Climate stability and behavioural change: the limitations of economic and regulatory instruments

Stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, as proposed by the 1992 Earth Summit, implies massive behavioural changes by firms and consumers. Case studies of three key sectors—domestic space heating, domestic appliances, and personal transport—suggest that neither economic instruments nor regulatory controls would, in themselves, be sufficient to bring about the necessary investment in energy efficient products and processes. Attention is focused on specific features of the UK economy which inhibit energy conservation, such as the price sensitive nature of UK markets for consumer durables and the pervasive influence of short‐termism on business calculations.     

Fuel poverty and vulnerability in the EU low-carbon transition: the case of renewable electricity

The European Union (EU) and member states alike are following a tradition of addressing fuel poverty and vulnerability at the point of purchase by final consumers by seeking to influence the impact of income, energy price and the built environment on the ability of household consumers to access the energy that they need. By focusing on the conditions of energy transmission in the most rapidly growing renewable electricity sector in the UK – offshore wind – this paper aims to question whether the regulatory socio-technological framing of renewable electricity transmission is reproducing conditions for fuel poverty and vulnerability in the UK. By drawing a comparison with renewable electricity transmission in Bulgaria, this paper argues that the problem might be symptomatic of the EU as a whole. While not arguing against the proliferation of renewable electricity and its importance in meeting the 2020 targets, this paper calls for expanding the scope of fuel poverty alleviation policy throughout the whole renewable electricity supply chain, building on Helm's argument that energy companies at the middle of the supply chain are better suited to deliver fuel policy.     

An empirical analysis of productivity: Welsh coal industry

A non-homogeneous variable-elasticity-of-substitution production function is estimated using data for the Welsh coal industry. From 1961 to 1976 output declined, returns to scale increased and the elasticity of substitution fell. At the end of the period, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour in the coal industry is still large and there may be room for greater employment in the industry at a time of high and rising unemployment, subject to other overall considerations. While marginal productivity of labour in physical terms has been stagnant, price rises in the industry in recent years have been in excess of what was needed to finance wage settlements. Perhaps price rises granted to the coal industry by the UK government were justified, but they require closer scrutiny.     

Is there a common metals demand curve?

Previous studies have identified a single, stable and strong correlation between the price of metals and their consumption, such that low priced metals are always used in large amounts and visa versa. Some have interpreted this as evidence that metals share a common demand curve so that a single price elasticity of demand exists. This paper reviews and tests this hypothesis against a number of other possible explanations, including the idea that the relationship is an empirical curiosity. Modifications to the demand curve were tested by allowing metals to have different intercepts and price elasticities. The results from this analysis suggest that metals do not share a common demand curve and that the correlation identified between the price of metals and their level of consumption is an empirical curiosity. As such, the singular price elasticities published in past papers should not be used for assessing future rates of metals substitution.     

Optimal production and pricing policy for a closed loop system

A closed loop system is investigated, in which the manufacturer has two channels to satisfy the demand: manufacturing brand-new products and remanufacturing returns into as-new products. Remanufactured products have no difference from brand-new products and can be sold in the same market at the same price. The demand is uncertain and sensitive to the selling price, while the return is also stochastic and sensitive to the acquisition price of used products. A mathematical model is developed to maximize the overall profit of the system by simultaneously determining the selling price, the production quantities for brand-new products and remanufactured products, and the acquisition price of used products. Some properties of the problem are analyzed, based on which a solution procedure is presented. Through a numerical example, the impacts of the uncertainties of both demand and return on the production plan, selling price, and the acquisition price of used products are analyzed.     

Evaluating a small deposit next to an economically viable gold mine in West Africa from the points of view of the mining company,the government and the local community

This paper addresses the question of evaluating how much the different stakeholders stand to gain from a mining project. By carefully analysing the breakdown of the cash-flows generated, we were able to estimate the amounts received by the local community and by the national community (outside the mining area), the taxes and royalties received by the government and the profits made by the mining company. A real options framework was used to take account of the inherent uncertainty on the commodity price and the reserves, and the operating flexibility (that is, the possibility for the company to stop mining if the commodity price drops and/or the reserves prove to be lower than that had been envisaged). A synthetic case-study of a gold mine in West Africa was used to illustrate how this procedure could be applied in practice. By using the real option framework we were able to envisage scenarios for developing an extension to a deposit as a function of future values of the commodity price. The procedure proposed should provide governments and NGOs with more objective data for making policy decisions.     

土地价格评估体系的整合

在介绍宗地价格评估、基准地价评估、地价指数编制和地价动态监测体系建立等我国现行土地价格评估体系的基础上,分析了该评估体系存在的问题,提出了土地价格评估体系整合的概念及实施的建议.     

