Reflecting on progress since the 2005 NARSTO emissions inventory report

Emission inventories are the foundation for cost-effective air quality management activities. In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American emissions inventories and made recommendations for improving their effectiveness. This paper reviews the recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. The findings reveal that all emissions inventory improvement areas identified by the 2005 NARSTO publication have been explored and implemented to some degree. The U.S. National Emissions Inventory has become more detailed and has incorporated new research into previously under-characterized sources such as fine particles and biomass burning. Additionally, it is now easier to access the emissions inventory and the documentation of the inventory via the internet. However, many emissions-related research needs exist, on topics such as emission estimation methods, speciation, scalable emission factor development, incorporation of new emission measurement techniques, estimation of uncertainty, top-down verification, and analysis of uncharacterized sources. A common theme throughout this retrospective summary is the need for increased coordination among stakeholders. Researchers and inventory developers must work together to ensure that planned emissions research and new findings can be used to update the emissions inventory. To continue to address emissions inventory challenges, industry, the scientific community, and government agencies need to continue to leverage resources and collaborate as often as possible. As evidenced by the progress noted, continued investment in and coordination of emissions inventory activities will provide dividends to air quality management programs across the country, continent, and world.

Implications: In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American air pollution emissions inventories. This paper reviews the eight recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. Although progress has been made, many opportunities exist for the scientific agencies, industry, and government agencies to leverage resources and collaborate to continue improving emissions inventories.     

Neural network-based study for predicting ground-level ozone concentration in large urban areas, applied to the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Events of high concentration of ground-level ozone constitute a matter of major concern in large urban areas in terms of air quality, and public health. In the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA), air quality data generated by a network of air quality measuring stations have been used in a number of studies correlating ozone formation with different variables. A study was carried out on the application of neural network models in the identification of typical sceneries leading to high ground-level ozone concentrations in the SPMA. The results were then applied in the selection of variables, and in the definition of neural network-based models for estimating ozone levels from meteorological variables. When combined with existing weather prediction tools, the models can be applied in the prediction of ozone levels in the SPMA     

Weekday vs. Weekend Ambient Ozone Concentrations: Discussion and Hypotheses with Focus on Northern California

Abstract

Since the early 1970s, researchers and data analysts have reported differences between weekday and weekend ozone concentrations, with higher ozone concentrations occurring on Sundays in some locations. At that time, the phenomenon was referred to as the “Sunday effect.” In the late 1980s, additional papers focused on weekday/weekend differences in air quality in the South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin.

Analyses of ozone concentrations measured at a number of locations in northern California reveal that average ozone concentrations are frequently higher on weekends than on weekdays. Violations of the California 0.09 ppm 1-hour air quality standard for ozone also occur in disproportionately greater frequency on weekends. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is based largely on the differences between weekday and weekend emission patterns. We believe that the observed differences may provide information regarding which pollutant reduction strategy, NO_x or ROG control, may be more effective in reducing ambient ozone concentrations. For the northern California region, the presence of higher weekend ozone concentrations suggests the need for ROG control is greater than for NO_x control. If both NO_x and ROG are to be controlled, it is important to understand the interdependence of the two pollutants in forming ozone. With the current uncertainty and debate regarding official vehicular emission inventories, this phenomenon emphasizes the importance of using observation-based data to examine ambient pollution and emission relationships. This natural experiment of varying emissions provides an interesting test case for sophisticated air pollution model performance and evaluation.

Using a Bay Area emission inventory and an estimate of its change from weekday to weekend, combined with a generic Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach (EKMA) diagram, we demonstrate the weekend effect. In addition, changes in the Bay Area emission inventory from 1980 to 1990, when combined with the EKMA diagram, also show why the weekend effect is more evident in the 1990s.

It is our hypothesis that the presence of the weekend effect, positive or negative, combined with changes in emission changes, provides a simple clue to whether an area is NO_xor ROG limited with respect to ozone formation.     

