Sensitivity analysis of TOPSIS method in water quality assessment: I. Sensitivity to the parameter weights

Sensitivity analysis is becoming increasingly widespread in many fields of engineering and sciences and has become a necessary step to verify the feasibility and reliability of a model or a method. The sensitivity of the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method in water quality assessment mainly includes sensitivity to the parameter weights and sensitivity to the index input data. In the present study, the sensitivity of TOPSIS to the parameter weights was discussed in detail. The present study assumed the original parameter weights to be equal to each other, and then each weight was changed separately to see how the assessment results would be affected. Fourteen schemes were designed to investigate the sensitivity to the variation of each weight. The variation ranges that keep the assessment results unchangeable were also derived theoretically. The results show that the final assessment results will change when the weights increase or decrease by ±20 to ±50 %. The feedback of different samples to the variation of a given weight is different, and the feedback of a given sample to the variation of different weights is also different. The final assessment results can keep relatively stable when a given weight is disturbed as long as the initial variation ratios meet one of the eight derived requirements.     

Sensitivity analysis of TOPSIS method in water quality assessment II: sensitivity to the index input data

This is the second part of the study on sensitivity analysis of the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method in water quality assessment. In the present study, the sensitivity of the TOPSIS method to the index input data was investigated. The sensitivity was first theoretically analyzed under two major assumptions. One assumption was that one index or more of the samples were perturbed with the same ratio while other indices kept unchanged. The other one was that all indices of a given sample were changed simultaneously with the same ratio, while the indices of other samples were unchanged. Furthermore, a case study under assumption 2 was also carried out in this paper. When the same indices of different water samples are changed simultaneously with the same variation ratio, the final water quality assessment results will not be influenced at all. When the input data of all indices of a given sample are perturbed with the same variation ratio, the assessment values of all samples will be influenced theoretically. However, the case study shows that only the perturbed sample is sensitive to the variation, and a simple linear equation representing the relation between the closeness coefficient (CC) values of the perturbed sample and variation ratios can be derived under the assumption 2. This linear equation can be used for determining the sample orders under various variation ratios.     

The duckweed Wolffia globosa as an indicator of heavy metal pollution: Sensitivity to Cr and Cd

The potential of Wolffia globosa, a profusely occurring rootless duckweed, was evaluated as an indicator of metal pollution in the water bodies. Plants of W. globosa were cultured in 3% Hoagland's nutrient medium which was supplemented with 0.05, 0.1, 1.0 and 2.0 mg/L of Cr and Cd. Plants showed substantial accumulation of both the metals at lowest concentrations. For example, at 0.05 ppm, the concentration factor (Cf) value for Cr was significantly higher (5616) than for Cd (1018). A high level of tolerance was shown by the plants to both Cr and Cd. The results show that the plants are sensitive to the variations in metal concentration and are capable of high metal enrichment at very low ambient concentration of the metals. This information may be useful for detecting metals in the water.NBRI Research Publication No. 401 (N.S.)     

提高火焰原子吸收灵敏度的途径

评述了提高火焰原子吸收灵敏度的各种途径 ,诸如包括MIBK -萃取 ,离子交换和沉淀在内的富集分离法 ,在线流动注射法 ,原子捕集法以及间接测定法等技术。     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Estimation of the Thermal Sensitivity of a Dwelling to Variations in Architectural and Behavioural Parameters

The provision of energy for households is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the domestic sector. There is significant scope for energy savings and thus emission reduction in this sector. This paper constructs a bridge between thermal analysis and environmental assessment in the occupancy stage of the dwelling life cycle, approaching both methods as being on a common system Environment–Dwelling–Inhabitant. The importance of the local level in the thermal analysis and assessment of either a dwelling or an inhabitant's behaviour is demonstrated. It is shown that the researcher can choose between natural experiment, computer experiment and mathematical modelling to analyze the system. Such a choice is discussed for two particular methods of thermal analysis. Thermal Nomograms are the result of mathematical modelling, and the Energy Score Sheet is the result of a computer experiment in energy rating. Despite being developed for the purpose of thermal analysis, these methods can also be utilized for environmental assessment at the local level. The discussion centres on Australian conditions where the majority of the population resides in a relatively benign climate wherein behavioural alterations have significant potential for energy savings and environmental impact. The purpose of the paper is to emphasise benefits apart from energy minimisation to promote the use of energy efficient housing strategies.     