Damage costs of nitrogen fertilizer in Europe and their internalization

This paper estimates the environmental impacts and damage costs (‘external costs’) of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and discusses options for reducing these impacts, including their consequences for farmers and for producers of fertilizer. The damage costs of the fertilizer life cycle that could be estimated are large, about 0.3 [euro]/kg_N (compared to the current market price of about 0.5 [euro]/kg_N); much of that is due to global warming by N₂O and CO₂ emissions during fertilizer production and N₂O emissions from fertilized fields. Policy options for internalizing these costs are discussed, and the consequences of reduced fertilizer input on crop yield are explored. If the damage costs were internalized by a pollution tax or tradable permits that are auctioned by the government, the economic consequences would be heavy, with a large revenue loss for farmers. However, if it is internalized by tradable permits that are given out free, the revenue loss for farmers is small. The loss for fertilizer producers increases linearly with the amount of external cost that is internalized, by contrast to the loss for farmers which increases quadratically but is very small for a damage cost of 0.3 [euro]/kg_N. Expressed as a change in the fertilizer-dependent part of the farmers' revenue (crop yield × crop price – fertilizer used× fertilizer price), the decrease is less than 0.5% for most crops; the losses are larger only for crops with low [euro]/ha revenue. Averaged over wheat, barley, potatoes, sugar beet and rapeseed, the loss to farmers is about 0.1% in the UK and 0.4% in Sweden. The revenue loss for fertilizer producers is larger, about 8% in the UK and 14% in Sweden.     

Modeling protected species as an undesirable output: the case of sea turtle interactions in Hawaii's longline fishery

Interactions with sea turtles have occurred at an alarming rate in swordfish longlining in Hawaii in recent years and various regulations have been put forward to protect sea turtles. In order to understand the cost of reducing sea turtle interactions, methods have been developed to derive the shadow price of sea turtle bycatch based on fisher's welfare loss from a specific regulation. This paper illustrates an alternative method of calculating temporal and trip-specific cost of sea turtle bycatch reduction. The advantages of this method lie in the computation of shadow price without assuming specific regulation implementation and its relatively modest data requirement. A parametric output distance function is used to simultaneously model desirable and undesirable catches. Using the duality argument, the revenue-related shadow price of sea turtle bycatch can be derived from the estimated distance function. Average shadow price of sea turtle bycatch for the period 1991-1999 is estimated to be US $30873 in 1991 dollars. Average shadow prices of sea turtle bycatch by trip characteristics, such as fishing year, trip type and location are also estimated. Such information can be useful for policy makers to analyze tradeoffs and make appropriate policy decisions.     

Managing Congestion: Economics of Price and Lottery Rationing

It is not uncommon for the carrying capacity for congestible facilities to be estimated before the allocation method is known. This paper shows how efficient capacity differs between two competing resource allocation mechanisms, one which is efficient (price) and one which is fair (lottery). The welfare theoretic implications of adopting lottery allocation rather than price allocation are illustrated from the perspectives of economic efficiency and the benefits obtained by resource users and suppliers. It is found that risk-neutral resource users will always prefer lottery allocation to price allocation. While price allocation is efficient, it is never in risk-neutral resource users» interests to have price allocation imposed. Conclusions are tested using a linear constant crowding demand function, in which case it is found that the efficient capacity for lottery rationing exceeds the efficient capacity where price is to be used to allocate a congestible resource. Objectives may be better met by joint use of allocation mechanisms, the implications of which are investigated using the linear demand model.     

An economic modelling approach to the design and delivery of sustainable waste minimisation clubs: Prospects in the new policy framework

Since the early 1990s, waste minimisation clubs have been important sources of information for industry in the UK on clean technology and sustainable waste management practice. Despite this contribution, concern has grown about the declining number of clubs, their performance and the likelihood that they will continue to play a key role in national policy.This paper examines the evidence available and provides estimates of how the numbers varied in England since the first clubs were formed. The results presented indicate that, after initial expansion, numbers went into decline. The paper then explores, using economic theory, why this pattern should have developed and suggests it to be a function of how clubs were designed and managed. The results of the analysis are used to propose alterations in how future clubs could be designed so that they continue to contribute effectively to the development of sustainable waste management in UK industry. These lessons are of value to policy in both the UK and other countries considering the development of this important tool of waste strategy. The paper concludes with a number of suggestions for future research.     

Long-term iron ore price modeling: Marginal costs vs. incentive price

The paper studies and applies the approaches to forecast long-term (LT) real prices of iron ore. This price is crucial for valuation of investments in Greenfield iron ore projects on the horizon of more than 5 years. The forecast is obtained by three different approaches which are usually used by investment bank analysts: marginal costs approach and 2 approaches based on calculation of incentive price. The paper concludes that there has been a structural shift on the iron ore market and LT iron ore prices will be higher by 20–30% than the average of industry forecasters suggest. This is related to the 2 key factors which were taken into account in this study—depletion of existing iron ore deposits and targeted return on investments for new projects. In addition, escalated industry costs inflation is claimed to be the factor which will bolster nominal iron ore prices at high levels in the long-term. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, confidence interval for future iron ore price was estimated.     

基于双系统理论的消费者价格判断决策模型

参考价格理论是构建价格判断模型的传统理论,其价格判断模型是一种典型的推理性模型.根据双系统理论,人们的决策应是推理性和直觉性两类过程的交互作用,心理账户理论正是描述直觉性决策的基本理论之一.构建了基于参考价格与心理账户的双系统价格判断决策模型,对不同心理账户数据进行分析发现,被试者的目标价格决策过程具有显著差异.     

