基于LMDI-SMC中国氮氧化物减排绩效动态演化规律研究

氮氧化物减排作为经济转型发展中的重要环节,需要探索促进区域均衡发展的差异化协调减排政策。文章首先利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型(LMDI法)将氮氧化物排放分解为排放因子、能源强度、经济结构、能源结构和经济发展5个因素得出2005-2015年中国30个省市氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数;然后,按照全国氮氧化物排放脱钩系数的平均水平,将其离散化为低、中低、中高和高4种类型构建其马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,考察其排放脱钩是否存在趋同现象;最后,引入空间滞后因素,构造其空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,分析在不同周围背景影响下氮氧化物排放脱钩的动态演化规律。结果表明,中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数呈现逐年上升趋势,且存在低脱钩、中低脱钩、中高脱钩及高脱钩4个趋同俱乐部;中国氮氧化物排放脱钩类型转移受周围背景的影响明显,在不同区域背景下同一类型的转移概率有所变化,同一区域背景下不同区域类型的转移概率不尽相同,且周围背景强化了区域氮氧化物排放脱钩的俱乐部趋同现象。通过对氮氧化物排放脱钩系数量化的减排绩效的时空动态变化进行分析可为氮氧化物区域协调减排提供参考建议。     

江西省农业可持续发展的生态安全评价

基于农业可持续发展状况建立江西省农业生态安全评价指标体系,采用聚类分析法将江西省农业生态安全度划分为不安全、较不安全、较安全和安全4个等级。从地域分异特征来看,环鄱区域生态系统遭受一定程度的破坏;赣南区域农业生态问题突出,农业生态安全性较差;赣中区域农业生态系统结构基本完整,农业生态安全状况较好。在11个地级市中吉安等6个地级市处于较安全等级,鹰潭等5个地级市处于较不安全等级。针对江西省农业可持续发展状况,探讨了农业生态安全体系建设问题。     

区域生态安全:概念及评价理论基础

借鉴国内外的研究成果,提出区域生态安全的概念是指在一定时空范围内,在自然及人类活动的干扰下,区域内生态环境条件以及所面临的生态环境问题不对人类生存和持续发展构成威胁,并且自然-经济-社会复合生态系统的脆弱性能够不断得到改善的状态。指出生态安全评价是一个多学科交叉的研究领域,其评价理论基础涉及可持续发展理论、生态系统服务功能理论、生态承载力理论、时空论和系统工程论等;生态安全是可持续发展的基础,两者具有内涵和目标的一致性;区域生态安全研究的目的就是平衡人类的自然资源利用与生存环境质量需求的矛盾,保证生态系统在持续安全的状态下提供服务;应用生态承载力的研究成果有助于补充和完善生态安全评价。区域生态安全评价强调研究对象的时空性和研究方法的系统性。多学科整合能更好地指导区域生态安全评价。     

静乐县生态脆弱性时空演变与分区研究

生态脆弱性研究是区域生态环境恢复与治理的重要依据。基于人为-自然因素综合作用体系,选取表征人类活动、社会经济、植被、气象、土壤和地形地貌等14个因子构建静乐县生态脆弱性评价指标体系。运用空间主成分分析法,结合遥感数据和地理信息系统技术,对山西省静乐县2007和2017年生态脆弱性进行定量评价和分区,揭示区域生态脆弱性时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)通过主成分特征分析发现,地形起伏度、土壤侵蚀程度、人均耕地面积、年均降水量和人均GDP是影响研究区生态脆弱性的主要因素。(2)静乐县生态脆弱性类型主要由微度脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱和重度脆弱4类组成。2007年以轻度脆弱和中度脆弱为主,2017年以中度脆弱和重度脆弱为主。空间上均呈现"中部高-两边低"的格局。(3)研究期内,各类生态脆弱性等级相互转移的总面积为662.84 km~2,以轻度和中度脆弱转移为主。轻度脆弱主要转向中度脆弱,转移面积为472.90 km~2;中度脆弱主要转向重度脆弱,转移面积为187.65 km~2。研究区空间上基本呈现"轻度向中度演变、中度向重度演变"的趋势,生态形势严峻。(4)根据时空演变特征将研究区划分为生态修复区、生态持平区和生态退化区。研究成果可为静乐县及同类型地区开展生态修复治理工作提供科学支撑和研究思路。     

