A SIMULATION OF RIVER-BASIN RESPONSE TO MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL FORCING: THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN EXPERIMENT (SRBEX)1

ABSTRACT: A mesoscale meteorological model, a surface hydrology model, and a ground-water hydrology model are linked to simulate the hydrographic response of a large river basin to a single storm. Synoptic climatology is employed to choose a representative hydro-climatic event. The mesoscale meteorological model uses three nested domains to simulate relatively high-resolution precipitation over a sub-basin of the Susquehanna River Basin. The hydrology models simulate surface runoff and ground-water baseflow using both analyzed and simulated precipitation. The hydrologic abstractions are handled using both Curve Number and Green-Ampt routines. To support the linkage of the numerical models, special attention is given to data resampling and reprojection. The mesoscale meteorological model simulation captures the spatial and temporal structure of the storm event, while the hydrology models represent the timing of the event well. The Curve Number method generates a realistic hydrograph with both analyzed and simulated precipitation. In contrast, the hydrographic response generated by the Green-Ampt routine is inferior. Several interrelated factors contribute to these results, including: the nature of the precipitation event chosen for the experiment; the tendency of the mesoscale meteorological model to underpredict low intensity, widespread precipitation in this case; and the influence of the surface soil-texture characteristics on infiltration rates.     

ROLE OF BASEFLOW IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF RELATIONS1

ABSTRACT. The role of initial baseflow, or the baseflow at the beginning of storm precipitation, in modifying mathematical rainfall-runoff relations is analyzed by using data from 95 storms over a drainage basin in Illinois. A regression model is set up with total runoff, surface runoff, baseflow runoff, and peak flow as dependent variables, and storm precipitation, initial baseflow, effective and total storm durations, and highest and lowest temperatures during the storm as independent variables. Stepwise regression analyses show that storm precipitation and initial baseflow are the most important variables for making dependent variable estimates. The standard error estimates using only storm precipitation and initial baseflow as predictors show a seasonal trend with a peak in July, August, or September. An understanding of the role of baseflow as an indicator of average soil moisture condition over the basin can be of great help in short-term reservoir regulation and flood warning.     

SIZING OF SURFACE WATER RUNOFF DETENTION PONDS FOR WATER QUALITY IMPROVEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historically, storm water management programs and criteria have focused on quantity issues related to flooding and drainage system design. Traditional designs were based on large rainfall‐runoff events such as those having two‐year to 100‐year return periods. While these are key criteria for management and control of peak flows, detention basin designs based on these criteria may not provide optimal quality treatment of storm runoff. As evidenced by studies performed by numerous public and private organizations, the water quality impacts of storm water runoff are primarily a function of more frequent rainfall‐runoff events rather than the less frequent events that cause peak flooding. Prior to this study there had been no detailed investigations to characterize the variability of the more frequent rainfall events on Guam. Also, there was a need to develop some criteria that could be applied by designers, developers, and agency officials in order to reduce the impact of storm water runoff on the receiving bodies. The objectives of this paper were three‐fold: (1) characterize the hourly rainfall events with respect to volume, frequency, duration, and the time between storm events; (2) evaluate the rainfall‐runoff characteristics with respect to capture volume for water quality treatment; and (3) prepare criteria for sizing and designing of storm water quality management facilities. The rainfall characterization studies have provided insight into the characteristics of rainstorms that are likely to produce non‐point source pollution in storm water runoff. By far the most significant fmdings are the development of a series of design curves that can be used in the actual sizing of storm water detention and treatment facilities. If applied correctly, these design curves could lead to a reduction of non‐point source pollution to Guam's streams, estuaries, and coastal environments.     

EMPIRICAL MODELING OF HYDROLOGIC AND NFS POLLUTANT FLUX IN AN URBANIZING BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Long term effects of precipitation and land use/land cover on basin outflow and nonpoint source (NFS) pollutant flux are presented for up to 24 years for a rapidly developing headwater basin and three adjacent headwater basins on the urban fringe of Washington, D.C. Regression models are developed to describe the annual and seasonal responses of basin outflow and IMPS pollutant flux to precipitation, mean impervious surface (IS), and land use. To quantify annual change in mean IS, a variable called delta IS is created as a temporal indicator of urban soil disturbance. Hydrologic models indicate that total annual surface outflow is significantly associated with precipitation and mean IS (r²= 0.65). Seasonal hydrologic models reveal that basin outflow is positively associated with IS during the summer and fall growing season (June to November). NPS pollutant flux models indicate that total and storm total suspended solids (TSS) flux are significantly associated with precipitation and urban soil disturbance in all seasons. Annual NPS total nitrogen flux is significantly associated with both urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.51). Seasonal models of phosphorus flux indicate a significant association of total phosphorus flux with urban soil disturbance during the growing season. Total soluble phosphorus (TSP) flux is significantly associated with IS (r²= 0.34) and urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.58). In urbanizing Cub Run basin, annual TSP concentrations are significantly associated with IS and cultivated agriculture (r²= 0.51).     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

