Neural network-based study for predicting ground-level ozone concentration in large urban areas, applied to the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Events of high concentration of ground-level ozone constitute a matter of major concern in large urban areas in terms of air quality, and public health. In the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), air quality data generated by a network of air quality measuring stations have been used in a number of studies correlating ozone formation with different variables. A study was carried out on the application of neural network models in the identification of typical sceneries leading to high ground-level ozone concentrations in the SPMA. The results were then applied in the selection of variables, and in the definition of neural network-based models for estimating ozone levels from meteorological variables. When combined with existing weather prediction tools, the models can be applied in the prediction of ozone levels in the SPMA     

Relation between ozone levels and NOx and VOC emissions in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area for an episode of August, 1998

At present, major efforts in air pollution control for urban areas are oriented to reduce ozone levels to below standards. Models are a useful tool for air quality assessment and they can help to select the best strategy plan to reduce ozone levels in a polluted area. Like other large cities in the world, Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) has registered high levels of ozone and particulate matter for several decades. In order to establish appropriate strategy plans, a photochemical model has been used for an episode that occurred in 1999. Simple emission control strategies have been examined.     

Air pollution and the influence of sources on Paulinia (Brazil) and surroundings

The air quality in the industrial area and surroundings of the city of Paulinia (state of Sao Paulo, Brazil) has been investigated by analysing the concentration of air pollutants (SO₂, PM₁₀, NO, NO₂, CO and ozone) and identifying the main sources of air pollution. A mobile pollutant monitoring unit was used to collect the data at five different sites from November 2000 to July 2002. Critical pollutants were determined based on air quality standards, and sources were identified by principal component analysis. Photochemical reactions play an important role in Paulinia's air pollution: three out of five monitored sites showed levels exceeding the standard air quality of ozone. SO₂ and PM₁₀ appeared as pollutants deserving special attention. All the monitored sites showed vehicles and industrial plants (which release SO₂) to be significant sources of pollution. Depending on the location, ozone was related mainly with vehicular or industrial sources.     

Urban Air Pollution in Latin America and the Caribbean

Urban air pollution has become an increasing problem in Latin America and the Caribbean. One reason is the rapid expansion in the size of the urban population. This phenomenon is associated with an increase in the number of vehicles and in energy utilization which, in addition to industrial processes often concentrated in the cities, are the primary sources of air pollution in Latin American cities. The air quality standards established in such countries are frequently exceeded although control programs have been implemented. The urban areas more affected by anthropogenic pollutant emissions are Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile; and Mexico City. In Latin America, the population of cities with high priority air pollution problems include approximately 81 million people or 26.5 percent of the total urban population of Latin America, corresponding to 30 million children (< 15 years), 47 million adults (15-59 years) and 4 million elderly people (≧60 years) who are exposed to air pollutant levels that exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for adequate health protection.     

Study of the weekday-weekend variation of air pollutants in a typical Mediterranean coastal town

A study of the air pollution in the Greek coastal town Volos was performed using the available data of the last ten years. Quantile analysis showed that ozone concentrations during weekends were higher by 5–10% in comparison to those on weekdays, while the inverse was observed for the other pollutants, indicating the occurrence of the so called 'weekend effect'. Analysis of the maximum values of the high ozone period showed even higher differences. The pollutants NO, NO₂, CO, and SO₂ were lower during weekends compared to weekdays, by about 30%, 20%, 25% and 10% respectively.     

Investigation of the influence of transport from oil and natural gas regions on elevated ozone levels in the northern Colorado front range

The Northern Colorado Front Range (NCFR) has been in exceedance of the ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) since 2004, which has led to much debate over the sources of ozone precursors to the region, as this area is home to both the Denver, CO, metropolitan area and the Denver–Julesburg Basin, which has experienced rapid growth of oil and natural gas (O&NG) operations and associated emissions. Several recent studies have reported elevated levels of atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as a result of O&NG emissions and the potential for significant ozone production from these emissions, despite implementation of stricter O&NG VOC emissions regulations in 2008. Approximately 88% of 1-hr elevated ozone events (>75 ppbv) occur during June–August, indicating that elevated ozone levels are driven by regional photochemistry. Analyses of surface ozone and wind observations from two sites, namely, South Boulder and the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory, both near Boulder, CO, show a preponderance of elevated ozone events associated with east-to-west airflow from regions with O&NG operations in the N-ESE, and a relatively minor contribution of transport from the Denver Metropolitan area to the SE-S. Transport from upwind areas associated with abundant O&NG operations accounts for on the order of 65% (mean for both sites) of 1-hr averaged elevated ozone levels, while the Denver urban corridor accounts for 9%. These correlations contribute to mounting evidence that air transport from areas with O&NG operation has a significant impact on ozone and air quality in the NCFR.