区域生态安全格局规划研究进展及规划技术流程探讨

区域生态安全格局规划是化解生态保护与经济发展之间矛盾冲突的有效途径,进行区域生态安全格局规划研究具有重要理论和现实意义。但是,目前尚缺少对区域生态安全格局规划概念内涵、支撑理论、技术方法等相关文献的系统梳理和归纳总结。鉴于此,通过查阅大量文献资料、总结分析国内外相关研究成果,厘清了生态安全格局相关概念之间的逻辑关系,给出了区域生态安全格局规划的确切定义,对景观生态分类与适宜性评价、景观格局演变分析与动态模拟、生态安全预测预警、空间规划决策技术方法等区域生态安全格局规划相关支撑理论和技术方法,研究成果总结发现：景观生态分类指标构建理论和分类结果可靠性验证研究较为薄弱;应用较多的景观生态适宜性评价方法有“千层饼”法、层次分析法等传统方法和人工神经网络、遗传算法、元胞自动机等现代人工智能方法;景观格局变化驱动因子定量识别相对缺乏,各驱动因子间相互作用关系探讨不深入,常忽视景观格局本身对驱动因子的自适应和反馈作用;在众多景观格局动态演变模拟模型中, CA-Markov模型综合了CA和Markov模型的优点,可实现研究对象时空演变信息的精确挖掘;生态安全预警可弥补传统生态安全评价不能揭示生态环境质量长期动态变化状况的不足,能反映区域生态安全状况动态变化过程,是生态安全格局规划的重要基础;常见的空间规划决策技术方法主要有多准则数量优化法、空间分析技术方法、情景分析法、人工智能优化法和综合优化法,在综合优化法中 CLUE-S 模型能综合土地利用变化各驱动因子对不同时空尺度下的土地利用变化进行预测模拟,集成模型能集成多个模型优点来解决一些复杂空间格局优化问题,两者对进行区域生态安全格局规划方法探讨皆具有重要参考价值和借鉴意义。在此基础上,依据现阶段比较成熟的景观生态学理论、景观生态规划原理,综合集成现行空间规划决策技术方法,将区域生态安全格局规划技术流程概括为景观生态分类、景观格局演变分析、景观生态适宜性评价、景观格局演变动态模拟、生态安全预测预警、生态安全需求预测、多情景模式构建和总体规划目标确定、生态安全格局规划、多种规划方案比选、方案试点效果监测与评价、规划实施与执行监管等14个步骤。今后加强区域生态安全格局规划基础理论、技术方法、实践应用这3方面研究是未来该领域研究的重要方向。     

珠江三角洲城市群生态安全评价及态势分析

着眼于珠三角地区生态环境问题,进行城市群生态安全评价及预测研究,以掌握珠三角城市群生态安全时空分异,为地区生态安全维护与管理决策提供参考。基于PSR模型,从资源、环境、人口和社会经济等方面选取15个指标,构建珠三角城市群生态安全评价指标体系;利用加权平均法对珠三角各市及城市群1978—2015年的生态安全状况进行综合评价;采用回归分析方法构建预测模型,对珠三角城市群未来7年生态安全水平进行预测。结果表明,(1)区域内生态安全呈现出东、西和中部的分异,中部明显低于东、西部。(2)珠三角城市群生态安全呈现逐渐下滑态势,较严重的是广州、深圳和珠海市,评价值基本在0.39~0.72之间,处于较安全向不安全等级变化,广州以2008年和2012年为临界点;其余城市(区域)则由较安全下滑至临界安全;未来7年内生态安全趋势不容乐观。(3)惠州和江门市的生态安全曲线波动频繁,在0.43~0.76之间,但变化幅度居中。(4)各城市生态系统子系统承受的压力、做出的响应以及呈现的状态各具特色。未来珠三角各市需因地制宜地采取环境整治措施,以促进城市群朝着可持续方向发展。     

变化环境下北江下游年径流量的加权马尔可夫链预测

在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,西北江的水文环境发生了重大变化,导致北江下游的来水条件发生变化。采用斯波曼检验（Spearman’s rho test）和Mann-kendall法系统地分析了北江下游的年径流量的变化趋势和变异情况,在此基础上建立了北江下游变化环境下年径流量的加权马尔可夫链预测模型。结果表明：西北江近50年来的大规模联围筑闸、大规模无序采掘河床泥沙等剧烈的人类活动,导致北江下游三水水文站年径流量在1990年左右发生了变异;所建立的加权马尔可夫链预测结果表明,从变异后的序列中统计出来的状态＂转移概率＂矩阵,能准确地反映出环境变化后年径流量之间的关系,所建立的加权马尔可夫链法预测变化环境下的年径流量是可行的,预测效果也比较好;按文章确定的分级标准,依现有的资料信息推断,环境发生变化后,在未来长期过程中,北江下游出现平水年的机会最大,但年际间的丰枯波动概率也不小。这一结果值得水资源管理部门注意。     

