The limits to growth argument now

The limits to growth perspective on the global situation is not central in the analyses and policy formations of conventional economists and political leaders. This could be partly due to the fact that the initial statement of the position was open to major criticism, being necessarily based on only indicative evidence in certain key areas. However, the reasons for concluding that industrial-consumer society is encountering serious problems because it is reaching or exceeding limits to growth have become much more convincing in the subsequent 20 years. This paper summarizes the argument in the light of more recently available evidence. If the limits analysis is valid, a number of quite radical implications for economic and social change must be faced.     

Adding public value: The limits of corporate responsibility

It is suggested that natural resource companies undertaking large-scale projects may be expanding the scope of corporate social responsibility by working to enhance the capabilities of the public sector. Naturally companies are concerned to protect their investments, and to ensure their viability. They will therefore invest in necessary infrastructure and facilities of all types, where those are lacking. Such investment often provides benefits to the wider community, but with a few exceptions these are normally incidental byproducts rather than inherent objectives. The motivation for companies to provide resources of all types in order to enhance the capabilities of the public sector to provide public services is usually an expectation is that the tangible benefits will exceed the costs, rather than altruism. One driving force is to secure and maintain a company's social licence to operate. More recently competition from Chinese firms is prompting private sector companies to offer comparable investments in infrastructure. It is unclear whether investment in public sector capabilities is cyclical and liable to cutbacks when market conditions deteriorate. Changing market conditions affect not just corporate willingness to spend but also host countries’ bargaining strengths. In boom periods host countries will be more able to secure straightforward financial benefits through higher tax receipts than when markets are weak. Beyond the specific needs of individual projects corporate policies are strongly influenced by the beliefs of senior managers. External pressures both from international institutions and from NGOs also drive corporate behaviour. The success of investment in public sector capabilities relies in the end on the responses of host countries, and on how closely the objectives and interests of the government are aligned with maximising the nation's long term wealth and welfare. Where they are not corporate resources may be frittered away. There are also questions over the legitimacy of corporate investments, especially by foreign-owned companies. They have a right to offer advice and protect their legitimate interests, but these may not always coincide with those of their host countries. There is a range of questions about the appropriate role of companies, which lead on to feasible and effective ways of improving weak governance.     

Ethical limits to domestication

Through the process of domestication the genetic make-up of farm animals can be changed by means of either selective breeding or genetic engineering. This paper is about the ethical limits to such genetic changes. It is suggested that the ethical significance of domestication has become clear recently in the light of genetic engineering, but that the problem has been there all along. Two ethical approaches to domestication are presented, genetic integrity and animal welfare. It is argued that the welfare approach is superior. Finally, five ethical hypotheses based on the welfare approach are presented.     

The impasse over limits to growth: A suggested course of research

An analysis of the long-term demands, supplies and costs for phosphorus is employed as an example of ‘worst case’ research. Worst case research attempts to bound the problems posed in The Limits to Growth relating to running out of minerals and other raw materials by studying the costs of obtaining such materials from some vast source such as common rock. Since the costs of extracting minerals from these near infinite sources are as high as they would go for thousands of years, they represent the upper limit or worst case outlook, especially since the estimated costs are based on current technology. Recycling, conservation and other possibilities are also examined. At least in certain cases it may be possible from such research to make clearer judgements about the questions of exhaustion posed by the ’limits to growth’ literature.     

Facing limits in oceanic fisheries

Research from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and fishery scientists indicates that the wild catch of fish and other marine life from the oceans will not be able to increase significantly in the future, except through rehabilitation and better management of stocks. Despite the limited potential for bigger catches, fishing fleets have expanded rapidly in recent decades under government subsidies. Fishers now have approximately twice the capacity necessary to make the annual catch from the oceans. The juxtaposition of natural limits and overinvestment has created a crisis situation for the world's fishers, fishing communities, and traditional fishing cultures. Part I of this article (Natural Resources Forum, November 1994) discussed policy responses at the national and international level. How policy makers respond to the overextension of the marine fishing industry will determine the extent of job loss, hunger and dislocation that will result. Part II examines the social aspects of the world's fishing industry, including the demography of fishers, utilization of fisheries products, the relative social contribution of aquaculture and policy responses to overcapacity. Policy makers could enhance the social benefits of marine fisheries – both jobs and food – through a combination of government oversight and community-based management .     