Sensitivity of a Land Change Model to Pixel Resolution and Precision of the Independent Variable

It is important to know how the results from a land change model vary based on both the pixel resolution of the maps and the precision of the independent variables because subjective decisions or default values frequently determine these two factors. This paper presents an approach to measure the variation in model accuracy that is triggered by alteration of the pixel resolution and the precision of the independent variable, which are bins of distance to previously built area for our case study. We illustrate the principles with an application of the Geomod land change model contained in the Idrisi GIS, applied to simulate the gain of built land in central Massachusetts, USA. Results reveal four general principles: (1) change in pixel resolution using the majority-takes-all rule can influence quantity error, (2) change in bin width of an independent variable does not influence the quantity error, (3) resolution and bin width interact so that bin width does not have an effect on error when bin widths are smaller than the pixel resolution, and (4) researchers are wise to examine the implications of their subjective decisions by plotting clearly how the resolution and bin size influence the mathematical relationships that the model uses. We have found no universal, hard, and fast rules that dictate how to decide on an appropriate pixel resolution and bin width, but our method demonstrates how these decisions can be influential. These insights can offer scientists guidance in how to prepare data in an appropriate manner.     

Automated Classification of an Environmental Sensitivity Index

Environmental Sensitivity Indices (ESI) composed of many field-data are essential for monitoring and control systems. At the beginning of the last decade an ESI of the German Wadden Sea was developed for use by the relevant authorities. This ESI was derived by experts semi-manually analysing the extensive field data-set. An algorithm is presented here which emulates human expert-decisions on the classification of sensitivity classes. This will permit the necessary regular updates of ESI-determination when new field data become available using automated classifications procedures. After tuning the algorithm parameters it generates decisions identical to those of human experts in about 97% of all locations tested. In addition, the algorithm presented also enables erroneous or extremely seldom field data to be identified.     

大气环境高灵敏光谱探测技术

大气环境高灵敏光谱探测技术是以光与环境相互作用为基础发展起来的学科交叉方向,使用光学的方法和手段来探知研究环境问题。大气环境高灵敏光谱探测技术能够实现从现场瞬态灵敏探测到污染时空分布等不同尺度的遥测,从而获得大气污染"点-线-面"的时空变化规律,由于光谱探测技术具有多组分、非接触、无采样、高灵敏度、大范围快速以及遥测等特点,已经成为国际上大气环境监测技术的主要方向之一。大气环境高灵敏光谱技术在污染源、工业园区、空气质量以及区域污染等监测方面都有很广泛的应用。针对化工园区复杂的环境污染问题,光谱探测技术可以高灵敏、非接触地获取多种污染物浓度特征,掌握化工园区污染时空分布状况,为化工园区的大气污染治理提供有效支撑;针对京津冀、长三角等地区大气重污染过程的核心问题,大气环境高灵敏光谱探测技术通过地基组网观测,车载/机载平台移动观测等三维立体监测手段获取重点区域污染物的生成、转化过程以及重污染过程的形成机制,为区域大气污染成因追溯、污染控制措施评估提供科学的数据和技术支撑。高灵敏光谱探测技术在大气环境领域的成功应用,为污染源、化工园区和重点区域的环境综合诊断和治理奠定了技术基础。     

污染源减排对长三角区域冬季细颗粒物污染的敏感性研究

为了进一步精准有效地降低细颗粒物浓度,针对长三角区域细颗粒物PM2.5浓度,选取8个省级区域的5种污染物为减排目标,设定5个基准排放情景,采用CMAQ-DDM敏感性技术分别进行敏感性分析。结果表明,冬季长三角区域PM2.5污染受区域内的4个省级区域一次PM2.5排放影响最大,区域外的排放影响主要来自河南省和山东省的氨气和一次PM2.5。分别削减本地60%一次PM2.5的排放,安徽省PM2.5平均质量浓度下降了23. 24μg/m^3,江苏省下降了18. 32μg/m^3,上海市下降了15. 17μg/m^3,浙江省下降了9. 07μg/m3。综合各省(市)浓度响应曲线,最大排放因子均为本地一次PM2.5,削减20%左右存在敏感性最大值,削减60%之后浓度曲线趋于平缓,其他因子削减40%以后PM2.5浓度下降逐渐明显,对最后一位排放因子的响应则比较平缓。     

Sensitivity of Simulated Conservation Practice Effectiveness to Representation of Field and In-Stream Processes in the Little River Watershed

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation practices (CPs) is an important step to achieving efficient and successful water quality management. Watershed-scale simulation models can provide useful and convenient tools for this evaluation, but simulated conservation practice effectiveness should be responsive to parameter values used to represent the practices in the modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the impacts of a set of conservation practices on hydrology and water quality of a watershed and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling outputs and simulated conservation practice effectiveness to parameters. The modeling study was conducted in an agricultural watershed, the subwatershed K (16.9 km²) of the Little River Experimental watershed located in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the USA. Sensitivity analysis showed that hydrologic response unit (HRU) and watershed-scale simulations for water quality were most sensitive to CN and FILTERW parameters. Load reduction rates as a function of increased aerial coverage of the conservation practices were greatest for total phosphorus (TP), followed by sediment and total nitrogen (TN). The results indicated that conservation practices would have a limited impact on stream flow volume but could have a significant impact on sediment and TP loads within this region. Watershed-scale TN and TP loads were also sensitive to an in-stream nutrient transformation process represented using the QUAL2E algorithm in SWAT. The study clearly demonstrated the most sensitive model parameters and the optimal conservation practices for this watershed.     

