CONTEMPORANEOUS AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (CARMA) MODELING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The Contemporaneous Autoregressive-Moving Average (CARMA) model is a simple and efficient model that can be used to fit many multivariate hydrological time series. For certain types of multistation river flow systems, the CARMA model is naturally obtained when the physical restrictions of the system or the characteristics of the data are taken in consideration during the formulation of the model. It is shown how the CARMA model can optimally be used to handle multiple time series where the number of observations in each series may be different. Adequate model building techniques, as well as computational and statistical efficient algorithms to estimate the parameters of the model, are given. The methodologies and applications of the CARMA model are illustrated with three examples. It is also shown how the full multivariate ARMA model may lead to losses in efficient of the estimators when the CARMA model is adequate.     

WATER QUALITY MODELING BY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The applicability of the Monte Carlo simulation technique to water quality modeling is demonstrated with the aid of a simple Streeter-Phelps model. The model accounts for the stochasticity of the input parameters. Triangular probability density functions are shown to be useful in case insufficient information is available to define meaningful frequency distributions of input parameters. The model output is presented as probability distributions of stream quality parameters.     

Improved Weather Generator Algorithm for Multisite Simulation of Precipitation and Temperature

The KnnCAD Version 4 weather generator algorithm for nonparametric, multisite simulations of temperature and precipitation data is presented. The K‐nearest neighbor weather generator essentially reshuffles the historical data, with replacement. In KnnCAD Version 4, a block resampling scheme is introduced to preserve the temporal correlation structure in temperature data. Perturbation of the reshuffled variable data is also added to enhance the generation of extreme values. The Upper Thames River Basin in Ontario, Canada is used as a case study and the model is shown to simulate effectively the historical characteristics at the site. The KnnCAD Version 4 approach is shown to improve on the previous versions of the model and offers a major advantage over many parametric and semiparametric weather generators in that multisite use can be easily achieved without making statistical assumptions dealing with the spatial correlations and probability distributions of each variable.     

MODELING HYDROLOGIC TIME SERIES FROM THE ARCTIC1

The general intervention model is applied to hydrologic and meteorologjc time series from the Canadian Arctic. The authors show how the model is able to account for environmental interventions, missing observations in the data, changes in data collection procedures, the effects of external inputs, as well as seasonality and autocorrelation. Methods for identifying transfer functions by making use of a physical understanding of the processes involved are demonstrated and sample applications of the general intervention model to Arctic data are shown.     

SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF USING ARMAX MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters.     

The separation of reinforced cementitious composites with a stream-line cutting tool

The paper provides a model for the cutting of reinforced concrete members with stream-line cutting tools. The model is an extended version of the energy model originally developed by Momber and Kovacevic (1995) for hydro-abrasive machining. The model allows the stepwise calculation of the energy absorbed during the cutting of the two parts of the compound - steel bar and matrix material. Hydro-abrasive cutting tests on different cementitious composites are performed in order to verify the numerical results. It is shown that the cutting process can be subdivided into four cutting stages whose locations depended on the energy locally available at the erosion site.     

SEQUENTIAL GENERATION OF STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: An auto-regressive model has been developed for hydrologic data simulation. The model is computationally easier, parsimonious in number of model parameters and more stable in statistical characteristics than the existing auto-regressive model. The proposed model was used for synthesizing 10 sequences, each of 100 year length, of monthly flows for the river Beas. The statistical parameters were calculated using 49-year historical record for the river. The data was also synthesized using existing auot-regressive model. The synthesized sequences have been compared. The results indicate that the proposed model is as good as the existing auto-regressive model in preserving the mean and standard deviation of historical record. It is further shown that the proposed model requires less parameters than the auto-regressive model for simulation of long-term dependence.     

An innovative modeling approach using Qual2K and HEC-RAS integration to assess the impact of tidal effect on River Water quality simulation

Water quality modeling has been shown to be a useful tool in strategic water quality management. The present study combines the Qual2K model with the HEC-RAS model to assess the water quality of a tidal river in northern Taiwan. The contaminant loadings of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment oxygen demand (SOD) are utilized in the Qual2K simulation. The HEC-RAS model is used to: (i) estimate the hydraulic constants for atmospheric re-aeration constant calculation; and (ii) calculate the water level profile variation to account for concentration changes as a result of tidal effect. The results show that HEC-RAS-assisted Qual2K simulations taking tidal effect into consideration produce water quality indices that, in general, agree with the monitoring data of the river. Comparisons of simulations with different combinations of contaminant loadings demonstrate that BOD is the most import contaminant. Streeter-Phelps simulation (in combination with HEC-RAS) is also performed for comparison, and the results show excellent agreement with the observed data. This paper is the first report of the innovative use of a combination of the HEC-RAS model and the Qual2K model (or Streeter-Phelps equation) to simulate water quality in a tidal river. The combination is shown to provide an alternative for water quality simulation of a tidal river when available dynamic-monitoring data are insufficient to assess the tidal effect of the river.     