基于放射源理论的区域生态系统评价方法

研究区域生态系统定量评价方法对区域生态系统的建设与保护具有十分重要的意义。从放射源理论出发,首次将生态影响距离、生态源及生态影响效应的概念引入分析评价中,提出了区域生态系统的定量评价方法,并建立了基于景观空间格局的区域生态系统生态影响的定量计算公式。甘垛镇新庄片和横泾镇沿荡片的应用实例表明,该方法原理简明、结果直观,为区域生态系统的科学评价提供了定量评价方法。     

基于生态足迹改进模型的叶尔羌河平原绿洲生态安全评价

基于生态系统服务理论改进生态足迹模型核算新疆叶尔羌河平原绿洲区域生态足迹(EF)和生态承载力(EC),通过生态赤字/盈余判断区域生产消费模式,并借助万元GDP生态足迹反映区域资源利用效率;利用生态压力指数(ETI)定量评价区域生态安全状态,并采用GM(1,1)模型预测其变化趋势。结果表明,近25 a叶尔羌河平原绿洲EF不断增大,年均增长率为15. 45%,EC总体呈减小趋势,区域生产消费仍处于可持续发展模式,但生态盈余不断减少,由18 969. 45×103hm2减少到5 636. 25×103hm2,减少70. 29%。区域资源利用效率不断提高,万元GDP生态足迹由17. 59 hm2·万元-1减至4. 61 hm2·万元-1; ETI不断增大,生态安全等级已由1级演变为2级,但目前研究区生态环境仍处于安全状态。各县域生态安全差别较大,以2016年为例,泽普和叶城县处于极不安全状态,巴楚县则处于很安全状态。GM(1,1)模型预测结果表明,未来30 a,区域EF将不断增大,EC不断减小,生态盈余也转为生态赤字,至2048年区域生态安全将恶化为极不安全。建议叶尔羌河平原绿洲的生产活动应着重保护水域生态系统,遏制草地、耕地的过度消费,以保证区域生产消费的可持续发展。     

生态安全:基于多尺度的考察

生态安全是内涵丰富的概念,包含生态系统、区域、全球等多重尺度,理解生态安全的尺度,是有效进行生态安全研究,进而构建全面的生态安全体系的基础。生态安全具有空间地域性、空间差异性和空间外溢性,每个尺度生态安全都有自身特征,同时尺度间又相互关联。全球尺度生态安全关系人类整体生存发展,区域尺度生态安全较容易在相应管治单元得到政策或工程的支持,生态系统尺度生态安全是理解生态安全机制最重要的尺度。不同尺度的生态安全均受自然和社会因素共同影响,根据尺度差异,全球尺度及区域尺度更关注社会因素影响,生态系统尺度更关注自然因素影响。不同生态介质的变化及影响特征,形成不同尺度生态安全问题。由于尺度不同,全球尺度生态安全评估主要采用模型法,区域尺度生态安全主要采用综合评价法、生态模型法和景观生态学方法等,生态系统生态安全尺度主要采用生态指标法和生态系统模型法。     

Spatial distribution of ecological security status assessment of West-Liaohe River based on geographic information system

Eco-security assessment is a hot research area in resource and environmental science, which involves data with much spatial, non-linear, and random features. Geographic information system (GIS), as a useful tool to analyze and manage spatial information, has a superior advantage in this field. A case study in the western part of the Liaohe River featuring a method of eco-security spatial differences (ESSD) based on GIS is developed in this paper. The method includes four steps: 1) developing the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) framework with site data; 2) digitizing West-Liaohe River and setting its GRID database of ecosecurity assessment indicators; 3) figuring out the relative membership degree (RMD) of eco-security indicators by using the analytical hierarchy process with the weight of indicator; 4) classifying the security zone and mapping the assessment result of eco-security status in grid by GIS method of assigning and clustering. The visual spatial differences of eco-security based on GIS enables decision makers to know the status of eco-security better in making policies for achieving sustainability.     

