A STOCHASTIC MODEL TO EVALUATE RIPARIAN IRRIGATION EXPANSION IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation has expanded in parts of the eastern United States. In some areas, the adjoining surface (riparian) water is the most economical source of irrigation water. Expanded demand for riparian water may lead to conflict among irrigators and other streamflow users. Accurate information on the potential for and impacts of riparian irrigation expansion is needed to decide if control of such expansion is necessary. In this study, a stochastic economic model to evaluate the impacts of potential irrigation expansion is presented. The model considers the soil, location, and land use characteristics of individual sites, as well as weather and streamflow patterns. The application of the model to an eastern Virginia watershed indicates that, with maximum potential expansion, water availability becomes limited and yields will be reduced in some years. As a result, the expected net returns from irrigation and the probability of breaking even on the investment are reduced substantially. The results suggest the need to consider regulation of surface water allocation for irrigation development in riparian watersheds.     

THE CONCEPT OF SAFE GROUNDWATER YIELD IN COASTAL AQUIFERS1

The traditional factors used to determine safe yield of a groundwater basin (water supply, economics, water quality and water rights) do not include environmental effects. Because of the unique estuarine ecosystems associated with many coastal aquifers, environmental effects should be included in the determination of the safe yield of these aquifers. Controlled saline-water intrusion should be considered as a management tool in coastal aquifers. Artificial aquifer recharge using treated wastewater may be used to increase the safe yield of a coastal aquifer system while preserving the ecology of the coastal ecosystems.     

AN ANALYSIS OF RISING IRRIGATION COSTS IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation costs are rising rapidly on the 32 million acres irrigated with ground water. Ground water levels are declining under about 15 million of those acres adding to increased costs. However, from 1975 to 1982, 75 to 80 percent of increased ground water irrigation costs were due to higher nominal energy prices and interest rates. In real dollars, adjusted for inflation, these costs have risen faster than other irrigation costs and the real rise in commodity prices has been very small. A continuation of rapidly rising costs and slowly rising prices will shorten the economic life of those aquifers experiencing declining water levels. That same condition of prices and costs place all ground water irrigators in a disadvantaged position compared to nonirrigators and could cause a decline in ground water irrigation.     

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON QUALITY OF POTENTIAL WATER SUPPLY SOURCES IN THE SANGAMON RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The analysis of stream flow and several water quality parameters in six Illinois rivers showed both deterioration and improvement in quality indicators during 1976–1977 drought. The adverse impacts were an increase of ammonia and manganese concentrations and, to a lesser degree, increased concentrations of phenol and specific conductance. At the worst point during the drought, the 12-month moving average of monthly ammonia concentration in the Sangamon River was about 620 percent higher than the antecedent value. On the other hand, average concentrations of nitrites and nitrates, total iron, and the number of coliform bacteria significantly decreased. This positive response suggests that streams which are considered unsuitable for municipal supply due to high levels of these quality indicators may be used as emergency sources during droughts.     

ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES FOR FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELS1

ABSTRACT: The environmental effects of flood control channel modifications such as clearing and snagging, straightening, enlargement, and/or paving can be quite severe in some cases. Information review reveals that several environmental features have been incorporated into the design, construction, operation, or maintenance of recent flood control channel projects to avoid adverse environmental impacts and enhance environmental quality. Typically, these features have been proposed by conservation agencies and designed with minimal quantitative analysis. Environmental features for channel projects include selective clearing and snagging techniques, channel designs with nonuniform geometry such as single bank modification and floodways, restoration and enhancement of aquatic habitat, improved techniques for placement of excavated material, and revegetation.     

DOCUMENTATION OF HIGH SUMMER FLOWS ON THE POTOMAC RIVER FROM THE WOOD ANATOMY OF ASH TREES1

ABSTRACT: Ash trees (Fraxinus americana L. and F. Pennsylvanica Marsh.) collected from the flood plain of the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., were studied for evidence of associations between known periods of above-average summer flows and changes in wood-growth anatomy. Concentric bands of latewood fibers with atypically large lumens and thin walls commonly developed in trees growing near the low-water channel. Discharge records indicate that roots of most trees with these “white rings” were flooded temporarily during the latewood-growth interval. Trees apparently were not damaged and a concomitant reduction of internal water stresses seems to have accelerated the rate of radial growth. The intra-ring position of anomalous fibers generally corresponded to the time of increased discharge within the estimated interval of latewood growth. Anomalous fibers occasionally formed in unflooded trees, but their position also coincided with episodes of increased discharge. The results of these studies may have applications for streamflow-reconstruction techniques where hydrologic data are incomplete or lacking.     

