治理规划提供了理论依据。     

灰色-神经网络算法预测地网腐蚀与优化

随着社会对电力系统的依赖与日增长,对地网腐蚀安全的研究越来越引发关注。地网腐蚀测量的原始数据大部分是离散分布的,难以用传统方法准确对地网未来的腐蚀走向进行预测,因此提出使用灰色神经网络法来分析变电站接地网检测试验的原始数据。通过分析影响接地网腐蚀的主要因素,对相关测量的原始数据进行预处理,建立灰色神经网络模型,最后以某110 k V变电站的相关数据为例,通过灰色神经网络建模进行初步预测,然后利用遗传算法对原始网络进行初始权值与阈值优化,最后将MATLAB计算数据平均误差进行对比的步骤,实现对25℃实验环境下原始数据的分析处理。实验结果表明,在灰色神经网络算法下平均误差为13.42%,优化后,遗传优化算法其平均误差值为6.31%,验证了优化灰色神经网络法能够试验对地网随时间腐蚀的可靠预测。     

基于灰色关联投影的四川省生态环境质量定量研究

生态环境系统是一个包括自然、经济和社会等多个方面,具有信息不确知性和不完全性因素的灰色系统。以四川省为研究区,在构建生态环境评价指标体系的基础上,基于灰色系统理论和矢量投影原理,建立了生态环境质量评价的灰色关联投影模型,并运用所建模型对四川开展生态省建设前后3年的生态环境质量进行评价。结果表明,四川省自开展生态省建设以来,生态环境质量逐步提高,但仍然有进一步提高的空间。     

基于Matlab的灰色系统工具箱wll的构建

灰色预测对波动性较强的序列预测效果较差,但能给出发展趋势.为了科技工作者方便地进行灰色系统的应用研究,采用层次化思想编制了基于Matlab的灰色系统工具箱wll,包含算子集合、矩阵分析、聚类分析、灰色微分方程、灰色预测模型等板块,实际使用非常方便.     

二维水权分配公平性评估的双因素灰色关联分析方法

针对二维水权分配公平性评估的特点,对邓氏灰色关联度进行了拓展,提出了双因素灰色关联度概念,构建了系统比较序列为双因素序列组的灰色关联分析方法.将水量权和排污权的分配比例向量组作为双因素系统比较序列组,将水权理想公平分配比例向量作为系统主行为序列,基于两者之间的双因素灰色关联度,评估二维水权分配方案的公平性.双因素灰色关联分析方法可实现对水量权和排污权分配公平性的有机统一评估.以北江流域为例进行了分析.     

西宁城市化增温效应及其灰色预测模型的建立

利用相邻两气象站年均气温的差值序列进行分析,不仅可以消除气候趋势变化的影响,而且可以准确客观地分析出城市化增温效应的变化幅度.灰色系统(Grey system)理论在短时间序列的应用中具有较高的实效性.通过对1985—1994年10年资料的处理,并利用灰色系统理论建立气温增加幅度动态模型,对西宁市九十年代后期气温可能增加幅度进行预测,其模拟效果很好,关联度高,相对误差小.     

对中国“新三大地带”旅游业发展方向分析——基于灰色局势决策理论

中国区域经济受海洋和国际市场影响较大,距海岸线远近反映与世界市场距离远近和交通的便利程度,由此决定中国区域经济发展水平由东向西逐步递减的基本趋势。依据2008年《中国旅游统计年鉴》及2007年各省(区、市)统计公报,采用灰色局势决策方法对我国宏观区域经济"新三大地带"旅游业发展优势进行局势决策分析,确定发展方向,以期为"新三大地带"旅游业发展和生产力布局提供一定的科学依据。     

Herbicide retention in soil as affected by sugarcane mulch residue

Reducing surface and subsurface losses of herbicides in the soil and thus their potential contamination of water resources is a national concern. This study evaluated the effectiveness of sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) residue (mulch cover) in reducing nonpoint-source contamination of applied herbicides from sugarcane fields. Specifically, the effect of mulch residue on herbicide retention was quantified. Two main treatments were investigated: a no-till treatment and a no-mulch treatment. The amounts of extractable atrazine [2-chloro-4-(isopropylamino)-6-ethylamino-s-triazine], metribuzin [4-amino-6-(1,1-dimethylethyl)-3-(methylthio)-1,2,4-triazin-5(4H)-one], and pendimethalin [N-(ethylpropyl)-3,4-dimethyl-2,6-dinitroaniline] from the mulch residue and the surface soil layer were quantified during the 1999 and 2000 growing seasons. Significant amounts of applied herbicides were intercepted by the mulch residue. Extractable concentrations were at least one order of magnitude higher for the mulch residue compared with that retained by the soil. Moreover, the presence of mulch residue on the sugarcane rows was highly beneficial in minimizing runoff losses of the herbicides applied. When the residue was not removed, a reduction in runoff-effluent concentrations, as much as 50%, for atrazine and pendimethalin was realized. Moreover, the presence of mulch residue resulted in consistently lower estimates for rates of decay or disappearance of atrazine and pendimethalin in the surface soil.     