Allocation of Streamflow Depletion Impacts under Nonlinear Conditions

A method is proposed for the equitable allocation of impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow. The method is intended for cases in which the pumping activity of multiple entities has impacts on streamflow and these impacts are computed by perturbation. It is shown that when the response of streamflow to pumping is nonlinear, simple methods for impact calculation can fail. The proposed method is developed for the case when there are four entities that impact streamflow. The method relies on the calculation of impacts by perturbation of the simulation model from different base pumping levels. When four entities are evaluated, 16 runs of the simulation model are required. It is shown the proposed method produces estimated impacts for each individual entity that are equitable because they meet the requirement that the impacts of each entity sum to the total impacts of all entities acting together and the impacts attributed to each entity do not depend on the order of calculation. A brief example demonstrates the approach.     

ANALYSIS OF DETENTION BASIN SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A runoff routing model, originally developed for rural, areas and later adapted for application in urban areas, is shown to be, very suitable for use in design detention basin systems. The model, computes design inflow hydrographs for basins and routes flow through, basins to the next downstream point of interest. Some general conclusions are drawn on the effects of different basin configurations.     

Threshold estimation from the linear dose-response model: Method and radiation data

The linear dose-response model is considered a conservative, nonthreshold relationship. This is based on a confusion between the sufficient condition (that is, zero slope at zero dose) and the necessary condition (that is, response distinguishable from zero). Once the threshold is properly defined, it is shown that the linear model predicts thresholds for radiation data in good agreement with experimental results.     

A MULTI-TIER APPROACH FOR AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED MANAGEMENT1

A multi-tier approach for agricultural watershed management has been proposed. The approach involves identification of a watershed management issue/problem, selection or development of simple conceptual model suitable for the exploration of the issue/problem identified and appropriate to the database available, and application of the model the address the identified issue/problem. The procedure is repeated by increasing the complexity in the conceptual model until the identified issue/problem has been addressed satisfactorily. An application of the procedure to an example watershed in southern Ontario conditions is shown. The application example has revealed that for identification of temporal pattern of runoff and sediment loads a simple conceptual model is adequate. For identification of spatial location of the sediment source areas and for the development of a monitoring program for the evaluation of remedial strategies a more complex distributed agricultural watershed model is necessary.     

IMPACTS OF WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT ON SITE VISITATION: A PROBABILISTIC MODELING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: The influence of perceptions of water quality on the likelihood of recreating at a particular recreation site is investigated using a logit model. The model is estimated for St. Albans Bay, Vermont. A hypothetical improvement in water quality was shown to greatly increase the probability of at least one visit to the bay during a season. This implies that many recreationists who do not use the bay at present will do so if water quality improves. A demand model for predicting site visitation must, therefore, include current nonusers in the sample. Failure to do so would result in misleading predictions about future demand for the bay.     

VALUING IRRIGATION WATER: A SIMULATION/MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A two-stage simulation/mathematical programming model was developed to derive irrigation water values that reflect efficient response to reduced water supplies. The failure of many previous water valuation studies to represent the dynamic dimension of irrigation was shown to result in overestimation of derived water values. Water values are also shown to be dramatically influenced by both application system characteristics, as well as the relative costs of irrigation inputs. Finally, the marginal value of irrigation water was shown to vary considerably over the irrigation season, reaching its maximum when atmospheric demand is highest and crops are most susceptible to water stress. Results presented should be of interest to policymakers investigating the viability of alternative water reallocation mechanisms.     

KALMAN FILTER ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION OF DAILY STREAM FLOWS: II. APPLICATION TO THE POTOMAC RIVER1

Results are reported from an application of the state space formulation and the Kalman filter to real-time forecasting of daily river flows. It is shown that the application of filtering techniques improves the overall forecasting performance of the model. As is true for most hydrologic systems, the model is not completely known. Therefore, the procedures pertaining to on-line parameter and noise statistics estimation, as presented in the first paper, are implemented. The example in this paper shows that these techniques also perform satisfactorily when applied to a real-world situation.     