VERIFICATION OF THE RHEA-OROGRAPHIC-PRECIPITATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Observed April 1 snowpack accumulations within and near the Gunnison River basin in southwestern Colorado are compared with simulations from the Rhea-orographic-precipitation model to determine if the model simulates reliable magnitudes and temporal and spatial variability in winter precipitation for the basin. Twenty simulations of the Rhea model were performed using‘optimal’parameter sets determined for 10-kilometer (km) grids (10-km by 10-km grid cells) through stochastic calibration. Comparisons of Rhea-model simulations of winter precipitation with April 1 snowpack accumulations at 32 snowcourse stations were performed for the years 1972–1990. For most stations and most years the Rhea model reliably simulates the temporal and spatial variability in April 1 snowpack accumulations. However, in general, the Rhea-model underestimates April 1 snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin area, and the underestimation is greatest for locations that receive the largest amount of snow. A significant portion of the error in Rhea-model simulations is due to the calibration of the Rhea model using gauge-catch precipitation measurements which can be as much as 50 percent below actual snowfall accumulations. Additional error in the Rhea-model simulations is a result of the comparison of gridded precipitation values to observed values measured at points.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND CONTRIBUTING CAUSES OF AN ABNORMAL FREQUENCY OF FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINSTORMS AT CHICAGO1

ABSTRACT: Major hydrometeorological factors pertinent to defining and understanding the hydrologic characteristics of urban and other small-basin storms were investigated using data from a continuous 44-year operation of a recording raingage network in Chicago. Factors included: the frequency distribution of basin mean rainfall and its relation to storm maximum precipitation; the spatial distribution characteristics of each storm, including storm rainfall reduction factors which are widely used in hydrologic design problems; and weather-related causes related to the frequency and intensity of severe rainstorms in the Chicago area in recent years. Results have indicated that urban mean rainfall frequencies were overestimated in earlier studies in which they were derived from point/areal mean rainfall ratios obtained from much shorter records on rural networks. Reduction factors were found to vary between urban and rural storm systems due to urban-related effects. Two factors were found to be potential contributors to the characteristics of severe rainstorm occurrences at Chicago. These include urban-induced rain enhancement and an upward climatic trend in the occurrence of heavy rainfall events during the sampling period. Study results should be generally applicable to other large urban areas in the Midwest and other regions of similar precipitation climate.     

A SURVEY OF THE U.S. NATIONAL PRECIPITATION NETWORK1

ABSTRACT: Numbers and record lengths of precipitation stations were surveyed in the conterminous United States using climatological data published in 1975 by the National Weather Service (NWS). The total numbers of nonrecording (8247) and recording (3036) gages were about the same as in the 1940s and less than in the late 1950s; about 70 percent of the nonrecording gages have record lengths of 25 years or more. State network densities were increased exponentially with population density and long term precipitation average. Except for a few states, precipitation stations maintained by the NWS are adequate in numbers to ensure a 95 percent statistical probability that state sample means will estimate true means within ± 5 percent.     

NWSRFS CALIBRATION PARAMETER SELECTION AND GEOLOGIC REASONING: PACIFIC NORTHWEST CASES1

ABSTRACT: The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) is the new hydrologic prediction model for the National Weather Service (NWS) and provides guidance to meteorologists who issue NWS Flood Warnings to the public. The primary submodel within NWSRFS is the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, which predicts surface runoff as a function of meteorological, geological, and soil data calibrated over a watershed. The research presented here focuses on a different approach to NWSRFS calibrations: greater utilization of geologic and soil data, in order to give the model better predictive capability. Geologic understanding can create better insights for the initial estimation and subsequent adjustment of SAC-SMA parameters. Fifteen calibrated Pacific Northwest drainages reveal a variety of hydrogeologic responses. For example, results for the Mount Rainier drainages show the complex interaction between active glaciers, impermeable volcanic surfaces, and glacial sedimentary valleys. Unweathered volcanic terrains show flashy peak flows, fast flow recessions, and low baseflow. Sedimentary terrains display subdued peak flows, slow flow recessions, and higher baseflow. Operational implementation of these calibrations at the NWS's Northwest River Forecast Center has yielded more accurate predictive results since 1995. NWS hydrologic forecasters nationwide could benefit from using drainage basin geologic characteristics in understanding and improving model calibrations and real time forecasts.     

