TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.     

PERCEIVED WATER QUALITY AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL HOMES1

ABSTRACT: The impact of degraded water quality on the value of seasonal homes adjacent to St. Albans Bay on Lake Champaign in northern Vermont is estimated using hedonic price functions. The Value of properties located adjacent to the bay are depressed by about 20 percent, or $4,500 on average, compared with similar nearby properties on the larger but cleaner lake. Water quality degradation resulted in decressed property values of approximately two million dollars in the area surrounding the Bay.     

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY OF POTENTIAL WATER SUPPLY SOURCES IN THE SANGAMON RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The analysis of stream flow and several water quality parameters in six Illinois rivers showed both deterioration and improvement in quality indicators during 1976–1977 drought. The adverse impacts were an increase of ammonia and manganese concentrations and, to a lesser degree, increased concentrations of phenol and specific conductance. At the worst point during the drought, the 12-month moving average of monthly ammonia concentration in the Sangamon River was about 620 percent higher than the antecedent value. On the other hand, average concentrations of nitrites and nitrates, total iron, and the number of coliform bacteria significantly decreased. This positive response suggests that streams which are considered unsuitable for municipal supply due to high levels of these quality indicators may be used as emergency sources during droughts.     

NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT OF URBAN RUNOFF IMPACT ON RECEIVING WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban stormwater runoff has been recognized as a potential major contributor of pollution to receiving waters. However the projected high costs of control have prompted an examination of the extent to which these impacts have been documented. A nationwide search was conducted for case studies demonstrating a cause-effect linkage between urban runoff and impairment of beneficial uses in receiving waters. The results indicate that numerous definitions of “impacts” are being used and that few substantive data exist to support many of these allegations. Results of a preliminary impact assessment are presented for the 248 urbanized areas of the United States. Then, the results of more recent efforts to assess these impacts in several case studies are described. This assessment demonstrates the critical need for additional short-term and long-term sampling programs.     

IMPACTS OF SILVICULTURE ON FLATWOODS RUNOFF,WATER QUALITY,AND NUTRIENT BUDGETS1

ABSTRACT: Three forest watersheds were isolated by roads in poorly drained flatwoods of Florida. After 12 months of baseline calibration the forest in one watershed was harvested and regenerated with minimum disturbance, in the second watershed with maximum disturbance from common practices, and in the third watershed left intact as a control. Water yields from the maximum treatments increased a significant 250 percent while that from the minimum treatments increased 117 percent as compared to the control. Weed vegetation remaining after the minimum treatment continued significant water use. The water yield increases lasted only for one year. Water quality was reduced by both treatments with the most effect immediately after the maximum disturbance. Absolute levels of suspended sediments, potassium, and calcium remained relatively low. The maximum treatment caused significant changes in net cation balances only for one year. The information shows relative little effect of silvicultural practices in flatwoods on water quality as compared to data from upland forests. Water yield increases may be manipulated by the degree of harvest and weed control practices.     

A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR SMALL LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Phosphorus loading tolerances of small lakes are analyzed by means of a statistical model of lake eutrophication based upon the work of Vollenweider and Dillon. Using a sample of 195 midwestern and eastern U. S. lakes, it was found that Vollenweider and Dillon's method of predicting the trophic status of relatively deep, slow-flushing lakes can be applied to shallower lakes with much shorter retention times. The statistical model used to replicate the results of Vollenweider and Dillon is stated in detail, for convenience of application to small lake water quality management problems. The model extends the Vollenweider and Dillon results by associating each alternative phosphorous loading with a probability that a given lake can achieve or maintain noneutrophis status. It is applicable to lakes for which only minimal data are available. The major policy conclusion is that the highly variable tolerance for phosphorus loading must be considered in legislating efficient effluent limitations. The paper concludes with a comparison to a recent contribution employing a similar approach.     

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY IN A NEW JERSEY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT. New Jersey, together with other states in the northeast, was stricken with drought during 1961-66. The effect of this drought was most severe in the northern part of the State. The water quality of the Passaic River, which drains the urban, industrialized northeast, perhaps deteriorated the most among the major drainage systems. This river system is used as a raw-water source by 10 water suppliers. The impact of the drought upon the water supply of the Passaic Valley Water Commission, the most downstream of the basin's suppliers, which supplies an average of about 90 million gallons a day to more than 650,000 persons, is evaluated herein. The drought's impact on the raw-water quality is appraised by the comparison of before-and-after qualities of dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, biochemical-oxygen demand, turbidity, and hardness. For example, at the worst point during the drought, monthly average dissolved-solids content in the raw water were about 210 percent, hardness, about 167 percent, and biochemical-oxygen demand about 270 percent higher than antecedent values. In general, the study concludes that the drought produced a deterioration in both raw and finished water quality, and is estimated to have increased chemical-treatment costs during the drought by about $650,000.     