Facing limits in oceanic fisheries

Research from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and fishery scientists indicates that the wild catch offish and other marine life from the oceans will not be able to increase significantly in the future, except through rehabilitation and better management of stocks. Despite the limited potential for bigger catches, fishing fleets have expanded rapidly in recent decades under government subsidies. Fishers now have approximately twice the capacity necessary to make the annual catch from the oceans. The juxtaposition of natural limits and overinvestment has created a crisis situation for the world's fishers, fishing communities and traditional fishing cultures. Part I of this article discusses policy responses at the national and international level. How policy makers respond to the overextension of the marine fishing industry will determine the extent of job loss, hunger and dislocation that will result. Part II, to be published in the Forum's next issue (February 1995), will examine the social aspects of the world's fishing industry, including the demography of fishers, utilization of fisheries products, the relative social contribution of aquaculture and policy responses to overcapacity. Policy makers could enhance the social benefits of marine fisheries — both jobs and food — through a combination of government oversight and community based management.     

Temporal pessimism and spatial optimism in environmental assessments: An 18-nation study

The personal assessments of the current and expected future state of the environment by 3232 community respondents in 18 nations were investigated at the local, national, and global spatial levels. These assessments were compared to a ranking of each country's environmental quality by an expert panel. Temporal pessimism (“things will get worse”) was found in the assessments at all three spatial levels. Spatial optimism bias (“things are better here than there”) was found in the assessments of current environmental conditions in 15 of 18 countries, but not in the assessments of the future. All countries except one exhibited temporal pessimism, but significant differences between them were common. Evaluations of current environmental conditions also differed by country. Citizens' assessments of current conditions, and the degree of comparative optimism, were strongly correlated with the expert panel's assessments of national environmental quality. Aside from the value of understanding global trends in environmental assessments, the results have important implications for environmental policy and risk management strategies.     

Establishment of permit limits for mill effluent

Various governmental regulatory agencies are responsible for establishing regulations on the discharge of chlorinated organic compounds from pulp and paper mills. The procedures for setting permit limits are the basic topic of this article. Different methods of determining permit limits are set forth and discussed in a number of references, including documents of the Environmental Protection Agency. This paper discusses in detail the application of one particular methodology—the lognormal model approach. In this paper we utilize a real data set and include the necessary calculations required to set up permit limits. The basic tenets of the permit process are such that if limits are set too low, operators who are in full regulatory compliance will still be frequently cited, and if limits are set too high, operators who are not in compliance will seldom if ever be cited. Thus there is a great need for these effluent limits to be determined with great care, both to protect the environment receiving the wastewater and the industry producing the wastewater.     

The social consequences of a natural/technological disaster: evidence from Louisiana and Mississippi

Disaster scholarship shows that people’s relationships stay the same or improve after natural disasters and become worse after technological, or human-induced, events. Using the case of Katrina, this research explores what happens to people’s relationships after a disaster that began with a catastrophic natural event and was followed by numerous failures in the way human institutions responded to the event. Through an analysis of survey data collected in devastated areas of Louisiana and Mississippi in 2008, this study tests how consequences of both natural (damage to the home and having to leave the home) and technological events (distrust in government, stress, concern about toxic exposure, and pursuing litigation) affect people’s relationships with family members and community groups. Damage to the home, distrust in government, and the pursuit of litigation lead to declines in people’s relationships. These experiences are more likely to change intimate relationships (with family) than relationships in the broader community. The relevance that these findings have for creating better social justice outcomes after future disasters is discussed.     

Are there limits to growth? The need for a transition to a solar-based economy

The idea of limits to growth has, understandably, achieved notoriety since the days of Malthus and, more recently, the Club of Rome. However, there must be some limits to the ability of the earth to sustain a growing population. Fortunately, population models suggest that the world's population will probably level out at about two to three times the present numbers over the next hundred years. The question is whether the earth's resources are sufficient to sustain that population at a high standard of living for all. In this the key issue is energy. It is clear that present trends in energy consumption, especially oil, cannot be sustained much longer. Regardless of this, however, prudence demands a drastic reduction in fossil fuel consumption, in view of the possibility of global warming. It can be shown that, combined with greatly improved energy efficiency, a transition to a solar (renewable) energy based economy, capable of sustaining the anticipated growth in the world economy, is possible, but the constraints are extremely tight .     