ISOLATING THE RANDOM RAMSTORM COMPONENT FROM BASIN RESPONSE FACTORS IN RAINFALLRUNOFF DATA1

ABSTRACT: Gaged watersheds can provide information as to geomorphic, and geologic influence on the spatial variability of rainfall-runoff relationships. However, correlations between raingages distributed throughout the basin, and stream discharge are influenced by both storm patterns and drainage basin characteristics. Factor analysis has been applied to rainfall-runoff relationship to isolate the storm pattern from a basin response factor. Comparing two periods of time separated by eight years reveals relative stability in the rainfall attenuation (basin response) factor, while storm patterns for the two periods of record are quite disparate.     

A HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: An extensive research program in hydrometeorology was recently initiated in the Chicago region. Major objectives are to 1) develop a real-time, prediction-monitoring system for storm rainfall using a combination of weather radar and telemetered raingage data, 2) determine precipitation measurement requirements for hydrologic design, operation, and modeling purposes, 3) define the time-space characteristics of heavy rainstorms in the Chicago urban area, and 4) establish methods for applying the Chicago findings in other cities. Basic components of the field measurement program are a network of over 300 recording raingages in 4000 mi² in and around Chicago, plus two sophisticated weather radar systems for obtaining real-time information on storm parameters pertinent to optimizing operation of urban water resources systems. The raingage networks are to be used to compile information relevant to both design and operational aspects of urban hydrology. Radars are to be used primarily in developing the real-time operational techniques. Testing and evaluation of the real-time operational system will be done in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sanitary District of Chicago, operator of one of the most complex urban water control systems among major metropolitan areas.     

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT: THE CONCEPT AND ITS APPLICATION1

ABSTRACT: Storm water management is a concept being applied in many urban areas to deal with the increasing problems of storm runoff control and flood damage prevention. This paper introduces the concept and describes the recently completed storm water management program in Columbus, Georgia. Columbus has spent five years and over $200,000 in the development of their problem which includes several basic elements: soils inventory and analysis, hydrologic data collection, sediment and erosion control ordinance, storm water management handbook, urban flood simulation model, interdepartment coordination study, drainage problem categorization study, and a pilot basin study. The results of the pilot basin study are presented including example output from the urban simulation model. The computer output illustrates both the hydrologic-hydraulic and economic capabilities of the model.     

WATER LOSS EQUATIONS AND COEFFICIENTS TO ESTIMATE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL1

Infiltration models are based on physical characteristics of the soil and initial soil moisture. For a given soil it is based on the initial soil moisture distribution. A computer simulation model for flood runoff systems (FH-Model) was used to analyze 39 sets of rainfall-runoff data on four small watersheds ranging in size from 17 to 342 square kilometers located in the Yamaska River basin in Quebec. From these analyses, parameters and coefficients have been determined for a water loss (infiltration) equation. A method for determining the loss parameters, using a nonlinear least square curve fitting technique, is presented. Expressions were made to relate the loss parameters to antecedent precipitation. The equations were tested on 11 storm rainfall and runoff events on a watershed located in the same region and close agreements were found.     

EXPERIMENTAL MARVIN WINDSHIELD EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION RECORDS IN LEADVILLE,COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of the Leadville, Colorado, precipitation records that include a reported record-breaking storm (and flood) at higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains has indicated that the use of an experimental Marvin windshield (designed to decrease the effects of wind on precipitation-gage catchment of snow during winter) resulted in substantially overregistered summer precipitation for 1919 to 1938. The July monthly precipitation for these years was over-registered by an average of 157 percent of the long-term July monthly precipitation at Leadville. The cause of the overregistration of precipitation was the almost 4-foot-top-diameter cone-shaped windshield that had the effect of “funneling” hail and rain splash into the rain gage. Other nearby precipitation gages, which did not use this Marvin windshield, did not have this trend of increased precipitation for the same period. Streamflow records from the Leadville area also do not indicate an increase in streamfiow from 1919 to 1938. The storm of July 27, 1937, considered one of the few, large, intense rainstorms at higher elevations, had a recorded precipitation of total 4.34 inches (4.26 inches in 1 hour). Streamflow-gaging-station records indicate that only 0.09 inch of storm runoff occurred. Paleoflood investigations of channels in the Leadville area and old newspaper accounts also indicate no substantial flood from this storm. This study indicates that the 1937 storm probably totaled about 1.7 inches of precipitation, much of which occurred as hail.     