快速城市化地区生态安全空间模糊综合评价

以TM遥感影像为数据源、以GIS为平台,构建了基于压力-状态-响应模型的评价指标体系,采用空间模糊评价方法对义乌市生态安全进行了综合评价,并对评价结果在空间上的分布以及时间上的动态变化进行了分析.结果表明,义乌市整体的生态安全状况良好,呈现出从城市中心向边远郊区生态安全指数逐渐降低的生态安全格局;2000年到2007年...     

Urban-rural nitrogen emission from household food consumption in China: spatial pattern and dynamics analysis

The nitrogen emission from household food consumption (NEHFC) has played a vital role in sustainability development. Recent changes in household dietary have significantly accelerated reactive nitrogen emissions in China. However, the spatial patterns and dynamics of these flows between urban and rural areas remain unclear. Based on material flow and spatial-temporal analysis, our study investigated the patterns of Chinese urban-rural NEHFC during 1993–2015. Increasingly apparent regional disparities were found in both the spatial patterns of urban-rural NEHFC during the study period. Notably, the spatial autocorrelation of urban NEHFC demonstrated a ‘U’ type, compared with a recent decreasing Moran’s I index of rural NEHFC. Moreover, the regional spatial-temporal variation of per capita urban NEHFC exhibited ‘South (High)-North (Low)-Middle (Fast)’ trend. By contrast, the hotspot of per capita rural NEHFC mainly concentrated in South-eastern China with a distinct regional changing of ‘Middle-east (Fast) & west (Slow).’ The Social-Economic and Regional-Development Index were far more critical than the Natural-Geographic Index to the spatial-temporal variation of per capita urban NEHFC, whereas the rural NEHFC was driven by the combined actions of all the three indexes. Our study highlighted the necessity of ‘Location-Suitable’ and ‘Urban-rural recycling’ nitrogen management strategies for reducing the risk of NEHFC in China.     

Evaluating the Effects of Anthropogenic Stressors on Source‐Sink Dynamics in Pond‐Breeding Amphibians

Although interwetland dispersal is thought to play an important role in regional persistence of pond‐breeding amphibians, few researchers have modeled amphibian metapopulation or source‐sink dynamics. Results of recent modeling studies suggest anthropogenic stressors, such as pollution, can negatively affect density and population viability of amphibians breeding in isolated wetlands. Presumably population declines also result in reduced dispersal to surrounding (often uncontaminated) habitats, potentially affecting dynamics of nearby populations. We used our data on the effects of mercury (Hg) on the American toad ( Bufo americanus) as a case study in modeling the effects of anthropogenic stressors on landscape‐scale amphibian dynamics. We created a structured metapopulation model to investigate regional dynamics of American toads and to evaluate the degree to which detrimental effects of Hg contamination on individual populations can disrupt interpopulation dynamics. Dispersal from typical American toad populations supported nearby populations that would otherwise have been extirpated over long time scales. Through support of such sink populations, dispersal between wetland‐associated subpopulations substantially increased overall productivity of wetland networks, but this effect declined with increasing interwetland distance and decreasing wetland size. Contamination with Hg substantially reduced productivity of wetland‐associated subpopulations and impaired the ability of populations to support nearby sinks within relevant spatial scales. Our results add to the understanding of regional dynamics of pond‐breeding amphibians, the wide‐reaching negative effects of environmental contaminants, and the potential for restoration or remediation of degraded habitats. Evaluación de los Efectos de Estresantes Antropogénicos sobre la Dinámica Fuente‐Vertedero en Anfibios que se Reproducen en Charcas     

Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents

Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process‐based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species’ dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.     

