ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

CLASSIFICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYDROLOGIC BEHAVIORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Environmental response to acidic deposition results from movement of water through the ecosystem. As a part of the environmental studies for acidic deposition sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), hydrologic classification based on regional baseflow properties was done. To obtain the amount of baseflow, a flow separation method was developed based on the division of streamflows into “baseflow” and “other” runoff sources. Because of the differences in the flow paths and exposure duration, the two components were assumed to be associated with distinct geo-chemical responses. Individual annual hydrographs were analyzed using 31 separation slopes to determine the amount of baseflow. A total of 1575 streamflow stations in the Northeastern U.S. were analyzed through the access of a long-term daily stream-flow data base. An interactive computer program was developed to obtain baseflow properties and other hydrologic characteristics of each station. The output from this analysis was used to perform cluster analysis to classify streamflow behaviors. The clustering output showed different regional boundaries than those currently used by the EPA for water quality studies.     

FLOOD INUNDATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Panchromatic black and white, color, and color infrared photographs and thermal infrared imagery are compared for a capability to show flood boundaries. In open agricultural and urban areas, these boundaries are easily delineated on all types of am. Boundaries are more difficult to see in wooded areas. In March, hardwood trees are dormant, but black and white photographs and color photographs show only the tops of these trees. Color infrared photographs in January and March have a distinctive color or tone in inundated woods; the limit of this tone is the flood boundary. Daytime thermal infrared imagery in March shows that inundated woods are cooler than dry land but warmer than open water. After about April 1, both color infrared photography and thermal infrared imagery show only the top of the tree canopy and do not reflect underlying flood water. Inundated areas can be delineated easily on ERTS satellite imagery from December through March. On imagery from May 4–5, 1973, however, most inundation boundaries had to be drawn as dashed lines; the tree canopy obscures flood waters in wooded areas. Despite this problem, the results of mapping flood boundaries on May imagery are believed to be reasonable for the scale of the imagery.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE1

To aid in planning and design of additional flood protection on the Lower Rio Grande, the Hydroraeteorological Branch prepared a probable maximum precipitation study for the International Boundary and Water Commission (United States and Mexico) and the Republic of Mexico. Five drainages from 2,000 to over 17,000 square miles in area between Falcon and Anzalduas Dams including Rio San Juan and Rio Alamo in Mexico are the areas of concern. The great rains of hurricane Beulah, September 19–24, 1967 verified that additional protection is needed. Procedures for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are described. A particular problem was to estimate rainfall potential for the Sierra Madre Oriental in Rio San Juan and Alamo drainages. These mountains form a north-south windward-facing slope and barrier of over 7000 feet in elevation. A detailed study was made of rains from hurricane Beulah. The storm produced the greatest known rain depths in North America for 50,000 square miles or greater, and durations longer than 48 hours.     

PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT BIASES IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Gage-induced biases in monthly precipitation are estimated and removed at 1818 stations across the continental United States from 1950 through 1987. Deleterious effects of the wind and wetting losses on the interior walls of the gage were considered. These “corrected” estimates were obtained using site-specific information including wind speed, shelter-height air temperature, gage height, and sheltering. Wind speed and air temperature were interpolated at stations for which these data were not available using a spherically-based, nearest neighbor interpolation procedure. Results indicate that, as expected, biases are greater in the winter than the summer owing to the increased problems (particularly wind-induced) of measuring snowfall. In summer, percent errors range between 4 and 6 percent over nearly three-quarters of the United States with slightly larger errors over the Rocky Mountains. By contrast, winter biases are highly correlated with snowfall totals and percentage errors increase poleward, mimicking patterns of snowfall frequency. Since these biases are not trivial, they must be accounted for in order to obtain accurate and reliable time-series. If these biases are not properly addressed, serious errors can be introduced into climate change, hydrologic modeling, and environmental impact research.     

STATUS OF RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEMS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: An attempt was made to review all available data on the extent and status of riparian ecosystems in the U.S.A. This report presents a synthesis of the findings, including some estimates of how much land was originally covered by woody riparian vegetation, and how much remains in that condition today. A synopsis of information is presented on the status of riparian ecosystems in each of 10 regions: California, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountain, Arid Southwest, Plains-Grasslands, Lake States, Corn Belt, Mississippi Delta, Northeast-Appalachian, and Southeast. Woody riparian plant communities once covered an estimated 75 to 100 million acres of land in the contiguous 48 states. Mankind has converted at least two-thirds of that nationwide acreage to other non-forest land uses and it is estimated that only 25 to 35 million acres of riparian plant communities remain in a near natural condition. Across the country, loss of riparian acreages is directly attributable to water resource development (especially channel modification and water impoundment), floodplain clearing for agriculture, and urbanization. In many states of the arid west, the midwest, and the lower Mississippi alluvial valley, riparian vegetation has been reduced in area by more than 80 percent. Riparian woodlands are one of this country's most heavily modified natural vegetation types.     