泗阳县黄河故道滩区综合开发模式研究和实践

1989年以来,泗阳县运用系统工程的方法,对黄河故道滩区洪涝沙碱旱的综合治理和滩区三荒资源的综合开发利用进行了研究和实践,创立了黄河故道滩区综合开发模式,缩短了开发周期,提高了开发效益,为黄淮流域季节性沙土河道滩区的治理开发树立了一个典范。本文将扼要介绍模式的提出、建立和实施效果。     

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of an olive stone based biorefinery

Olive tree cultivation is spreading worldwide as a consequence of beneficial effects of olive oil consumption. Olive oil production process and table olive industries are the major sources of olive stones. Currently, this by-product is used in direct combustion to produce energy as electricity or heat. However, there are other possibilities for taking full advantage of a renewable source of interesting compounds. In this work the techno-economic and environmental assessment of two biorefinery schemes and its comparison with the direct combustion (base case) of this residue are presented. The first biorefinery scheme describes the integrated production of xylitol, furfural, ethanol and poly-3-hydroxybutyrate (PHB). The second biorefinery scheme considers the production of xylitol, furfural, ethanol and PHB integrated to a cogeneration system for producing bioenergy from the solid residues resulting from the mentioned processes. The results showed that in the first biorefinery scheme, the net profit margin is approximately 53%, while the second present a net profit margin of 6%.     

城市水资源承载力研究现状及其趋势

水资源是人类生存与生活、社会经济持续发展不可缺少的自然资源,也是保证生态环境良性循环的控制性要素.区域能否实现持续发展,很大程度上取决于水资源的保障程度.城市是地区经济的核心,因此对城市水资源承载力进行深入研究,其意义重大.简要阐述了城市水资源承载力研究的现状和发展趋势.     

Landscape design,planning, and management: An approach to the analysis of vegetation

The process of analyzing vegetation in terms of its suitability for various non-consumptive uses is primitive in comparison with systems for evaluating other resources such as soil and topography. This paper proposes a framework for developing a standardized, quantitative vegetation analysis system based on plant ecology methods. A tentative scheme under study in Wisconsin is presented for discussion purposes.     

Atrazine sorption-desorption hysteresis by sugarcane mulch residue

Sorption and desorption kinetics are essential components for modeling the movement and retention of applied agricultural chemicals in soils and the fraction of chemicals susceptible to runoff. In this study, we investigated the retention characteristics of sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrid) mulch residue for atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) based on studies of sorption-desorption kinetics. A sorption kinetic batch method was used to quantify retention of the mulch residue for a wide range of atrazine concentrations and reaction times. Desorption was performed following 504 h of sorption using successive dilutions, followed by methanol extraction. Atrazine retention by the mulch residue was well described using a linear model where the partitioning coefficient (K(d)) increased with reaction time from 10.40 to 23.4 cm3 g(-1) after 2 and 504 h, respectively. Values for mulch residue K(d) were an order of magnitude higher than those found for Commerce silt loam (fine-silty, mixed, superactive, nonacid, thermic Fluvaquentic Endoaquepts) where the sugarcane crop was grown. A kinetic multireaction model was successful in describing sorption behavior with reaction time. The model was equally successful in describing observed hysteretic atrazine behavior during desorption for all input concentrations. The model was concentration independent where one set of model parameters, which was derived from all batch results, was valid for the entire atrazine concentration range. Average atrazine recovery following six successive desorption steps were 63.67 +/- 4.38% of the amount adsorbed. Moreover, a hysteresis coefficient based on the difference in the area between sorption and desorption isotherms was capable of quantifying hysteresis of desorption isotherms.     

残酸再利用工艺技术

针对油田酸化过程中返排出的残酸处理困难,造成较大污染、浪费等问题,分析了残酸作为调剖剂的价值,研究了利用“残酸”进行调剖的工艺技术,并进行了现场试验,投入产出比为1:28,取得了较好的经济效益和社会效益,为”残酸”的再利用和环境保护找到了一条有效途径。     

林地外部效应评估研究势在必行

目前,国内外对林地外部效应评估的研究十分缺乏。此项研究不但有利于建立森林环境资源产业,完善国民经济核算体系,而且为合理确定林地资源效益补偿标准提供依据,并促进广义的森林环境资源市场体系的建立和林地资源的最佳配置。     

京津冀协同发展的生态环境保护战略研究

随着中共中央在2014年将京津冀协同发展上升为国家战略,京津冀区域再次成为我国北方重要的经济增长极。然而,京津冀地区当前环境形势仍十分严峻,是全国水资源最短缺,大气污染、水污染最严重的区域,生态环境是京津冀协同发展需要尽快补齐的突出短板。本文深刻分析了京津冀区域当前大气、水、生态三个领域存在的突出问题以及内在的体制机制不协调。在此基础上,明确了解决京津冀生态环保总体思路,并分别从环境功能区划、生态保护红线、大气联防联控、跨界水环境治理、环境监管联动以及体制政策创新等方面提出针对性解决措施,为国家开展京津冀生态环境协同治理提供参考借鉴。     

安徽省资源、环境、经济系统协调发展评价

以系统科学思想为基础，根据1990-2005年间安徽省的资源、环境与经济发展的实际情况，构建了一套分层次的协调发展评价指标体系，并运用主成分方法、坎蒂雷赋权法将相应层次的指标进行综合，根据协调发展的含义建立数学模型，从协调度、协调发展度、协调发展趋势指数的角度定量分析了安徽省资源、环境、经济系统协调发展的状况。该研究思路可作为其它地区在进行同类分析时提供参考。