Influence of uncertain reaction rates on ozone sensitivity to emissions

Air quality models rely upon simplified photochemical mechanisms to efficiently represent the thousands of chemical species that interact to form air pollution. Uncertainties in the chemical reaction rate constants and photolysis frequencies that comprise those mechanisms can generate uncertainty in the estimation of pollutant concentrations and their responsiveness to emission controls. A high-order sensitivity analysis technique is applied to quantify the extent to which reaction rate uncertainties influence estimates of ozone concentrations and their sensitivities to precursor emissions during an air pollution episode in Houston, Texas. Several reactions were found to have much larger proportional effects on ozone’s sensitivities to emissions than on its concentrations. In particular, uncertainties in photolysis frequencies and in the rate of reaction between NO₂ and OH to form nitric acid can significantly influence the magnitude and sign of peak ozone sensitivity to nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions. Ozone sensitivity to VOCs exhibits a much more muted response to uncertainties in the reaction rate constants and photolysis frequencies considered here. The results indicate the importance of accurate reaction rate constants to predicting the ozone impacts resulting from NO_x emission controls.     

Relation between ozone levels and NOx and VOC emissions in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area for an episode of August, 1998

At present, major efforts in air pollution control for urban areas are oriented to reduce ozone levels to below standards. Models are a useful tool for air quality assessment and they can help to select the best strategy plan to reduce ozone levels in a polluted area. Like other large cities in the world, Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) has registered high levels of ozone and particulate matter for several decades. In order to establish appropriate strategy plans, a photochemical model has been used for an episode that occurred in 1999. Simple emission control strategies have been examined.     

Receptor Model Evaluation of the Southeast Michigan Ozone Study Ambient NMOC Measurements

Abstract

Large-scale studies like the Southeast Michigan Ozone Study (SEMOS) have focused attention on quantifying and spedating inventories for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). One approach for evaluating the accuracy of a VOC emission inventory is the development of a chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model for ambient non-methane organic compound (NMOC) measurements. CMB evaluations of ambient hydrocarbon data provide a sample-specific allocation of emissions to individual source categories. This study summarizes the results of an application of the CMB model to the NMOC data from the SEMOS study. Comparison of CMB results with emission inventory values for the Detroit area show that vehicle emissions are well represented by the inventory, as are architectural coatings and coke ovens. Estimated emissions from petroleum refineries and graphic arts industries are much lower in the inventory than determined from the receptor allocation. Under-reporting of fugitive VOC emissions from petroleum refineries is an ongoing problem. Emissions from graphic arts industries are underestimated in the inventory partly because of the broad characterization of the emission factor (i.e., mass emitted/capita), which may be less useful when specific locations and days are under consideration. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of the CMB approach when used prospectively to track the implementation of emission control strategies. While vehicle emission concentrations were unchanged from 1988 to 1993, measurement-based CMB results suggest a decrease in evaporative emissions during this time period resulting from Reid vapor pressure (RVP) reductions (from 11.0 psi in 1988 to 8.6 psi in 1993) and fleet turnover. Changes in emissions from coke plants and petroleum refineries were also seen in the CMB allocations for these sources.     

Revised estimates of construction activity and emissions: Effects on ozone and elemental carbon concentrations in southern California

Emissions from diesel-powered construction equipment are an important source of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and particulate matter (PM). A new emission inventory for construction equipment emissions is developed based on surveys of diesel fuel use; the revised inventory is compared to current emission inventories. California's OFFROAD model estimates are 4.5 and 3.1 times greater, for NO_x and PM respectively, than the fuel-based estimates developed here. The most relevant uncertainties are the overall amount of construction activity/diesel fuel use, exhaust emission factors for PM and NO_x, and the spatial allocation of emissions to county level and finer spatial scales. Construction permit data were used in this study to estimate spatial distributions of emissions; the resulting distribution is well correlated with population growth. An air quality model was used to assess the impacts of revised emission estimates. Increases of up to 15 ppb in predicted peak ozone concentrations were found in southern California. Elemental carbon and fine particle mass concentrations were in better agreement with observations using revised emission estimates, whereas negative bias in predictions of ambient NO_x concentrations increased.     

