化工储罐区空袭次生灾害危险性评价研究

根据化工储罐区及其遭空袭次生灾害的特点,以空袭次生灾害的影响范围作为危险性评价的标准,对化工储罐区的空袭次生灾害进行危险性评价。指出储罐遭空袭后的3种毁伤方式;给出储罐遭空袭发生的次生灾害及其扩散的形式与后果;阐述了化工储罐区空袭次生灾害的成灾机理;分别提出热辐射伤害、冲击波伤害和有毒有害物质扩散的危险性评价方法。以池火灾为例,建立了池火灾的危险性评价模型;论述了池火灾危险性评价的具体流程,并进行了案例分析,根据计算结果提出了相应的减灾对策。笔者认为,化工储罐区遭空袭后的次生灾害的危险性评价具有现实意义,对于化工园区、石化厂、危化品仓库等突发安全事故产生次生灾害的危险性评价同样具有重要的参考价值。     

GIS在巨灾保险风险管理中的应用研究

近年来 ,巨灾的不断发生 ,使得许多保险和再保险公司遭受巨大赔偿 ,乃至可能造成破产。究其原因 ,除了人们对巨灾自身难以抗拒这一客观原因外 ,保险企业对巨灾保险的风险管理方法、技术和手段的不适也是一个很重要的因素。为此 ,笔者分析了利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理的优越性 ,并就GIS在巨灾保险的信息管理、风险累积预测和风险管理专家系统中所起的作用和发挥的功能分别进行了探讨。利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理 ,不仅可以了解巨灾的发生和变化规律 ,进行危险性区域和费率区域的划分 ,而且可以优化保险和再保险方案 ,并通过专家系统设计出符合实用灾情的风险管理及保险管理的对策 ,对保险公司的巨灾保险风险管理起到了重要的指导作用。     

深埋长隧道施工地质灾害风险模糊层次评价

地质灾害是影响深埋长隧道安全施工的重要因素,将综合超前地质预报和模糊层次评价相结合,建立深埋长隧道地质灾害风险预测体系。首先对超前地质预报进行了研究并建立综合超前地质预报体系,以该体系为指导对隧道进行地质预报,了解掌子面前方的地质信息。其次在地质预报基础上作隧道施工地质灾害风险模糊层次评价,对隧道施工中可能遇到的地质灾害及整体风险程度进行评估。最后以米仓山隧道为工程背景,对建立的地质灾害风险预测体系进行了实践,得到里程段内发生涌水突泥、塌方、大变形及岩爆等地质灾害的风险等级,以及地质灾害整体综合评价风险等级。     

化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法

为有效评估地震灾害与化工园区工业事故的耦合风险,在分析地震灾害作用于化工园区致灾特征的基础上,理清化工园区的主要承灾体类型,辨识出地震破坏承灾体单元后引发的火灾、爆炸、中毒等工业事故的主要影响因素,采用层次分析法(AHP),提出综合考虑地震灾害与工业事故耦合作用的Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法。该方法以化工园区企业为评估单位,根据评估结果划定企业Na-Tech事件风险等级,并将此方法应用于某化工园区企业的风险评估。结果表明:该方法可操作性强,计算所需数据量小,且能有效反映地震Na-Tech事件风险特点。     

Learning from Tabasco’s floods by applying MORT

Natural disasters are increasing alarmingly worldwide in recent years. They have killed millions of people, and adversely affected the life of at least one billion people. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. In 2007, the state of Tabasco, Mexico, was flooded and it is believed that al least one million people were left homeless. The paper addresses the following question: what can be learnt from flood disasters? The paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Tabasco’s flooding by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT). The MORT technique may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex ‘fault-tree’ model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. One of the key conclusions of the present analysis is that the approach to decision making in relation ‘flood management’ at the time of the disaster has not been based explicitly on ‘flood risk assessment’. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Tabasco’s flooding can be mitigated in the future.     

泥石流灾害风险评价方法及其应用研究

探讨泥石流灾害风险评价的理论和方法;利用已有的泥石流灾害资料,建立泥石流风险评价体系和实施流程;提出风险评价的定量计算方法;结合遥感和地理信息系统技术,完成了云南省昆明市东川区泥石流灾害的定量风险评价。研究结果与泥石流实际分布和调查资料基本一致,表明所提出的泥石流灾害风险评价的理论与方法具有一定的理论价值和现实意义,可以为泥石流灾害风险评价和防灾减灾管理提供有益的科学依据。     

基于层次分析-模糊综合评价的油库衍生灾害分级研究

为科学合理地评估油库对公共体系的潜在危害,提高储运设施安全管理水平,基于现有灾害及风险评价理论,构建了油库衍生灾害分级指标体系并建立了油库衍生灾害等级评定模型。油库衍生灾害分级指标体系综合考虑了衍生灾害发生的可能性水平、衍生灾害后果的严重性、企业隐患控制与应急能力、油库所在地区承灾体敏感性与脆弱性4个方面,包括6个一级指标及18个二级指标。油库衍生灾害等级评定模型以模糊综合评价的基本理论为基础,将油库衍生灾害划分为5个等级。该分级模型采用层次分析法计算各级指标权重,并依据现行法律法规计算一级模糊综合评价中各单项指标隶属度。将该模型应用于我国某原油库,根据模型计算结果,该原油库衍生灾害等级为四级,验证了该模型的可行性。     

