Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe: a model study

A high-resolution chemical transport model, driven by meteorology representing current and future climate, was used to investigate the effects of possible future changes in climate on nitrogen deposition in northwestern Europe. The model system was able to resolve the climatology of precipitation and chemical properties observed in northern Europe during the 1980s, albeit with some underestimation of the temporal and spatial variability of meteorological parameters and chemical components. The results point toward a substantial increase (30% or more) in nitrogen deposition over western Norway as a consequence of increasing precipitation but more moderate changes for other areas. Deposition of oxidized nitrogen will increase more than the deposition of reduced nitrogen. Over Sweden, oxidized nitrogen will increase only marginally and reduced nitrogen will decrease, although annual precipitation is expected to increase here as well. This is probably because more reduced nitrogen will be removed further west in Scandinavia because of the strong increase in precipitation along the Norwegian coast. The total deposition of oxidized nitrogen over Norway is expected to increase from 96 Gg N y(-1) during the current climate to 107 Gg N y(-1) by 2100 due only to changes in climate. The corresponding values for Sweden are more modest, from 137 Gg N y(-1) to 139 Gg N y(-1).     

Climate change influence on POPs distribution and fate: a case study

Climate change has the potential of affecting the behaviour and distribution of organic pollutants, including POPs. Direct effects of climate change, like temperature increase, modification of wind and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, snow and ice cover, may be very effective in altering the partitioning of POPs among the environmental compartments. Other consequences of future climate scenarios may imply the alteration of degradation rates, soil properties (and hence land use), air-particle partitioning of chemicals and so forth. A case study is here presented to illustrate the major implications of climate change on the long term at the local scale. A dynamic multimedia model was applied to selected PCB and PCDD/F congeners to simulate the effects of climate change on their distribution and fluxes over the next 50 y in the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Different climate change scenarios were tested, finding noticeable variations in POPs concentration even for minor environmental changes. PCBs and PCDFs environmental concentrations may differ by a factor two in a moderate climate change scenario, compared to a situation with stable climate over the next 50 y. However, model results also suggest that if global warming may have the potential of reducing the environmental levels of these chemicals, it would probably enhance their mobility and hence their potential for long range atmospheric transport.     

Climate change decision-making: science, policy and economics

The threat of global climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to humanity. Although climate change is potentially important, it is crucial to recognise also that (especially for the developing countries) there are a number of other priorities that affect human welfare more immediately - such as hunger and malnutrition, poverty, health, and pressing local environmental issues. In this context, predictions about climate change, its impacts, and the costs of mitigation are important for the policy-making dimension, because climate change issues reside within broader questions about sustainable development. One major objective of human development is sustainability, and the pursuit of greater precision in climate prediction can help with progress toward this goal.     

Challenges of linking scientific knowledge to river basin management policy: AquaTerra as a case study

The EU Project AquaTerra generates knowledge about the river-soil-sediment-groundwater system and delivers scientific information of value for river basin management. In this article, the use and ignorance of scientific knowledge in decision making is explored by a theoretical review. We elaborate on the 'two-communities theory', which explains the problems of the policy-science interface by relating and comparing the different cultures, contexts, and languages of researchers and policy makers. Within AquaTerra, the EUPOL subproject examines the policy-science interface with the aim of achieving a good connection between the scientific output of the project and EU policies. We have found two major barriers, namely language and resources, as well as two types of relevant relationships: those between different research communities and those between researchers and policy makers.     

Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh

This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001–2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.     

