THE CHANCE A FLOOD WILL BE EXCEEDED IN A PERIOD OF YEARS1

ABSTRACT. Much has been written about the chance that a hydrologic event, such as a flood peak of a given size or greater, will occur during a given period of years. Four variables are involved, and any one of the four can be the dependent variable: (1) the probability of encountering such an event in a single year, (2) the probability of encountering one or several of these events in a period of years, (3) the least number of times of encountering the event in that period of years, and (4) the number of years in the period involved. Most of these problems are not difficult to solve, but they are tedious to calculate, not well understood, and consequently seldom used in water resources planning and development. The most popular approach is based on the binomial distribution. Graphical procedures similar to those developed by Riggs [1961] were further elaborated and are presented here with illustrative examples to facilitate their use in solving the many related problems. The confidence that one can place in these probability estimates is also explained and illustrated by tables and further examples. To help assure proper use of these methods, commonly used terms such as “recurrence interval” and “partial duration series” are discussed. No new theory is developed: at issue is a deeper understanding of the significance of design levels and their ease of computation.     

THE NATURE OF LONG RUN COST SAVINGS DUE TO WATER CONSERVATION1

Savings in capital, operation, and maintenance costs of new water supply facilities are referred to as “long run foregone costs.” Any conservation measure leads to reduction of water use or loss, however, significant long run foregone costs are realized only when reductions in size or delays in construction of facilities result. In order to accurately evaluate these costs it is necessary to know which facilities are affected and how they are affected (i.e., eliminated, downsized, or delayed). The effects of several levels of conservation on long run fore gone costs for an actual study are presented and some easy to use equations that may be used to calculate such savings are then derived. Some rules are presented to determine if it is more economical to delay construction or downsize facilities.     

RIPARIAN ZONE CLASSIFICATION FOR MANAGEMENT OF STREAM WATER QUALITY AND ECOSYSTEM HEALTH1

ABSTRACT: Riparian zones perform a variety of biophysical functions that can be managed to reduce the effects of land use on instream habitat and water quality. However, the functions and human uses of riparian zones vary with biophysical factors such as landform, vegetation, and position along the stream continuum. These variations mean that “one size fits all” approaches to riparian management can be ineffective for reducing land use impacts. Thus riparian management planning at the watershed scale requires a framework that can consider spatial differences in riparian functions and human uses We describe a pilot riparian zone classification developed to provide such a framework for riparian management in two diverse river systems in the Waikato region of New Zealand. Ten classes of riparian zones were identified that differed sufficiently in their biophysical features to require different management. Generic “first steps” and “best practical” riparian management recommendations and associated costs were developed for each riparian class. The classification aims to not only improve our understanding of the effectiveness of riparian zone management as a watershed management tool among water managers and land owners, but to also provide a basis for deciding on management actions.     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: A NECESSITY IN WATER PLANNING1

ABSTRACT In water planning activities, major emphasis has been placed on the development of procedures for devising “optimum plans.” These plans are defined as those which meet prespecified demands for water at “minimum cost.” However, all plans are developed subject to postulated conditions regarding the state of the physical system and of nature. Because planning takes place in a dynamic and uncertain environment in which postulated conditions are known to change, it is imperative that the planner be apprised in the planning phase of the effect of changes which can occur. Using “this information, a planner can temper his judgment with a knowledge of the effect of the uncertainty resulting from changes in the system state variables. This paper presents results of the use of a computer simulation and optimization model to quantify possible variations in system response which could occur as a result of uncertainty in the postulated physical and economic conditions under which the proposed water development system was to perform. The possible effects of these variable responses on planning decision-making is discussed.     

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO STORM WATER MANAGEMENT AND LAND DEVELOPMENT1

Low impact development (LID) and other land development methods have been presented as alternatives to conventional storm water management and site design. Low impact development encourages land preservation and use of distributed, infiltration‐based storm water management systems to minimize impacts on hydrology. Such systems can include shallow retention areas, akin to natural depression storage. Other approaches to land development may emphasize land preservation only. Herein, an analysis of four development alternatives is presented. The first was Traditional development with conventional pipe/pond storm water management and half‐acre lots. The second alternative was Cluster development, in which implementation of the local cluster development ordnance was assumed, resulting in quarter‐acre lots with a pipe/pond storm water management system and open space preservation. The “Partial” LID option used the same lot layout as the Traditional option, with a storm water management system emphasizing shallow depression storage. The “Full” LID used the Cluster site plan and the depression storage‐based storm water management system. The alternatives were compared to the hydrologic response of existing site conditions. The analysis used two design storms and a continuous rainfall record. The combination of land preservation and infiltration‐based storm water management yielded the hydrologic response closest to existing conditions, although ponds were required to control peak flows for the design storms.     