The paradox of the modernisation of urban water systems in Europe: Intrinsic institutional limits for sustainability

This article assesses the sustainability potential of the urban water systems in Europe (UWSE) following their modernisation. A decade after implementation and close to the first deadlines, modernisation efforts seem to have not been (totally) successful. This article examines the ability of governance to achieve sustainability and poses the question of how modernisation develops a particular “terrain” more or less favourable to sustainability. We use the Institutional resource regimes framework which has been dedicated to determining the potential for sustainability of natural resources regulation. Conclusions show that the modernisation of UWSEs offers a path for progress which though necessary is insufficient due to a lack of coherence between policy design and the regulatory system. Globally, the development of regulation goes hand in hand with increasing inconsistencies that reduce the efficiency of the reform.     

Disentangling technological innovations: a micro-econometric analysis of their determinants

On the basis of a unique firm-level dataset from the German manufacturing sector, this paper empirically examines the determinants of environmental and non-environmental product and process innovations. The micro-econometric analysis with multivariate probit models points to an extremely high relevance of R&D activities for all technological innovation types, as well as to the relevance of a few market pull factors. The estimation results additionally reveal the importance of organisational measures for environmental product and process innovations. In this regard, not only certified environmental management systems, but also specific process- and product-related environmental organisational measures and even general organisational measures, such as the certification of a quality management system according to ISO 9001, play a crucial role. The estimation results therefore suggest the encouragement of firm-internal R&D activities and organisational measures by (environmental) policy in order to stimulate environmental technological innovations, which are able to both limit the environmental burden and contribute to the technological modernisation of the economy.     

Corporate occupational exposure limits: An example of a strategy

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) developed by authorities play a key role in the implementation of programs to protect workers against hazardous chemicals. Unfortunately, many hazardous substances do not have OELs or the OEL could be outdated. To assure the health of the workers, it is therefore useful for companies to develop corporate OELs. An inhouse strategy will be presented hereafter. Expertise in toxicology, industrial hygiene, and occupational health should be available within the company and clear selection criteria for substances are needed. A corporate OEL is only developed for hazardous substances (e.g., carcinogenic or reprotoxic) with a high potential for worker exposure when an appropriate national OEL or threshold limit value is not available. The methodology to calculate corporate OELs is based on the existing methods for national or community OELs and also on the guidance from the European Union's (EU) regulation on the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). For carcinogenic substances with a nonthreshold mode of action, there is always a residual chance that a cancer develops even when the exposure of workers is low. To establish an OEL for these substances, the “German traffic light model” is recommended. It is pragmatic, defines an unacceptable, tolerable, and acceptable risk level when workers are exposed to these substances, and determines risk management for exposure reduction. Overall, the professional practice to develop OELs is a good example of corporate leadership to proactively protect the health of workers.     

Environmental technological education in a developing country—Libya

Summary The environmental education needs of a currently wealthy developing country, Libya, are outlined. Because of specific local requirements, the data presented clearly shows how such educational requirements differ in many respects from the various Western-style environmental sciences curricula. The aim is to produce graduates capable of comprehending environmental problems as they arise in the different regions of Libya. This involves not only dealing with the effects of new developments but also with peoples who must adapt to new life-styles.Since most of what has to be learned is communicated originally in English to Arabic-speaking students via lectures, visits and books, special emphasis is laid upon the added importance oflocally produced bilingual audio-visual teaching aids supported by spoken commentaries, printed texts and glossaries of technical terms used in both languages. A technique for producing such aids has been evolved at the Higher Institute of Technology, Brack, Libya.     

Acid deposition in aquatic ecosystems: Setting limits empirically

The problem of acid deposition and its harmful effects on aquatic ecosystems has created a new branch of science that is called upon to provide the knowledge on which legislative controls can be based. However, because of the nature of existing legislation, which requires evidence of cause and effect between industrial emissions and pollution, and because of science's inability to provide this information over the short term, considerable controversy has arisen about whether sufficient information exists to warrant control measures at this time. Among those who advocate controls, there is genuine divergence of opinion about how stringent the controls must be to achieve any desired level of protection.The controversy has led to an impasse between the scientific and political participants, which is reflected in the slow pace of progress toward an effective management strategy. Resolution of the impasse, at least in the short term, may demand that science and politics rely on empirical models rather than explanatory ones. The empirical model, which is the major proposal in this article, integrates all of the major variables and many of the minor ones, and constructs a three-dimensionally curved surface capable of representing the status of any waterbody subjected to the effects of acid deposition. When suitably calibrated—a process involving the integration of knowledge and data from aquatic biology, geochemistry, meteorology, and limnology—it can be used to depict limits to the rate of acid deposition required for any level of environmental protection. Because it can generate a pictorial display of the effects of management decisions and legislative controls, the model might serve as a basis for enhancing the quality of communication among all the scientific and political participants and help to resolve many of their controversies.     

