RESERVOIR RELEASES TO USES WITH DIFFERENT RELIABILITY REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: Releases from a reservoir may be allocated to a number of uses, each of which may require a given volume of water at a different reliability. The paper provides a method that can be used to estimate the volume of water associated with a given reliability for each use of water when the proportion of releases allocated to each use is known. These results can be used to evaluate the meeting of specified objectives under a published release policy derived by stationary stochastic dynamic programming. The results can also be used to solve water allocation problems when the probability distribution of available water is known (or can be estimated) and water has multiple uses, each of which has different volume and reliability requirements.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN WATER YIELD AND RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: The dam impounding White Rock Lake was completed in 1910 to provide water for the City of Dallas. Since then, land use on the watershed has changed from entirely rural to over 77 percent urban. A model called SWRRB (Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins) was utilized to determine the effect of urbanization on water and sediment entering the lake. The simulation results show that, if urbanization had not occurred, then the annual surface runoff would be 135 mm rather than 151 mm and the annual sediment yield would be 4.4 t/ha rather than 4.1 t/ha. Also, the effect of urbanization on delivery ratios was shown and a positive linear correlation was found. Finally, the weather generator in SWRRB was utilized to estimate the loss of reservoir capacity until 2050 for three different land use management scenarios.     

OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT AND DESIGN OF HYDRAULIC SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A possible methodology is developed to deal with the problem of designing complex pipeline systems, when they are subject to different rates of demand, and when a hypothesis of the flow distribution in different branches is not allowed. The mathematical algorithm used in linear programming. The problem, which is not linear, is dealt with by means of an iterative method; that is, by starting with a possible solution and inserting at each iteration the solution found in the preceding iteration. By taking as variables of the problem the piezometric heads of the ends for each branch of the network, the piezometric gradients and flows, and by thus considering the diameter as a derived variable, it is possible to isolate the nonlinearity in the cost function of the network. The latter is linearized each time close to the solution found in the preceding iteration.     

A COMPARISON OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY-YIELD ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of four streamflow generation schemes for the use in the estimation of the required conservation storage for a single reservoir is presented. The comparison of the generating schemes should aid in the selection of an appropriate model type for the reservoir sizing problem. The streamflow generation models are compared using two criteria. The first comparison is between the statistics of the generated streamflow sequences and the corresponding statistics from the historical record. The second evaluation compares the median reservoir size determined by each model with the required storage based on the historical flow sequence. The results of a comparative analysis for monthly streamflow data for the Rzav River in Yugoslavia are presented and discussed. The results indicate that both evaluation criteria are required to discriminate between the various options.     

RISK IN IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY AND THE EFFECTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies.     

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF RESERVOIR RELEASES TO MINIMIZE SEDIMENTATION IN RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: An optimal control methodology and computational model are developed to evaluate multi‐reservoir release schedules that minimize sediment scour and deposition in rivers and reservoirs. The sedimentation problem is formulated within a discrete‐time optimal control framework in which reservoir releases represent control variables and reservoir bed elevations, storage levels, and river bed elevations represent state variables. Constraints imposed on reservoir storage levels and releases are accommodated using a penalty function method. The optimal control model consists of two interfaced components: a one‐dimensional finite‐difference simulation module used to evaluate flow hydraulics and sediment transport dynamics, and a successive approximation linear quadratic regulator (SALQR) optimization algorithm used to update reservoir release policies and solve the augmented control problem. Hypothetical two‐reservoir and five‐reservoir networks are used to demonstrate the methodology and its capabilities, which is a vital phase towards the development of a more robust optimal control model and application to an existing multiple‐reservoir river network.     

OPTIMAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND CROP PLANNING UNDER DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC INFLOWS1

ABSTRACT: This study analyzes planning under deterministic and stochastic inflows for the Mayurakshi project in India. Models are developed to indicate the optimal storage of reservoir water, the transfer of water to the producing regions, and the spillage of water from the reservoir, if needed. A deterministic programming model was first formulated to represent the existing situation. A chance-constrained model then was constructed to evaluate potential violations of the deterministic model. Both models were quantified for the command area. Data were collected from surveys of the area and from government agencies. Both the deterministic and change-constrained models suggest a more intensive cropping program in the region. Both emphasize more dependence on rabi and less on kharif crops. The chance-constrained especially suggests use of more water in the rabi season. Important chances in cropping programs and labor use take place under the chance-constrained model.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN1

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.     