Effect of the Spatial Variability of Land Use,Soil Type,and Precipitation on Streamflows in Small Watersheds1

Abstract: The spatial variability of the data used in models includes the spatial discretization of the system into subsystems, the data resolution, and the spatial distribution of hydrologic features and parameters. In this study, we investigate the effect of the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation on the simulated flows at the outlet of “small watersheds” (i.e., watersheds with times of concentration shorter than the model computational time step). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used to estimate runoff and hydrographs. Different representations of the spatial data resulted in comparable model performances and even the use of uniform land use and soil type maps, instead of spatially distributed, was not noticeable. It was found that, although spatially distributed data help understand the characteristics of the watershed and provide valuable information to distributed hydrologic models, when the watershed is small, realistic representations of the spatial data do not necessarily improve the model performance. The results obtained from this study provide insights on the relevance of taking into account the spatial distribution of land use, soil type, and precipitation when modeling small watersheds.     

AN INTERACTIVE SIMULATION OF PUMPED STORAGE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A combination pumped storage reservoir system was simulated by modifying the WRE deep reservoir model. Each of the two reservoirs was described by a copy of the WRE model program, the two programs were converted into subroutines and were called upon alternately by a main program. Operationally, the contributing reservoir, i.e., the reservoir from which flow was discharged, was simulated for one execution interval (1 hour), followed by simulating the receiving reservoir for the same execution interval. The main program directed the discharge temperature of the contributing reservoir for each execution interval as input for simulating the receiving reservoir. The two subroutines were run in this interactive mode for a simulation period of one year. Two simulations, labeled “Pump” and “Net,” were effected and differed basically in the distribution of flow volumes exchanged between the reservoirs. In the ‘Pump’ simulation the total hourly flow volumes were distributed into appropriate horizontal layers of the lakes as determined by temperature-density relationships, i.e., the pumped discharges were distributed into the upper lake and the generation discharges were distributed into the lower lake. In the ‘Net’ simulation only the net daily discharges (daily difference between pump-back and generation at the upper dam), distributed uniformly over 24 hours, were mixed into the horizontal layers of the two lakes. Both simulations produced annual thermal regimes that were apparently within reason for the geographical area and the nature of the input data. However, neither accurately reflected a generalized conditions for the reservoirs because the Pump simulation reflected conditions in the forebay and tailrace of the Upper dam while the Net simulation reflected conditions of the remaining parts of the reservoirs.     

Benchmark Criteria: A Tool for Selecting Appropriate Models in the Field of Water Management

A milestone in the field of European water protection policy is the European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), which came into force in December 2000 and which integrates the management of European waters in many ways. In this study, we start by focusing on management issues connected to the implementation of the WFD and pose a question: “what type of models would be the most suitable for use in the context of the WFD?” With this question in mind, we aim to establish a set of operational and functional selection criteria for (computer) models whose application is intended to support decision-making related to a particular water management issue. These so-called “benchmark criteria” should help water managers and other model users in choosing appropriate models, e.g., for the WFD implementation purposes. We first describe models and their use in general and then propose an approach for setting the benchmark criteria for models, basing it on the concept of uncertainty management, while keeping firmly in mind the important role of citizens and citizen organizations in water management. The suggested benchmark criteria are in the form of 14 questions through which each model can be evaluated. Finally, the process for testing and refining the benchmark criteria is highlighted.     

SIMULATION/OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES FOR MULTI-BASIN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A set of simulation and optimization tools capable of analyzing the development and operation of a complex, multi-basin, interconnected water resource are explained. These models provide valuable information regarding the important questions: (1) “When should new projects be build?” (2) “How big should they be?” and (3) “How should the system be operated?” Since these tools were developed by and for practicing engineers, their applicability to real-world problems is mandatory. To assure this, testing was done on an actual proposed project, the Texas Water System.     

