A Review of Public Domain Water Quality Models for Simulating Dissolved Oxygen in Rivers and Streams

The review discusses six major public domain water quality models currently available for rivers and streams. These major models, which differ greatly in terms of processes they represent, data inputs requirements, assumptions, modeling capability, their strengths and weaknesses, could yield useful results if appropriately selected for the desired purposes. The public domain models, which are most suitable for simulating dissolved oxygen along rivers and streams, chosen in this review are simulation catchment (SIMCAT), temporal overall model for catchments (TOMCAT), QUAL2Kw, QUAL2EU, water quality analysis simulation program (WASP7), and quality simulation along rivers (QUASAR). Each of these models is described based on a consistent set of criteria-conceptualization, processes, input data, model capability, limitations, model strengths, and its application. The results revealed that SIMCAT and TOMCAT are over-simplistic but useful to quickly assess impact of point sources. The QUAL2Kw has provision for conversion of algal death to carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) and thus more appropriate than QUAL2EU, where macrophytes play an important interaction. The extensive requirement of data in WASP7 and QUASAR is difficult to justify the time and costs required to set up these complex models. Thus, a single model could not serve all wide range of functionalities required. The choice of a model depends upon availability of time, financial cost and a specific application. This review may help to choose appropriate model for a particular water quality problem.     

Water Quality Prediction of Water Sources Based on Meteorological Factors using the CA-NARX Approach

With the increasingly serious problem of surface water environmental safety, it is of great significance to study the changing trend of reservoir water quality, and it is necessary to establish a water quality prediction and early warning system for the management and maintenance of water resources. Aiming at the problem of water quality prediction in reservoirs, a CA-NARX algorithm is designed, which combines the improved dynamic clustering algorithm with the idea of machine learning and the forward dynamic regression neural network. The improved dynamic clustering algorithm is used to classify the eutrophication degree of waterbodies according to the total phosphorus and total nitrogen content. Considering four meteorological factors, air temperature, water temperature, water surface evaporation, and rainfall, synthetically for each water quality condition, the total phosphorus and total nitrogen in the waterbody are forecasted by an improved forward NARX dynamic regression neural network. Based on this, the CA-NARX prediction algorithm can realize short period water quality prediction. Compared with the traditional support vector regression machine model, improved GA-BP neural network, and exponential smoothing method, the CA-NARX model has the least prediction error.

     

湘江流域永州段水质和水文气象因素变化规律及其相关分析

为推进湘江流域永州段水资源保护,加强水质预测,利用2014—2018年冷水滩断面水文气象和水质监测数据,基于相关分析、主成分分析等多元统计方法,研究分析了湘江冷水滩断面水质、水文气象因素变化规律以及两者的相关关系、量化关系。结果表明:该地区水文气象因素对水质影响最大,水质与水文气象因素之间的相关关系显著,水文气象因素是影响湘江流域水质的重要因素;溶解氧与水温、降水量呈线性回归关系,高锰酸盐指数与水位呈线性回归关系,高锰酸盐指数拟合回归方程的精度略低于溶解氧拟合回归方程。     

Development of Dissolved Oxygen Model for a Highly Variable Flow River: A Case Study of Ravi River in Pakistan

A framework for dissolved oxygen (DO) modeling of the Ravi River has been developed based on a combination of laboratory measurements and field and monitoring data. Both the classical Streeter-Phelps (CSP) and the modified Streeter-Phelps (MSP) models are used for DO simulations. The MSP model considers the carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) and nitrogenous biochemical oxygen demand (NBOD) separately, whereas the CSP model is evaluated considering only the CBOD and NBOD is incorporated in the overall BOD utilization rate. CBOD, NBOD and BOD rates have been determined through long-term BOD analysis of five main wastewater outfalls and two surface drains discharging into the Ravi River over a 98 km stretch. Analysis by Thomas Method manifests strong coefficient of determination “R²” between 0.72 and 0.98 for all the three types of BOD rates. Sensitivity analyses have also been carried out to find out a suitable reaeration rate formula for highly variable flows in the Ravi River. The CSP model results based on classical approach of considering only CBOD show significant difference between the model predictions and field measurements suggesting that NBOD needs to be incorporated for the model development. The dissolved oxygen values calculated using the MSP model and the CSP model based on overall BOD rate are in close agreement with field measurements and are thus suitable to model DO levels in the Ravi River.     

