Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality

It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions.     

Identifying sources of fecal contamination inexpensively with targeted sampling and bacterial source tracking

Most bacterial source tracking (BST) methods are too expensive for most communities to afford. We developed targeted sampling as a prelude to BST to reduce these costs. We combined targeted sampling with three inexpensive BST methods, Enterococcus speciation, detection of the esp gene, and fluorometry, to confirm the sources of fecal contamination to beaches on Georgia's Jekyll and Sea Islands during calm and stormy weather conditions. For Jekyll Island, the most likely source of contamination was bird feces because the percentage of Ent. faecalis was high (30%) and the esp gene was not detected. For the Sea Island beach during calm conditions, the most likely sources of fecal contamination were leaking sewer lines and wildlife feces. The leaking sewer lines were confirmed with fluorometry and detection of the esp gene. For the Sea Island beach during stormflow conditions, the most likely sources of fecal contamination were wildlife feces and runoff discharging from two county-maintained pipes. For the pipes, the most likely source of contamination was bird feces because the percentage of Ent. faecalis was high (30%) and the esp gene was not detected. Sediments were also a reservoir of fecal enterococci for both Jekyll and Sea Islands. Combining targeted sampling with two or more BST methods identified sources of fecal contamination quickly, easily, and inexpensively. This combination was the first time targeted sampling was conducted during stormy conditions, and the first time targeted sampling was combined with enterococcal speciation, detection of the esp gene, and fluorometry.     

Modelling land use change with generalized linear models--a multi-model analysis of change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana

This paper develops an approach to modelling land use change that links model selection and multi-model inference with empirical models and GIS. Land use change is frequently studied, and understanding gained, through a process of modelling that is an empirical analysis of documented changes in land cover or land use patterns. The approach here is based on analysis and comparison of multiple models of land use patterns using model selection and multi-model inference. The approach is illustrated with a case study of rural housing as it has developed for part of Gallatin County, Montana, USA. A GIS contains the location of rural housing on a yearly basis from 1860 to 2000. The database also documents a variety of environmental and socio-economic conditions. A general model of settlement development describes the evolution of drivers of land use change and their impacts in the region. This model is used to develop a series of different models reflecting drivers of change at different periods in the history of the study area. These period specific models represent a series of multiple working hypotheses describing (a) the effects of spatial variables as a representation of social, economic and environmental drivers of land use change, and (b) temporal changes in the effects of the spatial variables as the drivers of change evolve over time. Logistic regression is used to calibrate and interpret these models and the models are then compared and evaluated with model selection techniques. Results show that different models are 'best' for the different periods. The different models for different periods demonstrate that models are not invariant over time which presents challenges for validation and testing of empirical models. The research demonstrates (i) model selection as a mechanism for rating among many plausible models that describe land cover or land use patterns, (ii) inference from a set of models rather than from a single model, (iii) that models can be developed based on hypothesised relationships based on consideration of underlying and proximate causes of change, and (iv) that models are not invariant over time.     

Agroecology in the tropics: Achieving a balance between land use and preservation

Agroecology is the application of ecological concepts and principles to the design and management of sustainable agricultural systems. An agroecological approach to agriculture has special importance in the humid tropics where agricultural development and the preservation of tropical forests are most often in direct conflict. It is proposed that a more sustainable approach to development is needed, where agroecosystems depend on low external inputs, function more on the use of locally available and renewable resources, have benign impacts on the environment, and are based on the knowledge and culture of the local inhabitants. Examples of traditional agroecosystem management in Mesoamerica that can provide this basis are presented. The preservation of both biological and cultural diversity are integral to the long-term sustainable management of natural resources in the tropics.     

Belief network models of land manager decisions and land use change

A two-stage model of land use change is described, which is driven by the types of decisions that land managers make when changing their broad styles of use. The first stage uses decision modelling techniques to assess if a manager is currently satisfied with the present situation, when compared to various potential alternatives. If this evaluation indicates satisfaction, it is assumed that the present land use will continue. However, if it indicates dissatisfaction, Belief Network techniques are used to estimate, in more detail, both how dissatisfied the manager is and whether the costs of changing, from the present use to a potentially better one, will be out-weighed by the anticipated benefits. The proposed models can use a variety of cost and benefit criteria (e.g. financial, social and ecological). The approach is illustrated with a case-study of the factors that might influence changes from farming to forestry in marginal upland areas of the UK.     