ASSESSING STREAM CHANNEL STABILITY THRESHOLDS USING FLOW COMPETENCE ESTIMATES AT BANKFULL STAGE1

ABSTRACT: Stream channel stability is affected by peak flows rather than average annual water yield. Timber harvesting and other land management activities that contribute to soil compaction, vegetation removal, or increased drainage density can increase peak discharges and decrease the recurrence interval of bankfull discharges. Increased peak discharges can cause more frequent movement of large streambed materials, leading to more rapid stream channel change or instability. This study proposes a relationship between increased discharge and channel stability, and presents a methodology that can be used to evaluate stream channel stability thresholds on a stream reach basis. Detailed surveys of the channel cross section, water surface slope, streambed particle size distribution, and field identification of bankfull stage are used to estimate existing bankfull flow conditions. These site specific stream channel characteristics are used in bed load movement formulae to predict critical flow conditions for entrainment of coarse bed material (D₈₄ size fraction). The “relative bed stability” index, defined as the ratio of critical flow condition to the existing condition at bankfull discharge, can predict whether increased peak discharges will exceed stream channel thresholds.     

Fishing Farmers or Farming Fishers? Fishing Typology of Inland Small-Scale Fishing Households and Fisheries Management in Singkarak Lake, West Sumatra, Indonesia

Technical and socio-economic characteristics are known to determine different types of fishers and their livelihood strategies. Faced with declining fish and water resources, small-scale fisheries engage into transformations in livelihood and fishing practices. The paper is an attempt to understand these changes and their socio-economic patterns, in the case of Singkarak Lake in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Based upon the hypothesis that riparian communities have diverse, complex yet structured and dynamic livelihood systems, the paper’s main objective is to study, document and model the actual diversity in livelihood, practices and performance of inland small-scale fisheries along the Singkarak Lake, to picture how households are adapted to the situation, and propose an updated, workable model (typology) of those for policy. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to develop a typology of fishing households. The results show that small-scale fishers can be classified into different types characterized by distinct livelihood strategies. Three household types are identified, namely “farming fishers” households (type I, 30 %), “fishing farmers” households (type II, 30 %), and “mainly fishers” households (type III, 40 %). There are significant differences among these groups in the number of boats owned, annual fishing income, agriculture income and farming experience. Type I consists of farming fishers, well equipped, with high fishing costs and income, yet with the lowest return on fishing assets. They are also landowners with farming income, showing the lowest return on land capital. Type II includes poor fishing farmers, landowners with higher farming income; they show the highest return on land asset. They have less fishing equipment, costs and income. Type III (mainly fishers) consists of poorer, younger fishers, with highest return on fishing assets and on fishing costs. They have little land, low farming income, and diversified livelihood sources. The nature of their livelihood strategies is discussed for each identified group. This helps to understand the complexity and diversity of small-scale fishers, particularly in the study area which is still poorly known. This paper concludes with policy implication and possible management initiatives for environmentally prudent policy aiming at improvement of fishers’ livelihood.     

DETERMINING CRITICAL WATER QUALITY CONDITIONS FOR INORGANIC NITROGEN IN DRY,SEMI‐URBANIZED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Traditional approaches to establishing critical water quality conditions, based on statistical analysis of low flow conditions and expressed as a recurrence interval for low flow conditions (e.g., 7Q10), may be inappropriate for drier watersheds. The use of 7Q10 as a standard design flow assumes year‐round flow, but in these watersheds, 7Q10 is zero or very small. In addition, the increasing use of multiple year dynamic water quality models at daily time steps can supercede the use of steady state approaches. Many of these watersheds are also under increasing urbanization pressure, which accentuates the flashiness of runoff and the episodic nature of critical water quality conditions. To illustrate, the conditions in the Santa Clara River, California, are considered. A statistical analysis indicates that higher inorganic nitrogen concentrations correlate strongly with low flow. However, peaks in concentrations can occur during the first storms, particularly where nonpoint source contribution is significant. Critical conditions can thus occur at different flow regimes depending on the relative magnitude of flow and pollutant contributions from various sources. The use of steady state models for these dry semi‐urbanized watersheds based on 7Q10 flows is thus unlikely to accurately simulate the potential for exceeding water quality objectives. Dynamic simulation of water quality is necessary, and as the recent intense storm event sampling data indicate, the models should be formulated to consider even smaller time steps. This places increasing demand on computational resources and datasets to accurately calibrate the models at this temporal resolution.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA–DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the “technology scenarios”; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the “policy scenarios”; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the “global scenarios”. Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.     

