UNCTAD's integrated programme for commodities: Economic implications and Europe's response

This paper discusses some major economic problems raised by proposals towards a new international commodity policy. The author analyses the economic implications of commodity price stabilization and price raising, and focuses on the questions of operationality of the IPC and on the alleged merits of a common financing of individual buffer stocks. He discusses financing schemes compensating for fluctuations of export earnings, and finally points to a number of areas in which Europe could make a constructive contribution to mitigate the commodity problem.     

The integrated programme for commodities: An assessment of negotiations on minerals and metals

No agreement has yet emerged from the negotiations on mineral commodities held under the Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC), and there is little, if any, prospect for one in the near future. This article examines the reasons for this standstill and the underlying assumptions on which the IPC is based. The following points are raised: the premise that problems of individual commodities are mutually exclusive and can be dealt with in a single framework of measures is shown to be doubtful; the principle of a commodity-by-commodity approach can no longer remain unchallenged; and structural flaws in the negotiating machinery are manifest. However, results of negotiations have not been entirely negative: the need for two-tier preparatory negotiations has been accepted and a case for a permanent consultative body, perhaps covering several commodities, has been made out. Lack of substantive reciprocity, hence political discord, remains the stumbling-block.     

NON-FUEL MINERALS AND THE INTEGRATED PROGRAMME FOR COMMODITIES

The paper reviews progress in the individual commodity negotiations for non-fuel minerals covered by the Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC). Given the minimal progress to date, the author reconsiders the objectives of the IPC to gauge the extent to which they meet the needs of countries engaged in mineral production or trade. It is suggested that the major focus of the IPC be towards price stability, with less attention to other aspects of market instability and other market problems. For this reason, the IPC discussions have failed to focus on such major issues of concern in the mineral sector as measures necessary to guarantee adequate supplies of minerals over the long-term, the financing of the required investments, the expansion of production by developing countries and the securing of price levels sufficient to generate appropriate returns on capital employed. Cet article est consacré à l'étude des progrès accomplis en matière de négociations individuelles sur les produits de base concernant les minéraux non-combustibles qui figurent au Programme intégré pour les produits de base. Etant donné les résultats peu concluants qui ont été enregistrés, ‘auteur examine à nouveau les objectifs du programme pour évaluer jusqu’ à quel point ils répondent aux besoins des pays engagés dans la production ou le commerce de minéraux. Selon cet article, ‘accent principal du programme a été mis sur’ instabilité en matière de prix au détriment d'autres aspects de 'instabilité du marché et d'autres problèmes connexes. De telles discussions ont éludé les points d'intérét majeurs du secteur minier, à savoir, les mesures nécessaires à assurer à long terme des approvisionnements suffisants en minéraux, le financement des investissements nécessaires, une participation plus active des pays en développement à 'expansion de la production et le maintien de niveaux de prix susceptibles de créer des profits suffisants sur le capital investi. Este artículo revisa los progresos alcanzados en la negociación individual de minerales no combustibles cubiertos por el programs ‘Integrated Programme for Commodities’ (IPC). Dado el progreso mínimo presente, el autor reconsidera los objectivos de la IPC para apreciar el grado en que estos objectivos se ajustan a las necesidades de los países dedicados a la producción y comercio de minerales. Se sugiero que el IPC enfoca su acción a la estabilidad de precios, con menor atención a otros aspectos de inestabilidad y otros problemas de mercado. Por esta razón las discuciones de IPC no han considerado asuntos de tanta importancia en el sector minero tales como las medidas para garantizar suministros adecuados de minerales por largos plazos, el financimiento de las inversiones requeridas, la expansión de la producción por los países en desarollo y la garantía de niveles de precios suficientes para generar retornos adecuados del capital invertido.     

World demand for cobalt: An econometric study

This article analyses the world demand for cobalt. It estimates short- and long-run elasticities with respect to price, activity and in some cases with respect to substitute-complement variables. For the USA these estimates have been obtained for all the important end-use categories. Aggregate elasticities are estimated for Japan, West Germany, France and for the non-communist world (excluding the USA). The appendix to the paper models price setting in the cobalt market and presents two simple simulations conducted on the world cobalt market.     