Links between food trade,climate change and food security in developed countries: A case study of Sweden

Food security is a global concern affecting even highly developed countries. Ongoing globalisation of food systems, characterised by trading interdependencies, means that agricultural production can be disrupted by climate change, affecting food availability. This study investigated Sweden’s food security by identifying major food import categories and associated trade partners (using the World Integrated Trade System database) and vulnerability to frictions in trade deriving from climate change. Vulnerability was assessed through three indicators: exposure based on diversity of sources, dominance and direct trade from supplying countries; sensitivity, assessed using the Climate Risk Index, and adaptive capacity, assessed using the Fragile State Index. The results revealed that Sweden’s grain imports may be most vulnerable, and animal products least vulnerable, to climate change. Management strategies based on this preliminary assessment can be developed by integrating climate vulnerability deriving from food trading into the ‘Gravity’ model, to improve prediction of trade flows.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01623-w.     

Climate change and the adaptability of agriculture: a review

The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate. It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.     

Differences of methods to quantify construction and demolition waste for less-developed but fast-growing countries: China as a case study

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - As China and other developing countries continue to urbanize over the next decades, construction and demolition waste (CDW) management has been...     

Assessing the benefits of the greenhouse gas emission reduction policy: a pilot case study of Korea

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to avert or slow climate change has become an increasingly important policy issue in developing countries such as Korea, as well as in developed countries. This paper uses the willingness to pay survey technique to assess the benefits that would ensue from a proposed OHO emissions reduction policy. It aims to provide at least a preliminary evaluation of the policy, using Korea as a specific case study. Respondents overall accepted the contingent market and were on average willing to contribute a significant amount toward the GHG emissions reduction policy. This willingness varies according to respondents' individual characteristics and environmental concerns. Finally, this study discusses the importance of including the climate change problem in cost—benefit analysis and presents the policy implications of the results.     

Climate change and sustainable development: realizing the opportunity

Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions.     

Probabilistic policy experiments: the use of energy economic environmental models in the climate change policy process

This paper uses the Edmonds-Reilly model to explore an alternative approach for using energy-economic-environmental models when analyzing future CO₂ emissions. This approach – conducting probabilistic policy experiments – can be used to investigate the effectiveness of various policy options in the context of uncertainty. The analysis builds on work by Nordhaus and Yohe (1983) and Edmonds et al. (1986). A key feature of using a probabilistic approach is that it offers both analysts and policy-makers an opportunity to move away from arguing about which scenario is the 'right', best-guess scenario, and towards a discussion of which strategies are effective across a wide range of possible futures. This paper both develops a methodology for conducting probabilistic policy experiments and presents the results of five preliminary experiments using this approach.     

Characteristics and management modes of domestic waste in rural areas of developing countries: a case study of China

A huge accumulation of domestic waste has caused serious environmental contamination in rural areas of developing countries (RADIC). The characteristics and management of domestic waste are carefully discussed, based on field surveys and a literature review. The results indicate that the generation in most of RADIC is less than the median of 0.521 kg day⁻¹ per capita in China, and much smaller than in rural areas of developed countries (RADEC). Organic waste and inert waste with an accumulative mass percentage of 72.31% are dominant components of domestic waste in the rural areas of China. There are trends of increasing amounts of kitchen waste, paper/cardboard, and plastic/rubber and a decreasing trend of ash waste. The RADIC composition of domestic waste had a high content of organic waste and a low content of recyclable waste compared to the RADEC. Domestic waste has good compressibility and a light bulk density ranging from 40 to 650 kg m⁻³. The moisture, ash, combustible, and calorific values of domestic waste were 53.31%, 18.03%, 28.67%, and 5368 kJ kg⁻¹, respectively. The domestic waste has an abundance of nutrients including organic matter (39.05%), nitrogen (1.02%), phosphorus (0.50%), and potassium (1.42%). In RADIC, domestic waste can be used as an agricultural manure only after it has been collected and sorted for the potential risk of heavy metal accumulation. Based on these characteristics of domestic waste and the different situations of rural areas, four waste management modes including centralized treatment, decentralized treatment, group treatment, and mobile treatment are designed and discussed.