An environmental decision-making tool for evaluating ground-level ozone-related health effects

A computer model called the Ozone Risk Assessment Model (ORAM) was developed to evaluate the health effects caused by ground-level ozone (O3) exposure. ORAM was coupled with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Third-Generation Community Multiscale Air Quality model (Models-3/CMAQ), the state-of-the-art air quality model that predicts O3 concentration and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of O3 precursors (basically, oxides of nitrogen [NOx] and volatile organic compounds) are varied. The principal analyses in ORAM are exposure model performance evaluation, health-effects calculations (expected number of respiratory hospital admissions), economic valuation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through a Monte Carlo simulation. As a demonstration of the system, ORAM was applied to the eastern Tennessee region, and the entire O3 season was simulated for a base case (typical emissions) and three different emission scenarios. The results indicated that a synergism occurs when reductions in NOx emissions from mobile and point sources were applied simultaneously. A 12.9% reduction in asthma hospital admissions is expected when both mobile and point source NOx emissions are reduced (50 and 70%, respectively) versus a 5.8% reduction caused by mobile source and a 3.5% reduction caused by point sources when these emission sources are reduced individually.     

Modeling and direct sensitivity analysis of biogenic emissions impacts on regional ozone formation in the Mexico-U.S. border area

A spatially and temporally resolved biogenic hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions inventory has been developed for a region along the Mexico-U.S. border area. Average daily biogenic non-methane organic gases (NMOG) emissions for the 1700 x 1000 km2 domain were estimated at 23,800 metric tons/day (62% from Mexico and 38% from the United States), and biogenic NOx was estimated at 1230 metric tons/day (54% from Mexico and 46% from the United States) for the July 18-20, 1993, ozone episode. The biogenic NMOG represented 74% of the total NMOG emissions, and biogenic NOx was 14% of the total NOx. The CIT photochemical airshed model was used to assess how biogenic emissions impact air quality. Predicted ground-level ozone increased by 5-10 ppb in most rural areas, 10-20 ppb near urban centers, and 20-30 ppb immediately downwind of the urban centers compared to simulations in which only anthropogenic emissions were used. A sensitivity analysis of predicted ozone concentration to emissions was performed using the decoupled direct method for three dimensional air quality models (DDM-3D). The highest positive sensitivity of ground-level ozone concentration to biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic VOC emissions results in increasing ozone concentrations) was predicted to be in locations with high NOx levels, (i.e., the urban areas). One urban center--Houston--was predicted to have a slight negative sensitivity to biogenic NO emissions (i.e., increasing biogenic NO emissions results in decreasing local ozone concentrations). The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source VOC emissions, all positive, were mainly in the urban areas. The highest sensitivities of ozone concentrations to on-road mobile source NOx emissions were predicted in both urban (either positive or negative sensitivities) and rural (positive sensitivities) locations.     

The sensitivity of modeled ozone to the temporal distribution of point, area, and mobile source emissions in the eastern United States

Ozone remains one of the most recalcitrant air pollution problems in the US. Hourly emissions fields used in air quality models (AQMs) generally show less temporal variability than corresponding measurements from continuous emissions monitors (CEM) and field campaigns would imply. If emissions control scenarios to reduce emissions at peak ozone forming hours are to be assessed with AQMs, the effect of emissions' daily variability on modeled ozone must be understood. We analyzed the effects of altering all anthropogenic emissions' temporal distributions by source group on 2002 summer-long simulations of ozone using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) v4.5 and the Carbon Bond IV (CBIV) chemical mechanism with 12 km resolution. We find that when mobile source emissions were made constant over the course of a day, 8-h maximum ozone predictions changed by ±7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in many urban areas on days when ozone concentrations greater than 80 ppbv were simulated in the base case. Increasing the temporal variation of point sources resulted in ozone changes of +6 and −6 ppbv, but only for small areas near sources. Changing the daily cycle of mobile source emissions produces substantial changes in simulated ozone, especially in urban areas at night; results suggest that shifting the emissions of NO_x from day to night, for example in electric powered vehicles recharged at night, could have beneficial impacts on air quality.     