CHANGES IN WATER POLICY IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA1

ABSTRACT: Ideology has predisposed the People's Republic of China against the use of prices to allocate water. Prolonged drought in north China has made the Chinese more aware of their unfavorable water resource inventory and the expense of expanding supply. Therefore, as part of the economic liberalization commenced since the death of Mao Zedong, China has started to make more active use of pricing to regulate demand and reduce the need for supply expansion.     

FECAL COLIFORM RELEASE FROM CATTLE FECAL DEPOSITS1

ABSTRACT: Cowpies molded to a standard configuration and size were subjected to simulated rainfall, and the fecal coliform counts were determined using the most probable number (MPN) method of enumeration. The standard cowpie deposits were exposed to simulated rainfall once at ages 2 through 100 days. The effects of rainfall intensity and recurrent rainfall were also tested. Naturally-occurring fecal deposits were also tested to compare their results with those from the standard cowpies. A log-log regression was found to describe the decline in peak fecal coliform release with fecal deposit age. The 100-day-old fecal deposits produced peak counts of 4,200 fecal coliform per 100 milliliters of water. This quantity of release is minimal compared to the release from fresher fecal material. Rainfall intensity had little effect on peak fecal coliform release from fecal deposits that were 2 or 10 days old. At age 20 days the effect of rainfall intensity was significant; the highest intensity gave the lowest peak counts, and the lowest intensity gave the highest peak counts. The effect of rainfall intensity appears to be related to the dryness of the fecal deposits. Peak fecal coliform counts were significantly lowered when the fecal deposits were rained on more than once. This decline was thought to be produced by the loss of bacteria from the fecal deposits during the previous wettings. Standard cowpies produced a peak release regression that was not significantly different from the regression for the natural fecal deposits. Apparently, grossly manipulating the fecal deposits did not significantly change the release patterns.     

IMPACT OF WATER CUTBACK ON SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN THE FLORIDA EVERGLADES1

ABSTRACT: Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) was planted in six lysimeters containing Pahokee muck (Lithic Mediaprist) where water tables were maintained at 30, 60, and 90 cm depths. The main objective was to study the impact of a 40 percent water cutback (108 mm) on sugarcane production during the period near the end of the dry season (i.e., May). The water cutback treatment was simulated through manipulation of water table depth. Due to the high available water capacity of the muck soil and selection of a sugarcane cultivar ‘CP63-588’ (which has a high tolerance of water table fluctuations), the sugarcane growth, and the yields of sugarcane biomass and sugar were not significantly different as a result of the treatments with and without 40 percent water cutback during a period of two months. This result is in good agreement with the 1981 cane yield in the Everglades Agricultural Area where a 35 percent water cutback was imposed during the 1981 drought.     

THE HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER EXPERIENCE IN NONSTRUCTURAL PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of Engineers, has been engaged in research, training, and project assistance in non-structural flood control planning for Corps offices across the United States since 1975. Lessons learned from this experience deal with the role of nonstructural measures in flood plain management, the role of creativity in analysis, the role of analysis, and tools for analysis. The role of nonstructural measures in flood control planning depends upon the scale of the problem, the nature of the measure, the degree of protection desired, and whether damage is to existing or future property. An earnest seeking for nonstructural opportunities, a field presence for their formulation, and compatbility with local infrastructure plans are prerequisite to creative use of nonstructural measures. Analysis is a necessary complement of creativity. Several tools for nonstructural analysis have been developed and applied to flood problems involving several hundred and several thousand structures.     

THE ENHANCED ROLE OF WATER CONSERVATION IN THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF WATER PROJECTS1

The concept of water conservation has increased in importance because of revisions in the rules and procedures for performing cost-benefit analyses of federal water projects. These revisions include a requirement that nonstructural and water conservation measures be incorporated into economic assessments of projects. Project analyses will now proceed as if water supplies were allocated “most effectively,” that is, to their highest valued uses. A related requirement provides that the net benefits of any project should now be valued using willingness to pay measures. A specific cost-benefit methodology accommodating the revisions is constructed and discussed. Informational requirements for applying this methodology are identified. In addition to being consistent with federal mandates, this technique offers important advantages over the traditional “requirements” approach to water supply planning.     