Implications: This article builds on several previous pieces of research that implied significant contributions from oil and natural gas emissions on ozone production in the Northern Colorado Front Range. By correlating increased ozone events with transport analyses we show that there is a high abundance of transport events with elevated ozone originating from the Denver–Julesburg oil and natural gas basin. These findings will help air quality regulators to better assess contributing sources to ozone production and in directing policies to curb ozone pollution in this region.     

Ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta region: Analysis of data from a recently established regional air quality monitoring network

The ambient air quality monitoring data of 2006 and 2007 from a recently established Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional air quality monitoring network are analyzed to investigate the characteristics of ground-level ozone in the region. Four sites covering urban, suburban, rural and coastal areas are selected as representatives for detailed analysis in this paper. The results show that there are distinct seasonal and diurnal cycles in ground-level ozone across the PRD region. Low ozone concentrations are generally observed in summer, while high O₃ levels are typically found in autumn. The O₃ diurnal variations in the urban areas are larger than those at the rural sites. The O₃ concentrations showed no statistically significant difference between weekend and weekdays in contrast to the findings in many other urban areas in the world. The average ozone concentrations are lower in urban areas compared to the sites outside urban centers. Back trajectories are used to show the major air-mass transport patterns and to examine the changes in ozone from the respective upwind sites to a site in the center of the PRD (Wanqingsha). The results show higher average ozone concentrations at the upwind sites in the continental and coastal air masses, but higher 1 h-max O₃ concentrations (by 8–16 ppbv) at the center PRD site under each of air-mass category, suggesting that the ozone pollution in the PRD region exhibits both regional and super-regional characteristics.     

Long-term meteorologically independent trend analysis of ozone air quality at an urban site in the greater Houston area

The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and high humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique, used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] Air Quality System [AQS] Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site, located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990–2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000 and 2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, particularly lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), whereas 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post 2000 could be attributed to NO_x emission reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000–2016 and 0.155 ± 0.005 ppb/yr for the overall period of 1990–2016.

Implications: The effectiveness of air emission controls can be evaluated by developing long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influences. The KZ filter technique is a well-established method to separate an air quality time series into short-term, seasonal, and long-term components. This paper applies the KZ filter technique to MDA8 ozone data between 1990 and 2016 at an urban site in the greater Houston area and estimates the variance accounted for by the primary meteorological control variables. Estimates for linear trends of MDA8 ozone are calculated and underlying causes are investigated to provide a guidance for further investigation into air quality management of the greater Houston area.     

Photochemical air pollutant levels and ozone phytotoxicity in the region of Mesogia–Attica, Greece

The levels of photochemical air pollutants: O₃, NO and NO₂, were monitored in Athens and in the neighbouring region of the Mesogia plain (Spata, Artemis and Markopoulo) from 1 May–31 August 2000. Phytodetection of ozone was also conducted using bioindicator plants of Bel-W3 and Zichnomirodata (KK6/5) tobacco varieties. The average maximum daily O3 concentration was 60–75 ppb, while the 24 hour average ranged from 40–65 ppb. The AOT40 (ppb hours) index was very high in Athens (16 679 over 121 days), Spata (16 325 over 110 days), Artemis (8093 over 22 days) and Markopoulo (18 646 over 113 days), suggesting potentially phytotoxic ozone levels. The ozone bioindicator plants of Bel-W3 and KK6/5 tobacco varieties were highly injured in all regions confirming the phytotoxicity of those ozone levels. The levels of NO and NO₂ recorded at the three stations, in the Mesogia plain, were considerably lower than those occurring in Athens. The data presented here provide important background information concerning pollution levels in the Mesogia plain shortly before the operation of the new international airport 'Eleftherios Venizelos' in this region (March 2001).     

Photochemical reactivities of common solvents: comparison between urban and regional domains

Solvents are one of the most abundant sources of anthropogenic VOCs in the atmosphere, and can comprise a large number of organic compounds having different impacts on the rate and amount of ozone formation. A three-dimensional photochemical air quality model has been used to study the relative impacts of eight solvents, acetone, ethane, ethanol, isobutane, m-xylene, tertiary butyl acetate (TBA), para-chlorobenzotrifluoride (PCBTF) and benzotrifluoride (BTF) in three very different domains: Los Angeles, an urban area with high ozone and NO_x levels; the Swiss Plateau, a more regional domain with much lower ozone and NO_x levels: and Mexico City, a very high VOC urban area with high ozone levels. The results show that there can be a wide range of VOC reactivities under variable environmental conditions. Variability also exists between metrics, which are used to quantify reactivity. In most cases, halogenated aromatics were the least reactive and isobutane and m-xylene the most. The results here, finding that normalized reactivities are less variable than the absolute reactivity, support the applicability of relative VOC reactivity scales for use in air quality management.     