IN-LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR A RECREATIONAL LAKE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS1

Johnson Sauk Trail Lake remains highly eutrophic, even though the watershed has long been returned to an undisturbed condition with permanent vegetative cover and with little or no land disturbance in the watershed. Internal regeneration of nutrients has been identified as the major source of nutrients to the lake. Lake destratification, selective harvesting and removal of weeds, and control of algal blooms using chelated copper sulfate application followed by potassium permanganate application have all been chosen as management techniques for improving water quality conditions in the lake. These in-lake techniques are considered not as palliative measures, but as necessary tools in enhancing the lake's water quality characteristics.     

EUTROPHICATION MEASURES FOR SMALL LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Continuous measures of water quality responsiveness to changes in nutrient loadings are developed for use by environmental regulators attempting to achieve the greatest degree of water quality improvement consistent with competing uses of scarce resources. Recent contributions to the literature, based upon the nutrient loading concept, provide statistical relationships applicable to broad categories of lakes. In order to meet the requirements of water quality regulators, equations based upon USEPA survey data are developed in terms of the functional forms formulated and tested in the literature. Since recent authors have observed that much existing survey data are inappropriate for the formulation and testing of nutrient loading relationships, we have utilized results from the literature that work best with the existing data base, on grounds that such data are most inexpensively available to water quality managers. The nature of existing data limitations is discussed, and approaches to the revision of current results in light of improvements in the data base are indicated.     

GROUNDWATER ZONING IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT1

In today's society the planned management of groundwater resources has played an increasingly greater role. One means of insuring the protection of groundwater quantity and quality is a regional zoning of groundwater resources. Regional zoning means to classify a given region with regard to hydrogeological characteristics and to evaluate and determine the possible use of each zone. The necessary assumption is the appropriate knowledge of geological structure (compiled in a geological map) and of hydrogeological conditions (compiled in a hydrogeological map). The basis for subdivision is a hydrogeological unit distinguished and delineated on the basis of lithological, stratigraphical, structural, and hydrogeological characteristics. It should have its own distinct hydrological system. The hydrogeological region is the basic unit. Regions may be grouped into larger units: hydrogeological provinces and realms. The subdivision of regions into hydrogeological zones, or subzones when applicable, forms the basis for a groundwater development plan.     

AN APPLICATION OF NETWORK THEORY TO WATER MANAGEMENT IN POULTRY PROCESSING1

ABSTRACT This paper summarizes a study employing a systems approach for analyzing one class of modifications within a poultry processing plant. The modifications considered were changes in water-flow arrangements and process characteristics to reduce water intake of the plant and waste-treatment costs. The object of the study was to develop a technique or techniques by which a combination of proposed modifications could be chosen to minimize water flow through the plant. Existing and proposed flows were represented as a network, and linear programming was used to solve the minimum-flow problem for the network. Application of the technique was made to an existing, typical plant in Durham, N.C. Results of the application showed fresh water intake could be reduced by 45% to 51%, and furthermore that annual returns of 62% to 494% could be obtained on investment in the optimum modification sets, as fresh water costs varying from 10 cents to $1.00 per 1000 gal. Types of modifications of a poultry processing plant are classified by types, and the relative importance and effectiveness of each type are discussed.     

LAKE AND RWER QUALITY FOR RECREATION MANAGEMENT AND CONTINGENT VALUATION1

ABSTRACT: Accurate valuation of recreational lakes and rivers in contingent valuation (CV) studies requires that the definition of the environmental good being sold meets the requirements of correspondence, proximity, and familiarity. The concept of ‘water quality’ normally used fails to meet these requirements. This paper offers a broader concept of “lake/river quality” - a collection of physical, ecological, and aesthetic characteristics that create the opportunity for recreation, scenic enjoyment, and fish and wildlife propagation - that better describes the characteristics that recreationists value in lakes and rivers. The concept therefore better meets CV requirements and should be the basis for defining environmental improvements and declines to be hypothetically sold in CV surveys.     

WATER QUALITY TRENDS IN LAKE TOHOPEKALIGA,FLORIDA, USA: RESPONSES TO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Water quality in eutrophic Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, improved markedly from 1982 to 1992 as a result of reductions in phosphorus and nitrogen loading to the lake. Annual budgets of water, chloride, phosphorus and nitrogen were constructed for the lake, and indicate it is a sink for phosphorus and a source for nitrogen. Water column concentrations of total phosphorus, soluble reactive phosphorus, total nitrogen, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and chlorophyll a all declined as external inputs of nutrients decreased. Water column nitrogen: phosphorus ratios have increased, suggesting a probable shift from nitrogen- to phosphorus-limitation. This apparent shift in nutrient limitation status also is supported by comparisons of the mean Trophic State Indices for phosphorus, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a. These improvements in water quality are attributed to the diversion of wastewater treatment plant effluent from the lake, and the increased use of wet retention ponds for stormwater runoff.     