Calibration and verification of a dissolved oxygen management model for a highly polluted river with extreme flow variations in Pakistan

A dissolved oxygen (DO) model is calibrated and verified for a highly polluted River Ravi with large flow variations. The model calibration is done under medium flow conditions (431.5 m³/s), whereas the model verification is done using the data collected during low flow conditions (52.6 m³/s). Biokinetic rate coefficients for carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) and nitrogenous biochemical oxygen demand (NBOD) (i.e, K _cr and K _n ) are determined through the measured CBOD and ammonia river profiles. The calculated values of K _cr and K _n are 0.36 day^?1 and 0.34 day^?1, respectively. The close agreement between the DO model results and the field values shows that the verified model can be used to develop DO management strategies for the River Ravi. The biokinetic coefficients are known to vary with degree of treatment (DOT) and therefore need to be adjusted for a rational water quality management model. The effect of this variation on level of treatment has been evaluated by using the verified model to attain a DO standard of 4 mg/L in the river using the biokinetic rate coefficients as determined during the model calibration and verification process. The required DOT in this case is found to be 96 %, whereas the DOT is 86 % if adjusted biokinetic rate coefficients are used to reflect the effect of wastewater treatment. The cost of wastewater treatment is known to increase exponentially as the removal efficiency increases; therefore, the use of appropriate biokinetic coefficients to manage the water quality in rivers is important.     

PSO和SVM混合算法确定太湖入湖河流水质主要影响因子

以影响太湖入湖河流水质的24个因子值为研究对象,将PSO算法与SVM算法相结合。PSO算法用于优化SVM算法的参数c和g,以利于快速、高效地确定c和g的全局最优值;SVM算法基于最优的c和g,分别以24,21,18,15,12,9和6个因子作为特征向量预测水质的污染程度。结果表明,当特征向量为9个影响因子时预测率最高。其参数c=18.56,g=1.35,对应的预测率为：全局预测率92.59%,重度污染水质预测率88.89%,轻度污染水质预测率94.45%。因此,通过PSO和SVM混合算法,可以确定影响太湖入湖河流水质的主要因子,利用这些主要因子对水质进行预测预警,不但可以节省时间,而且可以得到精确的结果。     

Some comments on analysis techniques for censored water quality data

When investigating trace substances in ambient water, a proportion of water sample concentrations is usually below limits of detection. In medical and industrial reliability studies, comparisons are often made of time to event data which includes right censored observations indicating only that an observation is greater than a specified value. In this paper consideration is given to the application of non-parametric procedures, widely used in the analysis of time to event data, to water quality data which is left censored.A non-parametric estimate of the cumulative distribution function for left censored water quality data can be generated quite easily. For the comparison of levels of trace substances it is necessary to combine an unconditional likelihood for the proportion of observations below a detection limit with a partial likelihood for the portion of the distribution above the detection limit in order to make use of regression methodology. The details of this are outlined and an example is given which compares levels of toxic substances at the head and mouth of the Niagara river.When comparisons are based on matched pair data, further modifications are necessary. A development paralleling that for time to event data is given. Consideration is also given to model extensions which allow for a dependence between observations at the same location over a period of time.The presentation is introductory and designed to illustrate the potential of some available methodology for use in the analysis of water quality data.     

Application of MODIS satellite data in monitoring water quality parameters of Chaohu Lake in China

This study aims to apply Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Data) to monitor water quality parameters including chlorophyll-a, secchi disk depth, total phosphorus and total nitrogen at Chaohu Lake. In this paper, multivariate regression analysis, Back Propagation neural networks (BPs), Radial Basis Function neural networks (RBFs) and Genetic Algorithms-Back Propagation (GA-BP) were applied to investigate the relationships between water quality parameters and the MODIS bands combinations. The study results indicated that a simple, efficient and acceptable model could be established through multivariate regression analysis, but the model precision was relatively low. In comparison, BPs, RBFs and GA-BP were significantly advantageous in terms of sufficient utilization of spectra information and model reliance. The relative errors of BPs, RBFs and GA-BP were below 35%. Based on method comparison, it can be concluded that GA-BP is more suitable for simulation and prediction of water quality parameters by applying genetic algorithm to optimize the weight value of BP network. This study demonstrates that MODIS data can be applied for monitoring some of the water quality parameters of large inland lakes.     

