Costs and benefits of commodity control

The author considers the international commodity agreement as an economic instrument, and discusses its benefits and costs with respect to price stabilization and the building-up of buffer stocks. The author asserts that there is a wide range of economic arguments that can be employed to support the case for price stabilization as a form of commodity control. However, he argues that price stabilization is not desirable in all cases, because each commodity market is unique, and there can be certain costs associated with stabilization, in addition to the beneficial aspects. The feasibility of private financing of a part of the costs of buffer stock and export quota operations is also     

The impact of commodity price risk management on the profits of a company

It is well recognized that for the producing companies hedging the commodity price using financial products like forwards or futures has become an important part of the company's production process. But apart from the direct impacts of hedging on the production and hedging costs the use of financial products affects the financing of the company: hedging the volatile commodity prices leads to a reduction of the risk premium the company has to pay for its debt capital, since hedging contributes to more confidence of the investors in the redemption of the debt. In this paper we therefore analyze this dependency of hedging and financing and derive optimal hedging extents for companies in different market situations based on a long-term model. By hedging the commodity price, companies can realize a surplus in profits. Thereby, the optimal hedging extent for a monopolist is often up to 100%, whereas for companies in a polypolistic market the optimum is always less than 100%. These results are illustrated by examples for a producing company.     

Mineral commodity stabilisation: The producers' view

The author compares the relative merits of production cuts and buffer stocks as measures for market stabilisation in mineral commodity markets. He concludes that, although under certain conditions producers may gain by building up buffer stocks at times of relatively low demand, the low global price elasticities in most minerals markets make it likely that producers' interests would usually be better served by production cuts when demand falls.     

An empirical approach to determine specific weights of driving factors for the price of commodities—A contribution to the measurement of the economic scarcity of minerals and metals

In recent years, commodity markets show a large amount of volatility and substantial price jumps, indicating an increasing economic scarcity in many cases. As this scarcity makes commodity procurement a critical issue for national economies, industry sectors and manufacturing companies, a number of criticality indices have been presented and utilized in science as well as in practice. These indices are mostly based on an aggregation of different key figures, both qualitative and quantitative. However, the weighting of the different factors is in most cases arbitrary or based on rough estimates.     

The new economic order and world mineral production and trade

World mineral production is dominated by the developed countries — the developing countries dominate production of only tin, cobalt, bauxite, and petroleum. This production pattern is largely the result of historical, political, and economic factors, and is not likely to change radically in the next decade. Apart from petroleum, there seems to be little opportunity for the formation of mineral-producer cartels, although there is considerable scope for constructive producer-consumer agreements. Given the pattern of world mineral production and trade, the developed countries would on the whole benefit more than the developing countries from price increases. The most acute present need is for new means of financing exploration and development of mineral deposits in the developing countries, and for means of redressing the worst imbalances between rich and poor nations outside of the commodity arena.     

Feasibility,forward pricing and returns: Recent developments in the literature on futures trading

In recent years the feasibility conditions for market establishment and the information value of futures markets have been central issues in futures market research. This paper first discusses recent developments under the heading of feasibility conditions, including the obsolescence of the commodity characteristics approach and the search for a comprehensive framework. Second, futures markets collect and disseminate information, and in so doing they are centres of rational price formation, and the forms of tests that have been developed to ascertain whether they perform this function efficiently are considered. Futures markets also perform a forward pricing function: their prices may be regarded as market anticipations of subsequent cash prices. 1970s' literature has addressed this question, finding differences in performance between continuous and non-continuous inventory commodities. This paper discusses the reasons for and economic implications of these results.     