RELIABILITY OF THE DESIGN STORM CONCEPT IN EVALUATING RUNOFF PEAK FLOW1

A comparative study was undertaken to evaluate peak runoff flow rates using (1) a continuous series of actual rainfall events and (2) design storms. The ILLUDAS computer model was used to simulate runoff over a catchment within the city of Montreal, Canada. A ten-year period, five-minute increment rainfall data base was used to derive peak flow frequency curves. Two types of design storms were analyzed: one derived from intensity duration frequency curves (Chicago type), the other from averaging actual rainfall patterns (Huff type). Antecedent soil moisture conditions were considered in the analyses. It was found that the probability distribution of runoff peak flow was sensitive to the choice of design storm pattern and to the antecedent soil moisture condition. A symmetrical, Chicago-type design storm with antecedent dry soil moisture produced a flow frequency curve similar to the one obtained from a series of historical rainfall events.     

THE INFLUENCE OF ENGINEERING DESIGN AND OPERATION AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON RESERVOIR FISHERY RESOURCES1

The apparent effect of selected reservoir environmental variables-including surface area, mean depth, outlet depth, thermocline depth, water level fluctuation, storage ratio, shore development, total dissolved solids, growing season and age of reservoir–on fish standing crop in 140 large impoundments has been explored through partial correlation and multiple regression analyses. The sample was partitioned into 25 subsamples based on reservoir use type, water exchange rate, thermocline formation and water chemistry. Fish standing crops were estimated by summer rotenone sampling of coves or open water areas enclosed by blockoff net. Logarithmic partial correlation revealed highly significant (0.01 confidence shore development and dissolved solids on At the 0.20 confidence level, the crop of storage ratio and shore level) positive effects of outlet depth, total standing crop in the entire sample. all sport fishes is positively influenced by outlet depth, development and negatively by mean depth. In 54 hydropower reservoirs with a stable thermocline, positive effects of increased storage ratio and dissolved solids on t o t a l crop are evident at the 0.05 confidence interva. Increase in thermocline depth has a negative effect. In 25 hydropower reservoirs without a stable thermocline, clupeid (shad) crop is negatively correlated with surface area, mean depth and fluctuation. Reservoirs with a thermocline have higher standing crops than those without. At the species or species group level, partial correlation of nine environmental variables a t the 0.05 confidence interval reveals: Positive effect of surface area on pike and pickerel; buffalo-fishes, white crappie and total sport fish crop; positive effect of outlet depth on largemouth bass, catfishes, total sport fish crop and buffalofishes; a negative effect of water level fluctuation on pike and pickerel, redear sunfish and gizzard shad; a positive relationship between storage ratio and channel catfish and bull- heads and a negative one with flathead catfish and suckers; a positive effect of total dissolved solids on black and whit basses, catfishes, gizzard shad, carpsuckers and carp. A morphoedaphic expression, total dissolved solids divided by mean depth, provides a useful index t o reservoir fish production. The relationship is curvilinear, with maximum crops expected at index values of 5 t o 30.The index accounts for 62 percent of the variability in hydropower storage reservoir crops. Several multivariable regressions have been derived f o r predictive purposes. Examples are included, with R values of 35 t o 60.     

THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATION ON CRITERION LOW STREAMFLOWS USED FOR DETERMINING TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOADS1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses the possible impacts of global climate change on low streamflows in the Midwest, both directly, through lower precipitation, and indirectly, by rendering irrigation profitable in areas where it has found little application in the past. In the analysis presented here, streamflow data are altered to represent the effect of climate change and stream-supplied irrigation, and then used to estimate new values for two low-flow criteria, the one- and seven-day-ten-year low flows (₇Q₁₀ and ₁Q₁₀) under 20 climate change and irrigation scenarios. Additionally, the frequencies of violation of these two criteria, and multiple violations in a three-year period, are determined. Results show that the potential impact of the assumed climate change scenarios on low flow standards is substantial. A 25 percent decrease in mean precipitation results in a 63 percent reduction in design flow, even in the absence of irrigation. With irrigation, the reduction can be as much as 100 percent. The frequency of single violations of low flow criteria is found to increase several fold with irrigation. The frequency of multiple violations of low flow criteria in a three-year period is sensitive to climate change, increasing from around 20 percent to nearly 100 percent as the climate change becomes more severe.     

OPTIMAL OPERATION OF SHELBYVILLE AND CARLYLE LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Dams were built by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers on the Kaskaskia River at Shelbyville and Carlyle in Illinois, in 1969 and 1967, respectively. The operation of the Shelbyville and Carlyle Lakes has changed over the years because of considerably lower bankfull channel capacities downstream of the dams than were adopted in the project designs. This study was conducted to review the present operation policy. Intent was to derive a policy for maximizing the overall benefits (or minimizing the overall damages) and to compare these benefits or damages with those with the present policy. The operating rules were optimized through a simulation model which was structured considering the physical nature of the system and the desirable operation in the best interest of various beneficial uses. The expected annual value of overall benefits from recreation and agriculture is shown to increase by $0.2 million with the optimal policy. With the optimal operation, the overall damages are reduced by 76 percent on the average over the 24 years of flow record at Shelbyville and Carlyle.     

COMPARISON OF RESERVOIR LINEAR OPERATION RULES USING LINEAR AND DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical optimization techniques are used to study the operation and design of a single, multi-purpose reservoir system. Optimal monthly release policies are derived for Hoover Reservoir, located in Central Ohio, using chance-constrained linear programming and dynamic programming-regression methodologies. Important characteristics of the former approach are derived, discussed, and graphically illustrated using Hoover Reservoir as a case example. Simulation procedures are used to examine and compare the overall performance of the optimal monthly reservoir release policies derived under the two approaches. Results indicate that, for the mean detention time and the corresponding safe yield target water supply release under existing design of Hoover Reservoir, the dynamic programming policies produce lower average annual losses (as defined by a two-sided quadratic loss function) while achieving at least as high reliability levels when compared to policies derived under the chance-constrained linear programming method. In making this comparison, the reservoir release policies, although not identical, are assumed to be linear. This restricted form of the release policy is necessary to make the chance-constrained programming method mathematically tractable.     

THE IMPACT OF HIGH INTEREST RATES ON OPTIMUM MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DESIGN OF SURFACE RUNOFF URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT. This research examines the impact of high rates of interest upon the least cost system design for urban drainage systems when water quality is a critical parameter. Results of examination of twelve alternative system designs in a case study watershed indicate the least cost study design is highly sensitive to the rate of interest, but not sensitive to the water quality parameters. When the high rates of interest currently prevalent are introduced into the model those systems which contain open channel collection components are selected as the least cost system. At low rates of interest pipeline collection components are selected as the least cost system. Holding pond components of system design are cost effective at several levels of water quality. They are neutral to the rate of interest so they are incorporated in least cost systems at all the levels of interest rates. The results of the study indicate that at the current high rates of interest open channel collection systems and holding ponds are cost effective system components to achieve selected levels of water quality in urban drainage system design.     

SIMULATED EFFECTS OF ALTERED SPILLWAY RELEASES ON THERMAL STRUCTURE AND KOKANEE GROWTH IN A COLORADO RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: In‐reservoir thermal and ecological effects of releasing some flows over the surface spillway at Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado, rather than routing all releases through the hypolimnetic outlet were evaluated using a calibrated and validated one‐dimensional thermal model (CE‐THERM) with a set of ecological models. Thermal model output indicated that surface water temperatures were influenced primarily by atmospheric conditions, but the release of warmer water over the spillway resulted in a thinner epilimnion and cooler metalimnetic water temperatures. Ecological model predictions indicated that spillway releases and associated temperatures resulted in lower growth rates for young‐of‐year (YOY) kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the reservoir by up to 9 percent when compared with growth rates under baseline operations with no releases over the spillway. Kokanee growth rates were reduced under spillway release scenarios because lower temperatures not only affected metabolic rates, but limited the productivity of the zooplankton as well. Thus, altering the release regime with spillway discharges could have deleterious effects on Blue Mesa's YOY kokanee. However, in other reservoirs, distributing discharges among different elevations may provide managers with a mechanism to regulate temperatures to benefit species of concern that are facing challenges imposed by environmental conditions such as global warming.     

