基于动态贝叶斯网络的石化装置火灾事故动态风险分析

为揭示石油炼化装置事故风险动态特性和事故情景演变路径,在对石化装置进行风险因素分析的基础上构建石化装置火灾事故故障树,基于贝叶斯网络非常规突发事故的演变过程,构建情景演变下的动态贝叶斯网络模型,在综合考虑应急措施的基础上,利用MATLAB软件和联合概率公式计算出各种事故场景的状态概率.以丙烯精馏装置火灾事故为例,结果表...     

基于贝叶斯网络的我国电网安全风险关联分析

为了有效识别电网运行的关键风险要素,基于典型电网企业2014-2019年代表性事故案例,采用贝叶斯网络的机器学习方法分别构建了电网事故、设备事故及人身事故致因的贝叶斯网络模型,分析各风险因素对事故的影响程度并反向诊断事故发生的关键诱因.结果表明:1)3种贝叶斯网络模型预测精度分别达到87.85％、89.24％、96.88％;2)不同类型事故的关键风险因素存在差异,但人因仍是主要致因.电网事故的关键影响因素为巡检不到位、检修质量不良和验收不合格;设备事故的关键风险因素为处理不当、巡检不到位和施工质量不良;人身事故的关键风险因素为安全意识缺乏、施工质量不良、监护不到位和验收不合格.最后,对电网系统安全运行提出了针对性建议.     

基于贝叶斯网络的可控飞行撞地事故原因分析方法

由可控飞行撞地造成的死亡人数在民航运输飞行事故中占第1位,因而研究可控飞行撞地的原因并采取预防措施对保障飞行安全有重要意义.介绍了事故树模型和贝叶斯网络之间的内在转换关系,采用事故树分析了可控飞行撞地事故发生的主要原因是人为因素和技术因素,其中人为因素包括机组、管制员和维修人员的失误,技术因素包括燃油重量、风速风向、能见度、飞机速度、偏离航线等,最后将事故树转化为贝叶斯网络.以人为因素中的机组人员失误为例,用贝叶斯网络模型对失误原因进行了分析,并计算出机组人员失误概率.     

基于贝叶斯网的交通事故机理分析

针对道路交通事故的形成机理进行定性、定量研究,根据我国道路交通事故记录数据特征,应用贝叶斯网对事故发生概率进行定量分析.引入"驾驶员紧张度"和"道路线形合理度"两个隐节点,建立了事故分析的贝叶斯网多层隐类模型,采用最大似然估计方法确定了模型的边缘概率和条件概率.将贝叶斯网模型应用于国道104二级公路(K1310+000～K1330+000)的事故分析中,运用贝叶斯网分析软件包Netica对其历史事故记录数据进行分析.结果表明: 贝叶斯网不仅可以定量计算某种道路交通状态下的事故发生概率,而且可以找出影响事故概率的关键原因和最不利状态组合(事故概率最大时的道路交通状态).     

A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height

This article analyses, using Bayesian networks, the circumstances surrounding workplace tasks performed using auxiliary equipment (ladders, scaffolding, etc.) that may result in falls. The information source was a survey of employees working at a height. We were able to determine the usefulness of this approach – innovative in the accident research field – in identifying the causes that have the greatest bearing on accidents involving auxiliary equipment: in these cases, the adoption of incorrect postures during work and a worker’s inadequate knowledge of safety regulations. Likewise, the duration of tasks was also associated with both these variables, and therefore, with the accident rate. Bayesian networks also enable dependency relationships to be established between the different causes of accidents. This information – which is not usually furnished by conventional statistical methods applied in the field of labour risk prevention – allow a causality model to be defined for workplace accidents in a more realistic way. With this statistic tool, the expert is also provided with useful information that can be input to a management model for labour risk prevention.     