     

Implications of climate change for the stomatal flux of ozone: a case study for winter wheat

Climate change factors such as elevated CO2 concentrations, warming and changes in precipitation affect the stomatal flux of ozone (O3) into leaves directly or indirectly by altering the stomatal conductance, atmospheric O3 concentrations, frequency and extent of pollution episodes and length of the growing season. Results of a case study for winter wheat indicate that in a future climate the exceedance of the flux-based critical level of O3 might be reduced across Europe, even when taking into account an increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. In contrast, the exceedance of the concentration-based critical level of O3 will increase with the projected increase in tropospheric background O3 concentration. The influence of climate change should be considered when predicting the future effects of O3 on vegetation. There is a clear need for multi-factorial, open-air experiments to provide more realistic information for O3 flux-effect modelling in a future climate.     

Linking national agrarian policy to deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon: a case study of Tambopata, 1986-1997

Amazonian deforestation rates vary regionally, and ebb and flow according to macroeconomic policy and local social factors. We used remote sensing and field interviews to investigate deforestation patterns and drivers at a Peruvian frontier during 1986-1991, when rural credit and guaranteed markets were available; and 1991-1997, when structural adjustment measures were imposed. The highest rate of clearing (1.5% gross) was observed along roads during 1986-1991. Roadside deforestation slowed in 1991-1997 (0.7% gross) and extensive regrowth yielded a net increase in forest cover (0.5%). Deforestation along rivers was relatively constant. Riverside farms today retain more land in both crops and forest than do roadside farms where pasture and successional growth predominate. Long-term residents maintain more forest on their farms than do recent colonists, but proximity to urban markets is the strongest predictor of forest cover. Future credit programs must reflect spatial patterns of development and ecological vulnerability, and support the recuperation of fallow lands and secondary forest.     

Climate change in the Seychelles: implications for water and coral reefs

The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCM3 model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.     

Modeling integrated urban water systems in developing countries: case study of Port Vila,Vanuatu

Developing countries struggle to provide adequate urban water services, failing to match infrastructure with urban expansion. Despite requiring an improved understanding of alternative infrastructure performance when considering future investments, integrated modeling of urban water systems is infrequent in developing contexts. This paper presents an integrated modeling methodology that can assist strategic planning processes, using Port Vila, Vanuatu, as a case study. 49 future model scenarios designed for the year 2050, developed through extensive stakeholder participation, were modeled with UVQ (Urban Volume and Quality). The results were contrasted with a 2015 model based on current infrastructure, climate, and water demand patterns. Analysis demonstrated that alternative water servicing approaches can reduce Port Vila’s water demand by 35 %, stormwater generation by 38 %, and nutrient release by 80 % in comparison to providing no infrastructural development. This paper demonstrates that traditional centralized infrastructure will not solve the wastewater and stormwater challenges facing rapidly growing urban cities in developing countries.     

Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment

The Keersop catchment (43km(2)) in the south of The Netherlands has been contaminated by the emissions of four zinc ore smelters. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of future projected climate change on the hydrology and the leaching of heavy metals (i.e. Cd and Zn) in the catchment. The numerical, quasi-2D, unsaturated zone Soil Water Atmosphere Plant model was used with 100-year simulated daily time series of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The time series are representative of stationary climates for the periods 1961-1990 ("baseline") and 2071-2100 ("future"). The time series of future climate were obtained by downscaling the results of eight regional climate model (RCM) experiments, driven by the SRES A2 emissions scenario, using change factors for a series of climate statistics and applying them to stochastic weather generator models. The time series are characterized by increased precipitation in winter, less precipitation in summer, and higher air temperatures (between 2°C and 5°C) throughout the year. Future climate scenarios project higher evapotranspiration rates, more irrigation, less drainage, lower discharge rates and lower groundwater levels, due to increased evapotranspiration and a slowing down of the groundwater system. As a result, lower concentrations of Cd and Zn in surface water are projected. The reduced leaching of heavy metals, due to drying of the catchment, showed a positive impact on a limited aspect of surface water quality.