Trophic state index of a lake system using IRS (P6-LISS III) satellite imagery

Water pollution has now become a major threat to the existence of living beings and water quality monitoring is an effective step towards the restoration of water quality. Lakes are versatile ecosystems and their eutrophication is a serious problem. Carlson Trophic State Index (CTSI) provides an insight into the trophic condition of a lake. CTSI has been modified for the study area and is used in this study. Satellite imagery analysis now plays a prominent role in the quick assessment of water quality in a vast area. This study is an attempt to assess the trophic state index based on secchi disk depth and chlorophyll a of a lake system (Akkulam?CVeli lake, Kerala, India) using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) P6 LISS III imagery. Field data were collected on the date of the overpass of the satellite. Multiple regression equation is found to yield superior results than the simple regression equations using spectral ratios and radiance from the individual bands, for the prediction of trophic state index from satellite imagery. The trophic state index based on secchi disk depth, derived from the satellite imagery, provides an accurate prediction of the trophic status of the lake. IRS P6-LISS III imagery can be effectively used for the assessment of the trophic condition of a lake system.     

Design and assembly of an experimental laboratory for the study of atmosphere–plant interactions in the system of fumigation chambers

A 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD(5)) test has been used as the standard measurement of organic pollution in rivers worldwide. However, it may be argued that BOD is not a sufficient indicator of organic pollution when nitrogenous biochemical oxygen demand (NBOD) is present in water samples. In this study, BOD, NBOD, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD) of treated sewage effluent (TSE) were measured near at the discharge outlet of 3 sewage treatment plants (STPs) in Sakai, Itachi, and Kashio rivers in Central Japan. Additional measurements were conducted at one point upstream and two points downstream from the STP discharge points in the rivers. It was estimated that NBOD values in the TSE of Sakai River, Kashio River and Itachi River accounted for 54%, 69% and 18% of their BOD values, respectively. Respective NH4+ and NO2- concentrations were positively correlated with those of NBOD values in Sakai, Itachi, and Kashio rivers. The BOD loads from the TSE were estimated to be 2.2, 5.7, and 1.2 times higher than the CBOD loads in the Sakai, Itachi, and Kashio rivers, respectively. The variation of the portion of NBOD values of each TSE, as well as the ratios of CBOD to BOD loads, was attributed to the difference in each STP system. Consequently, the NH4+ and NO2- of TSE led to the increase of NBOD in the Sakai River basin.     

Forest cover change and fragmentation using Landsat data in Maçka State Forest Enterprise in Turkey

In this study, Grey model (GM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to predict suspended solids (SSeff) and chemical oxygen demand (CODeff) in the effluent from a wastewater treatment plant in industrial park of Taiwan. When constructing model or predicting, the influent quality or online monitoring parameters were adopted as the input variables. ANN was also adopted for comparison. The results indicated that the minimum MAPEs of 16.13 and 9.85% for SSeff and CODeff could be achieved using GMs when online monitoring parameters were taken as the input variables. Although a good fitness could be achieved using ANN, they required a large quantity of data. Contrarily, GM only required a small amount of data (at least four data) and the prediction results were even better than those of ANN. Therefore, GM could be applied successfully in predicting effluent when the information was not sufficient. The results also indicated that these simple online monitoring parameters could be applied on prediction of effluent quality well.     

Response of lake water quality to wastewater inputs from land-based fish farm located on Yuvarlakçay Creek in Köyceğiz–Dalyan Specially Protected Area, Turkey

Köyce?iz Lake is located in the south-western part of Turkey. The area between the Köyce?iz Lake and the Mediterranean Sea is covered with four small lakes and several canals. The surroundings of the lake, canals and forests have a great potential as a reproduction areas for Mediterranean Sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and sheltering place for various animals. In the vicinity of this system there are agricultural areas and small settlements. In this region the most important economic activities are tourism and fisheries. However, the lake is currently threatened by pollution because of (1) non-point source pollution (agriculture); (2) point sources (land-based fish farms); (3) inefficient sewerage systems; (4) uncontrolled soil erosion in its drainage basin; (5) inappropriate flood control measures; and (6) channel traffic. This study evaluates the influence of its influent creeks namely Namnam and Yuvarlakçay Creek on the water quality of Köyce?iz Lake, mainly because the creeks are believed to be responsible for the major pollutant load reaching the lake. Accordingly, this study demonstrates (1) change in the water quality of Köyce?iz Lake from 2006 to 2007; (2) the water quality classification of the major influent creeks feeding Köyce?iz Lake; and (3) how land-based fish farm influences Yuvarlakçay Creek water quality in a Köyce?iz–Dalyan Specially Protected Area.     