Society for environmental geochemistry and health twelth European meeting contaminated land call for papers

Society for environmental geochemistry and health twelth European meeting contaminated land call for papers     

Modelling land use change and environmental impact

Land use change models are tools for understanding and explaining the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Recently, new models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially explicit models focussed on patterns of change as well as agent-based models focused on the underlying decision processes. These developments improve the use of land use change models in environmental impact studies. This special issue documents these developments: (i) analysing the system properties in a biophysical and socio-economic context at multiple scales; (ii) integrating spatially explicit land use change models in integrated assessment models; (iii) visualising and quantifying the potential effects of land use change in trade-off curves, to support land users and policy makers in their decisions; and (iv) modelling of the actual decision making process with agent-based modelling. A new promising future development is the incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing land use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa. Unfortunately such dynamic feedbacks between the socio-economic and biophysical model components are still not or only partially operational in current models and are therefore the most important challenge for land use and environmental modellers.     

Structuring international development decisions: confronting trade-offs between land use and community development in Costa Rica

For more than half a century, research and practice in international development has focused on improving the quality of life of people living in developing regions of the world. Recently, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers have recognized the need to blend insights from experts and community stakeholders in development decisions. Research in the decision sciences tells us that these kinds of multiparty and multiattribute decisions are extremely challenging. However, recent experience using structured decision-making (SDM) approaches suggests that the quality of both expert and stakeholder input, and resulting decisions, can be improved by ensuring that people address a series of basic principles relating to identifying objectives and their associated attributes, estimating the consequences of proposed actions, and directly confronting trade-offs that arise during the evaluation of management alternatives. In this paper, we provide an overview of SDM and then discuss a research initiative aimed at applying the approach to a pressing international development problem in rural Costa Rica: management of the lucrative but also environmentally destructive pineapple industry. The objectives of this research were twofold: First, we sought to help inform policy decisions by eliciting land management preferences regarding the pineapple industry from people living in communities surrounding plantations. Second, we evaluated the effectiveness of the SDM approach in a developing community context.     

Rural blight and land use planning in Hong Kong

Reader in the Department of Geography and Geology at the University of Hong Kong. Despite the rapid urbanization of Hong Kong over the last few decades, until the late 1960s a serene countryside, contrasting with the bustling city close at hand, was left by default. Whereas many of the extra-urban hills have been designated as country parks, which guards them against development, the farmland and villages in the lowland have been intruded upon increasingly by non-conforming uses. The new-town programme initiated in the 1970s accelerated the rural degradation. Agricultural decline and urban-generated forces such as city expansion, land-value appreciation, port development, suburbanization and China trade provided the impetus. Urban-oriented activities, in particular open storage and port back-up, informal factories and village houses, began to encroach indiscriminately. A landmark court judgement in 1983 allowing such uses of farmland initiated a rampant spread and rural blight. The small rural realm has telescoped and accentuated the degradation. The policy of minimum interference in indigenous villagers' affairs accounted partly for the slow response. Belated statutory measures, introduced in 1991, ushered modern planning into the rural areas for the first time. The long-term policy aims at containing the proliferation, discontinuing uses at sensitive locations and opening sites and facilities for orderly accommodation of an inevitable urban overspill.     

Data model for the collaboration between land administration systems and agricultural land parcel identification systems

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) has dramatically changed after 1992, and from then on the CAP focused on the management of direct income subsidies instead of production-based subsidies. For this focus, Member States (MS) are expected to establish Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS), including a Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) as the spatial part of IACS. Different MS have chosen different solutions for their LPIS. Currently, some MS based their IACS/LPIS on data from their Land Administration Systems (LAS), and many others use purpose built special systems for their IACS/LPIS. The issue with these different IACS/LPIS is that they do not have standardized structures; rather, each represents a unique design in each MS, both in the case of LAS based or special systems. In this study, we aim at designing a core data model for those IACS/LPIS based on LAS. For this purpose, we make use of the ongoing standardization initiatives for LAS (Land Administration Domain Model: LADM) and IACS/LPIS (LPIS Core Model: LCM). The data model we propose in this study implies the collaboration between LADM and LCM and includes some extensions. Some basic issues with the collaboration model are discussed within this study: registration of farmers, land use rights and farming limitations, geometry/topology, temporal data management etc. For further explanation of the model structure, sample instance level diagrams illustrating some typical situations are also included.     

