Valuing regional geoscientific data acquisition programmes: addressing issues of quantification,uncertainty and risk

Geological surveys worldwide are involved with research in support of sustainable mineral resource development.The socio-economic benefits to be derived from these activities, however, continue to raise organisational and government sector questions. Fundamental questions include whether or not the resources committed are appropriate and in economic balance with the total benefits to be derived. Another question concerns the degree to which such services should be funded by the community at large. These questions in turn raise important issues regarding the role and cost of geological surveys, the impact of their services, and how they should maximise community benefit from their activities and expertise. To assess the value of geoscientific information,standard valuation processes need to be modified. This paper reports on a methodology designed to quantify the 'worth' of programmes upgrading regional geoscientific infrastructure. An interdisciplinary approach is used to measure the impact of geoscientific information using quantitative resource assessment, computer-based mineral potential modelling, statistical analysis and risk quantification to model decision-processes and assess the impact of additional data. These modelling stages are used to address problems of complexity,uncertainty and credibility in the valuation of geoscientific data. A case study demonstrates the application of the methodology to generate a dollar value for current regional data upgrade programmes in the Geological Survey of Queensland. The results obtained are used for strategic planning of future data acquisition programmes aimed at supporting mineral resource management and stimulating effective exploration activity.     

Tools for Groundwater Protection Planning: An Example from McHenry County, Illinois, USA

/ This paper presents an approach for producing aquifer sensitivity maps from three-dimensional geologic maps, called stack-unit maps. Stack-unit maps depict the succession of geologic materials to a given depth, and aquifer sensitivity maps interpret the successions according totheir ability to transmit potential contaminants. Using McHenry County, Illinois, as a case study, stack-unit maps and an aquifer sensitivity assessment were made to help land-use planners, public health officials, consultants, developers, and the public make informed decisions regarding land use. A map of aquifer sensitivity is important for planning because the county is one of the fastest growing counties in the nation, and highly vulnerable sand and gravel aquifers occur within 6 m of ground surface over 75% of its area. The aquifer sensitivity map can provide guidance to regulators seeking optimal protection of groundwater resources where these resources are particularly vulnerable. In addition, the map can be used to help officials direct waste-disposal and industrial facilities and other sensitive land-use practices to areas where the least damage is likely to occur, thereby reducing potential future liabilities. KEY WORDS: Geologic mapping; Groundwater; Aquifers; Aquifer sensitivity; Land-use planning     

Geodiversity Assessment of Paraná State (Brazil): An Innovative Approach

Geodiversity is considered as the natural range of geological, geomorphological, and soil features, including their assemblages, relationships, properties, interpretations, and systems. A method developed for the quantitative assessment of geodiversity was applied to Paraná, a Brazilian state with an area of about 200,000 km². The method is based on the overlay of a grid over different maps at scales ranging from 1/500,000 to 1/650,000, with the final Geodiversity Index the sum of five partial indexes calculated on a 25 × 25 km grid. The partial indexes represent the main components of geodiversity, including geology (stratigraphy and lithology), geomorphology, paleontology, and soils. The fifth partial index covers mineral occurrences of geodiversity, such precious stones and metals, energy and industrial minerals, mineral waters, and springs. The Geodiversity Index takes the form of an isoline map that can be used as a tool in land-use planning, particularly in identifying priority areas for conservation, management, and use of natural resources at the state level.     

Towards Participatory Geographic Information Systems for community-based environmental decision making

This article discusses the potential of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to become an information technology enabling groups of people to participate in decisions shaping their communities and promoting sustainable use of natural resources. It explains the concept of participation in the context of planning and decision making. In this context Participatory GIS (PGIS) offers tools that can be used to help the public become meaningfully involved in decision making processes affecting their communities. Following an overview of research on PGIS and its current status the article presents two recent studies of PGIS in water resource planning; one involving the use of computer generated maps representing simple information structures and the other involving the use of more sophisticated information tools. The synthesis of both studies provides the bases for discussing the prospects of PGIS to empower citizens in making decisions about their communities and resources.     