PHYSICAL HYDROLOGY AND THE EFFECTS OF FOREST HARVESTING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: A REVIEW1

The Pacific Northwest encompasses a range of hydrologic regimes that can be broadly characterized as either coastal (where rain and rain on snow are dominant) or interior (where snowmelt is dominant). Forest harvesting generally increases the fraction of precipitation that is available to become streamflow, increases rates of snowmelt, and modifies the runoff pathways by which water flows to the stream channel. Harvesting may potentially decrease the magnitude of hyporheic exchange flow through increases in fine sediment and clogging of bed materials and through changes in channel morphology, although the ecological consequences of these changes are unclear. In small headwater catchments, forest harvesting generally increases annual runoff and peak flows and reduces the severity of low flows, but exceptions have been observed for each effect. Low flows appear to be more sensitive to transpiration from vegetation in the riparian zone than in the rest of the catchment. Although it appears that harvesting increased only the more frequent, geomorphically benign peak flows in several studies, in others the treatment effect increased with return period. Recovery to pre‐harvest conditions appeared to occur within about 10 to 20 years in some coastal catchments but may take many decades in mountainous, snow dominated catchments.     

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT RULES DERWED WITH THE AID OF MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: The determination of optimum reservoir operating rules for reservoirs with multiple conflicting objectives is still a difficult task - despite many publications in this field. In this paper a three-step Multi Objective Decision Making (MODM) method is presented, the emphasis of which is placed on the necessity to make the work easy for the decision maker, which many MODM techniques fail to achieve. The method is applied to the development of a compromise optimum operating rule for a multi-purpose reservoir. In the first step of the method stochastic DP is chosen which is combined with the “weighting method” allowing combination of various objectives into one objective function. By systematically varying the weights for the objectives a large number of pareto optimum reservoir operating rules is generated. In the second step of the method the performance of all these operating rules is tested with the aid of a model simulating reservoir operation. The results are statistically analyzed and the reliabilities for attaining the various objectives are computed. The third step of the model applies another MODM technique which allows the decision maker - in a computer dialog - to select his optimum reservoir operating rule from the large number of pareto optimum solutions generated in step 1. Here he can specify his preferences for the various objectives. For this purpose two alternative MODM techniques are offered: Compromise Programming and the SEMOPS method. Their performance is shown along with the generation and selection of operating rules for the multi-objective Wupper reservoir system in Germany.     

THE EFFECTS OF AGE AND WATER FLUCTUATIONS ON FISH POPULATIONS1

ABSTRACT Two lakes having similar soil types were studied to determine the effects of age and water fluctuations on plankton, benthos and fish populations. Bluff Lake is an older man-made lake which is drawn down in the mid-summer. Oktibbeha County Lake is a young lake and the water levels are maintained. Chemistry data from the two lakes indicate that their chemical properties are very similar. Neither lake would be considered very fertile. Net plankton populations in Bluff Lake and Oktibbeha County Lake were comparable when analyzed on a number of organisms per liter basis. Fluctuations of water levels did not seem to have an effect on the net plankton populations. The benthic population in Bluff Lake is slightly higher than that found in Oktibbeha County Lake. This is true for both numbers and weight per square meter. The species composition of benthic organisms in the two lakes were similar. Based on one-acre samples from each lake, Bluff Lake has a more balanced fish population than does Oktibbeha County Lake. Neither, however, seems to support populations of game fish in which a high percentage of these are in the available or harvestable range. Both lakes contain high populations of gizzard shad.