国家环境经济政策进展评估报告2020

本年度国家环境经济政策进展评估报告采用实地调研法和政策分析法,对2020年我国环境经济政策进展进行了系统评估,总体结论认为环境经济政策在污染防治攻坚战和生态环境质量改善中发挥了积极作用,有效支撑服务了高质量发展。绿色财政、环境资源价格、绿色税收、生态补偿、绿色金融等政策推进取得了积极进展,但是环境经济政策体系仍不够完善,服务于生态文明建设的环境经济政策仍然存在结构性短缺,需要积极推进环保投融资、生态补偿等环境经济政策的创新运用,着力构建支撑高质量发展和高水平生态环境保护的长效机制。     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis

In his recent article on measuring the long-term trends in the real prices of primary commodities, Cuddington (2010) extends in several important respects our earlier efforts (Svedberg and Tilton, 2006) to correct real commodity price trends for biases in the Consumer Price Index and other deflators. First, he argues for a log-linear relationship between prices and time. Second, he proposes a simple and quick method for obtaining corrected price trends from the published but uncorrected estimates. Finally, he illustrates, for the case of copper and presumably for many other commodities as well, the difficulties of obtaining real price trends significantly different from zero when the log values of the price data contain a unit root, requiring the use of difference stationary models.We welcome these insights, which should improve and make easier efforts to estimate correctly real commodity price trends over the long run. We would stress, however, that it is still important to correct for the biases in inflation indices, notwithstanding the failure of difference stationary models to obtain long-run real price trends (both corrected and uncorrected) significantly different from zero.     

The interest of OECD countries in ICAs and the Common Fund

This article explains that the nature of commodity price determination and the characteristics of the link between commodity prices and prices of manufactured goods are such that they have an inflationary and recessionary impact on the world economy. Subsequently, it argues that International Commodity Price Agreements (ICAs) and the Common Fund are not only in the interest of developing countries but are also in the vital interest of developed countries. They assist in stabilizing economic activities and sustaining recovery at a higher rate of growth of output and employment in these countries. Nevertheless, to be effective for these purposes, ICAs should cover a wide range of commodities and adequate financial resources should be available to the First Account of the Common Fund.     

Brazil's mineral development: Potential and problems

Although Brazil is well endowed with natural resources, some of these are unexploited due to poor communications and political instability. The authors review present government policy and the situation with regard to oil and gas, iron ore, manganese and steel and other minerals, and conclude that Brazil has a bright economic future.     

Instability in primary commodity markets

The two principal objectives of this paper are, first, to consider the behaviour of primary commodity prices on world markets. In particular, the degree of price instability in each of 19 primary commodity markets in the period 1953–1974, and the long-run behaviour of primary commodity prices relative to the price of manufactures (‘the terms of trade’) are analysed. Secondly, measures of export earnings instability are presented which determine its degree and geographical extent. The importance of world primary commodity trade both for the developed countries as major importers and exporters and for the less developed countries as large exporters is also pointed out.     

Estimating the volatility of mining projects considering price and operating cost uncertainties

In the real option pricing model of valuation and decision making, the estimation of future volatility is a key input parameter. For traded commodities or financial assets, past volatility is used as a proxy for predictions. But, for projects, this approach is not feasible because, in most cases, historical data of traded projects are not available. As an alternate solution, it is usually assumed that project volatility is equal to that of commodity price. In order to investigate this assumption, we estimate the project volatility considering that both commodity price and operating cost evolve as a geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Results of a hypothetical gold mining project indicate that project volatility is higher than that of commodity price and it only drops to price volatility under very unrealistic industry conditions, such as very high prices or very low production costs. In addition, we find that project volatility is independent of production capacity and taxation, but depends on increments in price and cost, as well as strongly on their degree of correlation.     

Recent changes in international commodity agreements

The contents of international commodity agreements have changed from those in which open-ended intervention mechanisms regulated the market defending a normative price to those limiting intervention so as not to obscure market forces and consequently the market price. Underlying this change is the principle to which the developed countries accorded the highest priority, namely that the interests of producing and consuming countries must balance to avoid an indiscriminate transfer of resources. On the other hand, the principles which guided agreements that set a normative price were based on the grounds that the market price determined by unequal partners was unfair and that internationally agreed developmental goals implied untied and unconditional resource transfers by means of normative, higher than market, prices. These two sets of principles were incompatible. As a result negotiations were not only difficult but inconclusive. Another reason for this outcome was that the question of the cost effectiveness of market duplicating agreements based on the principle of balanced interests was unresolved. These reasons explain why commodity agreements do not figure currently in substantive discussions on North-South cooperation and why only three commodity agreements have a functional role and even of these three, one is not in force definitively.     