PERCEIVED WATER QUALITY AND THE VALUE OF SEASONAL HOMES1

ABSTRACT: The impact of degraded water quality on the value of seasonal homes adjacent to St. Albans Bay on Lake Champaign in northern Vermont is estimated using hedonic price functions. The Value of properties located adjacent to the bay are depressed by about 20 percent, or $4,500 on average, compared with similar nearby properties on the larger but cleaner lake. Water quality degradation resulted in decressed property values of approximately two million dollars in the area surrounding the Bay.     

PREDICTION OF PEAK FLOWS ON SMALL WATERSHEDS IN OREGON FOR USE IN CULVERT DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: Using data from 80 Oregon watersheds that ranged in size from 0.54 km² to 27.45 km², equations were developed to predict peak flows for use in culvert design on forest roads. Oregon was divided into six physiographic regions based on previous studies of flood frequency. In each region, data on annual peak flow from gaging stations with more than 20 years of record were analyzed using four flood frequency distributions: type 1 extremal, two parameter-log normal, three parameter-log normal, and log-Pearson type III. The log-Pearson type III distribution was found to be suitable for use in all regions of the State, based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit-test. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years were related to physical and climatic characteristics of drainage basins by multiple regression. Drainage basin size was the most important variable in explaining the variation of flood peaks in all regions. Mean basin elevation and mean annual precipitation were also significantly related to flood peaks in two regions of western Oregon. The standard error of the estimate for the regression relationships ranged from 26 to 84 percent.     

EMERGING CONCEPTS FOR THE CONDUCT OF STATE WATER RESOURES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: The development of water resources planning at the state level is discussed. Although there are significant specific differences among state planning programs, some common general principles of state water resources planning are emerging over time. In the interest of reconciling conflict over water allocation states are engaged in policy clarification, mediation of interst group conflict, and provision of baseline information.     

CAPITAL COSTS OF RURAL WATER SYSTEMS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: In the last two decades the federal government has provided substantial capital to construct rural water distribution systems. Loans at subsidized interest rates and front-end grants through the Farmers Home Administration have been the main source of this capital. Recent federal policy redirections have reduced substantially the availability of grants and subsidized loans. Because of design and material differences, capital cost estimates from urban systems are not uniformly applicable to rural water services. This study presents an econometric analysis of capital costs, using Illinois rural water system construction contract bids. Cost equations by systems components representing 90 percent of capital costs are estimated. The type of information developed here can be used in initial planning and optimization design models contributing to the efficient provision of rural water services.     

PRELIMINARY STUDIES IN THE TERRESTRIAL DISPOSITION OF SILVER FROM CLOUD SEEDING1

ABSTRACT. Silver iodide is currently the most favored cloud seeding material in weather modification projects. While the literature indicates that its ecological effects are likely to be insignificant, its disposition in the terrestrial ecosystem after snow melt has not been adequately studied. Silver levels in soil, plant and litter material are being monitored twice a year on a mountainous area in southwestern Colorado, to determine whether annual accretion from cloud seeding can be measured with current techniques and whether significant changes in silver concentration take place in grass, aspen, and spruce communities. One AgI generator site is also being monitored. Comparison of silver concentrations in terrestrial components of the target area indicates no measurable increase after the first winter's seeding. On an ash basis, spruce foliage and litter contain about four times as much silver as soil. On a dry weight basis, soil from all three plant communities contains about six times as much silver as foliage. Consistent increases in silver concentration were found in soil and pine foliage within 200 meters of one generator site.     

THE IMPACT OF FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS ON RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES IN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: The impact of floodplain regulations on mean appreciation rates of residential land values was tested at six study areas in five counties in western Oregon. The study hypothesis that such regulations significantly depress appreciation rates of regulated lands relative to those of similar unregulated lands was in most cases rejected. When the hypothesis was accepted circumstances would render conclusions tenuous. The problems and issues facing this type of research are presented in case studies of two of the research study areas. The following factors challenge investigators seeking to resolve questions about the relationship between land use regulations and land values: varying degrees of stringency with which regulations are enforced; unequal assessment procedures between counties; influences external to floodplain regulations that may affect appreciation rates, including denial of permits for septic tanks, flood damages, and amenity values associated with waterfront locations; and the uncertain effect that the availability of flood insurance, which accompanies floodplain regulations, has on land values.     

IMPACT ON RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSUMPTION OF AN INCREASING RATE STRUCTURE1

ABSTRACT: A two-step procedure is used to estimate the impact of an increasing rate structure on residential water use. An error components regression procedure is used to estimate demand relationships for a period prior to the rate change. Water use is predicted for the post rate change period, assuming that the rate structure was not changed. Comparison of actual with predicted use indicate that water use declined as a result of the imposition of the increasing rate structure.     

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.