A real-time monitoring system for Kerava river quality

The hygienic quality of the water of the Kerava river, southern Finland, deteriorates occasionally. The purpose of the study was to design a real-time monitoring system that would inform the public using the river for recreational purposes about the changes in water quality. The system was constrained to consist of on-line sensing of water quality and quantity, and adjacent forecasting models. Four different system alternatives were analyzed and compared. The first alternative observes river flow in real-time; the second alternative also monitors water temperature, turbidity, pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen. The data collected in this way are used to forecast Streptococcus and E. coli concentrations, using canonical correlation and regression analysis. The third configuration is a two-step procedure, where river flow is first predicted by an ARMAX model and the hygienic state is then based on the flow estimate, as in the first assemblage. The most expensive monitoring system, which at present is the least well-known, is to apply the Lidar system, where the hygienic status of the river quality is observed directly using laser technology, placing less emphasis on modeling. In this paper, the alternatives are formulated and a preliminary comparison is made, using the criteria of operational feasibility, prediction uncertainty, investment and maintenance costs, and suitability for in-situ monitoring.     

Dynamic Modeling of the Ratio Volatile Fatty Acids/Bicarbonate Alkalinity in a UASB Reactor for Potato Processing Wastewater Treatment

In this work, dynamic mathematical model for the prediction of the operational parameter volatile fatty acids/bicarbonate alkalinity (VFA/ALK) in a UASB reactor was developed. The dynamic modeling technique was applied successfully to a two-year data record from an industrial wastewater treatment plant of a potato processing industry. The technique used included regression analysis by residuals. Seventeen parameters were examined including the following: wastewater's flow rate, reactor's temperature and pH, total and soluble influent COD, wastewater's temperature and pH, total and soluble effluent COD, volatile fatty acids, alkalinity, biogas production rate and each parameter with a time lag of up to 10 days. Finally, after all parameters and all time lag trials the best fitted model was developed. The model's adequacy was checked by χ² test for a data record of the same UASB reactor but at a different time period and proved to be satisfactory. Additionally, the model's ability to predict and to control the plant's operation via VFA/ALK was examined. Through this model, in contrary to steady state models, various aspects of the process can be enlighten, such as the fact that the hydrolysis of starch requires at least a resident time of seven days.     

Mapping chlorophyll-a through in-situ measurements and Terra ASTER satellite data

This paper presents an application of water quality mapping through real-time satellite and ground data. The Lake Beysehir which is the largest freshwater lake and drinking water reservoir in Turkey was selected as the study area. Terra ASTER satellite image is used as remote sensing data source for water quality mapping in addition to simultaneously performed in-situ measurements. Ground data is collected simultaneously with the ASTER overpass on June 09, 2005 over the Lake Beysehir. The spatial distribution map is developed by using multiple regression (MR) technique for water quality parameter, which is chlorophyll-a (chl-a). The results indicate that simultaneous ground and satellite remote sensing data are highly correlated (R (2) > 0.86). In the image processing step, geometric correction, image filtering and development of water quality map procedures are performed with the ERDAS Imagine and ArcGIS 9.0 software. The trophic status of Lake Beysehir is considered to be oligotrophic with an average 1.55 microg/l chl-a concentration.     

紫外光诱导荧光分析仪结合多元线性回归算法在城市河流常规污染指标监测中的应用

为建立一种针对城市河流水体常规污染指标的快速原位监测方法,首次运用紫外光诱导荧光分析仪对扬州市60条城市河流进行水体三维荧光光谱(EEM)测量,形成了具有多样性的水质样本集合.利用峰值拾取法、相关性分析和主成分分析3种方式从三维荧光光谱中提取溶解性有机物(DOM)污染信息,结合多元线性回归算法(MLR),建立与化学需氧...     