High biomass removal limits carbon sequestration potential of mature temperate pastures

Decades of plowing have depleted organic C stocks in many agricultural soils. Conversion of plowed fields to pasture has the potential to reverse this process, recapturing organic matter that was lost under more intensive cropping systems. Temperate pastures in the northeast USA are highly productive and could act as significant C sinks. However, such pastures have relatively high biomass removal as hay or through consumption by grazing animals. In addition, the ability to sequester C decreases over time as previously depleted stocks are replenished and the soil returns to equilibrium conditions. The objective of this research was to use eddy covariance systems to quantify CO(2) fluxes over two fields in central Pennsylvania that had been managed as pastures for at least 35 yr. Net ecosystem exchange measurements averaged over 8 site-years suggested that the pastures were acting as small net C sinks of 19 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (positive values indicate uptake). However, when biomass removal and manure deposition were included to calculate net biome productivity, the pastures were a net source of -81 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (negative values indicate loss to the atmosphere). Manure generated from the hay that was consumed off site averaged 18 g C m(-2) yr(-1). Returning that manure to the pastures would have only partially replenished the lost C, and the pastures would have remained net C sources. Heavy use of the biomass produced on these mature pastures prevented them from acting as C sinks.     

Calculating the detection limits of chamber-based soil greenhouse gas flux measurements

Renewed interest in quantifying greenhouse gas emissions from soil has led to an increase in the application of chamber-based flux measurement techniques. Despite the apparent conceptual simplicity of chamber-based methods, nuances in chamber design, deployment, and data analyses can have marked effects on the quality of the flux data derived. In many cases, fluxes are calculated from chamber headspace vs. time series consisting of three or four data points. Several mathematical techniques have been used to calculate a soil gas flux from time course data. This paper explores the influences of sampling and analytical variability associated with trace gas concentration quantification on the flux estimated by linear and nonlinear models. We used Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the minimum detectable fluxes (α = 0.05) of linear regression (LR), the Hutchinson/Mosier (H/M) method, the quadratic method (Quad), the revised H/M (HMR) model, and restricted versions of the Quad and H/M methods over a range of analytical precisions and chamber deployment times (DT) for data sets consisting of three or four time points. We found that LR had the smallest detection limit thresholds and was the least sensitive to analytical precision and chamber deployment time. The HMR model had the highest detection limits and was most sensitive to analytical precision and chamber deployment time. Equations were developed that enable the calculation of flux detection limits of any gas species if analytical precision, chamber deployment time, and ambient concentration of the gas species are known.     

Estimating soil phosphorus requirements and limits from oxalate extract data

Excessive fertilizer and manure phosphorus (P) inputs to soils elevates P in soil solution and surface runoff, which can lead to freshwater eutrophication. Runoff P can be related to soil test P and P sorption saturation, but these approaches are restricted to a limited range of soil types or are difficult to determine on a routine basis. The purpose of this study was to determine whether easily measurable soil characteristics were related to the soil phosphorus requirements (P(req), the amount of P sorbed at a particular solution P level). The P(req) was determined for 18 chemically diverse soils from sorption isotherm data (corrected for native sorbed P) and was found to be highly correlated to the sum of oxalate-extractable Al and Fe (R2 > 0.90). Native sorbed P, also determined from oxalate extraction, was subtracted from the P(req) to determine soil phosphorus limits (PL, the amount of P that can be added to soil to reach P(req)). Using this approach, the PL to reach 0.2 mg P L(-1) in solution ranged between -92 and 253 mg P kg(-1). Negative values identified soils with surplus P, while positive values showed soils with P deficiency. The results showed that P, Al, and Fe in oxalate extracts of soils held promise for determining PL to reach up to 10 mg P L(-1) in solution (leading to potential runoff from many soils). The soil oxalate extraction test could be integrated into existing best management practices for improving soil fertility and protecting water quality.