Evolution of air quality in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area and its relation with public policies

The Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA) is one of the largest urban regions in the world, with more than 17 million inhabitants, about 2000 major industrial facilities, and more than 6 million vehicles based on diesel, gasoline, and ethanol. The area is thus a representative example of large urban region. The accumulated data collected by a network of air quality measuring stations, distributed throughout the SPMA, enables the monitoring of the air quality and is an adequate source of information for checking the effect of air quality control measures in the region. The present work shows that, although the levels of primary air pollutants have decreased over the last 20 years, events with high levels of NO₂, CO, particulate material and ozone still take place. In the last five years, ozone has become the most problematic pollutant, in view of the high frequency of peak events. Increased control of emission sources and adequate planning of the urban area, especially concerning the traffic system, are both necessary in order to keep pollution in the area under established levels.     

Comparison of regional and global land cover products and the implications for biogenic emission modeling

Accurate estimates of biogenic emissions are required for air quality models that support the development of air quality management plans and attainment demonstrations. Land cover characterization is an essential driving input for most biogenic emissions models. This work contrasted the global Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover product against a regional land cover product developed for the Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) over four climate regions in eastern Texas, where biogenic emissions comprise a large fraction of the total inventory of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and land cover is highly diverse. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) was utilized to investigate the influences of land cover characterization on modeled isoprene and monoterpene emissions through changes in the standard emission potential and emission activity factor, both separately and simultaneously. In Central Texas, forest coverage was significantly lower in the MODIS land cover product relative to the TCEQ data, which resulted in substantially lower estimates of isoprene and monoterpene emissions by as much as 90%. Differences in predicted isoprene and monoterpene emissions associated with variability in land cover characterization were primarily caused by differences in the standard emission potential, which is dependent on plant functional type. Photochemical modeling was conducted to investigate the effects of differences in estimated biogenic emissions associated with land cover characterization on predicted ozone concentrations using the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). Mean differences in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) ozone concentrations were 2 to 6 ppb with maximum differences exceeding 20 ppb. Continued focus should be on reducing uncertainties in the representation of land cover through field validation.

Implications: Uncertainties in the estimation of biogenic emissions associated with the characterization of land cover in global and regional data products were examined in eastern Texas. Misclassification between trees and low-growing vegetation in central Texas resulted in substantial differences in isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates and predicted ground-level ozone concentrations. Results from this study indicate the importance of land cover validation at regional scales.     

Impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on the simulated response of ozone and fine particulate matter to anthropogenic emission reductions

The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1-0.25 microg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1-2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 microg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions.     

Evaluation of air quality models for the simulation of a high ozone episode in the Houston metropolitan area

A high ozone event in the Houston–Galveston–Brazoria area was utilized to study the shortcomings of the current air quality models. To improve the baseline simulations with the Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) for developing the state implementation plan, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) imputed emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs) by scaling the amount of fugitive emissions of olefins to co-emitted NO_x from selected point sources, effectively multiplying by 3–12 times over the regular inventory values. In this paper, CAMx and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model were used to determine if the imputed HRVOC emissions were consistent with the observed atmospheric conditions. With the base emissions, CMAQ and CAMx both with the Carbon-Bond 4 (CB-4) mechanism simulated similar ozone concentrations. But with the imputed HRVOC emissions, CMAQ predicted lower ozone peaks than CAMx in the vicinity and downwind of the Ship Channel and other highly HRVOC-rich areas. Based on analyses of sensitivity simulations of CMAQ with different emission inputs and vertical diffusion algorithms in the model, we found that the modeled atmosphere lacked reactivity to produce the observed high ozone event. Although the imputed HRVOC emissions improved ozone prediction at the surface sites, but the ethylene concentrations were not consistent with the measurements at the super sites (La Porte and Clinton) and by NOAA aircraft. Several sensitivity tests designed to provide additional radicals into the system and other research results suggested that the lack of reactivity may need to be corrected by targeted, and probably of episodic, increase of HRVOC emissions, from the sources in the Houston Ship Channel. Additional investigation of the ozone production efficiency for different chemical mechanisms is necessary to pinpoint the emissions uncertainty issues.     