深部开采煤岩瓦斯动力灾害统一发生机制及监测技术

为研究深部开采冲击地压、煤与瓦斯突出及其复合动力灾害的发生机制,并对其进行有效监测预警,运用事故调研、理论分析、工程实践等方法,分析了我国煤岩瓦斯动力灾害的影响因素,研究了其发生的统一机制和监测技术。结果表明:煤岩瓦斯动力灾害是冲击、突出共性因素和个性因素共同影响下的结果;根据灾害发生过程中能量释放的主体和形式,将煤岩瓦斯动力灾害分为冲击地压、煤与瓦斯突出、冲击-突出型复合动力灾害、突出-冲击型复合动力灾害4种类型;采用多层次统一监测模式,可对深井煤岩瓦斯动力灾害进行全方位连续的统一监测。最后将研究成果应用于煤矿现场实例,效果良好。     

1993-2003年特大火灾发生规律、特征及原因分析

火灾作为一种灾害现象,其发生与发展具有随机性和确定性的双重特性.火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的一种有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的原始火灾资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计性规律.本文从1993-2003年我国火灾形势着手,联系火灾形势发展过程中的火灾起数、火灾中人员伤亡和直接财产损失等大量数据,重点分析了特大火灾的原因及类别特征,总结了特大火灾发生发展的规律和趋势,为正确认识和预测我国火灾形势、做好特大火灾的预防工作提供了参考.     

我国煤炭行业潜在危机与现实矿难的成因和对策

针对我国煤炭行业矿难频发,尚未有效遏制的现状,从对行业现实矿难的统计数据和潜在危机的现象分析入手,运用系统理论的观点,根据煤炭行业的复杂系统特征进一步分析危机和矿难形成的原因和机理。笔者认为,煤炭系统的危机和矿难是由系统运行过程中的矛盾和风险演变而来的,行业内部结构失衡是危机形成的内在因素,造成系统处于病态运行状态、危机潜伏;能源需求的非理性是危机形成的外部因素,造成系统病态运行加剧、危机加重;矿难则是处于危机状态的煤炭系统运行过程中剧烈波动而产生的突发危机事件。根据分析和研究所得的结论,提出必须纳入煤炭内部系统、纳入国家能源系统和宏观经济系统中,对煤炭行业危机和矿难进行多层次宏观层面的调控并采取新的对策。     

基于秩和比法的突发事件固有风险水平评估

建立突发事件固有风险指标框架,定量评估突发事件固有风险水平。选择自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件、社会安全事件等四大类突发事件造成的死亡人数和经济损失方面的量化指标,采用秩和比法计算全国31省市区的突发事件相对风险水平,经滑动平均处理后,得到各地突发事件固有风险指数。求解各地突发事件固有风险指数与其累积频率对应的概率单位值的回归方程,将其排序分档,可把全国分为高风险、较高风险、一般风险和低风险水平等四类地区。结果表明我国各地区突发事件固有风险水平存在一定的差异,总体呈西高东低分布。突发事件固有风险指数可定量评估各地区的突发事件固有风险水平,突发事件固有风险指标设置合理、方法可行。     

贵州省主要地质灾害危险度区划研究

结合贵州省地理环境和地质灾害特征,选择地形地貌、工程地质岩组、断裂构造作用、河流切割程度、年均降雨量及历史地质灾害分布密度等6个一级区划指标和24个二级区划指标,采用黄金分割法确定各指标的权重;应用综合分析的因子叠加法,按4级危险度分区标准,对贵州省主要地质灾害危险度进行区划。区划结果包括:极高危险区约3.22×104km2;高危险区约0.85×104km2;中危险区约2.99×104km2;低危险区约10.56×104km2。采用离散多态系统可靠度的矩阵分析法,认为贵州主要地质灾害发生的危险性主要处在中危险区。     

Fire and explosion disasters occurred due to the Great East Japan Earthquake (March 11, 2011)

The Great East Japan Earthquake (magnitude 9.0 Mw: the moment magnitude scale, based on the seismic moment of the earthquake) occurred at 14:46, March 11, 2011. It triggered huge tsunami waves (seismic sea waves) that reached heights of up to about 20 m. In this paper, the fire and explosion disasters occurred due to the Great East Japan Earthquake are reported shortly. Some fires occurred in seacoast areas after tsunami attacks and some of them were spreading very widely to the tsunami flooded areas. It is important to study the mechanisms of such fires (tsunami fires) for preparing huge tsunami. After the earthquake, a very severe accident happened in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Three reactors experienced full meltdown. During this disaster, hydrogen explosions occurred and made the situation more serious. It has to be realized once again that the countermeasures for hydrogen explosions is indispensable. Also Large scale BLEVEs (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosions) happened at LPG storage area in an oil refinery in Chiba Prefecture. This accident started from the falling down of an LPG storage tank by earthquake motions. The tank was heavier than usual, as it was filled with water (1.7 times heavier than LPG) for periodic inspection. Considering these disasters, we have to think about how we prepare the accident of low probability and of very severe consequence. Recently, the risk based approach is widely utilized. However, for such disasters it seems not enough to perform safety management only by risk based approach. Not only probabilistic approach (Risk), but also deterministic approach (Emergency plan, Mitigation technique) should be taken in account.     