OUTPUT AND INVESTMENT FRONTIERS OF UNITED STATES IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Economic models sometimes indicate that irrigation water is misallocated in agriculture, especially when it appears that the marginal value product is higher in other uses (such as for hydro-power). Historically, trends tend to contradict this reasoning, however, especially since irrigation has grown from 20 million acres in 1940 to over 50 million acres in 1980. Results of this study tend to indicate that as agriculture becomes more and more intensive (in terms of inputs), irrigation is part of that long term trend. Further, major economic variables, such as output and investments in agriculture, appear to be more highly correlated with irrigated land than with dryland agriculture. Recent data indicate an upper limit of about 320 million acres for dryland farming in the United States, while no such constraint is apparent for irrigated agriculture.     

TRENDS IN WESTERN UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE: IRRIGATION ORGANIZATIONS1

ABSTRACT: From 1940 to 1978, irrigated acreage in the Western United States increased by over 150 percent, irrigated acres per farm increased by 204 percent, and the number of irrigation organizations grew by 31 percent. Understanding the factors affecting these trends (in the structure of irrigated agriculture) is the key to formulating policies for efficient allocation and transfer of water in the west. Four variables that impact the composition of irrigation organizations are farm size changes, organizational efficiency, intersectoral competition for water, and governmental policies. The conclusions show that from 1940 to 1978, the total number of irrigated farms and organizations declined, and the average farm size increased, and larger management oriented organizations such as districts and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation have become more prevalent. With respect to total quantities of water delivered, districts have increased over 50 percent since the 1959 Census and over 100 percent since the 1950 Census, while unincorporated mutuals have declined by approximately 20 percent. Future organizational structure tends to be moving in the direction of more management control as opposed to user control. Changes in water use, delivery, investment, transfers, and laws will continue to change the structure of irrigation organizations and institutions in the west.     

VARIABILITY OF BOTTOM SEDIMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Sediment characteristics of samples from physiographic provinces of the continental United States were examined to determine variability within and among physiographic provinces and to compare characteristics of freshwater and saltwater sediments. Organic carbon, particle size distribution, particle surface area, cation exchange capacity, redox potential, and percent solids were examined for a variety of lotic and lentic freshwater sediment samples and nearshore estuarine and marine samples from the continental United States. Analysis of variance indicated significant differences (p < 0.05) within and among physiographic provinces for both freshwater and saltwater sediment samples. Sediment characteristics within physiographic provinces were as variable as characteristics among provinces. Freshwater sediment characteristics were not significantly different (p < 0.05) from saltwater sediment characteristics. Saltwater sediment characteristics were observed to be more strongly correlated with each other than were freshwater sediment characteristics. Based on the variability of sediment samples examined in this study, a specific site may require 50 or more replicate samples to be adequately or accurately represented.     

A MUNICIPAL WATER DEMAND MODEL FOR THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

With the increasing Federal role in all aspects of water resource planning, the need for a planning model to enable calculations of projected Municipal Water requirements has become evident. This study represents an initial effort at developing an econometric model of Municipal Water requirements which (1) incorporates variables (or proxies) reflecting the various factors affecting water demand (i.e., demographic, social, industrial), and (2) requires only readily available, published data for its use. This model permits determinations of the water requirements of 488 cities grouped into 19 geographic regions or “Pseudo States.” Separate regression functions have been fitted to the cities within each of the 19 regions. Derivation of the exact functions for each region entailed a cross section stepwise regression analysis in which some 18 different variables were examined. KEY WORDS: planning model; econometric model; initial effort; municipal water     

GENERATED MONTHLY STREAMFLOWS FOR THE MIDWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT A critical examination of single gage site, monthly streamflow statistical characteristics for two southern Illinois rivers, an Oklahoma river and a Texas river was made using a digital computer at Northwestern University. High flow variability for the rivers was evident in that, for the rivers tested, 8 to 11 months had coefficients of variation in excess of unity. The gamma distribution was not as efficient as the normal distribution for fitting power or logarithmic transforms of the historical monthly flow data (i.e., F^1-0, F^0-5, F^0-25, Fa¹²⁵, F^0.085, and log F). No single transform to a normal distribution was adequate for all twelve monthly flows, since definite seasonal grouping patterns were found for the four rivers examined. The highly variable flow in the low-flow season(s) indicated much more skewness than was typical of the remainder of the year. For the low-flow seasons, the higher-root (smaller exponent) transforms were particularly useful. Flows were generated from a linear regression model of lag one utilizing two or more transforms for the twelve periods. The definite seasonal patterns found historically were reproduced quite well in the generated streamflows. The effect of a change in data transform from one season to the next was insignificant after one month. Thus the use of different transforms within the year did not bias the results from the linear regression model appreciably, but did help in reproducing the seasonal distribution pattern. The technique seems especially well suited for rivers with highly variable flows.     