Federal project evaluation and intangible resources : The Tellico Dam

A model of resource evaluation incorporating reversibility of actions and substitutability for resource services is presented, along with associated decision criteria. The model extends and generalizes the Krutilla—Fisher procedure for evaluating unique resources. The more general technique is used to assess the official analysis of the Tellico Dam project in eastern Tennessee. In terms of measured values, the preservation option is shown to be superior to development only under extreme assumptions. The existence of substantial unmeasured preservation values in the Tellico case strengthens the environmentalist position, however, particularly since net benefits of development are apparently negative.     

The effect of recycling price uncertainty on municipal waste management choices

This paper analyzes the effect of price uncertainty and irreversible investment on the decision of municipalities to switch from landfill waste disposal to recycling by developing a model to predict recycling adoption behavior and applying it to empirical data. It is shown that uncertainty regarding the price of recycled materials may induce a risk neutral municipality to prefer landfill disposal, even when recycling is less expensive. A model is developed to describe the switching process and estimate its parameters using empirical data from 79 municipalities in Israel. The model is then used to predict municipalities' recycling adoption decisions under various assumptions regarding price uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis that price uncertainty is a major obstacle for recycling. Finally, several options for price stabilization are sketched and it is argued that these policies may be effective in establishing viable recycling markets.     

INTERDISCIPLINARY MODELING IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SALINITY PROBLEMS OF THE SAFFORD VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality change of +0.13 millimhos electrical conductivity was documented between 1940 and 1 972 in the Safford Valley. The change is attributable to four principal mechanisms: pumping-encouraged saline artesian aquifer leakage, natural recharge of the water table aquifer by saline waters, leaching of agricultural waters into the aquifer and the lateral flow of groundwater through saline lacustrine beds. A hydrologic study of the area has shown the first of these mechanisms to be predominant. Salinity modeling has shown three regions of salinity change, and salinity increase projections for each are determined. An economic analysis and an economic model are then combined with the physical model, yielding information as to when certain economic conditions are reached with respect to the salinity increase. This combined model shows that, based on projected salinity trends, cotton, the principal agricultural crop of the valley, will remain economical to cultivate for a significant time beyond the model's limit of prediction. Alfalfa, on the other hand, should go out of production in large areas of the valley by 1990, and not be under economical cultivation by 2040. A sociologic model, based on the cluster analysis of questionnaire data, shows an awareness of the salinity problems of the area but little concern over them. Interdisciplinary model based salinity control regulations are made.     

Mapping probability of fire occurrence in San Jacinto Mountains,California, USA

An ecological data base for the San Jacinto Mountains, California, USA, was used to construct a probability model of wildland fire occurrence. The model incorporates both environmental and human factors, including vegetation, temperature, precipitation, human structures, and transportation. Spatial autocorrelation was examined for both fire activity and vegetation to determine the specification of neighborhood effects in the model. Parameters were estimated using stepwise logistic regressions. Among the explanatory variables, the variable that represents the neighborhood effects of spatial processes is shown to be of great importance in the distribution of wildland fires. An important implication of this result is that the management of wildland fires must take into consideration neighborhood effects in addition to environmental and human factors. The distribution of fire occurrence probability is more accurately mapped when the model incorporates the spatial term of neighborhood effects. The map of fire occurrence probability is useful for designing large-scale management strategies of wildfire prevention.     

An inexact optimization approach for river water-quality management

A previously developed fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM) for a river system is extended to address uncertainty involved in fixing the membership functions for the fuzzy goals of the pollution control agency (PCA) and the dischargers using the concept of grey systems. The model provides flexibility for the PCA and the dischargers to specify their goals independently, as the parameters for membership functions are considered as interval grey numbers instead of deterministic real numbers. An inexact or a grey fuzzy optimization model is developed in a multiobjective framework, to maximize the width of the interval valued fractional removal levels for providing latitude in decision-making and to minimize the width of the goal fulfillment level for reducing the system uncertainty. The concept of an acceptability index for order relation between two partially or fully overlapping intervals is used to get a deterministic equivalent of the grey fuzzy optimization model developed. The improvement of the optimal solutions over a previously developed grey fuzzy waste load allocation model (GFWLAM) is shown through an application to a hypothetical river system. The fuzzy multiobjective optimization and fuzzy goal programming techniques are used to solve the deterministic equivalent of the GFWLAM.