几种气象资料在人工增雨效果评估中的应用研究

为了在人工增雨作业后尽快地为地方政府和环保等有关部门提供作业效果评估报告,对本地新装激光雷达和雨滴谱实测资料等进行了应用分析。结果表明,激光雷达探测的云光学厚度实况资料与卫星反演资料差异不大,在作业指挥和较大范围增雨作业的效果评估中均可应用,高时间精度的雨滴谱资料用于人工增雨效果评估较为快捷、直观、方便。这两种新资料的应用可填补日常观测资料在缺测时的不足,其评估结果能及时为环保等部门治理污染提供参考。     

三江源地区空中云水资源人工增雨潜力及其对生态环境影响评估

2011年中国气象局人工影响天气中心提出了CWR-PEP增雨潜力评估方法,文章应用该评估方法对2017～2019年青海省三江源地区人工增雨潜力作了评估,得出:2017～2019年青海省三江源地区人工增雨(雪)共增加降水62.18～93.26亿m~3。其中,飞机增雨作业增加降水51.00～76.51亿m~3,地面增雨作业增加降水11.18～16.75亿m~3,增雨(雪)作业补充了三江源地区水资源短缺,使扎陵湖和鄂陵湖水体面积增加,牧草覆盖度提高,江河源径流量增加。该方法对空中水资源科学合理开发提供了依据,对今后人工增雨潜力评估工作具有一定意义。     

2018年玉树隆宝滩湿地恢复型人工增雨作业效果分析

基于2018年青海省玉树州隆宝滩湿地恢复型人工增雨作业情况,利用双比分析统计检验和雷达物理检验方法,对两次增雨作业效果进行了分析,结果表明:(1)作业前雷达回波强度有减弱趋势,随着作业的进行,试验区内雷达回波又出现增强趋势。(2)利用双比分析方法对逐3h降水量的统计分析,2次增雨作业过程的平均作业效果为每3h增加降水量0.35mm,相对增加降水量22.8%。     

秦皇岛地区气候干旱与人工增雨的探索

气候分析表明:随着气候变化及环境城市化,秦皇岛市区域年平均气温指数呈上升趋势,特别是近10年出现了连续偏高的异常变化;年降水指数呈明显减小趋势,出现了连年干旱,高温少雨不仅使生态环境不断恶化,而且使农田干旱、水库蓄水严重不足,因此人工增雨变得更加迫切。目前,秦皇岛市人工增雨工作已进入常态化、业务化轨道。总结1999—2008年火箭人工增雨经验,人工增雨操作的技术关键:一是分析局地降水气候规律;二是利用碘化银进行人工增雨需要适当的温度条件,即所谓进行冷云催化。在增雨时应充分考虑这一物理机制,选择好合适的发射高度,把催化剂送到可催化的温度环境中,以保证作业成功率。     

秦皇岛地区干旱趋势分析及人工增雨条件

通过分析秦皇岛地区水资源及人均占有率、气候干旱化之现状及秦皇岛地区降水的特点,发现秦皇岛降水有明显日变化特征（凌晨1～2时和傍晚17～18时降水量较大）。从化学制剂的选择、碘化银成核环境确定、积云增雨的高度判断三个方面提出了人工增雨作业条件,在作业实践中取得了良好效果。     

人工增雨（雪）效果评估方法探索

人工增雨（雪）常用的评估方法为统计检验和物理检验,统计检验需要大量试验样本,且随机化试验在我国难以实现,大量样本无从获得。物理检验目前主要是雷达观测演变状况和飞机直接观测云内微物理参数,由于技术和能力有限,这些方法都难以实现。为了在人工影响天气作业后尽快得出评估结果供政府及环境保护等部门参考,利用雨滴谱记录数据对一次人工增雪作业后的效果进行了评估,发现这些数据在没有常规降雪记录情况下具有一定的参考价值。从评估结果看,人工增雪作业后,降水强度有明显增大的趋势。     