River pollution from non-point sources: a new simplified method of assessment

Assessment of the pollution of water bodies from non-point sources is a complex data- and time-consuming task. The potential non-point pollution index (PNPI), is a new tool designed to assess the global pressure exerted on rivers and other surface water bodies by different land uses. The main feature of PNPI is the wide availability of its input data. Very detailed input maps, often lacking over many areas, are not needed for PNPI calculation. As a consequence of the input data used, the modelling of physical reality and of processes is heavily simplified. The authors counterbalanced such a simplification using an 'expert system' approach. The system bypasses the accurate representation of the physical reality to assess globally the pollution potential of different land uses according to the judgement of scientists. The scientific community proposes many models for depicting the dynamics of pollutants coming from diffuse sources. Most of them can be grouped into two broad categories: statistical models and physically based models. PNPI belongs to neither of the above-mentioned groups. PNPI is a GIS-based, watershed-scale tool designed to inform decision makers and public opinion about the potential environmental impacts of different land management scenarios. PNPI applies the multicriteria technique to pollutant dynamics and water quality. The pressure exerted on water bodies by diffuse pollution coming from land units is expressed as a function of three indicators: land use, run-off and distance from the river network. They are calculated from land use data, geological maps and a digital elevation model (DEM). The weights given to different land uses and to the three indicators were set according to experts' evaluations and allow calculation of the value of the PNPI for each node of a grid representing the watershed; the higher the PNPI of the cell, the greater the potential impact on the river network. The output of the calculation is presented in the form of maps that highlight areas that are more likely to produce pollution. Last, possibilities, strategies and results of the validation of the PNPI are described. In the authors' view, the explicit link between land use and potential pollution on which PNPI is based, together with its high communication potential, make it particularly interesting for a participatory and integrated approach to land management and environmental protection.     

Optimal spatial resolution for collection of ground data and multi-sensor image mapping of a soil erosion cover factor

Military training activities disturb ground and vegetation cover of landscapes and increases potential soil erosion. To monitor the dynamics of soil erosion, there is an important need for an optimal sampling design in which determining the optimal spatial resolutions in terms of size of sample plots used for the collection of ground data and the size of pixels for mapping. Given a sample size, an optimal spatial resolution should be cost-efficient in both sampling costs and map accuracy. This study presents a spatial variability-based method for that purpose and compared it with the traditional methods in a study area in which a soil erosion cover factor was sampled and mapped with multiple plot sizes and multi-sensor images. The results showed that the optimal spatial resolutions obtained using the spatial variability-based method were 12 and 20m for years 1999 and 2000, respectively, and were consistent with those using the traditional methods. Moreover, the most appropriate spatial resolutions using the high-resolution images were also consistent with those using ground sample data, which provides a potential to use the high-resolution images instead of ground data to determine the optimal spatial resolutions before sampling. The most appropriate spatial resolutions above were then verified in terms of cost-efficiency which was defined as the product of sampling cost and map error using ordinary kriging without images and sequential Gaussian co-simulation with images to generate maps.     

SOJUZKARTA offers geodesy and cartography services

SOJUZKARTA is the official Soviet foreign trade association that sells geodesy and cartography services to international markets. The organization inter alia provides remote sensing photographs, undertakes natural resource cadastresurveys, provides remote sensing for the exploration for oil, gas, ore and other natural deposits, provides consultancy and training services and prepares topographic maps. Many of these services are provided to developing countries and this paper gives several examples of the use of its services by such countries.     

Locational Errors in Maps from Environmental Surveys and Their Implications for Information Extraction