The effect of recycling price uncertainty on municipal waste management choices

This paper analyzes the effect of price uncertainty and irreversible investment on the decision of municipalities to switch from landfill waste disposal to recycling by developing a model to predict recycling adoption behavior and applying it to empirical data. It is shown that uncertainty regarding the price of recycled materials may induce a risk neutral municipality to prefer landfill disposal, even when recycling is less expensive. A model is developed to describe the switching process and estimate its parameters using empirical data from 79 municipalities in Israel. The model is then used to predict municipalities' recycling adoption decisions under various assumptions regarding price uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis that price uncertainty is a major obstacle for recycling. Finally, several options for price stabilization are sketched and it is argued that these policies may be effective in establishing viable recycling markets.     

A comparison in water quality: The UK and the CIS

Summary A comparison is made of major issues relating to drinking water and river water quality in the UK and the CIS (USSR). Historical and legislative aspects are briefly reviewed. In both countries there is an imbalance between the location of fresh water sources and the distribution of the population. In each country standards are used to define water quality. These standards tend to be more exacting in the CIS. In the UK derogations are used to produce a more relaxed standard. Failure to comply with drinking water standards is common in the CIS (on average 20 percent of samples). In the UK, data are recorded on a different basis, but it appears that deviations from nitrate and pesticide standards are common. In both countries' water supplies, pollution appears to be extensive with few overall signs of significant improvement. This is attributable partly to lack of effective enforcement and weak penalties for transgressors. There is a high level of public concern regarding water quality and health in both the CIS and the UK. As a consequence there are increasing signs in each country of a national determination to implement the legislation more effectively. Needs for further actions are identified.Dr Olga Bridges was born and educated in Russia. Since coming to the UK she has held posts on Soviet Studies in various universities. Dr Bridges' early research was in attitudes to languages and nationality, but more recently it has centred on attitudes to environmental issues. To further her knowledge of scientific aspects of environmental problems, Dr Bridges is currently taking the Advanced Diploma in Environmental Practice at Farnborough College of Technology, UK.     

The United Kingdom's assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation options

The UK published its Climate Change Programme in January 1994 and was the first country to do so. The published program contains market measures, voluntary agreements, and regulation. It was established following national consultation. The program was quantified using a combination of econometric modeling (for price based measures) and bottom-up analysis. It is monitored through the National Emissions Inventory with provisional CO₂ trends updated every quarter. The program is being updated to take account of developments since its publication, including the publication of new national energy projections in March 1995.

     

WHAT PRICE,REJECT HEAT?1

ABSTRACT: Increasing energy costs encourage more efficient energy use, including the better use of reject heat from electrical generating stations. Whether it pays to use this heat depends on the price charged. There is to date no relevant market in Canada. This paper estimates lower and upper bounds on the price for reject heat as a first step in determining market feasibility. Price would then be resolved by negotiation. For the case study of Ontario greenhouses, the differential between lower and upper bounds is substantial. An assumed price resolution is consistent with profitable use of this reject heat by this greenhouse industry.     

Sustaining Technologies? Agenda 21 and UK Local Authorities' Use of the World Wide Web

The Agenda 21 treaty adopted at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development set out new goals for the provision and management of information in a sustainable society. New information and communications technologies (ICTs) have the potential to be used as tools for managing information and consequently have a role in sustainable development. This paper considers the use of ICTs to manage local information areas and the extent to which these new technologies are compatible with the broader goals of Agenda 21 such as social inclusion and public participation in decision making. The use of the World Wide Web by local authorities in the UK to manage local information and promote Agenda 21 is explored through a critique of website contents. It is concluded that, although the use of ICTs is not incompatible with the broader aims of Agenda 21, and has many possible positive applications, current use of the World Wide Web by local government in the UK does not yet fulfil this potential.     

An assessment of time series methods in metal price forecasting

The international price for metals is pivotal in the profitability equation for mining companies. If producer prices rise, assuming production levels and costs remain the same, profits are expected to increase. Accordingly, producers welcome any means by which price instability and unpredictability can be reduced. The paper analyses the ability of two user-friendly time series forecasting techniques to predict future lead and zinc prices. The conclusion is that price forecasting is difficult. It should, however, be acknowledged that whilst neither of the two models are definitive, they are useful for the mining company vis-à-vis its planning process. In particular, the results from the analysis in this paper suggest that ARIMA modelling provides marginally better forecast results than lagged forward price modelling. The methodologies employed in this paper have a broad based application to base metal forecasting by mining companies in general, that is, the applications are transferable.     

基于组件式GIS的地价评估与管理信息系统的设计与开发

结合组件式GIS技术，设计和开发了地价评估与管理信息系统。系统利用可视化工具软件Visual Basic6．0和MapX开发和实现了地价的空间信息和属性信息的存储、管理、显示、查询、操作与分析，并阐述了系统的关键技术和主要功能。系统摆脱了以往地价评估及管理信息系统所采用的单纯MIS系统模式，使办公自动化和地理信息系统融为一体，两者相结合形成图文一体化、可视化和生动化的信息系统。