基于人工神经网络的突发环境事故应急系统

突发环境事故现场具有形势紧迫、信息获取困难等特点,引入人工神经网络技术(Artificial Neural Networks,ANN)设计开发的突发环境事故应急决策支持系统(ANN-EEDSS),能够完成现场应急指挥调度的定量化决策支持。关键技术包括突发环境事故神经网络构建方法,事故信息与应急措施的数字化方法,决策信息的翻译表示,事故影响因素的权重分析。最后阐述了系统现场运行和工作的流程。     

基于3S达里诺尔自然保护区地理信息系统设计

结合RS、GPS技术,以Supermap为开发平台构建达里诺尔国家级自然保护区地理信息系统,实现了对达里诺尔国家级自然保护区信息的管理和分析等基本功能.采用双重控制功能使系统具有良好的可操作性,利用双向查询功能使属性信息与空间信息紧密相关,真正做到了"图文并茂";利用其专题图制作功能有助于对某一现象的现状进行预测、预报以及分析其规律和联系.同时,系统采用分层技术对空间数据进行储存,便于信息的叠加分析和提取.     

绿色环保修井作业配套装置的研究与应用

油水井小修作业施工时,在起下油杆、油管和清蜡作业中,油杆、油管会将井内油水带出地面,对作业施工现场和周围环境造成污染。为解决这一问题,研究开发了一套绿色环保修井作业配套装置。从油井修井作业过程中的起下油杆、起下油管、清蜡作业三道作业工序,控制井内油水的排放,减少对周围环境的污染,消除安全隐患,实现绿色环保作业,节约了作业成本,提高了经济效益。     

非常规油气田开发作业废液处理站选址模型研究

针对作业废液处理站选址问题，通过分析长庆某油气田油气井点位分布、废水产量，注水点位置 信息，运用Python、Arcgic、Excel等分析工具，以作业废液处理站建设成本与作业废液的运输成本之和最小为目标函数，节点单日作业废液产量之和小于等于作业废液处理站日处理量为主要约束条件，在路径不明的情况 下，修正路径距离，建立废液处理站选址模型并进行求解。模型运行结果表明，通过选址模型可以得出作业废 液处理站的最优坐标点位置，随着设定作业废液处理站数量增加，运输费用逐渐降低，单座处理站规模降低，但运算量也随之增大，选址模型对非常规油气田开发作业废液处理站的选址具有指导意义。     

耕作措施对土壤入渗产流影响的实验研究

采用人工模拟降雨和室内分析相结合的方法,研究了黄土区不同耕作措施对降雨入渗的影响。结果表明：①不同耕作管理措施对降雨入渗的影响效用不同,在相同雨强和坡度下,降雨入渗速率表现为：耙耱地〉人工掏挖〉直线坡,在中小雨强和较短滞后情况下,这种情况表现更为显著;②不同耕作管理措施对降雨产流的影响效用不同,在相同雨强和坡度下,产流滞后表现为：耙耱地〉人工掏挖〉直线坡,在中小雨强和较短滞后情况下,这种情况表现更为显著;③根据水量平衡原理,得出了不同耕作管理措施不同坡度下入渗及产流滞后随雨强的变化关系式。上述结果为黄土高原坡耕地水土流失的治理和管理,提供了一定的理论依据。     

Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

成都市活水公园人工湿地系统10年运行回顾

成都市活水公园是1997年建成的世界上首座以展示"人工湿地水处理系统"和"仿峨眉山亚热带自然植被"为主要内容的、以水保护为主题的生态公园。它所展示的人工湿地处理系统工程,现己正常运行了10年。本文通过回顾10年来活水公园人工湿地工程设计、建设与运行的经验,结合当前己建和在建的人工湿地工程中所存在的一些问题,提出一些看法与建议。供从事人工湿地工程设计、施工及管理人员参考。     

天山中部公路建设对生态环境的影响及对策——以G218线新源至库尔勒段公路改建工程为例

改建长度为303.97km的新源至库尔勒段公路穿越4个不同类型的气候区以及4个结构、功能各异的生态区段,沿途经过那拉提风景旅游区和巩乃斯国家级森林公园.通过评价该公路改建和运营对生态环境的影响,并结合公路改建前多年运营以来沿线生态系统的自然恢复程度的调查,提出一些人为缓解和恢复的对策.     