CAPITAL COSTS OF RURAL WATER SYSTEMS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: In the last two decades the federal government has provided substantial capital to construct rural water distribution systems. Loans at subsidized interest rates and front-end grants through the Farmers Home Administration have been the main source of this capital. Recent federal policy redirections have reduced substantially the availability of grants and subsidized loans. Because of design and material differences, capital cost estimates from urban systems are not uniformly applicable to rural water services. This study presents an econometric analysis of capital costs, using Illinois rural water system construction contract bids. Cost equations by systems components representing 90 percent of capital costs are estimated. The type of information developed here can be used in initial planning and optimization design models contributing to the efficient provision of rural water services.     

WATER QUALITY PREDICTION WITHIN AN INTERBASIN TRANSFER SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT A methodology for predicting the spatial and temporal levels of conservative water quality constituents within a multibasin water resource system is presented. Dissolved solids, sulfates, and chlorides are the constituents used during this investigation; however, any other conservative ion or mineral can be incorporated into the simulation model. The methodology is tested on the proposed Texas Water System. The water quality model, QNET-I, utilizes monthly canal and river flows and reservoir storage levels calculated by the Texas Water Development Board's systems simulation model. Discharge-concentration relationships are developed for each source of water in the system, including significant waste-water discharges. Reservoirs in the system are assumed to be completely mixed with respect to conservative constituents. A mass balance analysis is performed for each node and each month during the simulation period. The output from the water quality simulation is a table of the concentrations of the conservative water quality constituents at each demand point in the system and in each reservoir and canal for every month the system is in operation. The desired quality of the water at the demand locations is used to determine the economic utility of transporting and mixing water from various sources.     

A PARTITIONING PROCEDURE FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT MODELS1

ABSTRACT: An improved computational procedure for solving water quality management models containing interacting pollutants and control policies is presented. The method is developed with respect to the specific problem of minimizing the costs of basin-wide thermal and organic pollution control to meet water quality standards. It views the problem in partitioned form where a master problem is used to find cooling levels for thermal polluters while subproblems determine optimal organic pollutant reductions for fixed cooling levels. A gradient based search procedure is used to solve the master problem. Computational results for several river systems are presented. Application of the method to other water quality management models is suggested.     

APPLICATION OF CRITICAL PATH METHOD TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. The task of resource management, in this case water resources, is rapidly becoming more complex, particularly because decision making is often contingent upon various prior activities and sets of data. Comprehensive planning is required in order to prevent misallocation of resources or mismanagement in resource development. Such planning involves five general phases which are applicable to any problem faced by society: (1) problem identification; (2) formulation of alternatives; (3) evaluation of alternatives; (4) implementation; (5) review. There have been many attempts to simplify the planning process and effectively carry out these five phases. The experience of the Alberta Water Resources Division has been that the Critical Path Method is one of the most useful tools available today for planning. It involves two basic steps: (1) preparation of a network diagram which (a) identifies all the activities necessary for the completion of a project, (b) correctly sequences these activities, (c) allocates resources; and (2) mathematical computations for scheduling the activities. In other words, this approach breaks a task down into smaller units or activities for easier organization, scheduling, and performance for eventual completion of the project. This paper will illustrate the effectiveness of the Critical Path Method by discussing its application to actual water resources projects.     

MULTIVARIATE TREND TESTING OF LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Multivariate methods of trend analysis offer the potential for higher power in detecting gradual water quality changes as compared to multiple applications of univariate tests. Simulation experiments were used to investigate the power advantages of multivariate methods for both linear model and Mann-Kendall based approaches. The experiments focused on quarterly observations of three water quality variables with no serial correlation and with several different intervariable correlation structures. The multivariate methods were generally more powerful than the univariate methods, offering the greatest advantage in situations where water quality variables were positively correlated with trends in opposing directions. For illustration, both the univariate and multivariate versions of the Mann-Kendall based tests were applied to case study data from several lakes in Maine and New York which have been sampled as part of EPA's long term monitoring study of acid precipitation effects.     

A SURVEY OF STATE WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS IN THE U.S.1

ABSTRACT: Adequate water supplies are critical to the maintenance of a community's health and economic well-being. Across the nation communities are struggling to meet an expanding demand for water from municipal, industrial, agricultural, recreation, water quality, and power generation users. As the demand grows and communities actively compete with one another for a limited water supply, states are being called upon to help solve the problem. One possible solution that is being used in many areas is the development and implementation of a water conservation program to stretch the limited supply as far as possible. using a mailed survey, state water conservation programs and some of the characteristics of the different programs were documented. Responses to the nationwide survey were obtained from all 50 states. The specific water conservation program elements on which information was received from the survey included laws and restricted use, community assistance, education, research, and other services. Recommendations for states developing or considering the development of a water conservation program are outlined.     

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.