基于前导事件和贝叶斯网络的储罐溢油动态风险评价

部分高风险危化品企业搬迁改造困难重重,为控制风险、保护周围人民生命和财产安全,有必要建立动态风险评价系统,对事故发生概率进行监控和预测。采用贝叶斯网络对事故发生概率进行定量分析。先在利用蝴蝶结模型辨识事故原因和后果的基础上,将其转化为贝叶斯网络模型;再导入"前导事件"信息和先验概率推导后验事故发生概率,量化分析事故发生随时间的变化概率;最后,以储罐溢流场景为例进行动态风险计算,结果表明,随化工装置生产时间和"前导事件"增长,元件失效概率和事故风险呈显著增长趋势。因此建议企业应重视"前导事件"并采取措施减少"前导事件",如优化检维修方案、及时更换关键部件、进行全面的事故调查等。     

Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空维修人因可靠性分析

根据维修人为因素分析和分类扩展系统的框架选取影响因素,在航空维修领域应用贝叶斯网络进行人因可靠性分析,建立飞机维修效能模型,直观地表示影响因素与维修效能之间的关系。同时以目视检测为例,结合专家意见确定随机影响因素,通过专家访谈、事故报告、调查问卷、操作记录等渠道获取数据,得出条件概率表,进而建立目视检测表现模型,展示贝叶斯网络的建模流程。案例研究结果表明,组织文化、视觉信息、设备、疲劳、检测距离等因素对目视检测表现的影响非常显著,欲改善目视检测表现,必须对多影响因素进行综合管理。     

工艺安全管理系统中的工艺危害分析方法比较

简要介绍了工艺安全管理系统,其中工艺危害分析是工艺安全管理系统中的核心要素。对通常采用的故障假设/检查表、故障类型及影响分析、事故树分析、危险与可操作性研究、保护层分析五种分析方法进行了比较,得出了它们的优点、缺点、适用范围及应用时机。故障假设/检查表分析法比较容易使用,适用于工艺的初次评估;故障类型及影响分析、事故树分析适用于高危险性工艺中的工段、组件或单元操作的分析;危险与可操作性研究可以非常系统、全面的对工艺进行分析,是最有效的工艺危害分析方法。保护层分析方法是一种半定量的风险评价方法,它通过分析系统中各个防护层的失效概率来评估潜在事故的危险性,并与可接受标准进行比较,从而实现对防护系统防护性能的判断。通过对分析方法的比较可以指导化工企业选用合适的分析方法来进行工艺危害分析。     

Incorporating the 2007 recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection into the J-value analysis of nuclear safety systems

The newly released findings by the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) led to a review of the lifetime risk coefficients for fatal cancer used in J-value analysis of nuclear safety systems. The change in life expectancy a safety system brings about by averting a radiation exposure needs to be estimated in order to calculate the safety system's J-value, and this is done following the ICRP's practice of using risk coefficients that are uniform across both genders and all ages in the defined population group (either workers or the general population). The ICRP predicted uniformly lower radiation risks in 2007 than in 1990 on a like-for-like basis, but it was found that the ICRP's new risk coefficients needed to be multiplied by a compensating factor specific to each population when used in calculating the radiation-induced change in life expectancy. Incorporating the new compensating factor leads to a decrease in the J-value calculated of about 5% for workers and 15% for the general population compared with earlier, reported results. These adjustments are not large compared with the uncertainties associated with radiation harm and the economics of installing a safety system, but will strengthen slightly the case for spending on a nuclear safety measure.     

基于社会网络分析法的液化石油气灌装站安全评价

为客观反映液化石油气灌(LPG)装站整体安全生产状况,用社会网络分析法研究灌装站安全评价标准。基于某市区域内100家LPG灌装站安全评价现场检查数据,借助UCINET软件对安全评价指标进行结点中心度、接近中心度和间距中心度分析,探究安全评价指标的重要度、紧密度以及控制、影响其他评价指标的程度,确定14项中心度较高的核心评价指标及其对应的灌装站的潜在安全隐患,并与实际统计数据进行了对比。结果表明,该方法分析结果与灌装站实际情况相符。     

悬浮法氯乙烯聚合工艺的风险分析及安全技术

悬浮法聚合氯乙烯生产过程的主要风险是氯乙烯的"暴聚"事故和氯乙烯泄漏事故.聚合反应散热不足,温度过高导致"暴聚"事故.易燃易爆有毒的氯乙烯泄漏可能引发氯乙烯蒸汽云爆炸和火球(BLEVE)事故.以某PVC化工厂氯乙烯聚合釜生产为例,定量计算氯乙烯小孔泄漏量、蒸汽云及BLEVE火球的事故伤害与破坏后果.提出避免导致"暴聚"事故3种安全技术措施:良好的聚合釜反应散热降温;足够的搅拌强度和防止"粘釜"等.防止引发氯乙烯泄漏的3种途径为反应釜轴封、超压泄压时跑料和压力容器及管道的防泄漏技术.     