1.Information on all maps, including those which depict characters of the natural environment, is subject to locational error. 2.Locational errors on field-sketched maps are attributable to inaccuracies both in the base map itself and in the method of locating and recording features onto the base map. 3.Two main sources of error associated with field sketch mapping were quantified using the River Corridor Survey maps as an example. First, channel widths are routinely exaggerated on these maps to allow recording of in-channel features. Distortions of river bank length of the order of 25% were shown to arise from a four-fold exaggeration of the width of a sinuous channel. Second, discrepancies in feature location of the order of 20% were found along a 500 m river stretch, although errors could be reduced to approximately 2% if undistorted, large-scale base maps were used. 4.An abundance scale appropriate to the inherent locational inaccuracy was devised to extract semi-quantitative information from River Corridor Surveys recorded on distorted base maps. Application of this scale to 29 River Corridor Survey maps of a 14·5 km river corridor produced a useful representation of environmental gradients within the corridor. 5.With the increasing potential to integrate and analyse environmental information within large computer databases including Geographic Information Systems, it is essential that the level of accuracy is recognised and quantified so that the errors can be allowed for in the development of methods of extracting information from the maps.     

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.     

Urbanization and the Loss of Resource Lands in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

We made use of land cover maps, and land use change associated with urbanization, to provide estimates of the loss of natural resource lands (forest, agriculture, and wetland areas) across the 168,000 km² Chesapeake Bay watershed. We conducted extensive accuracy assessments of the satellite-derived maps, most of which were produced by us using widely available multitemporal Landsat imagery. The change in urbanization was derived from impervious surface area maps (the built environment) for 1990 and 2000, from which we estimated the loss of resource lands that occurred during this decade. Within the watershed, we observed a 61% increase in developed land (from 5,177 to 8,363 km²). Most of this new development (64%) occurred on agricultural and grasslands, whereas 33% occurred on forested land. Some smaller municipalities lost as much as 17% of their forest lands and 36% of their agricultural lands to development, although in the outlying counties losses ranged from 0% to 1.4% for forests and 0% to 2.6% for agriculture. Fast-growing urban areas surrounded by forested land experienced the most loss of forest to impervious surfaces. These estimates could be used for the monitoring of the impacts of development across the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and the approach has utility for other regions nationwide. In turn, the results and the approach can help jurisdictions set goals for resource land protection and acquisition that are consistent with regional restoration goals.     

Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.     

Assessing state-wide biodiversity in the Florida Gap analysis project

The Florida Gap (Fl-Gap) project provides an assessment of the degree to which native animal species and natural communities are or are not represented in existing conservation lands. Those species and communities not adequately represented in areas being managed for native species constitute 'gaps' in the existing network of conservation lands. The United States Geological Survey Gap Analysis Program is a national effort and so, eventually, all 50 states will have completed it. The objective of Fl-Gap was to provide broad geographic information on the status of terrestrial vertebrates, butterflies, skippers and ants and their respective habitats to address the loss of biological diversity. To model the distributions and potential habitat of all terrestrial species of mammals, breeding birds, reptiles, amphibians, butterflies, skippers and ants in Florida, natural land cover was mapped to the level of dominant or co-dominant plant species. Land cover was classified from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery and auxiliary data such as the national wetlands inventory (NWI), soils maps, aerial imagery, existing land use/land cover maps, and on-the-ground surveys. Wildlife distribution models were produced by identifying suitable habitat for each species within that species' range. Mammalian models also assessed a minimum critical area required for sustainability of the species' population. Wildlife species richness was summarized against land stewardship ranked by an area's mandates for conservation protection.     

Definition of Management Zones for Enhancing Cultivated Land Conservation Using Combined Spatial Data

The loss of cultivated land has increasingly become an issue of regional and national concern in China. Definition of management zones is an important measure to protect limited cultivated land resource. In this study, combined spatial data were applied to define management zones in Fuyang city, China. The yield of cultivated land was first calculated and evaluated and the spatial distribution pattern mapped; the limiting factors affecting the yield were then explored; and their maps of the spatial variability were presented using geostatistics analysis. Data were jointly analyzed for management zone definition using a combination of principal component analysis with a fuzzy clustering method, two cluster validity functions were used to determine the optimal number of cluster. Finally one-way variance analysis was performed on 3,620 soil sampling points to assess how well the defined management zones reflected the soil properties and productivity level. It was shown that there existed great potential for increasing grain production, and the amount of cultivated land played a key role in maintaining security in grain production. Organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus, elevation, thickness of the plow layer, and probability of irrigation guarantee were the main limiting factors affecting the yield. The optimal number of management zones was three, and there existed significantly statistical differences between the crop yield and field parameters in each defined management zone. Management zone I presented the highest potential crop yield, fertility level, and best agricultural production condition, whereas management zone III lowest. The study showed that the procedures used may be effective in automatically defining management zones; by the development of different management zones, different strategies of cultivated land management and practice in each zone could be determined, which is of great importance to enhance cultivated land conservation, stabilize agricultural production, promote sustainable use of cultivated land and guarantee food security.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