Air quality impacts of distributed energy resources implemented in the northeastern United States

Emissions from the potential installation of distributed energy resources (DER) in the place of current utility-scale power generators have been introduced into an emissions inventory of the northeastern United States. A methodology for predicting future market penetration of DER that considers economics and emission factors was used to estimate the most likely implementation of DER. The methodology results in spatially and temporally resolved emission profiles of criteria pollutants that are subsequently introduced into a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model of the region. The DER technology determined by the methodology includes 62% reciprocating engines, 34% gas turbines, and 4% fuel cells and other emerging technologies. The introduction of DER leads to retirement of 2625 MW of existing power plants for which emissions are removed from the inventory. The air quality model predicts maximum differences in air pollutant concentrations that are located downwind from the central power plants that were removed from the domain. Maximum decreases in hourly peak ozone concentrations due to DER use are 10 ppb and are located over the state of New Jersey. Maximum decreases in 24-hr average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations reach 3 microg/m3 and are located off the coast of New Jersey and New York. The main contribution to decreased PM2.5 is the reduction of sulfate levels due to significant reductions in direct emissions of sulfur oxides (SO(x)) from the DER compared with the central power plants removed. The scenario presented here represents an accelerated DER penetration case with aggressive emission reductions due to removal of highly emitting power plants. Such scenario provides an upper bound for air quality benefits of DER implementation scenarios.     

An assessment of the impact of California's Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline on ozone air quality

California's Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG), introduced early in 1996, represents an important step toward attainment of ozone standards. Studies of vehicle emissions and ambient air quality data have reported substantial reductions of ozone precursors due to CaRFG. This study uses daily measurements of regional ozone and meteorology to estimate the effect of CaRFG on ozone concentrations in three areas of California. In each area, a regression model was used to partially account for the daily effects of meteorology on area-wide ozone maxima for May-October. The statistical models are based on combinations of air temperature aloft (approximately 5000 ft), surface air temperatures, and surface wind speeds. Estimated ozone benefits were attributed to CaRFG after accounting for meteorology, which improved the precision of the estimates by approximately 37-57% based on a resampling analysis. The ozone benefits were calculated as the difference in ozone times the proportion of the reductions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides attributed to CaRFG by the best available emission inventories. Ozone benefits attributed to CaRFG (with approximately 90% confidence) are 8-13% in the Los Angeles area, -2-6% in the San Francisco Bay area overall with greater benefits in two major subregions, and 3-15% in the Sacramento area.     

Evaluation of an urban NMHC emission inventory by measurements and impact on CTM results

This paper presents an evaluation of the consistency of an urban state-of-the-art hydrocarbon (HC) emission inventory. The evaluation was conducted through the comparison of this inventory with hourly HC measurements during two summer months in the centre of Marseille, on the Mediterranean French coast. Factors of under or overestimation could be calculated for each compound on the basis of a systematic HC to HC ratio analysis. These results, associated with a deep analysis of the speciation profiles, show that most of the common and highly concentrated hydrocarbons (such as butanes) are too much predominant in the emission speciation, while the heavy and less common species (branched alkanes, substituted aromatics) are under-represented in the inventory. The urban diffuse sources appear here as one critical point of the inventories. The disagreements were shown to have a strong incidence on the representation of the air mass reactivity. In a last step, the identified uncertainties in emissions were implemented in an air-quality model for sensitivity studies. It was shown that the observed biases in the inventory could affect the regional ozone production, with a probable impact on ozone peaks of 2–10 ppbv over the area.     