Impact assessment of the European biofuel directive on land use and biodiversity

This paper presents an assessment of the potential impact of the EUs biofuel directive on European land use and biodiversity. In a spatially explicit analysis, it is determined which ecologically valuable land use types are likely to be directly replaced by biofuel crops. In addition, it is determined which land use types may be indirectly replaced by biofuel crops through competition over land between biofuel and food crops. Four scenarios of land use change are analyzed for the period 2000–2030 while for each scenario two policy variants are analyzed respectively with and without implementation of the biofuel directive. The results indicate that the area of semi natural vegetation, forest and High Nature Value farmland directly replaced by biofuel crops is small in all scenarios and differs little between policy variants. The direct effects of the directive on European land use and biodiversity therefore are relatively minor. The indirect effects of the directive on European land use and biodiversity are much larger than its direct effects. The area semi natural vegetation is found to be 3–8% smaller in policy variants with the directive as compared to policy variants without the directive. In contrast, little difference is found between the policy variants with respect to the forest area. The results of this study show that the expected indirect effects of the directive on biodiversity are much greater than its direct effects. This suggests that indirect effects need to be taken explicitly into account in assessing the environmental effects of biofuel crop cultivation and designing sustainable pathways for implementing biofuel policies.     

Sustainability of ground water quality considering land use changes and public health risks

One of the major environmental issues of concern to policy-makers is the increased vulnerability of ground water quality (GWQ). Another issue of equal interest is the sustainability of natural resources for future generations. To understand the sustainability of the natural resources such as water in general, one needs to understand the impact of future land use changes on the natural resources. This work proposes a methodology to address sustainability of GWQ considering land use changes, aquifer vulnerability to multiple contaminants, and public health risks. The methodology was demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The land transformation model predicted that nearly 60 percent of the land use practices would change in the Sumas-Blaine Aquifer by the year 2015. The accuracy of the LTM model predictions increased to greater levels as the spatial resolution was decreased. Aquifer vulnerability analysis was performed for major contaminants using the binary logistic regression (LR) method. The LR model, along with the predicted future land use, was used to estimate the future GWQ using two indices-carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic ground water qualities. Sustainability of GWQ was then analyzed using the concept of 'strong' sustainability. The sustainability map of GWQ showed improvements in many areas where urbanization is expected to occur. The positive impact of urbanization on GWQ is an indication of the extensive damage caused by existing agricultural activities in the study area.     

Agricultural land use and soil degradation in a part of kwara state,Nigeria

Summary Because of the alarming rate of increase in population all over tropical Africa, and the consequent need to grow more food, several writers have suggested the practice of continuous or permanent cultivation in place of the traditional bush fallowing system. This suggestion has been made without recognising the natural vulnerability of tropical soils and the associated problems of actual soil degradation, especially in situations where fertilizer inputs are limited. This study examines the effects of different land use practices on actual soil degradation in a part of Kwara State, Nigeria. This involves comparing the physical and chemical properties of the soils in areas under continuous cultivation, fallow and forests, and using the technique of factor analysis to isolate indices which best describe these phenomena. The results show that the main effects of continuous cultivation in the area examined were to increase the acidity of the soil, that soil organic matter content was likely to double after 10 years of fallow conditions, and that continuous cultivation was capable of reducing the cation-exchange capacity of soils by at least one-third.In general, the soils of the area of study display marked variability, especially with respect to their chemical properties. This is mainly due to variations in soil organic matter content, which in itself is due to differences in agricultural land use practices. Factor analysis of the soil properties generated four main indices of actual soil degradation, of which organic matter is the most important. Some implications of the results are examined, particularly in relation to generating an awareness of actual soil degradation and land use planning.Dr J. Oluwole Ameyan, the senior author, is on the staff of the University of Ilorin. Mr O. Ogidiolu is at the Department of Geography, Ondo State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria.     