干旱区生态安全问题及其评价原理——以新疆为例

普遍的生态敏感性和整体的生态退化趋势,使干旱区成为社会适应和经济适度极端脆弱区,其生态安全问题的典型性和突出性,为完善区域生态安全评价理论体系提供了理想靶区。根据生态安全评价的一般原理和目标,通过剖析新疆绿洲区生态安全问题的驱动、压力和响应机理,主要利用地带性共扼和非地带性耦合分析方法,从哲学观和生态系统、景观生态、土地类型及其稳定性格局层面,初步构建了干旱区生态安全评价的基本原理,得出确保有效的生态需水和生态水位,协调水生态及水安全功能,是干旱区生态安全评价的基础;基于生态承载和再生恢复禀赋的合理、适度利用优势资源,是绿洲开发的生态安全保障;维护天然绿洲和荒漠的“生态标本”价值,引导土地利用的生态化转向,是绿洲生态安全评价的客观依据;通过系统的生态规划和景观设计,保持异质景观的竞争性统一和生态圈层结构的动态稳定性,是干旱区生态安全评价的核心内容。     

Age-dependent population dynamics with several interior variables and spatial spread

The problems of the asymptotic behavior of age-dependent population models with interior and spatial structures are considered. It is proved that the existence and uniqueness of the stable state and its exact form is founded for general linear models. Problems on the speed of convergence to stable state and transitional effects are investigated. Methods of solving two special classes of nonlinear models (separate models and models of the Gurtin-MacCami type) are suggested. A model of forest stand dynamics on the basis of conception of layer-mosaic characteristics of the spatial-temporal structure of stands is examined as an example of the application of given results.     

珠江三角洲土地利用变化空间自相关分析

通过对复杂土地利用地学现象的空间与时间上的综合表达和描述,可揭示土地利用时空结构演变的内在规律,可以为研究区土地资源的合理利用、优化配置和可持续发展提供科学依据。本文利用珠江三角洲1990-2005年的土地利用数据,采用空间自相关分析方法对珠江三角洲土地利用／覆盖变化的空间特征进行了实证研究。通过对研究区全域空间自相关、单变量区域空间自相关、双变量区域空间自相关的计算,表明研究区土地利用／覆盖的全域空间自相关较弱,土地利用和开发存在随机性。单变量区域空间自相关和双变量区域空间白相关在不同区域、不同时期显现不同形态,揭示了研究区内部发展的差异性。空间自相关分析方法可直观地显示分析结果,不失为一种深入理解区域土地利用格局和变化的重要和有益的方法。     

Scale-dependent variation in coral community similarity across sites, islands, and island groups

Community similarity is the proportion of species richness in a region that is shared on average among communities within that region. The slope of local richness (alpha diversity) regressed on regional richness (gamma diversity) can serve as an index of community similarity across regions with different regional richness. We examined community similarity in corals at three spatial scales (among transects at a site, sites on an island, and islands within an island group) across a 10 000-km longitudinal diversity gradient in the west-central Pacific Ocean. When alpha diversity was regressed on gamma diversity, the slopes, and thus community similarity, increased with scale (0.085, 0.261, and 0.407, respectively) because a greater proportion of gamma diversity was subsumed within alpha diversity as scale increased. Using standard randomization methods, we also examined how community similarity differed between observed and randomized assemblages and how this difference was affected by spatial separation of species within habitat types and specialization of species to three habitat types (reef flats, crests, and slopes). If spatial separation within habitat types and/or habitat specialization (i.e., underdispersion) occurs, fewer species are shared among assemblages than the random expectation. When the locations of individual coral colonies were randomized within and among habitat types, community similarity was 46-47% higher than that for observed assemblages at all three scales. We predicted that spatial separation of coral species within habitat types should increase with scale due to dispersal/extinction dynamics in this insular system, but that specialization of species to different habitat types should not change because habitat differences do not change with scale. However, neither habitat specialization nor spatial separation within habitat types differed among scales. At the two larger scales, each accounted for 22-24% of the difference in community similarity between observed and randomized assemblages. At the smallest scale (transect-site), neither spatial separation within habitat types nor habitat specialization had significant effects on community similarity, probably due to the small size of transect samples. The results suggest that coral species can disperse among islands in an island group as easily as they can among sites on an island over time scales that are relevant to their establishment and persistence on reefs.     

Spatial dynamics of Mediterranean coastal regions

During recent decades the northern shores of the Mediterranean have experienced a rapid transformation; mainly due to touristic development. At present, more than 25% of the worldÕs hotel accommodation is found in the Mediterranean. This paper presents some figures illustrating the related growth of different sectors of coastal economy, such as housing, tourism, industry and traffic. A better control of these developments is urgently needed. To this end a spatial planning policy should be elaborated which fully incorporates environmental issues. The concept of integrated coastal (zone) management has only recently been introduced in regional and national policies. A classification of spatial dynamics including settlement-environment relationships can stimulate the implementation of integrated planning policies in the coastal belt of the Mediterranean region.