A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM PROCEDURE TO QUANTIFY DRAINAGE-BASIN CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: The Basin Characteristics System (BCS) has been developed to quantify characteristics of a drainage basin. The first of four main BCS processing steps creates four geographic information system (GIS) digital maps representing the drainage divide, the drainage network, elevation contours, and the basin length. The drainage divide and basin length are manually digitized from 1:250,000-scale topographic maps. The drainage network is extracted using GIS software from 1:100,000-scale digital line graph data. The elevation contours are generated using GIS software from 1:250,000-scale digital elevation model data. The second and third steps use software developed to assign attributes to specific features in three of the four digital maps and analyze the four maps to quantify 24 morphometric basin characteristics. The fourth step quantifies two climatic characteristics from digitized State maps of precipitation data. Compared to manual methods of measurement, the BCS provides a reduction in the time required to quantify the 26 basin characteristics. Comparison tests indicate the BCS measurements are not significantly different from manual topographic-map measurements for 11 of 12 primary drainage-basin characteristics. Tests indicate the BCS significantly underestimates basin slope. Comparison-measurement differences for basin slope, main channel slope, and basin relief appear to be due to limitations in the digital elevation model data.     

WATER RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

. Water Reservoir Systems were investigated for urban areas as an alternative or complement to storm water drainage systems for flood control which could provide benefits in water conservation and reduce drainage system costs. The study consisted of: (1) gathering of engineering data on the topographical, hydrological, and precipitation characteristics of the area and urban development and economic statistics     

A COMPARISON OF GEOSTATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES USED TO ESTIMATE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT1

ABSTRACT: The need to monitor and forecast water resources accurately, particularly in the western United States, is becoming increasingly critical as the demand for water continues to escalate. Consequently, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed a geostatistical model that is used to obtain areal estimates of snow water equivalent (the thtal water content in all phases of the snowpack), a major source of water in the West. The areal snow water equivalent estimates are used to update the hydrologic simulation models maintained by the NWS and designed to produce extended streamflow forecasts for river systems throughout the United States. An alternative geostatistical technique has been proposed to estimate snow water equivalent. In this research, we describe the two methodologies and compare the accuracy of the estimates produced by each technique. We illustrate their application and compare their estimation accuracy using snow data collected in the North Fork Clearwater River basin in Idaho.     

RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain‐gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive.     

FLOOD-RUNOFF FORECASTING WITH HEC1F1

HEC1F is a computer program for making short- to medium-term forecasts of uncontrolled flood runoff. The program employs unit hydrographs and hydrologic routing to simulate runoff from a subdivided basin. Estimates of future rainfall can be accommodated. Runoff parameters for gaged headwater subbasins can be estimated (optimized) in real time. Blending of calculated with observed hydrographs can be performed. HEC1F is a component of an on-line software system that includes capability for data acquisition and processing, precipitation analysis, streamflow forecasting, reservoir system analysis, and graphical display of data and simulation results. The conceptual framework for HEC1F is described, and application of the program is illustrated.     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LAND USES AND RAINWATER QUALITY IN A SOUTHCENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Spatial and temporal variability in rainfall concentrations of nutrients, major ions, and herbicides was monitored at 7 locations in or near the Conodoguinet Creek watershed in south-central Pennsylvania from 1991.1993. Results were used to (1) compare precipitation quality in forested, agricultural and urban areas, and (2) assess the practicality of using volunteer citizen monitoring in such a study. As indicated in previous studies, sulfate and nitrogen concentrations in precipitation were linked to sample pH. Concentrations of major ions in precipitation appeared to relate more to regional influences rather than local influences. However, concentrations of herbicides in precipitation may have been influenced by both regional and local use which caused compounds like atrazine, deethylatrazine, propazine, simazine, metolachior, alachlor, ametryn, and prometon to be present in detectable concentrations in rainfall. Seasonality was evident in nitrogen, sulfate, pH, and herbicide data and was suggested in calcium, iron, manganese, magnesium, orthophosphate, and chloride data. Agricultural weed control activities were probably responsible for the seasonal pattern in pesticide data which peaked in May and June. Tropical storm Danielle may have caused the apparent seasonal patterns for the other nine parameters. This storm did not follow the typical west to east movement pattern and consequently produced rainfall of relative high quality. A variety of quality assurance checks indicated that trained volunteer citizen monitors were successful participants in this intensive and extensive scientific study, collecting good quality samples in a timely manner. Without this kind of volunteer help, it is extremely difficult to complete studies that require sampling in response to natural events such as rainfall.