Understanding large-scale deforestation in southern Jinotega, Nicaragua from 1978 to 1999 through the examination of changes in land use and land cover

Nicaragua, home to the largest remaining extent of rainforest in Central America (total surface area) and to a significant indigenous population, has lost approximately half of its forest cover since 1950. This major and rapid loss of forest cover has been explained as the consequence of an eastward moving agricultural frontier that cuts through the region of Jinotega. If the current deforestation rate continues, the country could lose its remaining forest cover over the course of the next two decades; therefore, it is essential that the dynamics and relationships of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in this region are understood. To examine LUCC in Nicaragua over time, Landsat imagery from the southern portion of the region of Jinotega, taken in 1978, 1987, and 1999 was utilized. A remote-sensing method, supervised classification, which allows for the grouping of spectrally similar values for each year, followed by an image change detection analysis (postclassification comparison) was conducted. Groundtruthing (field validation) was conducted in 2006 to validate the data, which yielded increasing overall accuracy rates of 71.68% for 1978, 82.35% for 1987, and 84.38% for 1999. The classification and change detection results showed that if the agricultural cultivation overtook this region, it happened before 1978. Therefore, the possibility that either deforestation did not actually occur along an agricultural frontier or that it was located further east exists; this would be an interesting subject for future studies. There was, however, clear evidence of increased forest cover from 1987 to 1999 near the urban center, correlating with the enforced reforestation law in the city of Jinotega.     

Water resources and land use and cover in a humid region: the southeastern United States

It is widely recognized that forest and water resources are intricately linked. Globally, changes in forest cover to accommodate agriculture and urban development introduce additional challenges for water management. The U.S. Southeast typifies this global trend as predictions of land-use change and population growth suggest increased pressure on water resources in coming years. Close attention has long been paid to interactions between people and water in arid regions; however, based on information from regions such as the Southeast, it is evident that much greater focus is required to sustain a high-quality water supply in humid areas as well. To that end, we review hydrological, physicochemical, biological, and human and environmental health responses to conversion of forests to agriculture and urban land uses in the Southeast. Commonly, forest removal leads to increased stream sediment and nutrients, more variable flow, altered habitat and stream and riparian communities, and increased risk of human health effects. Although indicators such as the percentage of impervious cover signify overall watershed alteration, the threshold to disturbance, or the point at which effects can been observed in stream and riparian parameters, can be quite low and often varies with physiographic conditions. In addition to current land use, historical practices can greatly influence current water quality. General inferences of this study may extend to many humid regions concerning climate, environmental thresholds, and the causes and nature of effects.     

Exploring changes in Ecuadorian land use for food production and their effects on natural resources

A model is used for the dynamic and spatially explicit exploration of near future agricultural land-use changes. In a case study for Ecuador, different plausible scenarios are formulated, taking into account possible developments in national food demand until the year 2010. The protection of nature parks and restrictions due to land degradation are evaluated with respect to their possible spatial impacts on the land-use change dynamics within the country. Under the assumptions of the demand scenarios, agricultural land-use expands significantly, resulting in more use of land in existing agricultural areas and frontier-type expansion into relatively undisturbed natural areas. The patterns of change depend on the increase in demand, competition between land-use types, changes in driving factors of land use, and the area and characteristics of land that is excluded from agricultural use. The modelled land-use dynamics are related to their possible impacts on the natural resource base, specifically soil fertility. The results indicate potential negative effects of land-use changes on the soil nutrient balance and biodiversity. It is argued that spatial and temporal quantification of land-use dynamics at the landscape level can support research and policies aimed at understanding the driving factors of land-use change and the behaviour of complex agro-ecosystems under changing conditions at different scales. In this way, issues dealing with sustainable food production and the management of the natural resource base can be addressed in a more integrated and quantitative manner.     