Product charges: An instrument for increased recycling in the UK

This article draws attention to a policy which has largely been ignored by the UK government. In certain instances, taxation may be used to correct defects caused by environmental pollution, through the price mechanism. Frequently, social costs are not included in the price goods with the result that distortion occurs in the optimum allocation of resources. Taxes can be used to adjust prices automatically and efficiently, thereby correcting the misallocation. The paper first introduces this concept theoretically, as it applies to waste disposal and recyling, and then considers how this theory might in practice apply to the UK.     

World copper market, 1973–1982, and international stabilization policies

This article critically examines international price stabilization policy in relation to the main features of the world copper market and the structural changes that have affected the industry in the decade up to 1982. The first section summarizes the main features of the world copper market, briefly discussing the principal structural changes; the second part examines the recent pattern of investment in copper and changes in ownership of some copper producing companies resulting from the need for improved cash flows due to the adverse effects of the recession; and the third part analyses the practical and theoretical issues relating to the question of price instability. A number of formidable problems are likely to arise from such price stabilization policies and it is concluded that it is because of these difficulties that the policies have not been implemented. Consequently, international commodity agreements designed to minimize or avoid price instability have proved difficult to conclude. New questions on which consensus is likely should be examined to promote intergovernmental co-operation, and hence market stability. With that end in view, this article lists some new questions that could form the basis of an agenda for exploratory intergovernmental discussions on copper.     

基于GPRS的环境在线监测系统设计

介绍了在Delphi环境下,利用Socket控件,通过GPRS网络实现GPRS DTU和上位机之问的通信;采用力控PcAuto组态软件设计上位机监控画面;利用Dbcom控件,实现通信程序和力控数据的共享,对环境监测数据进行采集管理。     

Economic rationale for Canada's future uranium policy

After the dramatic increase in prices for uranium over the 1972–1975 period, prices have declined in real terms. This article examines the future supply, demand and price trends for uranium, and predicts that a situation of excess supply will result in the 1980s, bringing a continuing decline in real prices, unless Canada and other net exporters, most importantly Australia, agree to restrict supplies in order to maintain the price of uranium at its present level in real terms. Such a policy would have substantial benefits for Canada and other net exporters of uranium.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices

The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.     

小城镇基准地价更新方法研究

基准地价评估及更新是目前土地管理的一项重要和经常性的工作。针对小城镇的土地利用特点，对小城镇土地定级估价更新中的地价样本祷点、土地级别调整、基准地价更新评估等方面进行了研究，选择级别界线修订法更新小城镇土地级别，并在此基础上探索出适合小城镇特点的基准地价更新方法。     

Industrial pollution and social deprivation: Evidence and complexity in evaluating and responding to environmental inequality

The local impacts of industrial pollution can take many forms and—whilst uncertain in their scale, severity and distribution—are widely recognised. The question of who in society potentially experiences these impacts through living near to emission sources has been little explored, at least in the UK. This paper reports on a study carried out for the Environment Agency, which examined the distribution of sites coming within the Industrial Pollution Control (IPC) regime against patterns of deprivation. Our analysis provides evidence of a socially unequal distribution of IPC sites in England, with sites disproportionately located and clustered together in deprived areas and near to deprived populations. In discussing these results we emphasise the methodological limitations of this form of environmental justice analysis and the crucial differences between proximity, risk and impact. We also consider the distinction between inequality and injustice and the difficult policy questions which arise when evaluating evidence of environmental inequality, including potential grounds for policy intervention.     

Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?