Oil spills on other commodities

This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960–2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through (0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11). The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong response to crude oil price. In terms of individual commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the results show that price indices, while providing useful summary statistics, they need to be supplemented by individual commodity analysis.     

VALUING IRRIGATION WATER IN PUNJAB PROVINCE,PAKISTAN: A LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Linear programming models of a representative farm in a district of Pakistan's Punjab Province are formulated for the purpose of estimating the value of irrigation water. The models provide for choices among several irrigation levels for each potential crop. Solutions of the model for several water supply situations provide the basis for approximating the total, average, and marginal values of irrigation water. Prices for important crops in Pakistan are controlled at levels below their levels elsewhere in the world, so models are specified for both financial (domestic price) and economic (world price) scenarios. The value of water to society (its economic value) is high relative to the costs of some generally available water-augmenting investments, while financial values, which measure water management and allocation incentives faced by farmers, are less than the corresponding economic values. At current water supply levels, incremental returns to added water estimated from the economic model would justify investments in water-saving or water-augmenting technologies, while such a decision would be barely attractive assuming financial prices. While present government commodity price policies may serve to protect low-income and non-farm members of the population, they also inhibit farmer investments to increase the productivity of scarce irrigation water.     

The ‘new’ economics of iron and steel

The author commences his analysis of the iron and steel industry by examining the historical background of the industry, and discusses its importance for the world economy. He examines the implications for the world industry of the successful development of the steel industry in Japan, and traces the evolution of a commodity cartel in the iron ore market, analysing the price levels of the commodity in the ‘free’ and ‘controlled’ markets. Following a discussion of the role of energy and coking coal supplies in the industry, the author examines the evolution of this industry in the less developed countries, with particular reference to the role of technology in the industry's development. He concludes that there have been important structural changes in the world industry, embraced by the concept of ‘partial demise’.     

农业水资源价值计算方法研究

农业水资源价值的计算对灌区农业用水价格的制定具有重要的意义,同时也可用于对农业用水向其它类型用水转移时所受的经济损失进行估算。因此,当前将农业用水当作商品并计算其价值逐渐成为热点,尤其是在发展中国家的大型灌区和干旱、半干旱地区。对农业水资源价值的计算方法进行了综述,总结了农业水资源价值计算的两种方法,并列举了具体的计算模型和公式,提出了农业水资源价值计算中应考虑的问题,为进一步研究农业水资源价值提供参考。     

Evaluating a small deposit next to an economically viable gold mine in West Africa from the points of view of the mining company,the government and the local community

This paper addresses the question of evaluating how much the different stakeholders stand to gain from a mining project. By carefully analysing the breakdown of the cash-flows generated, we were able to estimate the amounts received by the local community and by the national community (outside the mining area), the taxes and royalties received by the government and the profits made by the mining company. A real options framework was used to take account of the inherent uncertainty on the commodity price and the reserves, and the operating flexibility (that is, the possibility for the company to stop mining if the commodity price drops and/or the reserves prove to be lower than that had been envisaged). A synthetic case-study of a gold mine in West Africa was used to illustrate how this procedure could be applied in practice. By using the real option framework we were able to envisage scenarios for developing an extension to a deposit as a function of future values of the commodity price. The procedure proposed should provide governments and NGOs with more objective data for making policy decisions.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices

The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.     

Effects of a dollar appreciation on dollar prices in international commodity markets

The dollar-based commodity price index prepared by UNCTAD declined by 30% in the five-year period ending in January 1985. A variety of factors explains this fall. Most important among these is probably the phenomenal appreciation of the US currency. For instance, the dollar rose against the Deutschmark by 84% during that time, and UNCTAD's commodity price index shows a rise of about 30% when measured in West German money. Surely, the dollar commodity prices would have fallen far less or possibly even increased in the absence of the exchange rate shifts that were actually recorded.