Intervention analysis in environmental engineering

Intervention analysis techniques are described for identifying and statistically modelling trends which may be present in water quality time series. At the exploratory data analysis stage, simple graphical and modelling methods can be employed for visually detecting and examining trends in a time series caused by one or more external interventions. For instance, a plot of a robust locally weighted regression smooth through a graph of the observations over time may reveal trends and other interesting statistical properties contained in the time series. In addition, statistical tests, such as different versions of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, can be used to detect the presence of trends caused by unknown or known external interventions. To characterize rigorously and estimate trends which may be known in advance or else detected using exploratory data analysis studies, different parametric methods can be utilized at the confirmatory data analysis stage. Specifically, the time series modelling approach to intervention analysis can be employed to estimate the magnitudes of the changes in the mean level of the series due to the interventions. Particular types of regression models can also be used for estimating trends, especially when there are many missing observations. To demonstrate how intervention analysis methods can be effectively used in environmental impact assessment, representative applications to water quality time series are presented.Invited Paper for Presentation at The Workshop on Statistical Methods for the Assessment of Point Source Pollution, The Canada Centre for Inland Waters, Burlington, Ontario, Canada, L7R 4A6, September 12–14, 1988.     

Hydrometeorological variables predict fecal indicator bacteria densities in freshwater: data-driven methods for variable selection

Statistical models of microbial water quality inform risk management for water recreation. Current research focuses on resource-intensive, location-specific data collection and water quality modeling, but this approach may be cost-prohibitive for risk managers responsible for numerous recreation sites. As an alternative, we tested the ability of two data-driven models, tree regression and random forests with conditional inference trees, to select readily available hydrometeorological variables for use in linear mixed effects (LME) models predicting bacterial density. The study included the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) and Lake Michigan beaches and harbors in Chicago, Illinois, at which Escherichia coli and enterococci were measured seasonally in 2007–2009. Tree regression node variables reduced data dimensionality by >50 %. Variable importance ranks from random forests were used in a forward-step selection based on R ² and root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE). We found two to three variables explained bacteria densities well relative to random forests with all variables. LME models with tree- or forest-selected variables performed reasonably well (0.335?<?R ²?<?0.658). LME models for Lake Michigan had good prediction accuracy with respect to the single sample maximum standard (72–77 %), but limited sensitivity (23–62 %). Results suggest that our alternative approach is feasible and performs similarly to more resource-intensive approaches.     

Advantages of Geographically Weighted Regression for Modeling Benthic Substrate in Two Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Streams

Stream habitat assessments are commonplace in fish management, and often involve nonspatial analysis methods for quantifying or predicting habitat, such as ordinary least squares regression (OLS). Spatial relationships, however, often exist among stream habitat variables. For example, water depth, water velocity, and benthic substrate sizes within streams are often spatially correlated and may exhibit spatial nonstationarity or inconsistency in geographic space. Thus, analysis methods should address spatial relationships within habitat datasets. In this study, OLS and a recently developed method, geographically weighted regression (GWR), were used to model benthic substrate from water depth and water velocity data at two stream sites within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. For data collection, each site was represented by a grid of 0.1 m² cells, where actual values of water depth, water velocity, and benthic substrate class were measured for each cell. Accuracies of regressed substrate class data by OLS and GWR methods were calculated by comparing maps, parameter estimates, and determination coefficient r ². For analysis of data from both sites, Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for sample size indicated the best approximating model for the data resulted from GWR and not from OLS. Adjusted r ² values also supported GWR as a better approach than OLS for prediction of substrate. This study supports GWR (a spatial analysis approach) over nonspatial OLS methods for prediction of habitat for stream habitat assessments.     

太湖蓝藻水华暴发程度年度预测

近年来,尽管太湖主要水质指标有所改善,但蓝藻水华暴发的频次和面积并未明显减少。为了探讨太湖蓝藻水华暴发的环境驱动因子,统计了2012—2020年历年4—10月预警期间的太湖蓝藻水华发生规模与频次,结合同步浮标自动监测数据和实验室分析数据,构建了蓝藻水华预测模型。以太湖蓝藻水华综合指数(I_c)表征蓝藻水华强度,并通过I_c与环境因子的相关性分析,筛选出1月水温、1月电导率、1月生化需氧量和3月总氮浓度4项环境指标,最终构建了以该4项环境指标为自变量、I_c为因变量的太湖年度蓝藻水华强度多元线性回归预测模型。该预测模型的决定系数达到了0.908,平均相对误差为10.35%,预测精度总体表现较好。