Testing for the existence of downward trends in real commodity prices has been the focus of several studies since the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis was formulated back in 1950. In this article, we focus on annual and monthly series of various commodity categories and consider alternative price deflators. Based on the methodology of Harvey et al. (2010), which is robust to the order of integration of the time series, we conclude that the time frequency and the price deflators play a key role when testing for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. For instance, at an annual frequency (1900–2003, 1900–2008), it becomes considerably more likely to support it when deflating by the unadjusted US CPI-all items than when deflating by the Manufactures Unit Value (MUV) Index or the Historical Price Index of Manufactures (HPIM). This finding is in agreement with the Svedberg and Tilton (2006) discussion on the CPI's overestimation of inflation and the measurement of the real price of copper. When dealing with monthly data (January 1957–December 2010), our results show that real prices tend not to reject the null hypothesis of a trendless series, except when deflating by the PPI-Crude Materials and, to a lesser extent, by the HPIM.     

Capital allowance schemes for mining projects in LDCs

The capital allowance structure for mining projects in developing countries affects the supply price of investment by determining the payback period, reinvestment and the timing of government receipts. Using the capital allowance structures of Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, Papua New Guinea and Malaysia, the article develops a financial model and examines the effect of capital allowances on foreign investor and host government cash flows under various cost-price conditions. The study stresses the importance to governments of making accelerated depreciation a flexible tool to trade off against other elements in the fiscal package. From the government viewpoint, faster write-offs of capital are preferable to a tax holiday. The article places particular emphasis on evaluating the relationship between capital allowances, income tax and a rent resource tax.     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis

In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.We welcome these insights, which should improve and make easier efforts to estimate correctly real commodity price trends over the long run. We would stress, however, that it is still important to correct for the biases in inflation indices, notwithstanding the failure of difference stationary models to obtain long-run real price trends (both corrected and uncorrected) significantly different from zero.     

论城市环境基础设施市场化运营中的政府规制

本文分别从市场准入、价格、服务质量以及风险等方面，对城市环境基础设施市场化运营中的政府规制进行了具体分析。     

The international natural rubber agreement 1979

The International Natural Rubber Agreement (INRA) 1979 is the first, and so far the only, commodity agreement to emerge from the negotiations under the Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC). The agreement is examined in the context of the issues relating to international stock and as an indicator for future development. The author concludes that while the principle of joint responsibility for financing international stock has been for the first time accepted in INRA, this has been achieved at the cost of reducing the scope of the regulatory mechanism, and that the single-instrument pattern that the agreement has adopted may not be suitable or acceptable in other commodities.     

The significance of futures trading in minerals and oil

Futures trading has been introduced for aluminium and oil in recent years and the range of contracts available on various minerals and oil products continues to widen. Concern has been expressed by producers of a number of minerals, including nickel and platinum, that the introduction of futures trading may introduce a speculative element to price determination that will create inappropriate or excessively volatile prices. It is the purpose of this article to analyse the role of futures trading in relation to trade in underlying commodities in general and especially for trade in minerals and oil. Evidence from oil and platinum markets, in particular, is adduced and examined in the light of earlier evidence of the influence of futures trading on underlying commodities. The contribution of futures trading is examined in detail and conclusions are reached on the significance of futures trading for minerals and oil.     

不同尺度的区域城镇土地基准地价平衡研究

区域基准地价平衡是区域城镇基准地价评估的重要内容，对地价管理具有重要的现实意义。分析了不同尺度基准地价平衡的内涵、实质及不同尺度平衡的机理，运用多种方法从宏观尺度的城镇间基准地价平衡、中观尺度的土地级别之间基准地价平衡、微观尺度地块间的区片价平衡进行了研究。以广西县级市——桂平市为例，对桂平市所辖的28个城镇基准地价平衡进行了实例研究，为区域城镇基准地价平衡提供了实用的模式与方法，为培育、发展城镇土地市场奠定了基础。     

工程项目投标报价优化方法

随着市场经济体制的建立与完善，投标竞争越来越激烈，要在投标竞争中取胜，制定合理的投标报价策略就显得尤为重要，本文探讨了运用概率分析方法，针对不同的竞争对手进行投标报价的技术与方法。