Characteristics,determinants, and spatial variations of ambient fungal levels in the subtropical Taipei metropolis

This study was conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial distributions, compositions, and determinants of ambient aeroallergens in Taipei, Taiwan, a subtropical metropolis. We monitored ambient culturable fungi in Shin-Jhuang City, an urban area, and Shi-Men Township, a rural area, in Taipei metropolis from 2003 to 2004. We collected ambient fungi in the last week of every month during the study period, using duplicate Burkard portable samplers and Malt Extract Agar. The median concentration of total fungi was 1339 colony-forming units m⁻³ of air over the study period. The most prevalent fungi were non-sporulating fungi, Cladosporium, Penicillium, Curvularia and Aspergillus at both sites. Airborne fungal concentrations and diversity of fungal species were generally higher in urban than in rural areas. Most fungal taxa had significant seasonal variations, with higher levels in summer. Multivariate analyses showed that the levels of ambient fungi were associated positively with temperature, but negatively with ozone and several other air pollutants. Relative humidity also had a significant non-linear relationship with ambient fungal levels. We concluded that the concentrations and the compositions of ambient fungi are diverse in urban and rural areas in the subtropical region. High ambient fungal levels were related to an urban environment and environmental conditions of high temperature and low ozone levels.     

Trends of exhaust emissions from gasoline motor vehicles in the metropolitan area of Mexico city

Light duty gasoline vehicles account for most of CO, hydrocarbons and NO_x emissions to the urban environment in the metropolitan area of Mexico City. In order to ameliorate air pollution, several control measures have been imposed in the last decade, such as: up-grade of gasoline's quality, stringent environmental standards, and catalytic converters. On the other hand and from the beginning of 2001, Tier I emission standards became mandatory for all new model year sold in the country. Car manufacturers in Mexico do not guarantee the performance of their exhaust emissions systems for a given mileage. In this work, we present results on brand new vehicles that indicate that NO_x emission factors, though they are within the Tier I standard, deteriorate rapidly with the travelled distance (mileage).     

Interaction between air pollution and meteorological parameters in Erzurum, Turkey

In recent years, the rapid increase in population density has caused increases in the consumption of fuel, and the outdoor air quality has deteriorated in the crowded urban areas of Turkey. Erzurum, a city in the eastern part of Turkey, is influenced by air pollutants such as SO₂ and suspended particles. It is known that, in general, the air pollution concentrations have a close relationship with meteorological factors. In this study, the relationship between outdoor air quality data and meteorological factors, such as wind speed, rainfall, temperature, sunshine hours and relative humidity, is statistically analysed, using the code SPSS. According to the results obtained through multiple linear regression analysis, there are moderate levels of correlation between SO₂ and particle concentrations and meteorological factors in Erzurum.     

Studies of air quality predictors based on neural networks

In recent years, urban air pollution has emerged as an acute problem because of its negative effect on health and living conditions. Regional air quality problems, in general, are linked to violations of specified air quality standards. The current study aims to find neural network based air quality predictors, which can work with a limited number of datasets and are robust enough to handle data with noise and errors. A number of available variations of neural network models, such as the Recurrent Network Model (RNM), the Change Point Detection Model with RNM (CPDM), the Sequential Network Construction Model (SNCM), the Self Organising Feature Model (SOFM), and the Moving Window Model (MWM), were implemented using MATLAB software for predicting air quality. Developed models were run to simulate and forecast based on the annual average data for 15 years from 1985 to 1999 for seven parameters, viz. VOC, NO_x, CO, SO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and NH₃ for one county of California, USA. The models were fitted with first nine years of data to predict data for remaining six years. The models, in general, could predict air quality patterns with modest accuracy. However, the SOFM model performed extremely well in comparison with the other models for predicting long-term (annual) data.     

Air pollution at the Bily Kriz mountains in the Czech Republic

An evaluation of air pollution at the Bily Kriz mountains in the Czech Republic is given. Annual daily concentrations of sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), particulate matter of size 10 mm (PM₁₀) and ozone (O₃) measured in the years 1994–2000 are presented. Air pollution at Bily Kriz is assessed with the reference to the European Union Directives and the standards adopted by the Czech Republic. In general, the concentrations of air pollutants were lower in 1996 for ozone and decreased for SO₂, NO_x and PM₁₀ from 1994. The daily values of SO₂ and PM₁₀ exceeded the European Union limits in approximately 0.0% and 5.5% of cases, respectively. The values of ozone exceeded the limits for the considered period.     