Major accidents in process industries and an analysis of causes and consequences

This paper briefly recapitulates some of the major accidents in chemical process industries which occurred during 1926–1997. These case studies have been analysed with a view to understand the damage potential of various types of accidents, and the common causes or errors which have led to disasters. An analysis of different types of accidental events such as fire, explosion and toxic release has also been done to assess the damage potential of such events. It is revealed that vapour cloud explosion (VCE) poses the greatest risk of damage. The study highlights the need for risk assessment in chemical process industries.     

我国城市灾害风险应对现状及对策研究

阐述了城市灾害的分类;从城市灾害预防与控制,应急反应与救援等方面分析我国在城市灾害风险控制与应对上的不足;提出8个方面的对策。该对策研究包括:建立城市安全规划、风险防范和危机管理法律体系;实施城市防灾减灾规划并融入城市规划中;完善城市灾害风险决策支持系统和信息管理系统;实行安全规划风险评价机制;加快防灾减灾综合管理机构建设;建立科学、完善的应急救援体系;加强安全教育和防灾减灾宣传;加强城市安全科学研究与交流。该研究结果对如何提高我国城市灾害风险预防与控制能力及应急救援水平具有重要的借鉴和指导作用。     

基于风险和应急准备能力评估的 应急救援能力建设

为提升我国应对综合自然灾害的应急响应与救援能力,笔者首先指出我国目前在应急准备能力评估和应急救援能力建设方面存在的主要问题;然后以地震为例,提出应急准备能力评估的指标体系框架、指标分类及评价方法,通过评估找出现存能力差距,开展基于风险评估和应急准备能力评估的应对综合自然灾害的救援能力建设。研究表明:开展基于风险和应急准备能力评估的救援能力建设能实现重特大自然灾害快速有效响应与指挥调度能力,极大提升我国重特大自然灾害的应对能力。     

尾矿库区域预警指标体系的建立

从尾矿库本身安全、地质条件、气象条件、人为因素等4个方面分析了尾矿库灾害的影响因素;根据预警指标选取的原则,结合尾矿库事故对下游人员和财产的影响,建立了尾矿库区域预警指标体系;选取尾矿库危险等级、地形坡度、地质构造及条件、最新日雨量、5日累积雨量、采矿现象、爆破现象、下游人数、下游财产等9个指标作为尾矿库区域预警指标;根据尾矿库预警级别,确定了尾矿库预警指标的取值范围。尾矿库区域预警指标体系建立为尾矿库的区域预警提供了基础依据。     

2004年我国事故与灾害状况综述

2004年我国共发生各类事故803 571起,死亡136 755人.文中给出了这些安全生产事故及自然灾害中火灾(城乡火灾、森林火灾、草原火灾)、气象灾害(沙尘天气、干旱、暴雨洪涝、夏季高温等)、农业自然灾害(干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冻害)、海洋灾害(风暴潮、赤潮、海浪、海冰、溢油)、地质灾害(地震、泥石流)以及药物不良反应的分类总结和具体评述.     

玉溪市电网遭受地质灾害的风险分析

玉溪市电网覆盖比较广泛,且有高压输电线分布于地质灾害比较严重的地区,通过对地质灾害发生概率的计算和电网受到损害的概率计算,再对电网所遭受的事故损失进行综合评估来分析玉溪电网的风险程度。     

Research on flood risk analysis and evaluation method based on variable fuzzy sets and information diffusion

Floods have become increasingly alarming worldwide. Flood risk management in terms of assessing disaster risk properly is a great challenge that society faces today. Natural disaster risk analysis is typically beset with issues such as imprecision, uncertainty, and partial truth. There are two basic forms of uncertainty related to natural disaster risk assessment, namely, randomness caused by inherent stochastic variability and fuzziness due to macroscopic grad and incomplete knowledge sample. However, the traditional probability statistical method ignores the fuzziness of risk assessment with incomplete data sets and requires a large sample size of data. The fuzzy set methodology is introduced in the area of disaster risk assessment to improve probability estimation. The purpose of the current study is to establish a fuzzy model to evaluate flood risk with incomplete data sets. The present paper puts forward a composite method based on variable fuzzy sets and information diffusion method for disaster risk assessment. The results indicate that the methodology is effective and practical; thus, it has the potential to forecast the flood risk in flood risk management. We hope that by conducting such risk analysis, the impact of flood disasters can be mitigated in the future.