WATERSHED PLANNING FOR ACID MINE DRAINAGE ABATEMENT1

Acid drainage from abandoned mines is a widespread problem in old mining regions. Agencies seeking to abate it face the prospect of dealing with hundreds of potential abatement projects, stretching decades into the future. A systematic regional analysis is necessary to establish locations, objectives, priorities, and phasing of such projects. The U.S. Bureau of Mines developed a novel procedure for abatement planning in the 420 square mile Blacklick Creek Watershed in Pennsylvania. The plan sought to direct abatement projects toward pollution sources where degradation was worst and adverse effects greatest. It established abatement priorities by comparing the “supply” of sources to be reclaimed (the degrees of old mines' water quality degradation) with the “demand” for abatement to be done (the natural and cultural values represented by the region's demography, land use and other non-mining characteristics). Matrices were used to define the relationships among mining and non-mining factors; maps were developed to show the geographic distribution of the conclusions. The locations, priorities, and phasing of abatement objectives shown on the maps should provide guidance for any abatement effort, no matter what type of technology is applied to achieve the objectives. Over the many years in which abatement projects are to be performed in the Watershed, the plan can be used to define, coordinate, and establish priorities for the projects in a manner that can result in maximum abatement benefits from the application of limited funds.     

Public perceptions on the acceptance of geological storage of carbon dioxide and information influencing the acceptance

Public acceptance will be important for the implementation of the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂). The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the general public perceives this storage and the factors crucial for its acceptance. Further, this study attempts to analyze and evaluate what kind of information would influence the public acceptance and how. In order to evaluate them, questionnaire surveys concerning the acceptance of CO₂ geological storage were conducted among Japanese university students. The questionnaire was designed under the assumption that there were five important factors with regard to the acceptance: risk perception, benefit perception, trust, and two perceptions relating to human interference with the environment (one each for CO₂ geological storage and global warming). The questionnaire also investigated the effects of two kinds of information supplied: on natural analogues and on field demonstrations of CO₂ storage. The responses were analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis, and the dynamic changes in the perceptions resulting from the supplied information were analyzed. The analysis results include the following: the five factors explained the acceptance very well (>83%), the benefit perception was primarily important for determining public acceptance, and information on the natural analogues decreased the risk perception greatly.     

Regional climatic mapping as a tool for sustainable development

In the framework of an EU project on sustainable village development in China (SUCCESS), the natural climate resource was evaluated. Climate is seen as a potential for sustainability, an improvement of social life, agricultural production and reduction of air pollution problems. In this respect, thermal comfort conditions, microclimates and ventilation patterns were studied in seven Chinese villages and climate maps were drawn. Following planning recommendations, they can be transferred to decision-makers for their village development. In this framework, the paper presents a general methodology of urban climate mapping, carried out in China, applicable to all countries and climates.     

Integrating Landscape Analysis and Planning: A Multi-Scale Approach for Oriented Management of Tourist Recreation

Tourism and landscape are interdependent concepts. Nature- and culture-based tourism are now quite well developed activities and can constitute an excellent way of exploiting the natural resources of certain areas, and should therefore be considered as key objectives in landscape planning and management in a growing number of countries. All of this calls for careful evaluation of the effects of tourism on the territory. This article focuses on an integrated spatial method for landscape analysis aimed at quantifying the relationship between preferences of visitors and landscape features. The spatial expression of the model relating types of leisure and recreational preferences to the potential capacity of the landscape to meet them involves a set of maps showing degrees of potential visitor satisfaction. The method constitutes a useful tool for the design of tourism planning and management strategies, with landscape conservation as a reference.