APPLICATION OF A SINGLE RESERVOIR OPERATION POLICY TO A RAIN WATER CISTERN SYSTEM1

The operation policy for a single reservoir is applied to a rain water cistern system because the functions of a cistern are similar to a simple single reservoir. Since the cistern is a closed system, water loss is negligible. In this study, a dynamic programming analysis has been made to study the effects of the probable weekly rainfall and the water storage in the cistern towards the water consumption policy. The result of this study indicates that the water consumption rate should be adjusted into a lower rate when the water storage in the cistern is low and/or when the expected probable weekly rainfall is low if the owner of the cistern does not want to risk the chance of an empty cistern. The demand for a reliable method for forecasting weekly rainfall is evident in this study.     

BAF处理系统的BP神经网络模型

本文以某污水处理厂曝气生物滤池（Biologlcal aerated filter,BAF）的实际运行数据为基础,采用人工神经网络（Artificial neural network,ANN）方法,建立起BAF处理系统的BP神经网络预测模型。模型运算结果表明,预测值和实测值能较好地吻合,起到了模拟预测的效果,同时能优化运行状态。该模型的建立为BAF处理系统的预测及运行管理供了一条简便实用的途径,具有良好的研究和工程实用价值。     

Long‐Term High‐Resolution Radar Rainfall Fields for Urban Hydrology

Accurate records of high‐resolution rainfall fields are essential in urban hydrology, and are lacking in many areas. We develop a high‐resolution (15 min, 1 km²) radar rainfall data set for Charlotte, North Carolina during the 2001‐2010 period using the Hydro‐NEXRAD system with radar reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler weather radar located in Greer, South Carolina. A dense network of 71 rain gages is used for estimating and correcting radar rainfall biases. Radar rainfall estimates with daily mean field bias (MFB) correction accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall, but bias correction at finer timescales can improve cold‐season and tropical cyclone rainfall estimates. Approximately 25 rain gages are sufficient to estimate daily MFB over an area of at least 2,500 km², suggesting that robust bias correction is feasible in many urban areas. Conditional (rain‐rate dependent) bias can be removed, but at the expense of other performance criteria such as mean square error. Hydro‐NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates are also compared with the coarser resolution (hourly, 16 km²) Stage IV operational rainfall product. Stage IV is adequate for flood water balance studies but is insufficient for applications such as urban flood modeling, in which the temporal and spatial scales of relevant hydrologic processes are short. We recommend the increased use of high‐resolution radar rainfall fields in urban hydrology.     

塔里木油田克拉作业区利用人工湿地处理生活污水

利用土地处理系统进行油田生活污水的净化及应用技术,目前在国内尚未推广使用。结合塔里木油田克拉作业区的实际情况,从废水的资源化、生态建设意义和减缓风蚀等角度出发,阐明了人工湿地建设在干旱区的重要作用;从土壤和地下水环境质量及其变化趋势的角度,分析了利用人工湿地处理生活废水的可行性;并对其进行了相应的效益分析。经分析论证,人工湿地可以用于克拉作业区生活污水的深度处理,并在干旱荒漠区进行推广。     

AN ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A PROGRAM FOR ARTIFICIAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE1

This study describes and demonstrates two alternate methods for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of artificial groundwater recharge using percolation ponds. The first analysis considers the benefits to be the reduction of pumping lifts and land subsidence; the second considers benefits as the alternative costs of a comparable surface delivery system. Example computations are carried out for an existing artificial recharge program in Santa Clara Valley in California. A computer groundwater model is used to estimate both the average long term and the drought period effects of artificial recharge in the study area. For the example problem, the benefits of reduced average annual pumping lifts and reduced incremental subsidence are greater than the total costs of continuing the existing artificial recharge program. Benefits for reduced subsidence are strongly dependent on initial aquifer conditions. The second analysis compares the costs of continuing the artificial recharge program with the costs of a surface system which would achieve the same hydraulic effects. Results indicate that the costs of artificial recharge are considerably smaller than the alternative costs of an equivalent surface system. In evaluating a particular program, consideration should also be given to uncertainties in future supplies and demands for water as well as to the probability of extreme events such as droughts.