Modelling the photochemical pollution over the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre,Brazil

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the photochemical pollution over the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (MAPA), Brazil, where high concentrations of ozone have been registered during the past years. Due to the restricted spatial coverage of the monitoring air quality network, a numerical modelling technique was selected and applied to this assessment exercise. Two different chemistry-transport models – CAMx and CALGRID – were applied for a summer period, driven by the MM5 meteorological model. The meteorological model performance was evaluated comparing its results to available monitoring data measured at the Porto Alegre airport. Validation results point out a good model performance. It was not possible to evaluate the chemistry models performance due to the lack of adequate monitoring data. Nevertheless, the model intercomparison between CAMx and CALGRID shows a similar behaviour in what concerns the simulation of nitrogen dioxide, but some discrepancies concerning ozone. Regarding the fulfilment of the Brazilian air quality targets, the simulated ozone concentrations surpass the legislated value in specific periods, mainly outside the urban area of Porto Alegre. The ozone formation is influenced by the emission of pollutants that act as precursors (like the nitrogen oxides emitted at Porto Alegre urban area and coming from a large refinery complex) and by the meteorological conditions.     

Rural and Urban Ozone Relationships In New York State

High ozone concentrations, often in excess of the national ambient air quality standard for photochemical oxidants, have been measured simultaneously in urban and rural areas of New York State. Average daily rural ozone concentrations were found to correlate well with daily maximum urban ozone concentrations suggesting a common source. Estimations of the quantity of ozone advectively transported into New York State are more than an order of magnitude greater than estimations of the potential photochemical generation of ozone from hydrocarbon emissions within New York State. It is suggested thai the high rural ozone levels are not primarily due to the transport of ozone and ozone precursors from olher urban areas, but are rather due to natural phenomena such as photochemical generation from naturally occurring precursors or transport of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere. The effectiveness of a hydrocarbon control strategy for New York State to meet the ambient air quality standard for photochemical oxidants when background levels themselves may be above the standard is questioned.     

Study on the formation and transport of ozone in relation to the air quality management and vegetation protection in Tenerife (Canary Islands)

An experimental study on the formation and transport of ozone in ambient air was performed in Tenerife (Canary Islands) in order to investigate the processes affecting ozone levels and air quality. The special features of Tenerife (prevalence of the trade wind pattern (NE), orography and the specific location of the local ozone sources) permit to quantify the role of the ‘long-range transport from northern latitudes' versus the ‘formation and transport of ozone downwind of the main urban areas' of Tenerife. Levels of O₃, NO₂ and O_X were monitored in different types of environments to achieve this purpose. The results showed that: (1) upwind of the urban areas ozone is mainly transported from the ocean by trade winds, (2) local ozone titration (by NO) and ozone replenishment from the ocean are the main causes of ozone variations in urban and suburban areas, and (3) photochemical ozone production occurs downwind of the urban areas. Photochemical production causes daylight O₃ and O_X levels downwind of urban areas to be frequently (60% and 35% days/year, respectively) higher than upwind of the urban sites (O₃ and O_X excess frequently in the range 5–20 ppbv). Due to the above processes, different daily ozone cycles occur in short distances (<30 km), with maximum O₃ levels during daylight or night depending on the site. Ozone phytotoxicity was assessed by calculating the AOT40 index upwind and downwind of the main urban areas. The critical value for the 5-day-AOT40 index was simultaneously exceeded at the two sites (few times/year) during long-range transport events. During the additional exceedances of the critical value downwind of the urban area, relatively high 5-day-AOT40 values were recorded upwind of the urban site. Thus, long-range transport from northern latitudes may produce relatively high 5-days-AOT40 levels in the oceanic boundary layer. These results are important for the protection of the large number of endemic plants in the Canaries. The conceptual model discussed in this study may be qualitatively applied to other islands which possess features similar to those of Tenerife.     

Local emissions trading in developing countries as a transitional strategy toward international greenhouse gas trading: a Beijing example

As is the case in most developing countries, China relies on command-and-control regulation to control air pollution. While it has instituted a modest air pollution levy system in the past 20 years for emissions in excess of standards, the effect on emission levels has been minimal. This paper focuses on how to use emissions trading as a policy instrument to achieve cost-effective reductions in air pollution in Beijing. Emissions or allowance trading has been widely applied to air pollution control in the USA during the past 25 years. Three of the most recent programmes will be examined, which provide applicable experience for possible SO₂ and NO_x trading in the Beijing region. A trading strategy for Beijing will be proposed by comparing the economic and political institutional differences between the USA and China, which could eventually facilitate acceptance of an international greenhouse gas trading system.