基于模糊网络分析的民航机务安全评价

机务维修是保障航空器安全运行的重要工作.针对现行航空公司机务维修系统的安全评估方法不完备性问题,通过对机务工作业务模块的分析,结合天津某航空公司机务维修部门近7年来的不安全事件统计,从人-机-环-管四个方面筛选并建立了19个评价指标,运用ANP(analysis net process)方法结合三角模糊函数对机务系统的安全水平进行定量分析,得出影响机务维修安全的前8位指标——检查监督,维修态度,操作技能,文化建设、价值观,硬件软件技术,性能标准,人际关系.最终提出相关的可行性建议.     

The history of process safety

It is my pleasure to present these thoughts on the history of process safety and my involvement in the development of that history.     

基于贝叶斯网络的海盗劫持风险评估

为保障船舶运行安全,维护海上运输通道安全稳定,引入贝叶斯网络对全球海盗劫持风险进行了评估.基于贝叶斯网络对海盗劫持风险概率进行评估,利用风险矩阵法对海盗劫持风险进行综合评估,最后针对风险结果进行风险管理分析.结果表明,西非几内亚湾海域盗劫持风险为中等风险,须重点防范.海盗登船成功、反海盗登船措施及船舶自身因素是影响该区域海盗劫持事件最为关键的风险因素,从而为实施相应的风险管理举措提供了理论依据.     

基于逻辑树和贝叶斯网络的海洋平台火灾概率分析

火灾概率分析是海洋平台火灾定量风险评估的重要组成部分,考虑到传统事故树和事件树方法存在一定的局限性,提出了基于逻辑树和贝叶斯网络的火灾概率分析模型。首先采用数理统计方法对墨西哥湾地区2 837起火灾事故进行统计分析,依据事故情况构建逻辑树,然后将逻辑树转化为贝叶斯网络,根据历史数据确定贝叶斯网络各节点的先验概率和条件概率。结果表明:海洋平台火灾事故是设备、人因和组织管理多因素耦合作用的结果;基于贝叶斯网络模型得到海洋平台火灾概率约为1.0×10~(-5),为海洋平台火灾定量风险评估提供了基础数据;由贝叶斯网络模型分析得出,人因操作失误与缺乏作业安全分析的后验概率分别达到0.471和0.119,表明人因组织因素对海洋平台火灾事故具有重要影响。     

Possibilistic regression analysis of influential factors for occupational health and safety management systems

The code of occupational health and safety (OHS) is an influential regulation to improve the on-the-job safety of employees. A number of factors influence the planning and implementation of OHS management systems (OHSMS). The evaluation of OHSMS practice is the most important component when forming a health and safety environmental policy for employees. The objective of this research is to develop an intelligent data analysis (IDA) in which possibilistic regression being endowed with a convex hull approach is used to support the analysis of essential factors that influence OHSMS. Given such subjective terms, the obtained samples can be conveniently regarded as fuzzy input/output data represented by membership functions. The study offers this vehicle of intelligent data analysis as an alternative to evaluate the influential factors in a successful implementation of OHS policies and in this way decrease an overall computational effort. The obtained results show that several related OHSMS influential factors need to be carefully considered to facilitate a successful implementation of the OHSMS procedure.     

基于集对分析的石化企业安全投资状况动态评价

石油化工企业的安全事故频发和职业危害严重,不仅造成重大经济损失,而且对社会造成了不良影响,不合理的安全投资是造成这种状况的主要原因之一,对企业现有安全投资状况进行评价是合理进行安全投资的前提和基础。本文针对石油化工企业安全投资评价中诸多不确定性因素和动态特征进行分析,运用集对分析和马尔可夫链理论,建立了基于集对分析石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价模型,为安全投资状况评价工作提供了一个新方法。以某石油化工企业为例,通过对该企业2006-2009年这四年安全投资状况进行动态评价分析,并预测出2010年该企业的安全投资状况。评价结果表明,将集对分析和马尔可夫链理论用于石化企业安全投资状况的动态评价与预测,起到了非常好的效果,能够为企业科学合理地作出正确决策提供理论依据。