Evaluation of non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions based on an ambient air measurement in Tokyo area,Japan

Non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) are known to have an important role on air quality due to their high reactivity. NMHC analysis has been performed on 148 ambient air samples collected at five different sites in the Kanto area (Tokyo metropolitan area and surrounding six prefectures) of Japan in summer and winter of 2008, and fifty NMHCs have been determined and quantified. A field measurement campaign has been conducted at one of the busiest intersections in Tokyo metropolitan area in winter of 2008. NMHC emissions are evaluated through comparison of distributions of individual NMHCs emitted from motor vehicles, which are estimated from the measurements, with those determined from the current emissions inventory. The comparison revealed that the measured distributions of acetylene, ethylene and toluene showed a good agreement with those estimated from the emissions inventory (the values estimated from the measurements are a factor of 1.5, 0.56 and 2.3 larger than the emissions inventory in median, respectively), however, propane and isobutane are found to be significantly underestimated in the emissions inventory (the measured values were a factor of 18 and 5.1 larger than the emissions inventory, respectively). The significant underestimate of propane can be explained by that the current emissions inventory does not consider emissions from liquefied propane gas (LPG) fueled vehicles. However, for isobutane, reasons for the underestimate are still unclear. Another field measurement has been conducted in summer of 2008, where the air samples have been collected at three different sites on the ground and by a helicopter as well. Remarkable high concentrations of 1-butene and cis- and trans-2-butenes have been sporadically observed in the samples collected at Urayasu in the coastal area of Tokyo bay. Calculated propylene equivalent (PE) concentrations of butenes revealed that those have a significantly important role in ozone formation when the air plume is affected by emissions from their emission sources. The PE concentrations of butenes varied from 0.1 to 39 ppbC, and accounted for 1.5–75% of total PE concentrations at Urayasu. Most of the continuous air quality monitoring stations does not record concentrations of individual hydrocarbons, therefore, the importance of reactive and low concentration hydrocarbon such as butenes might be overlooked in the current emissions inventory and/or air quality model. In this paper, the reliability of NMHC emissions is evaluated based on the field measurements. Their possible impacts on air quality in the Kanto area are discussed as well, based on the calculated propylene equivalent concentrations.     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.     

Emissions of persistent organic pollutants and eight candidate POPs from UNECE–Europe in 2000, 2010 and 2020 and the emission reduction resulting from the implementation of the UNECE POP protocol

An emission inventory for persistent organic pollutants (POP) is made for the year 2000 based on submissions of emission data from the Parties to the Convention on LRTAP. The inventory covers the UNECE territory except Canada and the United States. For the countries, sources or compounds lacking in official submissions, default emission estimates have been prepared and applied to complete the inventory. An indicative comparison of the year 2000 emissions with the 1990 emission levels from a previous study is presented as well as emission projections for 2010, 2015, 2020 based on activity scenarios developed in the framework of the EU CAFE programme. The key source analysis of the projected emissions assuming full implementation of the UNECE protocols allows identification of remaining source strengths which subsequently are briefly discussed in terms of their potential for (further) reduction. A number of chemicals are currently being investigated for inclusion on the UN/ECE POPs protocol list of priority compounds but for these substances emission estimation methodologies are scarce or non-existent. For eight of these substances (dicofol, edosulfan, hexachlorobutadiene (HBU), pentabromodiphenyl ether (PBDE), pentachlorobenzene (PCBe), pentachlorophenol (PCP), polychloronated naftalenes (PCN) and short chained chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs)) an emission estimation methodology is proposed and a preliminary emission inventory for the year 2000 is presented.