Changes in flood-plain vegetation and land use along the Missouri River from 1826 to 1972

Changes in vegetation and land use since 1826 were evaluated along the 800 kilometer portion of the Missouri River flood-plain that extends across the State of Missouri using County Land Office Survey records for 1826 and aerial photos for 1937, 1958, and 1972. The combined results show a decline in flood-plain forest coverage from 76% in 1826 to 13% in 1972; cultivated land increased from 18% to 83% during the same time. Uncultivated-unforested areas increased from 6% in 1826 to 27% in 1937, then declined to 1% in 1972; these changes occurred coincident with extensive bank-stabilization and channelization activities initiated in 1912 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Riverbank stabilization activity since that time may account for the increased rate of decline in flood-plain forests from 0.25% per year between 1826 and 1937 to 1.6% per year between 1937 and 1972.The overall species composition of the 1826 flood-plain forests was found to be most similar to mature forest stands evaluated in 1972; similar frequencies in 1826 and 1972 occurred for hackberry (Celtis occidentalis; 80% in 1826, 83% in 1972), elm (Ulmus spp.; 80% and 83%), and sycamore (Platanus occidentalis; 57% and 50%). Pawpaw (Asimina triloba), found only in mature flood-plain forests in 1972, was recorded along 54% of the 1826 section lines.These combined data indicate (1) that pre-settlement flood-plain forests were extensive and included frequent, mature stands, (2) that in certain areas substantial portions of the flood-plain were in cultivation prior to extensive riverbank stabilization and channelization, and (3) that increased flood-plain forest clearing occurred coincident with increased bank-stabilization activities.     

Regional characteristics of land use in Northeast and Southern Blue Ridge Province: Associations with acid rain effects on surface-water chemistry

The Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP) is one of several studies being conducted by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to assess risk to surface waters from acidic deposition in the eastern United States. In one phase of DDRP, land use, wetland, and forest cover data were collected for statistical samples of 145 Northeast lake and 35 Southern Blue Ridge Province stream watersheds in the United States. Land-use and other data then were extrapolated from individual to target watershed populations. Project statistical design allows summarization of results for various subsets of the target population. This article discusses results and implications of the land-use and land-cover characterization for both regions. Forest cover was the primary land use in both regions. In the Northeast, developed (agriculture and urban) land was positively associated with surface-water chemistry values for acid neutralizing capacity, Ca plus Mg, pH, and sulfate in the Pocono/Catskill subregion. Extensive wetlands and beaver activity occur in parts of the Northeast region, whereas topography limits wetland and riparian development in the Southern Blue Ridge Province. Northeast soils have low sulfate adsorption capacity, most watersheds are near sulfur steady state, and lake sulfate concentrations are controlled principally by levels of sulfur deposition. Net annual sulfur retention in Northeast watersheds is positively correlated with occurrence of wetlands and beaver impoundments. In contrast, most Southern Blue Ridge Province soils have high sulfate adsorption capacities, resulting in high net watershed sulfur retention. At the present time, stream sulfate concentrations and percent sulfur retention are controlled principally by soil chemical properties related to adsorption rather than atmospheric deposition and land use. The information in this document has been funded wholly by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to the agency's peer and administrative review, and it has been approved for publication as an EPA document. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

Nutrients and suspended solids in dry weather and storm flows from a tropical catchment with various proportions of rural and urban land use

The results of an investigation characterizing the nutrients and suspended solids contained in stormwater from Kranji Catchment in Singapore are reported in this paper. Stormwater samples were collected from 4 locations and analyzed for the following eleven analytes: TOC, DOC, TN, TDN, NH₄⁺, NO₂⁻ + NO₃⁻ (NO_x), TP, TDP, OP, SiO₂ and TSS. Stormwater was sampled from catchments with various proportions of rural and urban land use, including forested areas, grassed areas, agricultural and residential and commercial areas. The event mean concentrations (EMCs) of nutrients and TSS from sampling stations which have agricultural land use activities upstream were found to be higher. Comparison of site EMCs (SMCs) with published data showed that the SMCs of the nutrients and TSS are generally higher than SMCs reported for forested areas but lower than published SMCs for urban areas. Positive correlations (p < 5%) were found between loading and peak flow at locations most impacted by ubanisation or agricultural activities. Correlation between loading and rainfall variables was less distinct. EMC was found to correlate less with rainfall and flow variables compared to pollutant loading. Unlike loading, no consistent pattern exists linking EMC to any particular storm or flow variable in any of the catchments. Lastly, positive correlations were obtained between the particulate forms of nitrogen and phosphorus and TSS.