GEOHYDROLOGY AND HYDROCHEMISTRY OF THE DAKOTA AQUIFER,CENTRAL UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: The Dakota aquifer, composed of the Dakota Sandstone and stratigraphically equivalent sandstone units of Cretaceous age, is the upper-most regional aquifer underlying the extensively developed High Plains aquifer of the midwestern United States. The concentration of dissolved solids in ground water of the Dakota aquifer ranges from less than 500 milligrams per liter in calcium bicarbonate type water in the eastern outcrop area to more than 100,000 milligrams per liter in sodium chloride type oilfield brine in the Denver Basin to the west. Preliminary maps showing the distribution of dissolved solids confirm the complex nature of the Dakota aquifer as inferred from stratigraphic and hydraulic evidence. Extensive vertical leakage through confining layers, local recharge at the truncated eastern boundary, and a barrier to recharge along the western edge of the Denver Basin are consistent with the distribution of hydraulic head and dissolved solids.     

HYDROLOGIC SCENARIOS FOR SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANNUAL RUNOFF AND WATERSHED AREA FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's effort to determine the long-term effects of acidic deposition on surface water chemistry, annual runoff was estimated for about 1000 ungaged sites in the eastern U.S. using runoff contour maps. One concern in using contour maps was that a bias may be introduced in the runoff estimates due to the size of the 1000 ungaged sites relative to the size of the watersheds used in developing the maps. To determine if a bias was present the relationship between the annual runoff (expressed as depth) and the watershed area for the Northeast (NE) and Southern Blue Ridge Province (SBRP) was tested using five regional data bases. One short-term data base (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and two long-term data bases (1940–57, n = 134 and 1951–80, n = 342) were used in the NE. In the SBRP one short-term database (1984 Water Year, n = 531) and one long-term data base (1951–80, n = 60) were used. For the NE and the SBRP, runoff was not directly correlated with watershed area using the five regional databases. Also, runoff normalized by precipitation was not related to watershed area.     

COMPETING WATER USES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES: VALUING DROUGHT DAMAGES1

ABSTRACT: Economic benefit functions of water resource use are estimated for all major offstream and instream uses of Colorado River water. Specific benefit estimates are developed for numerous agricultural regions, for municipal uses, and for cooling water in thermal energy generation. Economic benefits of hydropower generation are given, as are those for recreation on Colorado River reservoirs and on one free-flowing reach. Marginal and total benefit estimates for Colorado River water use are provided. The estimates presented here represent a synthesis of previous work, providing in total a comprehensive set of economic demand functions for competing uses of Colorado River water. Non-use values (e.g., benefits of preserving endangered species) are not estimated.     

INTERSTATE WATER ALLOCATION COMPACTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES - SOME SUGGESTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Agreements between states, or compacts, provide a mechanism for resolving transboundary resource issues. The twenty-two compacts allocating the water of rivers among states in the western United States are examined to provide guidance for drafters of future compacts. The method of allocation selected for a compact reflects the state's allocation of the risk of dry years. Allocations based on models have been unsuccessful. Percentage allocations are good for fairly apportioning risk, but conflict with principles of prior appropriation. Guarantees of minimum flows should be used with great care, to avoid any state becoming a guarantor of natural phenomena over which it has no control. Disputes should be anticipated, and a dispute resolution mechanism agreed upon. Arbitration or litigation are likely to prove the most politically acceptable. Compacts should be comprehensive in scope, encompassing groundwater as well as surface use. Federal claims should also be addressed, and some form of protection from subsequent changes of federal policy should be incorporated in the agreement and its ratifying legislation.     

INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO1

ABSTRACT. Despite radical differences in water laws, water management agencies, approaches to water planning, and financial resources, Mexico and the United States forged a common program to manage water and related land on the Rio Grande. Actions of Rio Grande Commissions related to stream gaging, boundary definition, and multiple-purpose construction projects are among the more successful international water-management efforts in the world. Cost-sharing arrangements promoted rapid completing of international works. However, joint action accomplished only part of expectations. International developments were competitive rather than complementary until basin water appropriation was virtually complete. Moreover, Commissions were not empowered to consider long-range competitive water needs, or regional water requirements, throughout the basin. International groundwater use coordination does not exist. International structures produce less than anticipated benefits. Hydroelectric generators are financial liabilities, irrigated acreage exceeds dependable streamflow, and soil salinization is experienced. Unanticipated environmental changes occurred in every major program. The Rio Grande experience points to the need for society to specify goals to which the use of water should contribute and to specify priorities for water use among different sectors of river basins and various segments of society.     

ANNUAL,SEASONAL, AND MONTHLY CHANGES IN RUNOFF IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT The runoff from a series of watersheds in the United States is examined to determine if there are distinct trends present. The data are examined for the period 1931-1960 and the results compared with those obtained for the period from the beginning of record to 1960. A larger sample of streams with records of various lengths is also utilized. The data used are annual, seasonal, and monthly values. The streams are grouped geographically to determine if regional patterns exist. The runoff increased on the majority of streams for the period 1931-1960, but for the period from the beginning of record to 1960 most streams exhibited a negative trend. When geographical distribution is considered, the streams located in the interior of the continent show greater similarity of trend than do those on the continental margins.