A Screening Test for the Determination of Ethylene Sensitivity

Ethephon, which releases ethylene within plant tissues after application, was chosen to perform assessments of the relative sensitivity of crops to ethylene and to determine which stages of plant development were most sensitive. The species chosen were: barley, wheat, oats, canola and field pea, all of which are important crops in the province of Alberta, Canada. Plants were treated with ethephon at one of 7 different stages. Plants were assessed for their vegetative and reproductive growth, including height, biomass, yield and seed quality. Visual symptoms were photographed and documented to compare them with symptoms caused by ethylene applied as a gas. It was concluded that in barley, wheat and canola the late vegetative and early reproductive stages were most sensitive, at least when sensitivity was defined as reductions in yield and quality. As for field pea, ethephon had no effect on yield but did cause increased numbers of pods, which in certain conditions could lead to increased yields. Significant effects on vegetative growth were only observed in the early vegetative stages of development but with no effects on yield. The screening protocol successfully identified sensitive cultivars and growth stages for further investigation of the effects of ethylene exposure.     

Sensitivity of isolated eggs of pond snails: a new method for toxicity assays and risk assessment

The concentration of heavy metals in the environment is normally low. We here address whether using the development of isolated pond snail Radix auricularia eggs would provide a more sensitive endpoint and whether the gelatinous matrix of the egg mass surrounding the eggs indeed protects the snail embryos. In the present study, artificial removal of the gelatinous matrix of egg masses greatly increased the sensitivity of developing eggs to a heavy metal (cadmium). The sensitivity of isolated eggs to cadmium was determined using several convenient endpoints, including mortality, hatching rate, and heart rate, with an acute toxicity test and a subchronic test. In the acute toxicity test, a 96-h LC₅₀ value of 58.26 μg/L cadmium was determined. In the subchronic toxicity test, sublethal effects in terms of a significant reduction in hatching rate could be found in the 25-μg/L treatment, and a significant decrease of heart rate was observed in both treatments (5 and 25 μg/L). The high sensitivity of isolated eggs indicates that such tests can be efficient for toxicity assays and risk assessment, although one needs to keep in mind that the ecologically relevant measure of toxicity will be how eggs are affected when they are still inside the egg mass.     

Artificial Sampling Units: A Tool for Increasing the Sensitivity of Tests for Impact in Soft Sediments

The distribution of benthic organisms in soft sediments is patchy in time and space on many scales. Such variability makes assessment of ecological impacts difficult. Sediment-related variables, such as grain-size and organic content, which can affect colonization by infauna, vary over similar scales. Variations in characteristics of the sediment may contribute to spatial variability in infaunal assemblages, making it difficult to detect the putative impacts of disturbances, such as the production of boat-generated waves (wash), on these organisms. Here, the hypothesis that infaunal assemblages colonizing containers of homogeneous sedimentwould be less spatially variable than those colonizing natural sediment was tested. Containers were deployed at mudflats differing in exposure to wash. If wash does affect colonization, a reduction in variability among sites of similar exposure should enable stronger differences to be seen between wash and no-wash zones. Assemblages colonizing homogeneous sediment were less variable than those colonizing site-specific sediment. No difference in colonization was, however, seen between places differing in their exposure to wash. Nevertheless, this method is of use in the assessment of ecological impacts in sedimentary environments, where it is difficult to detect putative impacts above the great natural variability in assemblages.     

中山市臭氧污染来源解析与敏感性分析

利用数值天气预报模式和嵌套网格空气质量预报系统的来源解析模块（WRF NAQPMS/OSAM）对中山市2019年9月1次臭氧（O₃）污染过程进行了模拟分析，并对O₃来源进行了解析。结果表明，WRF-NAQPMS/OSAM模型能较好地模拟出该时段的O₃浓度。此次污染过程区域传输对中山市O₃浓度贡献显著，平均贡献比例为82.9%，本地平均贡献比例为17.1%，对中山市O₃贡献最大的2个来源分别是溶剂源和交通源，平均贡献占比分别为43.0%和42.7%。另外，工业源的贡献也不可忽略，平均贡献占比为11.0%。中山市O₃总体上处于挥发性有机物（VOCs）控制区，结合臭氧生成潜势（OFP）分析和源解析结果，溶剂源、交通源和工业源排放的甲苯、间/对二甲苯、邻二甲苯、1，2，3-三甲苯、正丁烷和异戊烷对O₃形成贡献显著，是中山市O₃污染治理应注意的重要前体物。建议中山市建立以VOCs控制为主导，VOCs和氮氧化物（NO_X）协同控制的长期O₃防控策略。     

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.