On the Role of Spatial,Temporal, and Climatic Forces on Stream Sediment Loading from Rural and Urban Ecosystems

In this study, we characterize the greatest sediment loading events by their sediment delivery behavior; dominant climate, watershed, and antecedent conditions; and their seasonal distribution for rural and urban land uses. The study area is Paradise Creek Watershed, a mixed land use watershed in northern Idaho dominated by saturation excess processes in the upstream rural area and infiltration excess in the downstream urban area. We analyzed 12 years of continuous streamflow, precipitation, and watershed data at two monitoring stations. We identified 137 sediment loading events in the upstream rural section of the watershed and 191 events in the downstream urban section. During the majority of these events conditions were transport limited and the sediment flush occurred early in the event, generally in the first 20% of elapsed event time. Statistical analysis including two dozen explanatory variables showed peak discharge, event duration, and antecedent baseflow explained most of the variation in event sediment load at both stations and for the watershed as a whole (R² = 0.73‐0.78). In the rural area, saturated soils combined with spring snowmelt in March led to the greatest loading events. The urban area load contribution peaked in January, which could be a re‐suspension of streambed sediments from the previous water year. Throughout the study period, one event contributed, on average, 33% of the annual sediment load but only accounted for 2% of the time in a year.     

Assessing societal costs associated with environmental impacts

A study of “harmless” odors was utilized as a platform for determining the cost impact of envi‐ronmental effects resulting from management decisions. The cost to society of “harmless” odors eventually leads to internal costs for companies emitting the odors. It is easier to determine societal costs for “harmless” odors than to estimate the internal costs that eventually accrue to a company. However, larger societal costs will lead to larger company costs; larger societal costs prob‐ably also lead to faster company internalization of costs.c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

RESOURCE DEMANDS FOR ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the development of a mathematical model for forecasting energy development in the Yellowstone study area for the years 1985 and 2000, and determining the associated economic demands for water, land, labor, capital, and mineral resources. The study was prepared for use by the Missouri River Basin Commission in conducting a comprehensive, “Level B” planning study of the water and related land resources in the Yellowstone River Basin. The study results indicate that the amount of coal development in the Yellowstone study area will depend primarily upon state and federal energy policies and regulations. Policies related to slurry pipeline transportation of coal will be particularly important in determining the level and pattern of future energy development in the area. Coal production under the “most probable” scenario is expected to increase from about 40 million tons in 1976 to 163 million tons per year by 1985, and 513 million tons in the year 2000. Consumptive water use for energy development in the study area could be as much as 556,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2000 (under the high scenario). A parametric analysis was conducted on the 1985 most probably scenario to determine the influence on the study results of variations in the delivered price of water. Water requirements were reduced by nearly one-fourth as water costs increased from zero to over $750 per acre-foot.     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

The Influence of Land Use Change on Landslide Susceptibility Zonation: The Briga Catchment Test Site (Messina,Italy)

The spatial distribution of landslides is influenced by different climatic conditions and environmental settings including topography, morphology, hydrology, lithology, and land use. In this work, we have attempted to evaluate the influence of land use change on landslide susceptibility (LS) for a small study area located in the southern part of the Briga catchment, along the Ionian coast of Sicily (Italy). On October 1, 2009, the area was hit by an intense rainfall event that triggered abundant slope failures and resulted in widespread erosion. After the storm, an inventory map showing the distribution of pre-event and event landslides was prepared for the area. Moreover, two different land use maps were developed: the first was obtained through a semi-automatic classification of digitized aerial photographs acquired in 1954, the second through the combination of supervised classifications of two recent QuickBird images. Exploiting the two land use maps and different land use scenarios, LS zonations were prepared through multivariate statistical analyses. Differences in the susceptibility models were analyzed and quantified to evaluate the effects of land use change on the susceptibility zonation. Susceptibility maps show an increase in the areal percentage and number of slope units classified as unstable related to the increase in bare soils to the detriment of forested areas.